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Chapter 5 SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

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Chapter 5: Conclusion, Interpretation and Discussion

Introduction.

The following chapter concludes this report. A summary of the research is presented, and findings of the study are discussed and interpreted. The significance of this research in the immediate context of El Gallo and in the field of low-income housing is examined. Recommendations for further research end the chapter.

The scope of the following conclusions is limited to the context and historical characteristics of El Gallo. Thus, applied to other situations, these conclusions may yield incorrect assumptions. Still, these conclusions are relevant to the process of dwelling evolution in progressive development projects.

5.1 Summary of Research

This study observed the process of dwelling evolution in progressive development projects. The literature review was concentrated on the process of progressive development occurring in planned sponsored projects. It was found that, based on observations of the informal settlement process, progressive development under different contextual conditions was not questioned, and its benefits were taken for granted. Studies in the area were reduced to the period of improvement up to the time when the dwelling was physically consolidated. Longer term evaluation of progressive development projects were not found.

Research was undertaken on a 27-year-old progressive development project in Venezuela. The intention was to observe the process of dwelling evolution and the kind of housing that was being produced under progressive urban development projects on a long-term basis. The case study showed dwellings built with different initial levels of user-participation. Dwelling evolution was observed in a survey sample using parameters relevant to the case study (i.e., area increase, dwelling spatial growth and plot occupation, and changes in the functional structure).

Survey dwellings followed identifiable patterns of evolution in size, spatial structure and use-layout. Patterns were affected by aspects of the surrounding context and by aspects inherent to characteristics of the initial dwelling. Consequently, different dwelling groups showed different processes of progressive development.

5.2 Discussion and Interpretation of Findings.

As progressive developments, dwellings at El Gallo were able to adopt new and diverse roles along their whole process of evolution. In this section, relevant issues of the process of dwelling evolution observed at El Gallo are discussed. The first concerns the role of the non-permanent structure in the context of El Gallo as a sponsored progressive development project. The second comments on the process of dwelling evolution that followed the construction of the permanent structure.

In principle, non-permanent structures at El Gallo were similar to ranchos built in informal settlements. Ranchos at El Gallo served as primary shelters while more basic household priorities were met (i.e., services and infrastructure were provided, sources of income were found and generated, and even a favourable social environment was developed among neighbours). However, the majority of tin shacks were neither considerably increased nor upgraded with better materials even when they were used for long periods of time. This fact, together with the sudden change in the pace of development caused by the construction of a very complete permanent dwelling and subsequent removal of the rancho, had no connection with the gradual process of shack replacement observed in invasion settlements of Ciudad Guayana during this study (Portela, M. 1992). Neither did this process have a relationship with the system of "piecemeal construction" described by several housing researchers as characteristic of low-income dwellers.

The shanties were... housing in process of improvement. In particular the piecemeal system of building afforded great advantages to those who, like most of the poor in developing societies, have great variations in income from month to month (Peattie L. 1982:132).

Under El Gallo conditions of land security, ranchos did not show consolidation, and revealed their transient character because they were eventually substituted by permanent structures. The non-permanent structure revealed the primary household's aspiration for a minimum satisfactory habitable area. However, besides basic shelter during the initial stage, ranchos served to the purposes of capital accumulation that eventually allowed households to buy a basic unit according to official standards, or building a bigger, more complete first permanent structure. The size of ranchos reflected households' aspirations for the permanent dwelling, that is,smaller ranchos were substituted by basic units of the housing programs. Instead larger ranchos were substituted by large self-produced dwellings.

It is difficult to ascertain why ranchos were removed when they could have been kept as part of the dwelling, as in fact did a minority of households (2 cases). Is a fact that the temporary materials of ranchos contributed to their deterioration that ended with the total removal of the rancho. However, an idea that may have contributed to the demolition of the rancho was the household's adoption of the planner's belief that ranchos were a bad but necessary step on the way to obtaining permanent housing. Thus, once the permanent dwelling was built, the price households paid to gain credibility (i.e., that this stage was reached) was the demolition of the rancho itself. This interpretation can be specially true for Ciudad Guayana, where dwellings of certain quality such as those of El Gallo were seen as "casas" or houses. Instead, structures of similar quality in the hills of cities such as Caracas were still considered ranchos. In the long run, informal settlements obtained the largest benefits from this process because they gained far more official tolerance and social credibility (i.e., that shacks were actually temporary means of residence towards good-quality housing).

Those who lived in smaller ranchos improved their spatial conditions by moving to the small basic dwellings. Those who occupied bigger ranchos built bigger dwellings by themselves. Still, some households built their dwellings without going through the rancho stage. Self-produced dwellings followed the formal models either to gain the government's credibility of user commitment to build "good" government-like housing, or because households believed so. Imitation of the formal models, however, varied according to the builder's interpretation. For instance, the pattern of the detached dwelling was adopted, but often one of the side yards was reduced to a physical separation between the dwelling and the plot separation wall. More effective interpretations involved enlarging the front porch or using the central circulation axis to allow easy extension in the future.

The building approach of the permanent structure influenced the process of evolution that followed. Basic units built by the housing agencies had a compact, complete layout with higher standards of construction; however, aspects of the design, such as internal dimensions, were inadequate for household criteria, and the layout was not well adapted. Dwellings built according to provided plans and specificationshad similar problems, but households enlarged spaces and modified layouts when they were building the units. The level of construction standards was also reduced since the lateral façades of some dwellings were unfinished. Dwellings built totally by self-help means were the largest permanent structures. Aspects of the design of the first permanent structure allowed easy extension of the dwelling towards open areas of the plot. More user participation was reflected in straight-forward processes of evolution without internal modifications, and fewer stages to reach the current houseform.

5.3 Significance of the Study

While this study acknowledges again the effectiveness of progressive development in the housing system, it shows how dwelling evolution in progressive development projects can have different characteristics produced by internal and external interventions. Usually, projects are designed and launched to reproduce certain desirable outcomes and meet specific expectations. However, conditions prevailing in these projects and sometimes strategies that are introduced to "improve," "speed up" or make more "efficient" the process of evolution can affect the outcome in many different ways. This study showed how contextual characteristics of El Gallo, as well as the design and level of user participation in the initial permanent dwelling, affected successive stages of progressive development. However, it is important to recognize that are other issues beyond the spatial aspects that are intrinsically related with the evolution of the dwellings and that were not included within the scope of these particular research (i.e., household's changes in income, size, and age or gender structure).

The findings at El Gallo add modestly to the body of knowledge of literature on progressive development. Progressive Urban Development Units, UMUPs , have been the main housing strategy in Ciudad Guayana these last years, and they are likely to keep being used. Simple facts such as knowing the characteristics of the additions and modifications that households make to their dwellings over time can be the basis for more assertive actions supporting or enforcing progressive development activities. Understanding the process of dwelling evolution in low-income developments would be an effective way to help the process that, in the case of Ciudad Guayana, zonings and bylaws have been unable to regulate.

5.4 Recommendations for Further Research

Long term assessments are particularly constrained by the availability and reliability of recorded data. The frequency, and often the methodology, in which censuses and surveys are made do not always suit the purposes of this kind of research. Household interviews are very important, but they may become troubled by informant's limited memories and the continuity of the household in the dwelling. Aerial documentation, if available, represents one of the most reliable sources to observe physical change. Nevertheless, a careful and detailed process of observation of aerial data becomes very time consuming. For similar studies, a first phase in which the housing diversity is identified in the aerial data according to the selected criteria, would allow to reduce the number of detailed survey samples needed, thus considerably reducing the time of data collection.

In the context of Ciudad Guayana, further studies of the non-permanent dwelling in recent UMUPs would reveal new insights into the function of these structures in progressive development projects. This would be essential especially if any kind of initial aid is to be provided. On the other hand, following the growth of progressive developments is necessary if services and infrastructure are, as they are now, the responsibility of the local government. Identifying the producers of physical evolution -- i.e., the drivers and catalysts of change -- would be an important step for further research. An interesting step within this trend could be to ascertain the extent in which other household processes -- family growth, income increase and economic stability, household aging, changes in the household composition (single- to multi- family), etc., affect the process of dwelling evolution.

In the context of low-income housing, the process of progressive development needs further understanding. As in Ciudad Guayana, progressive development is likely to be the main housing strategy for other developing countries in the near future. Local authorities would do well to follow the evolution of settlements and to identify real household needs, and the consequences of public and/or private interventions in low-income settlements. Perhaps the most important learning of this study is that the experience of El Gallo acknowledges again the dynamic participation of the low-income households under different conditions, and still leaves wide room for a positive participation for the many other actors in the evolving urban entity.

. Notes for Chapter V

1 Dodge reports that some settlers of Ciudad Guayana kept the rancho and rented it to poorer families (Dodge,C. 1968:220). This attitude has been more common in other progressive development projects. The Dandora site and services also encouraged the construction of temporary shacks while the permanent dwelling was built. However, non-permanent structures remained to be rented or used as storage areas even after the permanent dwelling was built (McCarney, P.L. 1987:90).

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Chapter 5 Summary, Conclusions, Discussions, & Recommendations

Jul 29, 2014

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Chapter 5 Summary, Conclusions, Discussions, & Recommendations . Applied Research Center Abraham S. Fischler School of Education Summer Conference 2012. General Information. This session will address the components of Chapter 5 of the Applied Dissertation.

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Chapter 5 Summary, Conclusions, Discussions, & Recommendations Applied Research Center Abraham S. Fischler School of Education Summer Conference 2012

General Information This session will address the components of Chapter 5 of the Applied Dissertation. The format and style of Chapter 5 should follow the Style Guide for the Applied Dissertationand the sixth edition of the APA manual.

Chapter 5 Purpose of Chapter 5: To provide the readers with a thorough understanding of what the results of your study mean to the research field and to professional practice.

Chapter 5 Chapter 5 allows you to summarize the findings, discuss the importance of the findings, place the research findings in the context of current literature, compare and contrast the research findings with other relevant research, identify the strengths and weaknesses of the research study, discuss the implications of the research findings, and make recommendations for future research.

Summary of Findings Restate the results presented in Chapter 4 using little or no statistical jargon. Write in a clear straightforward manner with no interpretation of the results. Use past tense. Do not include tables and figures. Identify whether the findings of your study supported the hypotheses or research questions. Present unusual findings (e.g., results that you did not expect to be significant but were, and vice versa).

Interpretation of Findings Analyze both significant findings and not significant findings. Were the results what you predicted? Why do you think the results turned out the way they did? Were there any issues related to sampling, measurement, and procedural issues, as well as confounding variables? Provide possible explanations for the results. Link the results to any theoretical framework you used to develop your research question or hypotheses.

Context of Findings Place your findings in perspective to other studies of the topic found in the reviewed literature. How are your findings similar or different from those of other studies? Based on the literature, are the findings what might have been expected? If your results differ from those of other studies, what plausible explanations can account for this?

Implications of Findings • How do the findings expand the understanding of the phenomenon under study? • Identify the implications of the findings for • Theory: Are findings consistent with current theories in the field? Are they consistent with the selected theoretical framework for your study? • Research: Does the study help advance the research methodology in the field? (e.g., understanding of new confounding variables, issues of measurement, issues of design) • Practice: Who may be interested in using these findings in a professional field? Why should they pay attention to the findings? Could the findings lead to changes in the way professionals “do” things?

Discussion on Limitations Review the potential limitations that you initially proposed in the proposal. Discuss the limitations that may have affected—one way or another—your findings. Limitations typically originate in one of two sources: the study’s design and the study’s problems during implementation. Issues of design involve decisions about sampling, assessment, procedures, and choice of research design (poor match). Some of the issues that may have arisen at the time of research implementation relate to low sample size, measurement issues, heterogeneous groups, and so forth.

Discussion on Limitations (Cont.) Think of limitations in four major areas: Internal Validity—Unless the study is a “true experiment” one cannot claim that the IV “caused” changes in the DV. External Validity—Discuss the extent to which findings can be generalized. Measurement—Discuss issues of reliability and validity of assessment instruments. Statistical Analysis—Discuss issues of power, effect size, conservative or liberal statistics, and statistical test chosen.

Discussion on Future Directions Discuss findings in light of questions or issues that suggest future research directions. Extend the study to other populations. Think of other IVs and DVs that ought to be explored in the field; also, think of how to assess those additional variables. This is the section of the paper where most researchers are allowed to dream; think of extending your study to other questions that may add to the understanding of the issues.

Bibliography Cone, J. D., & Foster, S. F. (2006). Dissertations and theses from start to finish: Psychology and related fields. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association. Cottrell, R. R., & McKenzie, J. F. (2011). Health Promotion and education research methods: Using the five-chapter thesis/dissertation model (2nd ed.). Sudbury, MA: Jones and Bartlett.

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• How to Write Recommendations in Research | Examples & Tips

How to Write Recommendations in Research | Examples & Tips

Published on September 15, 2022 by Tegan George . Revised on July 18, 2023.

Recommendations in research are a crucial component of your discussion section and the conclusion of your thesis , dissertation , or research paper .

As you conduct your research and analyze the data you collected , perhaps there are ideas or results that don’t quite fit the scope of your research topic. Or, maybe your results suggest that there are further implications of your results or the causal relationships between previously-studied variables than covered in extant research.

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Table of contents

What should recommendations look like, building your research recommendation, how should your recommendations be written, recommendation in research example, other interesting articles, frequently asked questions about recommendations.

Recommendations for future research should be:

• Concrete and specific
• Supported with a clear rationale
• Directly connected to your research

Overall, strive to highlight ways other researchers can reproduce or replicate your results to draw further conclusions, and suggest different directions that future research can take, if applicable.

Relatedly, when making these recommendations, avoid:

• Undermining your own work, but rather offer suggestions on how future studies can build upon it
• Suggesting recommendations actually needed to complete your argument, but rather ensure that your research stands alone on its own merits
• Using recommendations as a place for self-criticism, but rather as a natural extension point for your work

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There are many different ways to frame recommendations, but the easiest is perhaps to follow the formula of research question   conclusion  recommendation. Here’s an example.

Conclusion An important condition for controlling many social skills is mastering language. If children have a better command of language, they can express themselves better and are better able to understand their peers. Opportunities to practice social skills are thus dependent on the development of language skills.

As a rule of thumb, try to limit yourself to only the most relevant future recommendations: ones that stem directly from your work. While you can have multiple recommendations for each research conclusion, it is also acceptable to have one recommendation that is connected to more than one conclusion.

These recommendations should be targeted at your audience, specifically toward peers or colleagues in your field that work on similar subjects to your paper or dissertation topic . They can flow directly from any limitations you found while conducting your work, offering concrete and actionable possibilities for how future research can build on anything that your own work was unable to address at the time of your writing.

See below for a full research recommendation example that you can use as a template to write your own.

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While it may be tempting to present new arguments or evidence in your thesis or disseration conclusion , especially if you have a particularly striking argument you’d like to finish your analysis with, you shouldn’t. Theses and dissertations follow a more formal structure than this.

All your findings and arguments should be presented in the body of the text (more specifically in the discussion section and results section .) The conclusion is meant to summarize and reflect on the evidence and arguments you have already presented, not introduce new ones.

The conclusion of your thesis or dissertation should include the following:

• A restatement of your research question
• A summary of your key arguments and/or results
• A short discussion of the implications of your research

For a stronger dissertation conclusion , avoid including:

• Important evidence or analysis that wasn’t mentioned in the discussion section and results section
• Generic concluding phrases (e.g. “In conclusion …”)
• Weak statements that undermine your argument (e.g., “There are good points on both sides of this issue.”)

Your conclusion should leave the reader with a strong, decisive impression of your work.

In a thesis or dissertation, the discussion is an in-depth exploration of the results, going into detail about the meaning of your findings and citing relevant sources to put them in context.

The conclusion is more shorter and more general: it concisely answers your main research question and makes recommendations based on your overall findings.

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• Table of Contents
• Chapter 1: Introduction
• Chapter 2: Creating Trustworthy Guidelines
• Chapter 3: Overview of the Guideline Development Process
• Chapter 4: Formulating PICO Questions
• Chapter 5: Choosing and Ranking Outcomes
• Chapter 6: Systematic Review Overview
• Chapter 7: GRADE Criteria Determining Certainty of Evidence
• Chapter 8: Domains Decreasing Certainty in the Evidence
• Chapter 9: Domains Increasing One's Certainty in the Evidence
• Chapter 10: Overall Certainty of Evidence
• Chapter 11: Communicating findings from the GRADE certainty assessment
• Chapter 12: Integrating Randomized and Non-randomized Studies in Evidence Synthesis

Related Topics:

• Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)
• Vaccine-Specific Recommendations
• Evidence-Based Recommendations—GRADE

Chapter 7: GRADE Criteria Determining Certainty of Evidence

This ACIP GRADE handbook provides guidance to the ACIP workgroups on how to use the GRADE approach for assessing the certainty of evidence.

The GRADE approach is used to determine the certainty of evidence across the body of evidence for each outcome identified as critical or important for decision-making 1 . The certainty in the evidence reflects how confident we are that the observed effect reflects the true effect (Table 4).

The process of assessing the certainty of evidence begins by categorizing the study design into one of two groups:

• Randomized controlled trials (RCTs)
• Non-randomized studies (NRS) - also known as observational studies, i.e., cohort studies, case control studies, controlled before-after studies, interrupted time series studies, and case series.

Randomized controlled trials initially start at a high level of certainty (former ACIP level 1) while non-randomized studies traditionally start at low level of certainty (former ACIP level 3) (Figure 5). This accounts for the lack of randomization in non-randomized studies, which increases the risk of residual or unknown confounding. However, if non-randomized studies are appropriately evaluated for risk of bias using a tool that assesses risk of bias along an absolute scale, such as the Risk Of Bias In Non-randomized Studies of Interventions (ROBINS-I) tool (currently available for comparative cohort studies), the evidence may start at an initial high certainty level 2 . The ROBINS-I tool assesses selection bias and confounding as an integral part of the evaluation process, unlike most other risk of bias tools for NRS 2 . The final certainty of evidence rating should not change based on the type of risk of bias instrument used. Five GRADE domains are used for downgrading the evidence type: risk of bias; inconsistency; indirectness; imprecision; and publication bias. Three GRADE criteria can be used to upgrade the evidence level of non-randomized studies: strength of association; dose-response; and opposing plausible residual confounding or bias. RCTs are typically not upgraded using these criteria as it risks erroneously inflating the certainty of the body of evidence.

Figure 5. GRADE criteria for assessing the type or certainty of evidence (adapted)

References in this figure: 3

*Upgrading criteria are usually applicable to observational studies only

**Observational studies start at Low certainty unless use an appropriate RoB instrument such as ROBINS-I

The final “ACIP Level” certainty rating can be interpreted as how confident the authors are in the results. Formerly, these were ranked numerically (1—4) but ACIP has replaced numbers with the terms “high”, “moderate”, “low”, “very low”. Since older publications of GRADE will use the numerical levels, the correlates appear here for posterity. Table 4 presents the current and formerly used numerical ACIP levels of certainty in the evidence and how they can be conceptualized.

Table 4. Conceptualizing the certainty of the evidence 4

The final certainty of evidence for an outcome is cumulative of the considerations for rating down or rating up (non-randomized studies). For example, when the body of evidence from well-performed (i.e., no uncertainty or reason for rating down) NRS demonstrates both strength of association and dose response, the evidence type may be rated up by two levels from Low to High (i.e., formerly ACIP Level 1). Typically, if the body of evidence for an outcome is rated down due to concerns from one or more of the previously described domains, it would not be rated up as this may overstate the certainty of an estimate thought to be substantially different from the truth. For example, if there is serious concern with the risk of bias due to lack of blinding, which may overestimate the effect, this outcome should not be rated back up due to large magnitude of effect.

Reviewers should categorize the final evidence certainty by making judgements on the individual GRADE domains in the context of their identified strengths or limitations. GRADE recognizes that judgment is involved during the evidence assessment and that overall certainty reflects if and how much concerns about the domains matter. It should be noted that concerns about domains for rating down may not equate in a one-to-one relationship to the overall certainty. For example, limitations pertaining to the risk of bias (e.g., the pooled analysis includes studies at both high and low risk of bias) and indirectness domains are identified, but these limitations are not serious enough for moving down each of the domains, the overall evidence type may be downgraded by one level when limitations for both domains are considered together (e.g., downgrade from high to moderate). The GRADE domain that played the biggest role in downgrading as well as all contributing factors should be specified.

The PICO question must be considered when determining the study design classification for an outcome. For example, a study in which infants are randomized into two different vaccination schedules would be classified as an RCT if the question is about which vaccination schedule is more effective. However, it would be classified as an NRS with no control group if the comparison group consists of infants who do not receive vaccination. Therefore, study design judgements should not be based on how authors of a study describe their methodology, but should consider how the study methodology aligns to answer the PICO question. This can be presented in the GRADE evidence profiles in one of two ways: 1) Identify study design as "Randomized Trial" to match the published study methodology and rate down twice for risk of bias with a footnote delineating that the evidence used to inform the outcome broke randomization; or 2) Identify study design as "Observational Study" and include a footnote that delineates the details of the trial. The PICO question should not be rephrased to reflect the evidence identified.

After conducting the GRADE assessment, the evidence can be categorized as either high, moderate, low or very low (formerly within ACIP, the equivalent levels were 1 [High], 2 [Moderate], 3 [Low], and 4 [Very low]). The certainty of the evidence reflects the confidence in the effect estimates that help inform recommendations. For guidelines, it is important to note that while the certainty of the evidence helps inform the recommendation, there are other factors that inform judgements about the strength of a recommendation. These can be found in the ACIP Evidence to Recommendation User's Guide. 5

• Guyatt, G.H., et al., GRADE guidelines: 2. Framing the question and deciding on important outcomes. J Clin Epidemiol. 2011 Apr;64(4):395-400. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2010.09.012. Epub 2010 Dec 30. PMID: 21194891.
• Schünemann HJ, Cuello C, Akl EA, et al. GRADE guidelines: 18. How ROBINS-I and other tools to assess risk of bias in nonrandomized studies should be used to rate the certainty of a body of evidence. J Clin Epidemiol. 2019/07// 2019;111:105-114. doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2018.01.012
• Morgan RL, Thayer KA, Bero L, et al. GRADE: Assessing the quality of evidence in environmental and occupational health. Environ Int. 2016/08//Jul- undefined 2016;92-93:611-616. doi:10.1016/j.envint.2016.01.004
• Schünemann HJ. Interpreting GRADE's levels of certainty or quality of the evidence: GRADE for statisticians, considering review information size or less emphasis on imprecision? J Clin Epidemiol. 2016/07// 2016;75:6-15. doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2016.03.018
• ACIP Evidence to Recommendation User’s Guide (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) (2020)

ACIP GRADE Handbook

This handbook provides guidance to the ACIP workgroups on how to use the GRADE approach for assessing the certainty of evidence.

2024 State of the Science Report - Chapter 11: Summary and Path Forward

The 2024 State of the Science report encompasses an introduction and a look ahead (this chapter), as well as nine chapters that provide details of research and monitoring findings around the world, identify gaps in knowledge, and list recommendations for addressing these gaps. The main messages from each chapter are briefly summarized in Chapter 11, followed by the outlook for OES-Environmental collaborations over the coming years.

As the fourth phase of OES-Environmental draws to a close, there remain substantial areas of uncertainty about MRE environmental effects, even as new fields of inquiry become important. The body of knowledge that has been gleaned over the past 14 years (2010-2024) represents a level of understanding that can be used to facilitate consenting of single devices and small arrays, as well as provide insight on how larger arrays might fit into the receiving environment. With the new phase (Phase 5) of OES-Environmental, the country representatives recognize the value of four new areas of work that will provide actionable advice and reduce uncertainty for MRE effects. Those four new areas encompass the ability to use the compendium of knowledge acquired to date to advise on environmental acceptability; to examine potential environmental effects of off-grid MRE applications; and to delve further into potential system-wide effects of MRE as the industry scales up. In addition, there is a need to further pursue tools and outcomes of potential social and economic effects of MRE. Each of these areas of focus for Phase 5 of OES-Environmental is described in the chapter.

The  2024 State of the Science Report  consists of 11 chapters which can be downloaded as a whole or individually. Download  Chapter 11: Summary and Path Forward here.