uk weather essay

The influence of climate change on severe weather

As shared in our recent blog post on understanding weather and climate extremes , we are seeing an increase of extreme weather around the world including in the UK. Since the industrial revolution, the average temperature of the planet has risen by around 1.26 °C (based on the suggested approach of Met Office researchers ). This is a rapid change in terms of our global climate system and has already led to the changes in the extreme weather we are experiencing.

The Met Office’s dedicated team looking at weather and climate extremes has collated the latest published academic literature on severe weather in the UK in the context of our changing climate. In this blog post, Climate Extremes Principal Fellow and Chief Meteorologist Paul Davies shares some of the findings from that work.

Extreme heat

The frequency and intensity of heatwaves have increased worldwide. A number of major heatwaves in the UK have occurred in the past 5 years (2018, 2019, 2021 and 2022), each seeing new temperature records set. Notably the England record has been set three times over. Numerous climate attribution studies have shown that human influences have increased the chances of occurrence of specific extreme heat events such as the summer of 2018 and July 2022. Almost all studies on extreme heat events indicate human influence.

Looking ahead, the headline findings from UK Climate Projections (UKCP) indicate that on average, summers will become hotter. Met Office UKCP Local projections indicate that hot spells will become more frequent in our future climate, particularly over the south-east of the UK, with temperatures projected to rise in all seasons.

Heavy rainfall

In the recent climate, it has generally become wetter, particularly during winter. The winters of 2014, 2016 and 2020 are all in the top five wettest (the other winters being 1995 and 1990). One reason for this is the large annual, seasonal and decadal variability in rainfall, but in winter the emerging climate change signal resulting from increased atmospheric moisture is an important secondary factor. Rainfall totals on the wettest days have increased, this is more strongly linked to climate change.

In the future, climate projections for the UK indicate there being a greater risk of heavy precipitation and prolonged events in the future, particularly during winter.

As the atmosphere warms due to human induced climate change it can hold more moisture, at a rate of around 7% more moisture for every degree of warming. This means that when it does rain it can be more intense. On a simple level, this explains why in many regions of the world projections show an increase in precipitation as a consequence of human induced climate change.

Intense rainfall from thunderstorms

In the recent climate, trends in short rainfall events lasting less that one day are difficult to detect, due to historically sparse sub-daily observations and natural year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability. Extreme precipitation associated with thunderstorms, is, however, projected to intensify with climate change.

In the future, rainfall events exceeding 20mm per hour, which can cause flash flooding, are expected to be four times as frequent by the 2070s compared to the 1980s, under a high emissions scenario i.e., if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated at a high level. Changes are not projected to happen gradually, but instead extreme years with lots of events could tend to cluster. When and by how much these changes are projected to occur varies in different regions of the UK.

In the recent climate, there is no evidence of positive or negative trends in windstorm number or intensity over the UK. Trends in windstorm numbers are difficult to detect, due to how these naturally vary year-to-year and decade-to-decade. As well as wind damage, windstorms can cause impacts from storm surges and high waves in coastal areas. These are expected to worsen as sea level rises.

Most climate projections indicate that winter windstorms will increase slightly in number and intensity over the UK i.e., more winter storms, including disproportionately more severe storms. However, there is medium rather than high confidence in this projection because some climate models indicate differently.

Whilst there have been observed changes in the drivers of drought in the UK, there is much less evidence of trends in many drought metrics at present. However, the impact of extreme hot periods in summer has been noticeable in recent years (2018 and 2022) and shows the impact rising temperatures can have on water supply and demand.

Currently, there are no UK climate attribution studies available that clearly link human induced climate change with an altered risk of drought events. However, attribution studies have been carried out for extreme temperature events, which can lead to increases in evaporation, drier soil and considerable impacts on water supplies.

Most studies into our future climate point towards general increases in frequency and length of meteorological drought for the UK. This general rainfall deficit can exacerbate other forms of drought such as hydrological drought or agricultural drought, but these other forms of drought can have other drivers such as groundwater storage, drier soil and low river flows.

Extreme cold and snow

Despite the warming climate, extreme cold events still occur in the UK due to natural variability . The decrease in the frequency, duration, and intensity of these events over recent decades is clearly linked to the observed warming of the planet and can be attributed to human activity. For example, attribution studies have found that the unusually cold European winter of 2009/2010, UK cold snap in March 2018 (which included the event widely known as the Beast from the East) and the cold UK spring of 2013 would be much more likely without human influence on the climate.

The number of air and ground frost days in recent years has also decreased, with 4% fewer days of air frost in the most recent decade (2013-2022) than the 1991–2020 average, and 15% fewer than the 1961–1990 average. 2013-2022 also had 7% fewer days of ground frost than the 1991-2020 average and 24% fewer than the 1961-1990 average.

Future UK winter climate will still be variable year to year, so severely cold winters are still likely to occur – just less often – so it is important to remain resilient to severe winters when they do occur. Snow in the UK is very conditional on the setup of the weather; it is not just low temperatures that lead to snow. Overall, projections show that the frequency of snow events will decrease in the UK in future. There is less certainty about the intensity of future snow events due to more complex atmospheric interactions.

Tackling climate change

Mitigating against a changing climate by reducing greenhouse gas emissions is critical to limiting warming which would help us avoid the worst impacts of climate change. We also need to adapt to the climate changes we are already seeing and the changes that are expected in the coming decades to make sure we avoid the most significant impacts.

Action is required across all levels of society – to find out more about how you can make a difference, take a look at our Get Climate Ready webpages .

Follow the #GetClimateReady hashtag on X (formerly Twitter) to learn more about weather and climate extremes this month.

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The Unpredictable British Weather

Malaysians revolve their conversation around food. The first thing we mention when seeing someone, is, ‘Have you eaten?’

In the UK, at the first point of contact, Britons talk about the weather. A survey has shown that Britons spend a total of four months moaning about the climate, be it hot or cold. They whinge about the weather elements four times a day, for a total of eight minutes and 21 seconds! Weather-talk is the nation’s favourite ice-breaker, and what better way to integrate yourself into the British culture than to follow suit!

The British weather is so unpredictable. There are four seasons and each is beautiful in its own way, although there can be drawbacks.Most of you will probably arrive in September or October for your course intake. Average temperatures range from 10 degrees Celcius (50F). The winter then takes a plunge to 0 degrees (32F) or in some instances -18 degrees! This comes with heavy snowfalls and icy conditions. 

Be forewarned – traffic, public transport, university campuses and jobs come to a standstill when the country is hit by wintry conditions. Some university campuses are closed to avoid accidents. Strange but true. Spring may make a late appearance, but it is all worth the wait. When the sun finally shines and the country bursts into an array of colours, there is a vibe of excitement as you watch people rushing out to parks to sunbathe and smell the distinct smoky aroma of delicious bbq.

It is a good idea to carry an umbrella even on hot sunny days. In many parts of the country, it can rain a lot even during the summer. In winter, it gets dark early – a time when people start getting a bit grumpy and depressed.

Top tips to survive the British weather:

• Be healthy - take your vitamins and eat well
• Keep warm – a good thick jacket is not good enough. The trick to feeling warm and snug is to layer up! Pile on your singlets, long sleeves, jumpers, hoodies – and yes, that means all at once.
• A waterproof jacket is a must-have!
• Immerse yourself in this national obsession. It is a great way to bond with people.

If you fail to see the up-side of the country’s gripe with the climate, then remind yourself of its true importance; how the weather helped save Britain from Hitler and Spanish invasion, and the birth of the popular Oxford detective series Inspector Morse .

To check the weather in the UK, log on to the BBC or the Met Office website.

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• Brace yourself for another cold winter

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Top five things to do in the UK

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, is made up of four countries: England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. It’s easy to think that the UK is one country, especially if you are visiting from abroad. However, each country has its own history, culture and even language. With four countries to choose from, here are the top five things to do on your travels to the islands.   Visit the beach   

Common cultural misconceptions about the UK

When most people think of Britain, they conjure images of gents in top hats, sipping tea and speaking the Queen’s English. They imagine warm pints, endless queues and people too conservative and polite to take seriously. This narrow idea of British life is damaging and prevents us from understanding what living like a Brit really means.   Dispelling the following myths will no doubt make it easier for you to understand British culture, and make

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UK weather: Met Office issues yellow wind warning as 60mph gusts could bring 'dangerous conditions'

Forecasters said the weather could cause difficult driving conditions, travel disruption, flooding, and power cuts and urged people to "stay safe", particularly in coastal areas.

Wednesday 21 August 2024 13:51, UK

The Met Office has issued a yellow weather warning for strong winds as gusts of 60mph could bring "dangerous conditions" to parts of the UK.

Areas in northern Wales, northern England and southern Scotland can expect the severe conditions on Thursday from 1am until 9am.

There is already another yellow warning for heavy rain in western Scotland, which came into force on Wednesday morning and will run until 8am on Thursday.

Forecasters said some places, including Glasgow, could see 75-100mm (3-4in) of rain in 24 hours, with "as much as 150mm (6in)" on the hills.

This could cause difficult driving conditions, travel disruption and flooding in places.

Five-day forecast for where you live

Thursday's high winds will further complicate the conditions with the Met Office warning "gusts will be strong enough to blow over a few trees, given that they are currently in full leaf".

In an update on its website, the Met Office added: "A spell of very strong southwesterly winds will occur during the early hours of Thursday, easing from the west during the morning.

"Gusts of 50mph are likely fairly widely with some gusts of 60mph in exposed locations, including roads and bridges in north Wales, as well as roads passing over high ground in northern England and southern Scotland."

People on coastlines were urged to "stay safe" and to be "aware of large waves" while forecasters said the winds could bring travel disruption and power cuts.

The Met Office said remnants of Hurricane Ernesto, which ripped through the North Atlantic last week, will play a role in the rain and windy weather.

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Chief meteorologist at the Met Office Jason Kelly said the rain in Scotland will be "slow moving" before the winds bring worsening conditions.

"Gusty winds will accompany the rain, with 50-60mph possible near Irish Sea coasts and the west of Scotland," he said.

"Coupled with spring tides, this could lead to some dangerous coastal conditions before winds gradually ease later on Thursday."

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The bank holiday weekend is forecast to get off to an unsettled start as rain slowly clears, but should then be calm and dry in most areas.

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Weather in the United Kingdom: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature

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Although the United Kingdom is about the same size as Michigan, it is an island caught between the warmer Atlantic Gulf Stream and the frigid North Sea. That makes for a greater variety of changeable weather than you might expect. It may be at about the same latitude as Canada's Hudson Bay, yet the temperature climate means that palm trees will grow outdoors through the winter— even in parts of Scotland .

Temperatures across England are temperate  : Hard freezes and very hot weather are rare. In fact, it's not unusual for some tropical plants to thrive out of doors through the winter. Temperatures across the U.K. vary by only a few degrees from place to place. But those few degrees can make a world of difference. Some smaller palm trees grow along the Cornish Coast and in the microclimates of sheltered gardens.

Visitors are sometimes surprised that temperatures in England between mid-March and mid-October don't vary a great deal. It's possible to experience days in spring and early fall that are as warm as any you might experience in the summer. And it's not unknown for a holiday weekend in August to be brisk.

Don't let all this variability lure you into packing for the tropics, though! Wind and high humidity make even relatively high temperatures feel much colder. And keep in mind too that days are much shorter in England through the winter than they are in North America or further south in Europe. The temperatures drop at night and the lack of sunlight can make you feel chilled to the bone. The climate in Seattle and along the Pacific Northwest is similar to that of England, though, contrary to the myths about the U.K., it rains more in Seattle .

Plan on packing the kinds of clothing that you can layer up or peel off depending on how you feel. Layers are also useful if you're staying in or visiting a historic building; you may need to pile on the extra jerseys to stay comfortable indoors.

Read on for more information about the United Kingdom's climate, season-by-season, as well as suggestions for what to pack.

Fast Climate Facts

Hottest Month: July and August (66 F / 19 C)

Coldest Month: January and February (41 F / 5 C)

Wettest Month: October (2.7 inches)

Spring in the United Kingdom

By March, temperatures in the U.K. start to warm up and frost is more uncommon. Temperatures typically range from 48 degrees to 60 degrees, but the weather is often wet and windy. Daylight starts to increase, ranging from 11 to 15 hours depending on the month.

What to Pack: Don't forget your wellies! Regardless of when you visit the U.K., you should expect rain and damp weather, but especially in the spring. Make sure to pack waterproof footwear, an umbrella, and a trenchcoat.

Summer in the United Kingdom

While summer in most parts of the world means hot and dry, the U.K. experiences quite a temperate season with temperatures rarely exceeding 80 degrees F. Rain is still a possibility though, so you'll want to be prepared. At the peak of summer, London experiences nearly 17 hours of daylight.

What to Pack: Bring your umbrella along, but in the summer months, you might also want to pack a swimsuit and other summer-appropriate attire. When the weather warms up, people flock to Britain's beaches—and you should do the same!

Fall in the United Kingdom

Fall, or autumn, typically has the most weather variability of all the seasons. September and October can still be quite warm, but November is typically quite cold and is among the wettest months of the year. There is usually between 10 and 14 hours of daylight.

What to Pack: Pack a few wool tops and sweaters, which are ideal for their lightweight and breathability. Pair this with a water-resistant (or ideally, waterproof) jacket for periodic rain showers, as well as waterproof shoes. As always, an umbrella is a must!

Winter in the United Kingdom

Winter is the coldest season in the U.K., with temperatures often dropping to freezing. Luckily, they very rarely dip below that. Frost is common and occasionally snow, but the season is mostly wet and windy. Additionally, adding to the gloomy weather, there is minimal daylight throughout the winter, with London receiving as little as eight hours at the season's peak.

What to Pack: Bring a raincoat, a thick woolly sweater and a good pair of waterproof walking shoes. While the U.K.'s winter climate is still relatively moderate, getting wet can make you feel colder than the temperature would suggest.

BBC Bitesize. (2020). The climate of the UK - Atmosphere and climate - Edexcel - GCSE Geography Revision - Edexcel - BBC Bitesize .

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Weather and climate in United Kingdom

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