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Report on La Palma (Spain) — October 2021

Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network, vol. 46, no. 10 (October 2021) Managing Editor: Edward Venzke. Edited by A. Elizabeth Crafford. La Palma (Spain) First eruption since 1971 starts on 19 September; lava fountains, ash plumes, and lava flows

Please cite this report as: Global Volcanism Program, 2021. Report on La Palma (Spain) (Crafford, A.E., and Venzke, E., eds.). Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network , 46:10. Smithsonian Institution. https://doi.org/10.5479/si.GVP.BGVN202110-383010

28.57°N, 17.83°W; summit elev. 2426 m

All times are local (unless otherwise noted).

Multiple eruptions have occurred during the last 7,000 years at the Cumbre Vieja volcanic center on La Palma, the NW-most of the Canary Islands. The eruptions have created cinder cones and craters, and produced fissure-fed lava flows that reached the sea a number of times. Eruptions recorded since the 15th century have produced mild explosive activity and lava flows that damaged populated areas, most recently at the southern tip of the island in 1971. During the three-week eruption in October-November 1971, eruptive activity created a new cone, Teneguia, that had as many as six active vents (CSLP 90-71), and blocky lava flows that reached the sea on the SW flank.

A new eruption began at La Palma on 19 September 2021 in an area on the SW flank of the island about 20 km NW of the 1971 eruption, after a multi-year period of elevated seismicity. Two fissures opened and multiple vents produced lava fountains, ash plumes, and flows that traveled over 5 km W to the sea, destroying hundreds of properties in their path (figure 2). Activity through the end of September is covered in this report with information provided by Spain’s Instituto Geographico Nacional (IGN), the Instituto Volcanologico de Canarias (INVOLCAN), the Steering Committee of the Special Plan for Civil Protection and Attention to Emergencies due to Volcanic Risk (PEVOLCA), maps from Copernicus EMS, satellite data, and news and social media reports.

Precursor seismicity. In early July 2017 IGN enhanced their Volcanic Surveillance Network at La Palma to include four GPS antennas, five seismic stations, and four hydrochemical groundwater control points. A seismic swarm of 68 events located on the southern third of the island was recorded during 7-9 October 2017. It was the first of a series of seismic swarms recorded during 2017-2021 (table 1) located in the same general area. This first swarm was followed by a similar set of events a few days later during 13-14 October. The magnitudes of the events during October 2017 (given as MbLg, or the magnitude from the amplitude of the Lg phase, similar to the local Richter magnitude) ranged from less than 1.5 to 2.7, and they occurred over a depth range of 12-35 km. The next seismic swarm of similar characteristics occurred during February 2018, followed by a smaller swarm of seven microseismic events recorded in the same area one year later, on 12 February 2019.

Table 1. Precursor seismicity episodes at La Palma between October 2017 and late June 2021 were all located in the southern third of the island. Magnitude is reported by IGN as MbLg, or the magnitude from the amplitude of the Lg phase, similar to the local Richter magnitude. Data courtesy of IGN Noticias.

By the time the next seismic swarm began in July 2020, IGN had a network of 13 seismic stations installed around the island. There were 160 located events that occurred during 24 July-2 August 2020 with magnitudes of 1.2-2.5 and depths of 16-39 km. Reprocessing of the previous data indicated a distribution of seismicity for the three series (October 2017, February 2018, and July 2020) in a wide strip in an east-west direction, although the October 2017 series occurred at a shallower depth and with the epicenters more concentrated. IGN noted similarities between the February 2018 and July-August 2020 events in terms of location and magnitude (figure 3). Another very similar swarm of 602 detected events was recorded during 23-26 December 2020, with most events located on the western slope of Cumbre Vieja. Two swarms on 21 January and 25 June 2021 had fewer events but similar depths and magnitudes to the earlier events.

Renewed seismicity began on 11 September 2021. The number, frequency, and magnitude of the events all increased over the next several days, while the depth of the events grew shallower. On 13 September a multi-agency scientific committee raised the Alert Level to Yellow (the second lowest level on a four-color scale) for the municipalities of El Paso, Los Llanos de Aridane, Mazo, and Fuencaliente de la Palma. IGN noted a migration of the seismicity toward the W side of the island on 14 September (figure 4). The accumulated surface deformation between 12 and 14 September measured 1.5 cm from the island GNSS network. Seismic activity on 15 September continued to migrate slightly NW at depths of around 7-9 km; in addition, 20 shallow earthquakes of 1-3 km depth were recorded. The accumulated deformation had reached 6 cm by 15 September. As of 0930 on 16 September 50 shallow earthquakes between 1-5 km depth had been located and the maximum vertical deformation was around 10 cm in the area of the seismicity. During 16-18 September seismic activity decreased, but a 3.2 magnitude earthquake located at 100 m depth was felt by the local population. Intense surface seismicity (between 0-6 km) increased in the early hours of 19 September and numerous earthquakes were felt by the local population (figure 4). The maximum accumulated deformation increased to 15 cm in the area close to the seismicity by 1100 on 19 September, and the eruption began about five hours later.

Eruption begins 19 September 2021. A fissure eruption began at 1510 local time (1410 UTC) on 19 September after the intense seismic and deformation activity that began on 11 September. Observers near the eruption site in the area of Cabeza de Vaca, in the municipality of El Paso, witnessed a large explosion with ejecta that produced a gas-and-ash plume. Strombolian activity was accompanied by phreatomagmatic pulses along two 100-m-long N-S fissures about 200 m apart. INVOLCAN scientists observed seven vents along the fissures during the initial stage of the eruption (figure 5). Multiple tall lava fountains fed flows downslope to the W, igniting fires. The PEVOLCA steering committee briefly raised the Alert Level to Orange, and then to Red by 1700 for high-risk municipalities directly affected by the eruption. About 5,500 people evacuated with no injuries reported, and authorities recommended that residents stay at least 2 km from the vents. INVOLCAN scientists determined an average flow rate of 700 m/hour and lava temperatures of around 1,075°C at the start of the eruption (figure 6).

The Toulouse VAAC issued the first ash advisory for the La Palma eruption about 90 minutes after it began. They reported ongoing lava fountains and an ash plume to about 1 km altitude. The plume drifted SW at less than 1.5 km altitude, while SO 2 emissions were reported drifting ESE at 3 km altitude. Later that day, they noted continuing intense lava fountains and ashfall in the vicinity of the volcano. The next day ash emissions drifted S at 2.4 km altitude. Sulfur dioxide emissions were measured by satellite instruments beginning on 19 September; they increased dramatically and drifted hundreds of kilometers E and SE toward the NE coast of Africa over the next few days (figure 7). Ongoing ash emissions rose to 4.6 km altitude later on 20 September. The first Sentinel-2 satellite images of the eruption appeared on 20 September showing a strong point source thermal anomaly partly covered by meteoric clouds (figure 8).

The first map of the new flow on 20 September produced by IGN in partnership with Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMS) showed that the main channel of the lava flow had traveled more than 3 km W. The flows had covered about 1 km 2 and destroyed an estimated 166 buildings (figure 9). A report of the PEVOLCA Scientific Committee indicated that activity on 20 and 21 September was concentrated at four main vents that produced parallel flows with an average flow rate of 200 m/hour; the maximum flow thickness was 10-12 m (figure 10). Strong lava fountaining continued both days and ash fell in the vicinity of the vents. By 0814 on 21 September an updated Copernicus EMS map showed that 350 homes had been covered by lava and the flow field had expanded to 1.54 km 2 . A few hundred more residents evacuated as lava advanced towards Tacande; bringing the number of evacuees to about 5,700. One lava flow branch was advancing slowly S at a rate of 2 m/hour. An ash cloud was observed later that day on the W flank of the volcano slowly drifting SW at 2.4 km altitude. Sulfur dioxide emissions were present over the SE part of the island and were visible at Gomera Island, 80 km SE. Late in the day, ash was observed in satellite imagery about 50 km W of the volcano, while intense lava fountaining continued at the source vent (figure 11).

Activity during 22-25 September 2021. Ash emissions during 22 and 23 September drifted SW and S from 0-3 km altitude, and NE and E from 3-5 km altitude (figure 12); ashfall up to 3 cm thick was reported downwind. An SO 2 plume was also noted drifting NE in satellite imagery. PEVOLCA reported on 23 September that two relatively slow-moving lava flows continued to advance downslope from the vent (figure 13). The northernmost flow was moving at 1 m/hour and was 12 m high and 500 m wide in some places. The southern flow, which surrounded Montaña Rajada, was moving at 4-5 m/hour and about 10 m high. The overall flow was 3.8 km long and 2.1 km from the coast (figure 14). By late on 23 September reports indicated 420 structures had been destroyed and the flow covered just under 2 km 2 .

Lava fountains rose hundreds of meters above the summit crater of the new cone early on 24 September 2021 (figure 15). IGN reported an increase in explosive activity on 24 September that was accompanied by a sharp increase in tremor amplitude. This was followed a short while later by the opening of two new vents on the NW flank of the cone; the fast-moving flows merged into one and produced a new flow over top of the earlier flows. Part of the upper section of the S flank of the cone collapsed on 24 September and briefly caused flow speeds to increase to 250-300 m/hour overnight before slowing to an average speed of 40 m/hour. Due to the fast-moving flow, an evacuation order was issued in the early afternoon for Tajuya, Tacande de Abajo, and part of Tacande de Arriba, affecting 300-400 people. Three airlines also suspended flights to La Palma. The Toulouse VAAC reported ash plumes throughout the day. Ash plumes drifted SW below 3 km altitude and E and SE at 3-5.2 km altitude and resulted in significant ashfall in numerous locations by the next morning (figure 16). Pilots also reported ash near Tenerife and over La Gomera.

By 25 September there were three active vents in the crater and one on the flank of the cone (figure 17), and two active lava flows. On 25 and 26 September dense ash emissions (figure 18) closed the airport and produced ashfall not only in the municipalities near the eruption, but also on the eastern slope of the island; it was reported in Villa de Mazo, Breña Alta and Breña Baja, and Santa Cruz de La Palma or Puntallana. Plumes were drifting SW at altitudes below 1.5 km and NE between 1.5 and 3.9 km altitude over a large area. Mapping by Copernicus EMS indicated that the ashfall covered an area of 13 km 2 (figure 19).

Activity during 26-28 September 2021. During the evening of 26 September jets of lava up to 1 km high were visible from La Laguna and some explosions were strong enough to be felt within 5 km of the vent (figure 20). The main, more northerly lava flow overtook the center of Todoque, in the municipality of Los llanos de Aridane, which had been evacuated several days earlier. It crossed the highway (LP-213) in the center of town and continued 150 m W. It was initially moving at about 100 m/hour, was 4-6 m high, and the front was about 600 m wide, but it slowed significantly after crossing through Todoque, and the height grew to 15 m; it was located about 1,600 m from the coast. The more southerly flow continued moving at about 30 m/hour and was about 2.5 km long.

The PEVOLCA Scientific Committee determined that the volume of erupted material from the beginning of the eruption on 19 September until 27 September was about 46.3 m 3 . By early on 27 September the front of the flow was close to the W side of Todoque Mountain (figure 21), and reports indicated that 589 buildings and 21 km of roads had been destroyed by the 2.5 km 2 of lava. A seismic swarm on the morning of 27 September was located at about 10 km depth in the same area of the previous seismicity below the vent. In addition, pulses of tremor coincided with pulses of ash emissions. A new flow appeared on the N flank of the cone during the afternoon and partly covered previous flows through the center of Todoque, reaching about 2 km from the coast (figure 22). Ash emissions were more intermittent on 27 and 28 September, drifting SW to 1.5 km altitude and NE to 4.3 km altitude in sporadic pulses associated with lava fountains.

The new flow moved through the upper outskirts of Todoque and had reached the road to El Pampillo on the border of the municipalities of Los Llanos and Tazacorte, about 1 km from the coast, early on 28 September (figure 23). A plume with moderate to high ash concentration rose to 5.2 km altitude and extended up to 25 km W. The altitude of the plume increased to 6.1 km drifting E later in the day. A significant SO 2 cloud was clearly identifiable in satellite imagery in a 75 km radius around the island. In addition, satellite instruments measured very large plumes of SO 2 drifting hundreds of kilometers E, S, and N over the next several days (figure 24).

Activity during 28-30 September 2021. Effusive activity continued with a sharp decrease in tremor during the day on 28 September. By evening, sustained fountaining was continuing at the N flank vent, while pulsating jets from three vents within the main crater produced strong effusion into both lava flows. The volume of the cone that had formed at the vent was estimated by PEVOLCA to be 10 million m 3 . Around 2300 local time on 28 September the main lava flow passed on the S side of Todoque Mountain and entered the sea in the area of Playa de Los Guirres in Tazacorte. A continuous cascading flow of lava fell over the cliff (figure 25) and began to form a lava delta. By dawn on 29 September the delta was growing out from the cliff, producing dense steam explosions where the lava entered the sea (figure 26).

By nightfall on 29 September vigorous Strombolian activity was continuing at the pyroclastic cone, and the main lava flow was active all the way to the sea, with a growing delta into the ocean. Ash emissions continued on 29 and 30 September, rising in pulses to 5.2 km altitude and drifting SE, changing to S, SW, and finally NW. Sentinel-2 satellite imagery comparing 25 and 30 September showed the growth of the lava flow during that interval (figure 27). Strombolian and flow activity continued at the fissure vent on 30 September with new surges of activity sending fresh pulses of lava over existing flows (figure 28). The ocean delta continued to grow and reached a thickness of 24 m by the end of 30 September. Mapping of the flow indicated that 870 buildings had been destroyed and the flow covered 3.5 km 2 by midday on 30 September (figure 29).

Late on 30 September 2021 two new vents emerged about 600 m NW of the base of the main cone. They created a new flow about 450 m away from, and parallel to, the main flow that crossed a local highway by the next morning and continued moving W (figure 30). Multiple vents also remained active within and on the flank of the main cone. As of 1 October, the front of the delta was 475 m out from the coastline and 30 m deep. IGN concluded that the volume of material erupted through the end of September was approximately 80 million m 3 .

Geological Summary. The 47-km-long wedge-shaped island of La Palma, the NW-most of the Canary Islands, is composed of two large volcanic centers. The older northern one is cut by the steep-walled Caldera Taburiente, one of several massive collapse scarps produced by edifice failure to the SW. On the south, the younger Cumbre Vieja volcano is one of the most active in the Canaries. The elongated volcano dates back to about 125,000 years ago and is oriented N-S. Eruptions during the past 7,000 years have formed abundant cinder cones and craters along the axis, producing fissure-fed lava flows that descend steeply to the sea. Eruptions recorded since the 15th century have produced mild explosive activity and lava flows that damaged populated areas. The southern tip of the island is mantled by a broad lava field emplaced during the 1677-1678 eruption. Lava flows also reached the sea in 1585, 1646, 1712, 1949, 1971, and 2021.

Information Contacts: Instituto Geographico Nacional (IGN) , C/ General Ibáñez de Íbero 3, 28003 Madrid – España, (URL: https://www.ign.es/web/ign/portal, https://www.ign.es/web/resources/volcanologia/html/CA_noticias.html); Instituto Volcanologico de Canarias (INVOLCAN) (URL: https://www.involcan.org/, https://www.facebook.com/INVOLCAN, Twitter: INVOLCAN, @involcan); Steering Committee of the Special Plan for Civil Protection and Attention to Emergencies due to Volcanic Risk (PEVOLCA) , (URL: https://www3.gobiernodecanarias.org/noticias/los-planes-de-evacuacion-del-pevolca-evitan-danos-personales-en-la-erupcion-volcanica-de-la-palma/); NASA Global Sulfur Dioxide Monitoring Page , Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC), 8800 Greenbelt Road, Goddard, Maryland, USA (URL: https://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/); Copernicus EMS (URL: https://emergency.copernicus.eu/, https://twitter.com/CopernicusEMS ); Sentinel Hub Playground (URL: https://www.sentinel-hub.com/explore/sentinel-playground); Cabildo La Palma (URL: https://www.cabildodelapalma.es/es/algunas-de-las-imagenes-de-la-erupcion-volcanica-en-la-palma); El Periodico de Cataluny, S.L.U. (URL: https://www.elperiodico.com/es/fotos/sociedad/erupcion-palma-imagenes-12093812/12103264). Corporación de Radio y Televisión Española (RTVE) (URL: https://rtve.es, https://img2.rtve.es/imagenes/casas-todoque-alcanzadas-lava-este-miercoles-22-septiembre/1632308929494.jpg); Tom Pfeiffer , Volcano Discovery (URL: http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/); Volcanes de Canarias (URL:https://twitter.com/VolcansCanarias/status/1441711738983002114); Agence France-Presse (AFP) (URL: http://www.afp.com/ ); Bristol Flight Lab , University of Bristol, England (URL: www.https://flight-lab.bristol.ac.uk, https://twitter.com/UOBFlightLab).

ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Livelihoods, wellbeing and the risk to life during volcanic eruptions.

• 1 School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
• 2 School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
• 3 School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
• 4 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
• 5 British Geological Survey, Lyell Centre, Nottingham, United Kingdom
• 6 Seismic Research Centre, University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago

A forensic analysis of fatalities and displacements from recent volcanic eruptions (1986–2015) provides insights into factors that influence actions to protect life in high-risk environments. Unlike many other geophysical hazard events, volcanic eruptions may be prolonged, and of variable intensity. This is reflected in patterns of volcanic fatalities. A global survey reveals that 63% of primary volcanic deaths occur after the first week of activity, with >44% of these deaths associated with citizens returning to an established high-hazard zone. Evacuations during volcanic eruptions are protracted and this allows time for competing pressures to arise. Examination of detailed data from three volcanic crises (La Soufriere, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Soufrière Hills, Montserrat and Tungurahua, Ecuador) suggests that the need to preserve livelihoods plays a strong role in protecting life. A dynamic, associated with pull (e.g., protecting assets, place attachment) and push factors (e.g., poor shelter conditions), can draw evacuees to return during high-risk periods. Similar considerations can restrain people with previous experience of volcanic hazards and displacement, from evacuating. Our global analysis shows that these pressures, when coupled with forecasting uncertainties and the rapid landscape change associated with volcanic eruptions, mean that the physical and social vulnerability of populations change significantly during the course of an eruption. Ongoing risk to life is shaped by hazard experience and action; timescales of hazard escalation and their relationship to warning and action; and the timescales over which evacuation conditions are tolerable to livelihood and asset preservation, and mental and physical wellbeing in shelters.

Introduction

Globally some 800 million people live within 100 km of the world’s 1431 active volcanoes ( Brown et al., 2015 ); in developing countries alone some 722 million are exposed to volcanic hazards ( Worldbank Voices, 2017 ). Violent volcanic disasters that capture the headlines – conspicuous mass mortality events like those at Mount Pelée (Martinique, 1902; Tanguy, 1994 ) or Nevado Del Ruiz (Colombia, 1985; Voight, 1990 ) – are comparatively rare, and are perhaps best viewed as extreme end-members of the spectrum of consequences of volcanic activity and its attendant risks. Most recorded eruptions have a duration of between 1 and 6 months ( Siebert et al., 2010 ), but the variance in timespan can extend from individual pulses of activity that sometimes last less than a few minutes (e.g., Tongariro, New Zealand, Scott and Potter, 2014 ) to activity ongoing for decades (e.g., Soufrière Hills, Montserrat, Wadge et al., 2014 ) or even centuries (e.g., Kilauea, Hawai’i, Babb et al., 2011 ). Landscape and infrastructure devastation resulting from volcanic activity can be locally complete (e.g., Merapi, Indonesia, Mei et al., 2013 ; Plymouth, Montserrat, Loughlin et al., 2002 ), or partial (within the footprint of tephra fallout, for example, Gudmundsson et al., 2010 ). Larger volcanic events are capable of global disruption through the injection of ash and sulfate into the upper atmosphere ( Oppenheimer, 2003 ), but volcanic risk on the ground can extend well beyond the reach of newly erupted materials, for example via hazards from re-mobilization of deposited material (lahars, Scott, 1988 ) and the inherent instability of volcanic edifices (ranging from small landslides to sector collapse; van Wyk de Vries et al., 2000 ; Donnadieu et al., 2001 ).

Recent analyses of volcanic fatalities and risk ( Auker et al., 2013 ; Brown et al., 2017 ) demonstrate that the annualized rate of volcanic fatalities has declined in the last few decades, perhaps indicating the inherent value of improved monitoring, hazard assessment, awareness and communication processes ( Brown et al., 2017 ). However, the conditions that turn hazardous activity into a volcanic disaster are also a construction of pre-existing social circumstances, limited capacities and inadequate responses, even when good monitoring systems are in place ( Andreastuti et al., 2018 ). Given the relatively protracted timescales of volcanic eruptions and the inherent uncertainty in forecasting eruption onset and impacts, interactions between the physical and social dimensions of risk during an unfolding eruptive event can be fundamental in creating or prolonging disaster ( Hicks and Few, 2015 ; Few et al., 2017 ). Thus, a lack of knowledge of these interactions may reduce capacity to manage ongoing risk and contribute to the loss that continues to be experienced during volcanic eruptions.

We seek to understand the interactions that contribute to volcanic risk during eruptions, where risk is considered to be the interaction of hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability is to a large extent a socially generated condition and is shaped differentially both by physical and social structures, and by aspects of human agency ( Few et al., 2017 ). So, in the context of long-lived emergencies the cumulative outcomes on vulnerability can be viewed via impacts to wellbeing and access to livelihood security ( Wisner et al., 2004 ; Kelman and Mather, 2008 ), and this is how we have framed the social outcomes from eruptive activity in this paper.

We begin with a global analysis of the factors behind loss of life during recent ‘fatal’ eruptions, and consider the extent to which factors that influence loss of life also reflect other losses (economic, social and cultural) experienced during volcanic eruptions. The role that acting to preserve a way of life - whether through economic necessity or personal preference - plays in increasing personal risk is often noted for individual cases (e.g., Loughlin et al., 2002 ; Mei et al., 2013 ) but, to date, has not been subjected to a global analysis which we report here. We then consider evidence from three volcanic eruptions to understand in more detail the interactions between physical and social drivers of risk, the extent to which these changed during the course of each volcanic emergency, and to what extent the impacts are socially differentiated.

We argue that the new insights this produces can be used to inform adaptations and coping strategies before and during volcanic eruptions, with the aim of improving societal resilience to volcanic risk.

Materials and Methods

Lethal volcanic events.

We began by recording all fatalities beginning with the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program reporting on fatal events, and the databases of Witham (2005) and Brown et al. (2017) for the time period 1985–2015. Focusing on those events where primary volcanic activity resulted in five or more fatalities we then interrogated the secondary data (contemporary news reports, reporting from humanitarian organizations) and peer-reviewed literature to understand the context in which these fatalities occurred. We focused on five or more fatalities to exclude a higher proportion of events where the cause of death or the occurrence of deaths were more ambiguous or less well documented. Multiple documentary sources become more frequent as fatality numbers rise. This also tended to exclude events where the fatality has occurred as a result of a freak accident rather than a more usual eruptive episode. While incidents with five or more fatalities are better reported there are still discrepancies, even between online databases. We used Brown et al. (2017) as our primary information source and triangulated our data with that and their sources (where they differed). Where a discrepancy existed we cross-checked and adjusted both databases, making a judgment as to the most likely reported figure, using the criteria developed by Brown et al. (2017) .

Qualitative Interview Data and Evacuation Patterns

The three case studies draw on qualitative data from a number of sources. The analyses of drivers for evacuation behavior are synthesized from thematic analysis of interviews and focus groups and supplemented by data from household surveys and the peer reviewed literature that draws on further sources. In Montserrat the synthesis arises from 16 key informant interviews with members of the Montserratian community, government representatives in Montserrat, and the United Kingdom-based Montserratian community. These interviews were preceded by a 2-day forensic workshop with 70 community representatives, government officials, disaster managers, and scientists. In St. Vincent, data were derived from 46 semi-structured interviews, 5 group interviews (41 people in total) and a 400 household survey with residents of the North of the island. In Ecuador we conducted 67 semi structured interviews and a 411 household survey with residents of the slopes of the volcano Tungurahua and local authorities. Synthesized findings from St. Vincent and Ecuador can be found in the reports of Armijos and Few (2015 , 2016) . The analysis of timelines of evacuation data is largely sourced from locally held reports of evacuation numbers. For St. Vincent these focused on documentary evidence ( FCO 63/882, 1971 ; FCO 63/883, 1971 ; FCO 44/2030, 1979 ; FCO 44/2031, 1979 ) from the United Kingdom National Archives and for Montserrat from data sourced from Hicks and Few (2015) , and legislative orders relating to evacuated boundary change.

Displacements and Disruption

Displacements are less well documented than fatalities but our starting point was the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) database. These record an annual total of ‘emergencies’ which are triggered by one of: the occurrence of 10 or more fatalities, an ‘affected population’ of more than 100 or the declaration of an emergency by the local government ( EM-DAT, 2019 ). The metrics documented by EM-DAT are ‘affected population’ and ‘homeless,’ so evacuation figures were inferred by cross reference with the contemporaneous reporting to the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program, and the reporting on ReliefWeb. ReliefWeb is a specialized digitized service of the United Nations Office for Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA). The aim of the ReliefWeb is to provide reliable and timely information in the face of humanitarian emergencies and the information is largely aimed at those who will have to make decisions in the face of those emergencies. Thus, it largely consists of archived ‘situation reports’ from humanitarian organizations and non-governmental agencies, and new organizations designated as trusted information sources by the UN-OCHA. There is a functional bias in the reporting here toward the early phase of emergencies as reports and bulletins are issued as sense is made of the situation and to seek external assistance. In addition to this we also looked at digitally archived newspaper reports and retrospective accounts and research papers. We started by considering all events with reported evacuations but there are often conflicting data and missing reports between these events so we focused on those events that are now well written about in the research literature by interdisciplinary teams seeking to understand the lessons to be learned from these events (see list in the Supplementary Tables ). These research based studies tended to involve both survey and qualitative data collected from the affected communities themselves along with locally sourced data on evacuated numbers and calculated or estimated economic losses. We uncovered these research-based analyses by searching using the volcano name and the terms ‘evacuation’ and ‘social’ and ‘impact’ in citation databases. Thus we subsequently focused on the evacuations where we can use these analyses to understand the extent that the dominant drivers identified by us in our study regions are behind actions to evacuate, and/or the defiance of evacuation orders globally. The outcomes of these analyses and summaries of key findings of the complete set of evacuations we surveyed globally are presented in Supplementary Tables S1a,b . A useful expansion of this exercise would be a more complete survey of all reported evacuations (including those not yet explicitly examined in the research-based literature).

Spatial and Temporal Analyses of Specific Evacuation

Our analysis (reported in the discussion and in Figure 4 ) of the evolution of distance between evacuated and non-evacuated population is compiled from the reports in the SI GVP that indicated length of flows, evacuated zone footprint building locations. This is supplemented by detailed reports of the Montserrat Volcano Observatory, and Unzen Fugendake Eruption Disaster Study Group (2007) .

Analyzing Lethal Volcanic Events Since 1985: Examining Risk to Life and Risk to Livelihood

The full social and economic cost of volcanic eruptions is little analyzed but it is clear that the numbers of people impacted by disruption to life and livelihoods, through evacuation or destruction of land and resources, is poorly captured in simple tallies of fatalities. A recent analysis of volcanic fatalities identifies the distance and distribution of fatalities around volcanoes and the activities of the victims at the time of impact ( Auker et al., 2013 ). This characterizes the typical volcanic threat at differing distances from the volcano and the identified groups likely to be exposed to volcanic hazards by their activities. We build on this analysis by considering fatalities in the context of the remaining exposed population, and in particular the relationship with warnings and evacuation processes. An overview of results and the sources used are given in Table 1 .

Table 1. Analysis of affected populations for primary volcanic activity with >5 associated fatalities since the mass casualty event of Nevado del Ruiz in 1985.

Between 1986 and 2015 there were 7,043 deaths recorded from direct and indirect volcanic activity worldwide ( Brown et al., 2017 ). We focus here on primary volcanic activity and those events with five or more deaths which account for 1,282 fatalities. These represent 18% of the total, with indirect activity (e.g., floods, lahars, landslides) accounting for 81% and events with five or fewer casualties the remaining 1%. Here, we focus on fatalities by primary activity but acknowledge the importance of multiple-interacting hazards (particularly between volcanic activity and hydro-meteorological hazards). Deaths via primary hazard are the best reported and through them we are able to understand the drivers behind them and consider how this would also apply to the indirect activity. Typically indirect fatalities happen across even longer time-scales than primary fatalities, and so social processes associated with wellbeing and secure livelihoods are even more likely to be a driver for risky behavior. However, warnings and evacuations procedures for some of these hazards may be less well developed, so there may be some limitations to this assumption.

The incidents compiled in Table 1 detail the toll in lives, but at least a further 1.17 million persons were reported to be displaced from their homes at the same moment as the fatalities occurred, with many more impacted during the lifetime of these eruptions. Thus, for these events, fatalities amount to only around 0.01% of the affected populations, many of whom will have had their lives seriously disrupted and their livelihoods jeopardized. Nonetheless, focusing on events with multiple fatalities provides insights into the drivers behind the societal impacts of these events. We argue that the more fully recorded fatalities, and locations and activities of those impacted can serve as indicators of the less well-recorded motivations and pressures on the larger affected populations. This provides us with an initial understanding of how populations expose themselves to volcanic risk and the coincidence of factors that lead to fatalities.

For 35% of these events, there was insufficient time or systems in place for warnings of any type to be called. Where warnings were in place, the pattern of fatal incidents shows a strong association with individuals neglecting those warnings, and instead acting to protect their assets and livelihoods in the face of hazardous volcanic activity. Figure 1 illustrates the relationship between the recorded eruption start date and the occurrence of fatalities: 63% of fatal incidents happen more than one week after the recognized onset of activity. The time-distribution of fatalities relative to onset broadly echoes that of the time-distribution of paroxysmal (or most violent) activity relative to eruption onset, based on all historical events ( Siebert et al., 2010 ).

Figure 1. Distribution of the timing of fatalities relative to the start of eruptions. ‘Paroxsyms’ are the occurrence of more violent volcanic activity during a longer sequence of eruption as defined and reported in Siebert et al. (2015) . Distribution from 252 events of known duration and intensity in historical record. Fatality timing uses data in Table 1 , expressed as % of events and % of overall number of fatalities.

Together these data suggest that a significant portion of deaths could be a consequence of: refusal of some people to evacuate; creeping population return to evacuated zones, to protect assets and preserve livelihoods; or escape from squalid or intolerable temporary accommodation conditions; insufficient mitigation or warning for ‘larger than usual’ events. These constitute a multi-faceted hydra of factors that collectively either push individuals and communities to leave safe areas or pull them back (or to remain in) hazardous zones. Moreover, given the prolonged or intermittently repeating sequences typical of volcanic activity the rate and number of re-entries to threatened areas will be likely be highly dynamic. In the next section we consider the extent to which these factors are revealed in a more detailed data set.

Qualitative Interview Data From Soufriere Hills, Montserrat, La Soufriere, St. Vincent and Tungurahua, Ecuador: Further Revelations on the Push and Pull, Life and Livelihood

To understand the nature and relative importance of these push and pull factors across differing contexts and demographic groups, we now consider details from three case studies, two long-lived and one shorter duration: Soufrière Hills, Montserrat (1995–2000 Phase 1); Tungurahua, Ecuador (1999–2014) and La Soufrière, St. Vincent (1979). We selected these eruptions because we have detailed information on the evacuations over time, supplemented by interviews, survey and focus groups that uncover attitudes, motivations and views from across several demographic groups. Chiefly this involves those who would be or were evacuated in response to heightened, but not necessarily paroxysmal, activity ( Armijos and Few, 2015 ; Hicks and Few, 2015 ; Wilkinson, 2015 ; Armijos and Few, 2016 ; Few et al., 2017 ). The detailed evacuation pattern for two of these eruptions is illustrated in Figure 2 , along with data from another recent evacuation (Merapi, 2010; Mei et al., 2013 ) to demonstrate that patterns of duration, and variability are not specific to the Caribbean.

Figure 2. Details of pattern of evacuation and population in shelters for Montserrat, St. Vincent and Java during the eruptions of Soufrière Hills, Soufrière and Merapi respectively. Data on shelter numbers is as follows St. Vincent (1979)-FCO44/2030 and 2031(54) (1971), FCO63/882, 883(55) and 1022, Montserrat Clay et al. (1999) . Merapi is from Mei et al. (2013) . Fatalities at Montserrat were due to the paroxysmal eruption of 25 June 1997. Fatalities at Merapi were caused both by the rapid-onset eruption (October 26) and the later paroxysm (November 4–5, 2010).

Pull and Push Factors

A detailed examination of timings and evacuation patterns mirrors the bulk data with long duration (>1 week) evacuations through which eruptive behavior varies. In the case of these archetypes, the fatalities (at Merapi and SHV) are both associated with paroxysmal activity that occurred some days (Merapi) or years (SHV) after the start of eruption and the first evacuations ( Figure 2 ). From our interview data, the strongest pull factors for return to high-risk zones at these volcanoes relate to a desire to protect assets and reduce income losses, reinforced by people’s sense of attachment to home. It is important to note that attachment to place can also include the attraction of the traditional way of life, and the wellbeing and sense of purpose that arises in living in close proximity to kin and ancestral lands. Push factors prompting people to leave shelters were associated principally with cases in which shelter provision was poorly organized or under-resourced, resulting in prolonged reduction of wellbeing, health and personal security.

St. Vincent

During the evacuation periods in St. Vincent ( Figure 2 ) many people made occasional visits by day to their properties, both to protect their livestock, crops and homes, but also because these were the places they felt at home, the places with which they identified a sense of wellbeing and normalized social relations, but which they perceived were badly damaged or under threat.

The day that local residents were evacuated from their villages they were instructed to let their animals loose so that they could freely roam and feed. As a result, crop damage by ashfall was exacerbated by foraging livestock. Moreover, large numbers of livestock were lost because of illness, lack of water, and theft. As one evacuee noted:

Well people lost crops, and many people lost their animals from death and from stealing. Most people had let go their animals and people used the opportunity to steal. … That is what people said. But I think other people just killed animals and eat them as well

Woman from Troumaka. 13 August 2014

As Cato (1979) noted, theft of property, including burglary of shops was reported as widespread. This was also highlighted during the interviews we conducted with local residents:

People who were outside the village would go to your house once the house is closed and steal away your things

Man from Rose Bank, 1 August 2014

At the same time the general conditions and organization of shelters on the island were often difficult. In 1979, about two thirds of the evacuees stayed in 59 designated shelters, and the remaining one third at family or friend’s homes ( Gueri et al., 1982 ). During up to 6 months of stay in the shelters the most common distresses people faced were: lack of space, lack of privacy, children’s illnesses and weak logistical organization.

I think because it was the first experience I don’t think the camps were well organized. There was a lot of chaos. The priority should have been on the people who evacuated from outside the area. But even people from the area were competing with people in the camps, maybe asking for food. Some camps were well run others were not depending on the individuals.

Man from Petit Bordel, 14’ August 2014

In the case of Montserrat, returns by some people into the exclusion zone proved fatal ( Table 1 and Figure 2 ). For the majority of evacuees, a return home was not an option because of the devastation of settlements, but for those who owned farm plots with standing crops in the hills the pull was substantial. Farmers were seldom able to establish new sites of production during the prolonged evacuation period and, as the food supply situation in the shelters began to deteriorate, it made strong economic sense for them to re-enter the high-risk area to harvest standing crops before they perished.

… “we were seeing guys come in with foot and a half long carrots and we’d say hey, where was this grown and they’d say right up there [the exclusion zone]… the government agreed let us take some money and purchase some of the crops from them so that at least they could harvest and have some income and [for] the people in the shelter at least we could change the diet a little bit and make it a little easier …

(Community Services Employee, September 2012).

The inquest into the 19 fatalities that occurred on 25th June 1997 determined that the failure of British and Montserratian governments to provide land for displaced farmers had contributed to nine of the deaths.

In tandem with the pull factor of standing crops, so the conditions of shelter life became a push factor for people to re-enter the exclusion zone ( Loughlin et al., 2002 ; Hicks and Few, 2015 ). The authorities struggled to find adequate shelter for evacuees in designated emergency shelters such as schools and churches, erecting tents in the early stages, followed by metal prefabricated structures and timber chalets. Funding for emergency housing was not allocated until July 1997. Clay et al. (1999 , p. 34) report that: “The public shelter program was basically successful in providing everyone with immediate shelter, but was unsatisfactory in providing for more extended occupation.” However, most shelter types were used for extended periods of time, amid reports of a general squalor, compounded by hygiene, food supply, mental health and security issues, including incidences of aggression, sexual abuse and rape.

…“ Now a church is designed to have a 2 h, at the most, celebration, and you return home. But when you convert that now to a place where folk are living, no partitions, and the restroom facilities were not designed for 60-100 people.”

(Community Services Employee, September, 2012)

The disposal of human waste was a major problem, possibly contributing to the increased levels of gastro-intestinal diseases recorded during the crises.

“The sanitation consisted of pit latrines less than 2 m deep. They were intended to be in use for 2 days. They were, in fact, used for more than 2 years.”

(56, Patullo, 2000 , p. 94).

At Tungurahua, management of the initial evacuation process by Ecuadorean national and local authorities led to a combination of push/pull factors that created a major story of mass protest and return to the environs of the volcano.

After the reactivation of the volcano in September 1999, an evacuation order was applied to all settlements on or close to the slopes of Tungurahua, including the town of Banos de Agua Santa, a major tourism destination. Within three months of the evacuation, strong voices of dissent about the continuing exclusion from their residences were circulating among evacuees, prompted by the pull of lost income and concerns over abandoned property, and the push of inadequate shelter assistance and provision, plus the failure by that time of the eruption to escalate as initially feared. People began to challenge the evacuation order and confront those guarding the exclusion zone in a bid to return, and in January 2000 the authorities lifted restrictions and allowed the return process to begin ( Tobin and Whiteford, 2002 ; Mothes et al., 2015 ).

Subsequent events at Tungurahua, however, showed a marked change in the public acceptance of evacuation and in people’s cognitive-behavioral relations with the volcano. Detailed analysis of the relationship between evacuations, eruptive behavior and warning and monitoring demonstrates this evolution ( Armijos et al., 2017 ). In August 2006, six people died ( Table 1 ) when returning to protect their assets, after evacuation on that day. Subsequently self-evacuation and the co-creation of an adaptive management system was facilitated by the building of re-settlement homes and further improvements to an informal monitoring network involving scientists and members of the community ( Armijos et al., 2017 ).

Role of Knowledge and Experience

In both St. Vincent and Montserrat people made decisions over time to return to their homes or land in the high-risk zones, but it is the story of Tungurahua’s prolonged eruptive period in which many people have co-existed with intermittent volcanic activity that is most illuminating in terms of how people draw on knowledge and experience in their relation with risk.

After the initial events of 1999, drawing on a mix of scientific advice, training and their own experience and understanding as the eruptive phase unfolded, people began to develop their own knowledge of the volcano’s behavior ( Mothes et al., 2015 ). They began to weigh up for themselves when to evacuate. In a survey of residents, 62% said they have evacuated or are willing to do on a voluntary basis – taking action even before the authorities have called for an evacuation.

Yes we are used to it, and have the experience. Now everyone knows and if they see anything unusual they leave. People leave before they are told to do so [ … ]. When people feel something, you would see the buses in the afternoons full of people going to sleep in Penipe. When they feel something is going to happen they also put their animals closer to their home in safer areas.

Woman from Choglontus, 20 , February 2014

Improved monitoring and a network of community-based observers have helped develop this capacity ( Stone et al., 2014 ), but it is important to emphasize that this knowledge is something over which people themselves feel they have ownership. It is theirs as much as it is the scientists and authorities. It empowers people to take responsibility for the decisions they make themselves about their lives and activities. They decide when and why they stay in the high risk zone and make decisions relating to what to do with their animals and crops, depending on the perceived activity level of the volcano.

Two key things are worth pointing out here. First, in developing their knowledge, people learned that they could take action to mitigate the impacts of evacuation (and thereby reduce the pull factors for unsafe return) – including putting their animals in safe locations before leaving the area. Second, this sense of empowerment in large part depended on them having a known and secure shelter option (thereby reducing the push factors), in this case often the resettlement homes provided by the state in neighboring districts ( Armijos et al., 2017 ).

Although people base their decisions on a combination of their experiences and information from authorities/scientists, their interpretations can also be hazardous in themselves, particularly in cases when the volcano activity level rapidly accelerated. This was the case during the February 2014 eruption, which caught most people by surprise and left the community of Cusúa ‘trapped’ between two pyroclastic flows. Put in a different way, experience and knowledge is an important element of people’s ability to cope with long term exposure to volcanic activity of the same magnitude as they have experienced until now (VEI 1-3), but does not necessarily prepare them well for activity of significantly greater magnitude.

In summary, our data reveal that recent fatalities during volcanic eruptions have an association with their longevity and variability. Furthermore these fatalities are a reflection of wider decision-making in response to these eruptions. During comparatively long-lived episodes cumulative push and pull factors generate increasing impetus to return to high risk zones. Pull factors arise from: the need to protect livelihoods and assets (in the context of our case studies often crops and livestock); and attachment to place and community. Push factors relate to poor shelter conditions including: overcrowding and poor sanitation, boredom and mental health issues and inadequate access to food, water and hygiene.

Shared solutions need to be robust to coping with the considerable uncertainties associated with volcanic activity, and aware of the ‘push and pull factors’ associated with reoccupying prohibited land.

Displacements and Disruption: Implications for Actions for Return to Hazardous Zones

To consider the extent to which the push and pull factors from our case studies are context dependent or representative of conditions during volcanic activity we also examined events for which there is a record of displacement as the result of volcanic activity for the same period worldwide. These are synthesized in Figure 3 , more detailed data are found in Supplementary Table S1 .

Figure 3. Global comparison of pull–push drivers behind evacuations 1986–2015 where analysis of social drivers behind decision-making is available. Evacuations refers to peak no. of people evacuated, duration is typically median amount, return reporting is often less detailed. Further details are in Supplementary Tables . ‘UK’ in some segments mean ‘unknown’ (no analysis of push or pull drivers). Note here an absence of factors may mean an absence of reporting rather than lack of occurrence where one or two drivers have been reported.

The reporting of evacuation processes is asymmetric: information on numbers displaced tends to be good at the beginning of the process, becoming less detailed as evacuated numbers decline. Often the ‘end date’ for evacuation is not reported, particularly when houses and settlements are permanently destroyed as the result of activity. We have compiled most reliably gathered metrics around evacuation for the period 1985–2015 these were decided on after our synthesis of the research literature. They are listed in the Supplementary Table S1 , along with the source references. These include, the duration of the event, the triggering activity for an evacuation, evacuation duration and numbers evacuated (most typically at the evacuation ‘peak,’ the degree of compliance with the evacuation, and the extent to which the push and pull factors we have identified are noted in these global case studies). These numbers are not always reported but represent the most consistent analyses that we were able to glean from the research literature (which was often written with a different purpose than that of our analysis here); further notes on these data and all data sources are provided in the Supplementary Table S1 . The locations of our global analyses, identified push and pull factors, peak evacuation numbers and evacuation style and numbers are illustrated in Figure 3 .

Collectively, these data underline a key finding from the data on fatalities: there are many more events with a significant impact on livelihoods than fatal events alone. With the caveat that few evacuations last for <24 h, volcanic evacuation data broadly mirrors the distribution of eruption duration and fatalities in Figure 1 with 8 evacuations in each of the 8–31 days and 1–6 month length categories of the Smithsonian dataset ( Siebert et al., 2010 ) from the 22 events documented in Supplementary Table S1a . A significant proportion of eruptions involve permanent relocation or protracted or repeated evacuations ( Supplementary Table S1 ). We have divided the data into ‘recurrent’ eruptions (those volcanoes with discrete evacuation and eruption episodes during the evacuation time interval) and one-off or persistent eruptions (those volcanoes with single, intense but short-lived episodes or longer-lived episodes where social response or eruptive behavior is harder to discretize).

The available data on evacuation numbers and compliance demonstrate that the recorded fatalities in Table 1 only represent a small proportion of the population who are moved from, but then choose to re-enter or remain in hazardous zones. Most analyses report a sometimes significant proportion who do not evacuate at all and a more significant drift back to hazardous zones after 1 or 2 days ( Supplementary Table S1 ). Where an important ‘pull’ is tending to crops or livestock, there can be significant numbers who return to high hazard zones during daylight hours but remain in shelters overnight (e.g., Figure 3 and our data for St Vincent, Tungurahua).

The Role of Our Identified Pull and Push Factors in Increasing Risk to Life

The push and pull factors that we identified in our detailed study regions are also prevalent across other volcanic regions, in differing development contexts ( Figure 3 ). Considerable theoretical and empirical effort has been extended worldwide in understanding the disadvantages associated with displacement arising from natural and social risks, particularly in a developing world context ( Wisner et al., 2012 ). Critically, many point to the paradox of risks to livelihood and human security being created by the need to leave the risky environment. In particular, a global analysis of displaced populations resulted in the widely used Impoverishment Risks and Reconstruction (IRR) model ( Cernea, 1997 ; Cernea and Macdowell, 2000 ). This identifies eight components that could contribute to impoverishment in displaced or resettled populations: (a) landlessness, (b) joblessness, (c) homelessness and (d) marginalization (e) food insecurity (f) increased morbidity (g) loss of access to common property resources and (h) community disarticulation.

In a volcanic context arguably the volcanic activity itself is an agent for (a) and (c) in its own right ( Supplementary Tables S1a,b ) but one of our key arguments here is that the desire to act against these components of impoverishment, interfere with an otherwise apparently more logical desire to preserve life. Our analyses demonstrate that the loss of community and place (h), and the social and physical resources (g) associated with them has a very strong role to play regardless of degree of economic development.

Similarly anxiety around food security and joblessness is reflected in the desire to work the land and attend to livestock against hazard advice in many settings. It is also implicit in the push to leave shelters that have inadequate resources, provide little personal privacy and are dislocated from normal income-generating opportunities. The majority of the communities in our analyses are rural in nature, with sources of income and livelihood that are physically and socially linked with the land and ‘fixed’ to the place of normal residence. A useful extension of this work would be to consider the extent to which this relationship between livelihood security, wellbeing and risk to life prevails as strongly in an urban context, where livelihoods are less intimately associated with ‘home’ and land. There is considerable evidence that all of these processes act to amplify pre-existing inequalities ( Hicks and Few, 2015 ; Few et al., 2017 ) and thus contribute to the marginalization of some sectors of communities at risk. Given the protracted nature of volcanic crises important lessons could be transferred between these and crises not associated with the occurrence of natural hazards (war, famine, climate-induced change).

Over the past 30 years livelihood diversification in developing economies has created risk as well as opportunity for communities around volcanoes. This trajectory is most clearly seen for volcanoes with repeat eruptions across this time period. Tourists are drawn to the spectacle of a volcanic landscape ( Bachri et al., 2015 ; Wardhani et al., 2017 ) and bring with them opportunities to act as their guide or to provide services to the passing traffic. This provides a strong incentive to continue to live and work in high hazard zones. For example, in an analysis of land resource management around Kelud volcano, Wardhani et al. (2017) identify a near doubling of visitors between 2010 and 2014 and highlight the particular draw of a volcanic landscape in the few years immediately succeeding an eruption as a strong incentive to exploit this interest. Tourism was also a strong incentive to re-occupy land on Fogo ( de Castro and Martins, 2018 ) and Merapi ( Mei et al., 2016 ).

The exploitation of mineral resources, and more frequently sand mining also acts as a pull for (at least temporary) re-occupation of high risk areas, and particularly the narrow high risk avenues associated with lahar pathways around volcanoes ( De Bélizal et al., 2012 ). Further, the damage associated with high intensity haulage traffic from larger-scale quarrying operation has also damaged roads, thereby decreasing evacuation efficiency during emergencies ( Blake et al., 2015 ). Where livelihood diversification and increase in asset ownership had occurred, subsequently a greater will was also expressed in interviews to protect those assets in situ ( De Bélizal et al., 2011 , 2012 and our case studies of St. Vincent). Though there have been studies published that challenge the ‘looting’ myth ( Quarantelli, 2001 ), nonetheless this analysis suggests that asset protection – real or perceived – exerts a strong control on decision-making (e.g., our detailed case studies and e.g., Rabaul, Nyiragongo). The drive to be present to protect against looting reinforces the value of returning for cleaning and maintenance in the face of persistent volcanic activity.

There are also recurrent push factors associated with unsatisfactory shelter conditions and the problems associated with the long-term support of additional populations. Tensions may even arise between the evacuated and host community (e.g., Manam). A less dramatic but nonetheless important push that has been identified is the boredom and lack of purpose (‘ennui’) associated with long days in the shelter with little productive work on which to focus ( Christia, 2012 ; Mei et al., 2016 ). This acts as an incentive to satisfy curiosity and seek occupation by visiting the evacuated zone, consistent with the ‘joblessness’ issue identified in the IRR model ( Cernea and Macdowell, 2000 ).

The most positive coping strategies seem to have emerged around the ‘pairing of settlements’ in and outside the hazard zone, where physical common ground exists that can be cultivated and used and where social common ground exists or has been created in advance of the evacuation period ( Andreastuti et al., 2018 , our Tungurahua case study). Indeed, a striking feature of the repeat eruptions in Figure 3 where re-settlement sites have been created is the extent to which these become ‘second homes’ for temporary occupation during higher level emergency, rather than at all times. This is not true homogeneously across any population, but is evident in Mayon, Tungurahua, Manam, Fogo, Merapi and Rabaul ( Supplementary Table S1 ). This is secondary evidence for the strong pull that higher-risk land around the volcano can exert.

Collectively, these data suggest that the need to sustain livelihoods and wellbeing has a strong role to play in decision-making and actions that endanger life during volcanic crises. In the immediacy of a crisis (hours) it is possible to prioritize actions to save life but the evidence presented here suggests that within only a few days, for some sectors of the population, the immediate danger is outweighed by other considerations. Decisions to move back into the higher risk zone, whether permanently or transiently, are not always compatible with the eruptive pattern of the volcano, and fatalities then ensue both directly ( Table 1 ) and as the result of later indirect hazards. Dynamism is not restricted to hazard exposure but also to social and physical vulnerability during and between eruptive episodes. Critical to improving outcomes (in terms of loss of life and implicitly resource and wellbeing) is the development of a shared knowledge of the push and pull factors behind the refusal to leave or the reoccupation of risky territories, in conjunction with developing warning and evacuation mechanisms that are robust to the salient uncertainties of volcanic activity, as exemplified in our Ecuadorean case study. Further, this knowledge must not be a static entity but one that responds both to changing capacity to forecast activity and to changing vulnerabilities of the population at risk.

We will now consider the mechanisms for improving ‘life outcomes’ in the face of volcanic activity suggested by our analysis.

Experience, Knowledge and Warnings ‘In Time’

A striking feature of the global dataset is the extent to which evacuations can be prompted by the occurrence of surface activity (dataset in Supplementary Table S1 ). Large-scale evacuations rarely occur during pre-eruption unrest, even when volcanoes are well monitored, and there are only few well-documented instances of pre-emptive evacuations happening in the absence of any subsequent eruption. A significant proportion of these events also represent spontaneous evacuation. Like our case study volcanoes, local populations develop a strong experiential knowledge of volcanic behavior at frequently active volcanoes. This is referred to by Bankoff (2001) as a ‘culture of disaster,’ and these informal systems of warning and action demonstrate a solid foundation on which to build; although it typically involves evacuation prompted by the onset of surface activity. The call to integrate this experiential knowledge with scientific warning networks is not new (e.g., Dove and Hudayana, 2008 ) or unique to volcanic settings.

However, although experience strongly relates to the ‘most likely’ eruptive behavior, our evidence suggests it does not incorporate ‘maximum expected’ behavior or even paroxysmal activity. Further, many volcanic systems are characterized by common low-lying (or orographic) cloud or even intense rainfall which can obstruct lines of sight to early signs of renewed activity, reducing time-scales for action. Significant difficulties (and fatalities) can ensue with even the most aware population when eruptive activity exceeds expectations; and trust eroded when it does not live up to them. For example, at Merapi in 2010 the rapid evacuation of a wider area led to confusion and some fatalities, and had repercussions for the multiple relocation of displaced populations ( Mei et al., 2013 ; Bakkour et al., 2015 ; Warsini et al., 2015 ). Similarly, at Tungurahua fatalities ensued when eruptive activity in 2006 surpassed past experience and impacted zones beyond the existing knowledge network ( Armijos et al., 2017 ). Conversely, at Kelud and Karthala significant issues with trust and compliance developed when activity was initially milder than anticipated from previous episodes ( Morin and Lavigne, 2009 ; De Bélizal et al., 2011 ).

Thus we can point in the direction where critical inroads can be made in achieving effective integration. We need to focus on healing the disjunct between experiential knowledge and that of the impacts of larger scale events. The greater mass of experiential knowledge is usually enjoyed by the communities around any one volcano and the critical mass of knowledge of larger events typically resides with scientists responsible for monitoring risk. Shared risk cultures should find ways to integrate these domains to embrace uncertainty around warning times and eruption size, and enable communities to plan for and respond to larger than normal eruptive episodes. Thus, clearer knowledge of time-scales for evacuation and their relationship to likely timescales around warning would be particularly useful.

A ‘disaster culture’ is not just restricted to knowledge relating to risks but also creates positive bonds with the risky environment, and often the volcano itself ( Neumann, 1996 ; Dove and Hudayana, 2008 ; Christia, 2012 ). This connectivity can create shared common identities between communities living there so that ‘ place attachment is not solely a relationship between people and their environment (physical attachment), but is enforced through the dynamic relationships of people living in the same environment’ ( Warsini et al., 2015 ). This social and physical attachment is almost always identified as a pull to re-occupy high-hazard zones across settings (referred to as ‘place’ in Figure 3 ). These relationships to people and land include attachment to traditional practices, spiritual associations with place and the wellbeing associated with living in proximity to kin. Several of our fatal events documented this type of place attachment as the root of some risky decision-making (e.g., Montserrat, Loughlin et al., 2002 ); and is robust to economic context (see e.g., Unzen, Chaiten and Eyjafjallajökull in Supplementary Table S1 ).

This also complicates responses to interventions that seek to create livelihood alternatives in lower-risk locations. Members of communities can continue to occupy high hazard zones despite the rehousing of cattle, provision of new grounds for crops or even new settlements (e.g., Merapi, Andreastuti et al., 2017 ; Tungurahua, Armijos and Few, 2015 ; Manam, Connell and Lutkehaus, 2016 ). This suggests risk management strategies need to respond to and embrace the dynamic attachments associated with the high-risk environment as well as the knowledge associated with experience of it.

Many of these studies feature people who remain in the immediate vicinity of volcanoes despite prolonged activity or threat. They represent a particular sub-set of the population who either chose to live with the threat, or are in social circumstances where that choice is not available. Further insights into coping with volcanic disruption could be gained via detailed examination of those who chose to minimize risk via out-migration.

Dynamic Risks in Volcanic Contexts: Timescales of Warning and Threat

Evacuations due to volcanic activity usually last for much longer time periods than those associated with other intensive hazard events, typically from days for hurricanes ( Lindell et al., 2011 ) and days to a few weeks for floods and flash-floods ( Haynes et al., 2009 ). We have already noted that the distribution of fatalities, eruption time-scales, paroxysmal activity and evacuations are broadly consistent: many eruptive episodes can persist for months or even years. The empirical evidence from actual decisions to evacuate, and population ‘drift back’ during eruptive episodes suggests that the practical tolerance of actions to preserve life for significant sectors of the population are of the order of hours and days.

In practice this apparent paradox is dealt with via the use of ‘staged’ evacuations and sectoral management of risk. Where this is practiced or has been developed we have analyzed the relationship between hazard (maximum runout of lava or pyroclastic flows) and risk outcome (nearest occupied settlement or furthest unoccupied house) over time ( Figure 4 ).

Figure 4. Normalized buffer zone length against normalized duration of eruption for three eruptions that experienced staged evacuations. The normalized buffer zone length is the ratio of the length of the buffer zone (the shortest distance between the active surface flows and a non-evacuated population), and the maximum length of the buffer zone at any point during the eruption. The buffer zone length changes over time with both the volcanic activity and decisions to evacuate and reoccupy different 15 areas. The maximum buffer zone length and duration of the eruptions are 2.1 km and 4 months for Unzen, 6.6 km and 13 years for SHV and 10.0 km and 16 days for Merapi. Normalized data show that trends in buffer zone length changes over eruption duration are similar for eruptions of very different durations.

For the eruptions analyzed, a ‘buffer’ distance tends to emerge, which is typically of a few kilometers, whereby rapid evacuation of a wider population grouping is possible over the time-scale of a few hours. It is notable however, in the earlier stages of eruption, this relationship is less clear and initial response at the most uncertain stage is most sensitive to the local context. This prevails for the longest normalized time in the case of Merapi (which is the shortest actual duration eruption). Nonetheless the emergence of a buffer distance enables communities at risk and managers of risk to cope with increases of activity typical of the ‘likely’ range of activity.

This strategy is highly dependent on the strength of the communication networks for disseminating warnings, and in some settings encourages the meshing of formal and informal warning networks. For example the ‘JalinMerapi’ network ( Lavigne et al., 2008 ; Wulandari et al., 2018 ) the ‘vigias’ of Tungurahua ( Stone et al., 2014 ; Mothes et al., 2015 ; Armijos et al., 2017 ), and the ‘Beidar’ in Sinabung ( Wulandari et al., 2018 ). The wisdom from these organic approaches to risk and scientific uncertainty (that have evolved empirically in response to long-lived systems) could be applied in other settings without this knowledge, and extended to anticipate effective responses to heightened activity, paroxysmal events or any deviations from the norm of experience.

Reversing the typical approach to design of warning and alert by beginning with the measured or modeled time-scale of impacts and social responses and tolerability of evacuation and then considering the contingent monitored signals could support this change in managing volcanic risk. In settings new to volcanic activity, this approach would help to quickly develop the shared understanding of risk and uncertainty between organizations and citizens that is vital to successful monitoring and management strategies ( Wisner et al., 2012 ; Barclay et al., 2015 ). This does not differ substantially from normative calls for ‘community-centered’ warning design and the involvement of all actors in the management of their own risk, but what this does suggest is concrete goals for this work and further evidence for its importance.

The main implication from our analysis is that those coping with volcanic risk should move away from frameworks that express zero tolerance for the loss of life as a central goal to ones that recognize the ‘minimization of risk.’ Such frameworks should place a focus on the best possible life outcomes in the face of volcanic activity, recognizing that risk to life is also minimized by ensuring positive outcomes for livelihoods, wellbeing and security.

Analysis of the last 30 years of outcomes and practice suggests that important targets are:

(a) Shared knowledge of the push and pull factors that impact on decision-making and their dynamics over the lifetime of an eruptive episode;

(b) Improved understanding of evacuation time-scales that are robust to likely and less likely variations of eruptive activity and their associated warning signals and uncertainties;

(c) Robust development of a ‘risk culture’ that includes scientific and community experience of creating the best possible life outcomes in the face of volcanic activity.

Data Availability

All datasets generated for this study are included in the manuscript and/or the Supplementary Files .

Ethics Statement

The interviews conducted as part of this study were approved by the Ethics Committee of the School of International Development, University of East Anglia. Interviews are fully anonymized consistent with the adopted procedure and all subjects gave written informed consent in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki. Our protocol for anonymization and minimization of distress was fully approved by the Ethics Committee and is also consistent with the United Kingdom Economic and Social Research Council’s Ethical Guidelines.

Author Contributions

JB, RF, MA, JP, and DP conceived and designed the study and wrote the manuscript in discussion with all other authors. JB compiled the fatalities data with SB and the evacuation data with RR, AH, and DP. JB compiled and analyzed the data on displacements and disruptions with DP. JP compiled the spatial data on displacements. RF and MA conducted and analyzed the qualitative interviews. JB led the writing of the manuscript with contributions from MA and RF and input from all other authors.

This research was funded primarily by the United Kingdom NERC and ESRC Strengthening Resilience in Volcanic Areas (STREVA) project (NE/J020001/1). The writing up and analysis were facilitated by a Royal Society-Leverhulme APEX Award (APX/R1/180094) to JB.

Conflict of Interest Statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Acknowledgments

Our colleagues in Ecuador and the Caribbean are warmly thanked for their stimulating conversations and discussions. Steve Sparks, Dave Petley, and Ben Van Vyk de Wries provided insightful commentary on the concepts and earlier drafts of this manuscript. We are grateful to the reviewers TW and PT for their thoughtful and helpful reviews of this manuscript that helped us clarify our thinking.

Supplementary Material

The Supplementary Material for this article can be found online at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2019.00205/full#supplementary-material

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Keywords : volcanic eruption, volcanic risk, livelihoods, evacuations, vulnerability

Citation: Barclay J, Few R, Armijos MT, Phillips JC, Pyle DM, Hicks A, Brown SK and Robertson REA (2019) Livelihoods, Wellbeing and the Risk to Life During Volcanic Eruptions. Front. Earth Sci. 7:205. doi: 10.3389/feart.2019.00205

Received: 27 March 2019; Accepted: 26 July 2019; Published: 14 August 2019.

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Copyright © 2019 Barclay, Few, Armijos, Phillips, Pyle, Hicks, Brown and Robertson. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) . The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

*Correspondence: Jenni Barclay, [email protected]

Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

Developing probabilistic eruption forecasts for dormant volcanoes: a case study from Mt Taranaki, New Zealand

• Research Article
• Published: 25 July 2007
• Volume 70 , pages 507–515, ( 2008 )

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• Michael B. Turner 1 ,
• Shane J. Cronin 1 ,
• Mark S. Bebbington 1 , 2 &
• Thomas Platz 1  

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The majority of continental arc volcanoes go through decades or centuries of inactivity, thus, communities become inured to their threat. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify hazard from sporadically active volcanoes and to develop probabilistic eruption forecasts. We compiled an eruption-event record for the last c. 9,500 years at Mt Taranaki, New Zealand through detailed radiocarbon dating of recent deposits and a sediment core from a nearby lake. This is the highest-precision record ever collected from the volcano, but it still probably underestimates the frequency of eruptions, which will only be better approximated by adding data from more sediment core sites in different tephra-dispersal directions. A mixture of Weibull distributions provided the best fit to the inter-event period data for the 123 events. Depending on which date is accepted for the last event, the mixture-of-Weibulls model probability is at least 0.37–0.48 for a new eruption from Mt Taranaki in the next 50 years. A polymodal distribution of inter-event periods indicates that a range of nested processes control eruption recurrence at this type of arc volcano. These could possibly be related by further statistical analysis to intrinsic factors such as step-wise processes of magma rise, assembly and storage.

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Acknowledgements

SJC and MB are supported by the NZ Foundation for Research Science and Technology contract MAUX401. MT and TP thank the Massey Doctoral Scholarship Committee and the George Mason Trust. We are grateful to Mr. and Mrs. Rumball for access to Lake Umutekai and Ms. S. Grant for laboratory assistance. We thank reviewers J. Eliasson, A. Belusov and editor J. White for their helpful and constructive comments.

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Turner, M.B., Cronin, S.J., Bebbington, M.S. et al. Developing probabilistic eruption forecasts for dormant volcanoes: a case study from Mt Taranaki, New Zealand. Bull Volcanol 70 , 507–515 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-007-0151-4

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Received : 14 August 2006

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Issue Date : February 2008

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-007-0151-4

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Strategies for overcoming farmers’ lives in volcano-prone areas: A case study in Mount Semeru, Indonesia

Mount Semeru is one of the most active volcanoes in Indonesia and the highest mountain in Java Island. Although the island is prone to volcanic eruptions, it is densely populated and also home to several farmers. The aim of this study is to analyze the strategies for overcoming farmers’ lives in Mount Semeru. This study involves 150 farmers who were randomly selected from terrains located at altitudes between 6 and 10 km in Mount Semeru. This study shows that farmers benefit significantly from the fertile lands resulting from volcanic eruptions. And they are highly motivated to engage in mitigation activities to reduce the impacts of eruption; therefore, they tend to participate in mitigation education or programs organized by government or private institutions. Support with the information and financial access regarding any mitigation strategies can help farmers a lot. Coordination among stakeholders to support mitigation strategies is necessary because all the parties are equally responsible for alleviating the impacts of volcanic eruptions. Any strategies for overcoming farmers’ lives in volcano areas also can be supported by community resilience.

1 Introduction

The agricultural sector plays an integral role in developing countries, including Indonesia. Some of its functions in such countries involve supporting local and national incomes, providing livelihood, and providing the raw materials for manufacturing industrial products [ 1 , 2 ]. In fact, these significant contributions are not commensurate with the rewards earned by farmers; consequently, several farmers are below the poverty line [ 3 ]. The agricultural sector is still faced with several challenges at individual, local, and national levels. These challenges include small land holding, lack of education, skyrocketing input prices, modernization, and regulation issues [ 4 ]. Thus, on the whole, farmers lead extremely difficult lives. Because relying on agriculture to support household needs seems to be an unwise option [ 5 ], many farmers often rely on secondary sources of income to fulfill their daily needs. Farmers often project their dreams on to their children, hoping for them to receive better job opportunities.

The difficulties that already existed are aggravated by the natural disasters that have recently occurred in Indonesia [ 6 ]. Java Island, Indonesia’s most densely populated island with a substantial farming population, is facing the same trend resulting from the occurrence of natural disaster [ 7 ]. Rozaki et al. [ 8 ] mentioned Java Island to be severely prone to natural disasters, including volcanoes, floods, earthquakes, and landslides. Each of these disasters has its own characteristics and affects the agricultural sector to varying degrees. Mount Merapi is categorized as the most active volcano in Java Island [ 9 ]. However, there are other active volcanoes – including Mount Semeru – that also threaten human life [ 10 ]. Mount Semeru poses risks and hazards for the inhabitants – including farmers – residing in the surrounding areas [ 11 , 12 ]. As evident in Figure 1 , volcanic eruptions have occurred in almost each of the years from 2000 to 2020. Situated in the East Java Province, Mount Semeru is the highest mountain in this island. Throughout history, the mountain has witnessed several volcanic eruptions from the earliest one dating back to 1818, although the frequency of eruptions increased from 1967 [ 13 ].

Year eruption occurrence of Mount Semeru [ 14 ].

Despite the frequent volcanic eruptions and significant hazards associated with the same (particularly for inhabitants at higher altitudes), this mountainous region continues to be densely populated. This is because the volcano is the inhabitants’ homeland and native place; moreover, the hazards of occupying this region are accompanied by benefits in the form of a fertile land [ 15 ]. Regions situated in volcanoes are typically rural areas, with farming being the most prevalent source of livelihood for most inhabitants. Other common primary occupations in these regions include livestock, sand mining, and tourism activities, because these terrains are frequented by mountain climbers [ 16 , 17 ]. Potatoes and vegetables are commonly cultivated in this volcanic region [ 18 ]. Each of these economic activities significantly contributes to the development of Mount Semeru [ 19 ].

Because of the prevalence of several volcanic mountains in Indonesia, Volcano disaster mitigation is one of the priorities in this country. Consequently, the participation of its inhabitants, including farmers, is crucial to make the efforts a success [ 20 ]. Farmers are an important party in agriculture; therefore, farmers’ lives should be considered in developing or protecting agriculture, especially in volcano-prone area. The first step toward mitigation awareness is to gauge the general perceptions about the risks and hazards associated with volcanic eruptions; with an understanding of these perceptions, suitable regulations can be made to ensure a better future [ 21 ]. To date, there are very few studies about farmers’ lives in volcano disaster area; the literature study shows that more research was conducted about farmers’ lives in other disaster-prone areas such as forest fire areas [ 4 ]. Understanding the strategies to overcome farmers’ lives in volcano-prone areas is important and can contribute to suitable policy and actions regarding the efforts to support farmers’ lives in vulnerable areas such as Mount Semeru. Therefore, this study aims to analyze farmers’ lives in Mount Semeru, East Java, Indonesia and studies their coping strategies in the face of volcano disasters. The structure of this article is introduction, research method, results and discussion, and conclusion.

2 Literature review

Indonesia is a country that has many active volcanoes; it makes this country become more vulnerable because of various disasters not only volcano disaster [ 22 ]. Mitigation strategies reduce the impacts of disasters on human lives. In addition to the hazards that occur suddenly, volcano also provides benefits for those who live in surrounding area, including farmers [ 17 ]. In disaster-prone area, mitigation efforts are important. The participation of involved parties is also important [ 20 ].

The common behavior among people living in volcano-prone area is staying there due to the heritage and the benefits from the volcano soil (i.e., agriculture). It is a complex relation between human, volcano mountain, and environment, which gives people not only economic, but also spiritual and sociocultural benefits [ 23 ]. The blessing that farmers get from volcano is fertile land that can give economic benefits through successful agriculture [ 17 ].

Mount Semeru is the highest mountain in Java Island and categorized as active volcano, and it is located in East Java [ 11 ]. This volcano also often erupts with various scales starting from 1818 and became more intense from 1967 [ 13 ]. Hot ash is common type of hazard from volcanic eruption in Mount Semeru [ 12 ].

People who live in the surrounding of volcano-prone area are vary, but commonly work as farmers because the land is suitable for agriculture. The same is true for people who live in the surrounding of Mount Semeru, where they are working in agriculture, tourism, and other related economic activities. Each economic sector plays an important role for the development of this volcano [ 19 ]. Agriculture practice in Mount Semeru is dominated by potato and vegetable cultivation [ 18 ]. Farmers’ lives in volcano-prone area are unique because of their will to still stay and do farming activities, even though the hazards are close to them. People in the area are trying to face and adapt to the hazards of volcano disaster [ 24 ].

Farmers who live in volcano-prone areas become more vulnerable, because without living in disaster prone-area they are already vulnerable because of the fluctuations in agricultural product, input price, human resources, and environment [ 25 ]. Therefore, farmers in volcano-prone area do have high willingness to survive and overcome any challenges and threat that they face. The strategies to overcome the farmers’ lives in volcano-prone areas are important for supporting their lives and future generation [ 26 ]. Considering the implementation of circular economy for agriculture practice in volcano-prone areas may increase the agriculture sustainability and employment opportunity [ 27 ].

3 Research method

3.1 study area.

This study was conducted in Mount Semeru, an active volcano region in East Java. Many farmers inhabiting this region face risks and hazards resulting from this volcano, warranting an analysis of farmers’ lives in such terrains. This study, conducted in areas located at a distance of 6–10 km from the center of the volcano, covers: (i) Supiturang Village, Pronojiwo Subdistrict, Lumajang Regency; and (ii) Oro-oro Village, Batu Subdistrict, Batu City.

3.2 Sampling procedure and data collection

This study comprised a total of 150 farmers, i.e., 75 farmers each from Supiturang Village and Oro-oro Village, respectively. Those farmers were chosen randomly, and the data were collected using a semi-structured interview with a designated questionnaire developed through observation and a literature review. The interview used a data collection technique that can cover a broad range of topics [ 28 ]. This study used four main variables, each consisting of sub-variables and indicators ( Tables 1 – 4 ). Each indicator was measured using specific questions contained in a questionnaire. Observations were also drawn to supplement the findings obtained from semi-structured interviews [ 6 ]. The research methodology flowchart is shown in Figure 2 . Three main parameters for assessing farmers’ lives and coping strategies are as follows: first, volcanic hazard variable that shows the impact of volcano on farmers’ lives [ 20 ]. Second, mitigation that shows the level of mitigation condition in farmers’ lives [ 21 ]. And third, external variable that shows some aspects external to farmers that may affect the farmers’ lives in volcano-prone area [ 20 ]. Those variables can contribute to analyze the farmers’ vulnerability, although they are already vulnerable because of poverty [ 3 ]. The findings of this study can show how farmers prepare, deal and adapt toward the volcano hazard and risk impacts [ 8 ].

Demographics of respondent variables

Volcanic hazard variable

Mitigation variable

External variable

Research flowchart.

Informed consent: Informed consent has been obtained from all individuals included in this study.

3.3 Analytical technique

A descriptive method is used to present and elaborate on the findings. Mean, frequency, and percentage were calculated to determine the trends in and differences between variables and indicators. A multiple logistic regression analysis has been used to analyze the relation between independent variables (demographics of respondents) and dependent variables (volcanic hazards, mitigation, and external variables).

4.1 Demographics of respondents

The demographics of respondents are important variables in every research as they reveal their basic conditions [ 29 ]. In general, respondents’ (in this context, the farmers) demographics influence their decision-making and necessary reforms with regard to their lives and faming activities [ 30 ]. These demographics also act as baselines indicating farmers’ conducts on their agriculture practices.

The issue of gender is inextricably linked to agriculture as the degree of imbalance in agricultural workload between the genders is significantly influenced by the area being considered [ 31 ]. In the modern world, males and females have equal rights in some occupations, but for physical occupation such as agriculture, the equality is not explained as equal in workload, but more in giving female opportunity to work. And as a result of their physical prowess, men are typically employed in larger numbers in occupations requiring manual labor [ 32 ]. In this study, the male and female respondents are 56% and 44%, respectively ( Table 5 ). Farmers in this study stated that occupations such as planting, watering, and harvesting, which require considerable physical labor, are dominated by men. On the other hand, occupations relating to management and sale of products typically involve more women than men [ 33 ]. Although not formally documented, this gendered division of labor has become the norm in the agriculture activities practiced at Mount Semeru.

Demographics of respondents

As a result of the manual labor involved in agriculture, farmers’ performance is affected by age [ 34 ]. The younger the farmers, the more is their strength; thus, they can contribute more in the physical activities involved in agriculture. The agricultural sector consists of aging farmers, not only in Indonesia but also worldwide. This trend relegates agriculture to a more vulnerable position, particularly in the future [ 4 ]. The average age of respondents in this study is 47.17 years; although this age is still classified within the productive age group, it is close to the age of 50, which implies that their productive years are limited. Also, most respondents (43.33%) fall into the age range of 41–53 years. The age range with the least number of respondents (i.e., with 4.67%) is 15–27 years. Additionally, farmers spend most of their lives in Mount Semeru: this is demonstrated by the length of stay that averages 43.5 years. Moreover, the majority, i.e., 70%, of respondents have already lived in this volcano for more than 40 years.

Education is another internal factor that affects farmer’s decision-making [ 28 ]. Evidently, the lesser the education, the lower are the levels of awareness and acceptance of change or innovation in their lives. In developing countries like Indonesia, farmers typically have lesser education levels [ 35 ]. With 63.34% of the respondents having only completed elementary school education, this study unearths that a majority of farmers are poorly educated. Although 3.33% farmers can reach diploma/university, the majority have a low level of education. This can lead to a lack of acceptance of change or innovations [ 36 ].

The primary demographical issue in Indonesia is the prevalence of large families [ 37 ]. The popular belief here is that the more the number of children, the more are the prosperity and sustenance levels. Therefore, many people have more than two children. To control this population explosion, the government initiated a family planning program that encourages people to have only two children [ 38 ]. In this study, a majority of the respondents have four or more family members; this is further demonstrated by the mean, which is more than four. Consequently, farmers typically have more mouths to feed [ 39 ].

The primary issue with regard to agricultural development in Indonesia is that a majority of farmers are small landholders [ 40 ]. Efforts to increase the production through intensification and modernization are limited as a result of the small-sized farm lands they own [ 41 ]. In this study, the average farm size is less than half a hectare, which is 4897.67 m 2 . Moreover, a majority of the farms are in the size range of 2,000–2,999 m 2 . The farm lands in mountainous areas are typically sloping, making it difficult for one to optimize the land, unlike in a regular farmland. Based on the interview, respondents stated that most of their farms were inherited from their parents; they are less likely to purchase new land as land prices are high [ 42 ].

As they gain more experience through the years, farmers tend to hone their agricultural skills [ 43 ]. As the average age of respondents in this study is more than 40 years, the study hypothesized that most of them are likely to have had a farming experience of more than 20 years. This assumption was proved by the finding that the average farming experience is 21.74 years. Furthermore, a majority of the farmers have experience of more than 20 years. In general, the farming experience is commensurate with the farmers’ ability to engage in agricultural activities. Additionally, such tremendous experience sometimes leads to increased acceptance of new innovation; however, conversely, highly experienced farmers also tend to become rigid with regard to their farming practices [ 44 ].

4.2 Volcanic hazard variables

4.2.1 hazard type and frequency.

Volcanic eruption has emerged as one of the most serious disasters affecting farmers’ lives [ 45 ], phenomena such as hot ash, bomb, lava, and landslide that commonly accompany the eruption [ 9 ]. A majority (51.33%) of respondents perceive hot ash as the primary hazard accompanying volcanic eruptions; 40 and 8.67% of respondents have cited the primary hazards as lava and bomb, respectively ( Figure 3 ). Although eruption also typically triggers landslide [ 46 ], none of the respondents in this study experienced landslide as a hazard accompanying eruption.

Hazard types in percent.

4.2.2 Risk and hazard degree

The degree of disaster depends on its type [ 7 ]. The degree to which an eruption affects agriculture or human life varies depending on the type of hazard – such as hot ash, bomb, lava, or landslide – that accompanies it [ 47 ]. Farmers believe that the most predominant hazard is hot ash as it can destroy crops in a second when it flies and sweeps across the agricultural land [ 45 ]. Respondents stated that the degree of eruption disaster is at a high level (82.67%), followed by very big with 17.33% ( Figure 4 ). This finding reveals that respondents understand and realize that the hazard that they face is real and hazardous.

Hazard degree in percent.

4.2.3 Eruption impact

The impact of eruption is studied based on three categories: agriculture, nonagriculture, and human life [ 47 ]. Although none of the respondents have lost their entire land or all of their crops because of the eruption, 29.33 and 70.67% have experienced severe damage and minor damage, respectively, to land and crops ( Figure 5 ). Some of their practices – such as using an agroforestry system – to protect their crops before the eruption can reduce its impact [ 48 ]. Also, commonly, when the respondents are asked to evacuate, they always head to the refugee shelter for the nights but return to their homes during the day to protect their livestock, properties, and crops; this finding is similar to that of Muir et al. [ 9 ], where people tend to protect their property even in the face of hazards. Mixed farming is practiced in the study area where farmers are planting crops and trees and some are having livestock too.

Eruption impact on agriculture in percentage.

In this study, respondents did not report a significant impact of volcanic eruptions on nonagriculture, including properties such as houses and vehicles. All respondents reported only a minor damage to their properties as a result of eruptions ( Figure 6 ). The impact of volcanic eruptions on human life (family members) also reveals the same trend; all respondents reported only minor injuries to their family members during the eruption ( Figure 7 ). These two trends might result from the preparedness of respondents for the eruption, typically in the form of mitigation strategies. Suharini and Kurniawan [ 49 ] found that such disaster preparedness helps reduce its impact.

Eruption impact on nonagriculture in percentage.

Eruption impact on human life/family members in percentage.

4.2.4 Volcano benefits

Farmers voluntarily inhabit the areas surrounding Mount Semeru, despite the mountain being an active volcano [ 50 ]. Studies on people who live in volcano areas demonstrate that the ramifications of occupying these regions are also accompanied by benefits or blessings [ 16 ]. The present study corresponds to such findings; a majority (78%) of the respondents agreed that there were several benefits of living around Mount Semeru ( Figure 8 ). The primary benefit of the same in terms of agriculture is the fertile land; the volcanic ash falling on the land during the eruption can increase the fertility of the land, even if the land fertility needs process not directly when the eruption occurs [ 47 ].

Benefits of the volcano in percentage.

4.3 Mitigation variables

4.3.1 risk and response knowledge.

In general, the Indonesian Government, through its National Disaster Management Authority (in Indonesian language, it is abbreviated to BNPB), has classified eruption disasters into four levels: Normal (Normal, Level 1), Waspada (Alert, Level 2), Siaga (Standby, Level 3), and Awas (Beware, Level 4) [ 51 ]. The higher the level of the disaster, the more are the hazards likely to affect the area. Eighty-eight percent of respondents were aware of this classification ( Figure 9 ). This sign is developed to provide an early warning system for all people who are related to the volcano area. Understanding this early warning sign can help people reduce the impact of the eruption. Generally, people will be ordered to evacuate when the situation comes to Siaga . Cooperation from all parties is required to reduce the negative impact of the eruption [ 31 ].

Understanding the hazard level in percentage.

In the face of such hazards, especially when preceded by the early warning system, a majority (98.65%) of the respondents evacuate the site without taking along their belongings ( Figure 10 ). People cannot move faster if they have many belongings; hence, they typically prioritize their family members and important documents [ 52 ]. Respondents also typically monitor their properties and farming when possible during the day and return to their refugee shelters at night.

Response when hazards come in percentage.

4.3.2 Mitigation motivation/interest

Farmers in Mount Semeru realize the importance of mitigation efforts to reduce the impact of eruption [ 53 ]. The simple mitigation practices followed by farmers involve understanding the hazard signs and preparing for evacuation if required [ 21 ]. Commonly, the mitigation is conducted during the pre-disaster period to prepare for and reduce the impacts of disaster [ 45 ]. The participation and motivation of people in the surrounding areas of this volcano play important roles in the success of the mitigation. Without adequate motivation, individuals are typically not inclined to participate in mitigation strategies. Such negligence would affect their lives in the long run [ 54 ]. A total of 69.33% of the respondents are highly motivated to participate in all mitigation strategies; moreover, 25.33 of the respondents exhibit very high motivation ( Figure 11 ). Although 5.33% display low motivation, the mitigation strategies must be continued to support the efforts to reduce the impact of the volcano disaster. More than 90% of the respondents are motivated (high and very high motivation levels) to participate in mitigation strategies; therefore, any mitigation effort is likely to be adapted by farmers in this volcano. Research by Siegrist and Gutscher [ 55 ] demonstrated that mitigation motivation is important to propel the efforts to prepare for and face the disasters.

Mitigation motivation in percentage.

4.4 Mitigation education

For the mitigation strategies to succeed, mitigation education and awareness must increase. Such education and awareness would increase motivation to create mitigation strategies and cause a reduction in disaster impact [ 56 ]. More than half of the respondents stated that mitigation education is available in their area; however, 43.33% of the respondents stated the contrary ( Figure 12 ). Such availability means that mitigation education is provided in their area through various methods such as training, extension, social media, and posters. The education may include lessons on the essential hazard signs, preparedness for an imminent disaster, community resilience, evacuation route and transport, and agriculture system practices such as agroforestry that can protect the crops and prevent landslide, etc. [ 57 ].

Mitigation education availability in percentage.

Respondents who have stated that there is no mitigation education in their area might either hail from areas with limited mitigation education or may not be active in their communities and hence unaware of such educational practices because mitigation education is typically delivered in a community. Such individuals may learn about mitigation strategies by themselves or through neighbors or other public information sources.

Ninety-two percentage and eight percentage of respondents claimed that their mitigation education is provided by the government and the private sector, respectively ( Figure 13 ). The government provides mitigation education through schemes such as BNPB, local government, extension, and school education [ 7 ]. Private organization or non government organization are also providing mitigation education; many parties have realized that alleviating disasters’ impacts is an equal responsibility of all parties and a joint effort to prevent destruction caused by disasters striking in Indonesia in general as well as the Mount Semeru area in particular [ 58 ].

Mitigation education provider in percentage.

It is hoped that the impact of eruption can be reduced through various kinds of mitigation education [ 8 ]. The benefits of mitigation education may be classified as pre-, during, and post-disaster benefits and may vary for each individual. As delineated in Figure 14 , 54% of the respondents agree that pre-eruption disaster mitigation education has benefits such as ensuring greater preparedness regarding eruption hazards. However, the percentages of individuals disagreeing and strongly disagreeing with this notion are 24.67 and 10.67%, respectively. Over 70% respondents agree that mitigation education has its benefits during the disaster. Some of these benefits include increased understanding among people about ways to evacuate the area and help one another. For example, some individuals may let their mini-trucks be used for evacuation. Over 90% respondents agree and strongly agree that mitigation education is beneficial post the disaster. These post-eruption benefits include better handling of the affected properties through the processes of rebuilding, cleaning, etc. Such benefits that respondents receive through these three stages of mitigation education may propel increased awareness among stakeholders to provide adequate education and among people to participate in such activities. Pawitan and Haryani [ 59 ] stated that the availability and accessibility of mitigation education can benefit all parties.

Benefits of mitigation education in percentage.

4.5 External variables

4.5.1 government support.

The government, through BNPB and other related institutions, plays a crucial role in disaster management in Indonesia. As an entity with the power to create and implement regulation, the government can considerably help with the pre-, during, and post-eruption strategies in the Mount Semeru region. In terms of the pre-eruption mitigation strategies, the government executes the provision of a build bunker, an evacuation road, a monitoring station, and mitigation education for people [ 17 ]. The percentages of respondents who agree and strongly agree that government support during pre-eruption has its benefits are 70.67 and 25.53%, respectively ( Figure 15 ).

Benefits of Government support in percentage.

During the eruption, the government provides support in the form of evacuation, shelter, and logistics. A majority of respondents (70 and 28%, respectively) agree and strongly agree that this period is critical because the eruption can become more intense at any time; therefore, quick decision-making is required. In terms of post-eruption, government support primarily involves efforts to rebuild the destroyed public properties, as well as trauma healing, relocation, and livelihood support. With such support, livelihood can steadily recover from any shock, including eruption disaster [ 60 ]. The percentages of respondents agreeing and strongly agreeing that government support during post-eruption has its benefits are 85.33 and 12.67%, respectively.

4.5.2 Financial access

Farmers’ financial condition is an important determinant of the quality of their farming activities, as farmers incur expenses through these activities [ 61 ]. The financial conditions of a majority of smallholder farmers are dire; typically, they do not have enough reserve to begin their next planting season as their money is spent on daily expenses. It is common in Indonesia for farmers to borrow capital from financial institutions such as bank; such financial access helps farmers continue their farming [ 62 ], especially in regions like Mount Semeru, where the challenge of agriculture is greater than that of regular agriculture, and crops are often destroyed by eruptions. Sixty percent respondents agree and 28.67% strongly agree that financial support from credit/financial institutions can help them obtain capital for farming. Although Mount Semeru is quite a remote area, there are sufficient credit institutions available to help farmers access capital. A total of 74.67% respondents agreed that obtaining capital was not a difficult feat ( Figure 16 ).

Financial access in percentage.

4.5.3 Environmental and infrastructural support

Environmental factors entail topography, soil fertility, and other natural conditions in the study area [ 23 ]. A majority of farmers agree (74.67%) and strongly agree (18.67%) that the favorable environmental conditions support their efforts to sustain as well as prepare for and reduce the disasters’ impacts. Infrastructure is also crucial for supporting the farmers’ lives and reducing the impacts of disaster and eruption, as this study demonstrates. The evacuation road, bunker, shelter, and monitoring station are some forms of infrastructure support found in Mount Semeru [ 11 ]. The percentages of respondents who agree and strongly agree that such infrastructural support is useful are 75.67 and 14.67%, respectively ( Figure 17 ). However, an improvement in infrastructure pertaining to farmers’ livelihood and efforts for reducing the impacts of eruption is required [ 63 ].

Environment and infrastructure support in percentage.

4.5.4 Social access/community resilience

In general, people are more likely to interact with one another because they cannot live in this world alone. The same applies to farmers in Mount Semeru; many of them interact with one another to seek help and acquire information that is useful for their lives and farming. They form a community that stands together to preserve their beliefs and develop together [ 64 ]. In terms of disaster, the community plays an important role in mitigating disasters. People can access valuable information or training more easily through their communities than alone. Javanese people are known for their strong sense of community; this study reveals that more than 80% of the farmers agree and 16% strongly agree that they can easily interact or have social interaction with other farmers or communities ( Figure 18 ). This indicates that well-developed social behavior develops their preparedness for disasters, farmers can receive timely help and useful information shared in the community [ 65 ]. Farmers also state that all inhabitants, including farmers, in Mount Semeru are united; therefore, in case of any eruption or other daily occurrences, they tend to help each other. This strong bond is crucial in disaster mitigation efforts [ 66 ]. Meanwhile, the farmers outside of the area, their community tend to focus on finding the economic support the disaster mitigation [ 8 ]. Regarding the ethnographic and specific practice of perception and belief by community, even only practiced by some people, there is Offering Ritual (mainly agricultural products) such as in Suro month (Javanese Calendar) as the gratitude expression for nature.

Community access in percentage.

4.5.5 Information access

Nowadays, information is crucial for all human life, including farmers [ 67 ]. Everybody accesses information for fulfilling their needs. Information in terms of disaster is important for delivering the news, education materials regarding mitigation, early warning system, regulation, and other related assistance [ 68 ]. A majority (74.67%) of the respondents agree that they can easily access information regarding volcano disasters ( Figure 19 ). Conversely, the farmers living in outside of area prefer searching information regarding the agriculture practice that can help their economic situation to information about disaster mitigation strategies [ 4 ].

Easy-to-access information.

Ninety-eight percent of the respondents commonly access information through their community or neighbors ( Figure 20 ). This sense of community is strong in Indonesia, especially in rural areas. Any information received by the community from the government and pertaining to eruption is shared with community members or the neighborhood shortly. Such information sharing is associated with community resilience during a disaster. In other words, strong communities typically engage in massive information sharing, which can then increase the preparedness of its members during disasters. Zaki et al. [ 24 ] and Oktari et al. [ 69 ] demonstrated that community resilience had to be increased so that the mitigation efforts can become more successful.

Information source.

4.5.6 Factors affecting the farmers’ lives and coping strategies

There are three variables that have no goodness of fit for the multiple logistic regression model because the Pearson point is below 0.5: they are risk and hazard degree, financial support, and social access ( Table 6 ). Risk and hazard degree is beyond farmers’ control because it cannot be predicted [ 70 ]. Financial access is an important factor that supports farming development; even though the regression model has no goodness of fit, financial access still becomes the important part for farmers’ lives. Commonly, the challenge is how farmers prove their eligibility for credit to the credit institution, perhaps through preparing the collateral [ 71 ]. Social access also shows no goodness of fit; this might be caused by the fact that farmers are the majority in old age, and young farmers are few. However, social access is still becoming an important part in mitigation efforts, because through social interactions, community resilience on disaster can be increased and strengthened [ 72 ].

Factors affecting farmers’ lives and coping strategies

Volcano benefit is significant with farming experience and family member. The farming experience led farmers to understand more about the benefit of volcano; common benefit that is felt by farmers is the fertile land that they get from the volcano ash. Mitigation motivation is significant with the family member at 0.01 level with significant point 0.007. The family member drives farmers to have more effort for reducing the eruption impacts to protect their farms and family; therefore, it is significant. Meanwhile, for mitigation education, only significant was relationship found with farming experience at 0.01 level with significant point 0.002. Farmers with higher farming experience tend to use more opportunities for mitigation education from various sources such as government or private institution, or from the local communities. But there is a challenge, which is the skeptical regarding the effectivity of mitigation education. Also, some farmers might think that education should be in the form of formal condition; however, in the field, mitigation education can be in many forms such as posters, social media, message broadcast, community discussion, and extension [ 59 , 73 , 74 ].

Government support, as explained earlier, is believed to have benefits on farmers’ lives and the mitigation strategies toward the eruption. But, as shown in Table 6 , this variable has no significant correlation with the independent variable. But still in any regulation from the government, especially with regard to the mitigation efforts, the farmers characteristics need to be considered.

Environment and infrastructure support are shown to be affected by age and farming experience. Farmers’ characteristics affect how they accept and wisely use the environment toward their life and mitigation efforts. In addition, the characteristics also affect farmers’ feel and perception on the infrastructure that has been built for their life and mitigation efforts. Social access shows no significant relation with dependent variables; it might be affected by the social interaction among farmers are conducted in routine activities, therefore they are considering the social access is not difficult thing.

5 Discussion

Volcanic hazards are real and can harm people, including farmers and those who live near volcanoes. This study proves that various volcanic hazards affect the agricultural conditions of the local farmers, in negative (e.g., destroying the crops) and positive ways (e.g., soil becomes fertile by the effect of the ash). Other studies also confirm these findings [ 47 ]. The farmers decision to still stay and farm in volcano area may be found reasonable, as it is based not solely on the ancestors’ heritage, but also on the economic and agricultural benefits they receive from the volcano-prone area.

Disaster mitigation strategies are efforts to reduce the impact of disasters. Each disaster has different characteristics; therefore, the mitigation strategies vary depending on the disaster type [ 49 ]. Even though there is eruption monitoring station, volcano disaster occurs suddenly that people need to have good reaction to reduce the impacts. Mitigation education is a good method to improve the farmers’ disaster preparedness, even though some farmers stated that there is no mitigation education but they expect to get it because they believe the education can help them to increase their preparedness [ 69 ]. Farmers are educated to react with correct reaction such as to evacuate in certain level. The eruption disaster level is categorized into four: Normal (Normal, Level 1), Waspada (Alert, Level 2), Siaga (Standby, Level 3), and Awas (Beware, Level 4) [ 51 ]. Maximum in Siaga , farmers must evacuate with or without belongings, but in emergency condition, they must focus on their lives rather than properties. Government and other stakeholders are needed to collaborate in providing good mitigation education. And the education should cover pre, during, and post-disaster [ 8 ]. But to ensure that any mitigation education can run effectively, farmers need to have motivation to do mitigation strategies, because they are the main actors in the efforts [ 55 ].

Motivation can help farmers to do work that can be beneficial for them and the community in facing volcano disaster hazards. Government is the main stakeholder that can help and support farmers in various ways, such as policy, infrastructure, and education. So, the role of government should be strengthened [ 52 ]. Farmers in volcano-prone area are similar to other farmers who need help for their farming; therefore, such as financial access for supporting their farming might give big support for farmers. The financial access is limited not only for farming but also for any effort for mitigation strategies.

Social access becomes an important part of farmers’ efforts to face volcano disasters. This study proves that an united community helps farmers to face and adapt to the disasters and also for their farming activities. Community resilience can support farmers through the united community and fast information regarding any disaster movement. Even though there are advanced technologies for distributing information, community still becomes the fastest method for farmers to get information [ 56 ]. The community resilience exists due to the social awareness of mutual help in case of a volcano-related disaster. Farmers face and adapt to the volcano disasters because they still want to live there disregarding the circumstances. Even though the volcano mountain may have different characteristics, the findings from this study still can be used to help farmers in facing and adapting to the volcano disasters.

6 Conclusion

Despite the hazards and threatening risks of eruption, many farmers continue to live in Mount Semeru and practice farming to fulfill their basic needs. Hot ash and lava are common types of eruption hazards, and the frequency of eruption is high; however, its size is typically not large and the hazards are not felt very often by farmers. The benefit of volcano activity, i.e., soil fertility, is enjoyed by farmers in Mount Semeru. High mitigation motivation causes farmers to participate in mitigation strategies such as understanding the early warning system, increasing the community resilience, and participating in any government programs for reducing eruption impacts. Government contribution to provide mitigation education and infrastructure such as an evacuation road and a refugee shelter is benefiting for farmers’ lives in Mount Semeru volcano-prone area: these become their opportunity. Farming experience has proven significant effect on the volcano benefit, mitigation education, and environment and infrastructure support. Along with the increase in farming experience, the farmers tend of good perception of mitigation education, which in turn improves their mitigation skills. Compared to the farmers outside of volcano area, farmers in volcano area have more preparedness regarding any disaster that comes without notice. They also have more sense of respecting nature because of the frequent experience of natural disaster: it becomes their strength. Farmers in volcano-prone area should optimize their strength and opportunity to increase the quality of their lives, even though in natural disaster-prone area. In addition, stakeholder coordination to support the mitigation strategies is required, and farmers should also shoulder the responsibility to participate in any programs related to eruption risk reduction.

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to express their heartfelt gratitude to Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta for supporting this research through an internal funding scheme. They would also like to thank Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang for allowing this research collaboration to take place.

Funding information: This study was conducted with the support of internal research grant of Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta, Indonesia.

Author contributions: Z.R.: conceptualization, methodology, data analysis, paper writing; N.R.: conceptualization; R.R.: data collection; O.W.: conceptualization; L.R.: conceptualization; T.: conceptualization; S.N.A.: paper drafting; A.R.: paper drafting; and J.: paper drafting.

Conflict of interest: The authors state no conflict of interest.

Data availability statement: The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies.

Soufrière Hills Volcano , Montserrat, West Indies. Synopsis of events by former Montserrat resident, photographer and Author Lally Brown. 

Where is Montserrat? Montserrat is a small tropical island of approximately 40 sq. miles in the Caribbean, fifteen minutes flying time from Antigua. It is a British Overseas Territory and relies on UK Government aid money to survive. It is of volcanic origin with the Soufrière Hills above the capital of Plymouth the highest point of the island.

How and when did the volcano erupt? Prior to 1995 the volcano in the Soufrière Hills had been dormant for 350 years but on the morning of 18th July 1995 steam and fine ash could be seen coming from the flanks of the Soufrière Hills accompanied by a roaring sound, described as being like a jet engine. In the capital of Plymouth there was a strong smell of ‘bad eggs’ the hydrogen sulphide being emitted by the awakening volcano.

Montserrat was totally unprepared. No-one had ever imagined the dormant volcano would erupt. The Soufrière Hills was the breadbasket of the island where farmers worked the fertile agricultural land, while the busy capital and island port of Plymouth nestled at the foot of the hills.

Scientists arrived from the University of the West Indies to assess the situation. They said the volcano was producing ‘acoustic energy explosions’ at approximately half-hour intervals sending ash and vapour three to four hundred metres into the air.

What happened next? Before July 1995 Montserrat was a thriving tourist destination with a population of 10,000 people but over several weeks there was a mass exodus from the island and a run on the banks with people withdrawing cash.

Several areas near the vent that had opened up in the hillside were declared exclusion zones and residents were evacuated to the safe north of the island into schools and churches.

It was evident the volcano was becoming more active when a series of small earthquakes shook the island. Heavy rain from passing hurricanes brought mudflows down the hillsides into Plymouth. Sulphide dioxide emissions increased, a sure sign of heightened activity.

The scientists hoped to be able to give a six hour warning of any eruptive activity but when they discovered the magma was less than 1 km below the dome they said this could not be guaranteed, saying there was a 50% chance of an imminent eruption. An emergency order was signed by the Governor and new exclusion zones were drawn with people evacuated north.

The years 1995 to 1997 The Soufrière Hills volcano became increasingly active and more dangerous.

Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO) was established to monitor activity and advise the Government.

December 1995 saw the first pyroclastic flow from the volcano.

The capital of Plymouth was evacuated for the last time in April 1996.

Acid rain damaged plants.

Two-thirds of Montserrat became the new exclusion zone , including the fertile agricultural land.

Population dropped to 4,000 with residents leaving for UK or other Caribbean islands.

Frequent heavy ashfalls covered the island with blankets of thick ash.

On the seismic drums at the MVO swarms of small hybrid earthquakes frequently registered. Also volcano-tectonic earthquakes (indicating fracture or slippage of rock) and ‘Broadband’ tremors (indicating movement of magma).

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MVO Seismograph printout Dec 1997

‘Spines’ grew rapidly out of the lava dome to heights of up to 15 metres before collapsing back.

Rainfall caused dangerous mudflows down the flanks of the Soufrière Hills.

Temporary accommodation was built to house evacuees living in churches and schools.

25th June 1997 Black Wednesday For a period of twenty minutes at 12.59 pm the volcano erupted without warning with devastating consequences. A massive pyroclastic flow swept across the landscape and boulders up to 4 metres in diameter were thrown out of the volcano. Over 4 sq.km was destroyed including nine villages and two churches. The top 300ft had been blown off the lava dome. Tragically nineteen people were caught in the pyroclastic flow and died.

Post Office and War Memorial 1997

Lateral blast December 1997 Midnight on Christmas Day 1997 the MVO reported that hybrid earthquakes had merged into a near-continuous signal clipping the sides of the seismic drum. At 3am on Boxing Day there was a massive collapse of the dome. Approximately 55 million cubic metres of dome material shot down the flanks of the volcano into the sea. Travelling at speeds of 250-300 km per hour it took less than a minute to slice a 7 km wide arc of devastation across southern Montserrat. The evacuated villages of Patrick’s and O’Garros were blasted out of existence. A delta 2 km wide spilled into the sea causing a small tsunami .

Police checkpoint Montserrat

March 1999 After a year of apparent inactivity at the volcano the Scientists declared the risk to populated areas had fallen to levels of other Caribbean islands with dormant volcanoes. Arrangements were made to encourage overseas residents to return. Plans were put in place to reopen the abandoned airport.

2000 to 2003 One year after the volcano had been declared dormant there was a massive collapse of the dome, blamed on heavy rainfall.

In July 2001 another massive collapse of the dome described as ‘a significant eruption’ caused airports on neighbouring Caribbean islands to close temporarily due to the heavy ashfall they experienced. A Maritime Exclusion Zone was introduced around Montserrat and access to Plymouth and the airport prohibited.

Soufrière Hills volcano was now described as a ‘persistently active volcano’ that could continue for 10, 20 or 30 years. (ie possibly to 2032).

In July 2003 ‘the worst eruption to date’ took place, starting at 8 pm 12th July and continuing without pause until 4 am morning of 13th July. Over 100 metres in height disappeared from the mountain overnight. It was the largest historical dome collapse since activity began in July 1995.

A period of relative quiet followed.

2006 The second largest dome collapse took place with an ash cloud reaching a record 55,000 metres into the air. Mudflows down the flanks of the Soufrière Hills was extensive and tsunamis were reported on the islands of Guadeloupe and Antigua.

Another period of relative quiet followed.

Soufriere Hills volcano 2007

2010 Another partial dome collapse with pyroclastic flows reaching 400 metres into the sea and burying the old abandoned airport. There was extensive ashfall on neighbouring islands.

Again followed by a period of relative quiet.

2018 Although the Soufrière Hills volcano is described as ‘active’ it is currently relatively quiet. It is closely monitored by a team at the Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO). They advise the Government and residents on the state of the volcano.

Negative effects of the volcano:

·       Approximately two-thirds of Montserrat now inaccessible (exclusion zone);

·       Capital of Plymouth including hospital, government buildings, businesses, schools etc. buried under ash;

·       Fertile farming land in the south in exclusion zone and buried under ash;

·       Population reduced from 10,000 to 4,000;

·       Businesses left Montserrat;

·       Tourism badly affected;

·       Concern over long term health problems due to ash;

·       Volcano Stress Syndrome diagnosed;

·       Huge financial cost to British Tax Payer (£400 million in aid);

·       Loss of houses, often not insured;

·       Relocation to the north of Montserrat by residents from the south.

Positive effects:

·       Tourists visiting Montserrat to see the volcano, MVO and Plymouth, now described as ‘Caribbean Pompeii’;

·       Geothermal energy being investigated;

·       Sand mining for export;

·       Plans for a new town and port in north;

·       New housing for displaced residents built;

·       New airport built (but can only accommodate small planes);

·       New Government Headquarters built;

·       Businesses opening up in the north of the island;

·       Ferry to Antigua operating.

Lally Brown

You can follow Lally Brown on Twitter.

If you are interested in reading a dramatic eyewitness account of life with this unpredictable and dangerous volcano then the book ‘THE VOLCANO, MONTSERRAT AND ME’ by Lally Brown is highly recommended. You can order a paper back or Kindle version on Amazon .

“As time moves on and memories fade, this unique, compelling book will serve as an important and accurate first-hand record of traumatic events, faithfully and sensitively recounted by Lally Brown.”

Prof. Willy Aspinall Cabot Professor in Natural Hazards and Risk Science, Bristol University.

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• Case report
• Open access
• Published: 08 September 2024

Familial adenomatous polyposis: a case report

• Endeshaw Asaye Kindie 1 ,
• Tigist Desta Beyera 2 ,
• Ephrem Tafesse Teferi 1 ,
• Daniel Zemenfes Ashebir 3 &
• Henok Bahru Wodajeneh 3  

Journal of Medical Case Reports volume  18 , Article number:  415 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

Metrics details

Familial adenomatous polyposis is characterized by the presence of multiple colorectal adenomatous polyps and caused by germline mutations in the tumor suppressor gene and adenomatous polyposis coli, located on chromosome 5q21–q22. Familial adenomatous polyposis occurs in approximately 1/10,000 to 1/30,000 live births, and accounts for less than 1% of all colorectal cancers in the USA. It affects both sexes equally and has a worldwide distribution. The incidence of colon cancer in low- and middle-income countries is rising. In addition to the increasing incidence, lack of early detection and impeded access to optimal multidisciplinary treatment may worsen survival outcomes. Developing quality diagnostic services in the proper health context is crucial for early diagnosis and successful therapy of patients with colorectal cancer, and applying a resource-sensitive approach to prioritize essential treatments on the basis of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness is key to overcoming barriers in low- and middle-income countries. We report a case of familial adenomatous polyposis presenting as adenocarcinoma with multiple colorectal adenomatous polyps. The diagnosis of familial adenomatous polyposis was made by the presence of numerous colorectal adenomatous polyps and family history of colonic adenocarcinoma. Due to its rarity, we decided to report it.

Case presentation

A 22-year-old Ethiopian female patient presented to Addis Ababa University College of Health science, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia with rectal bleeding. Abdominopelvic computed tomography scan was done and showed distal rectal asymmetric anterior wall thickening in keeping with rectal tumor. Colonoscopy was done and she was diagnosed to have familial adenomatous polyposis with severe dysplasia. In the meantime, colonoscopy guided biopsy was taken and the diagnosis of adenocarcinoma with familial adenomatous polyposis was rendered. For this, total proctocolectomy was carried out. On laparotomy there was also incidental finding of left ovarian deposition for which left salpingo-oophorectomy was done, and 4 weeks after surgical resection, the patient was started on oxaliplatin, leucovorin, fluorouracil chemotherapy regimen.

In the clinical evaluation of a patient with rectal bleeding, familial adenomatous polyposis must be considered as a differential diagnosis in subjects having family history of colonic adenocarcinoma for early diagnostic workup, management, family genetic counseling, and testing.

Peer Review reports

Familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) is an autosomal dominant disease caused by mutations in the APC gene. Classic FAP is characterized by the presence of 100 or more adenomatous colorectal polyps. When fully developed, patients can have up to thousands of colorectal adenomas and a 100% risk of colorectal cancer. Screening for tumors associated with FAP should be performed in individuals with a pathogenic APC mutation. Screening for FAP -associated cancers should also be performed in individuals at risk for FAP who have either not undergone genetic evaluation or have indeterminate genetic test results. Screening for colorectal cancer and other FAP -associated cancers in these patients must be individualized on the basis of their personal and family history of adenomas and cancer. Individuals at risk for FAP include first-degree relatives of those with FAP and individuals with > 10 cumulative colorectal adenomas or colorectal adenomas in combination with extracolonic features associated with FAP (for example, duodenal/ampullary adenomas, desmoid tumors, papillary thyroid cancer, congenital hypertrophy of the retinal pigment epithelium, epidermal cysts, or osteomas) [ 1 ]. Polyps occur in the upper gastrointestinal tract in 83–100% of patients with FAP [ 2 , 3 ].

Considering the increasing number of locally advanced and advanced cases of colorectal cancer (CRC) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), there is an urgent need to implement screening strategies for early disease detection. Screening programs are aimed at early detection, recognizing early signs and symptoms of the presence of the disease, and treating patients with curative intent. Screening programs were reported to be more effective in slow-growing cancers with a natural history of multistage progression, such as the adenoma-carcinoma sequence in CRC. Delays in the diagnosis of CRC are multifactorial. There are social, cultural, and structural reasons such as poverty, the misbelief of the incurability of any tumor, the fear of stigma (especially in women), and structural barriers related to proper health facility accessibility due to long distances or unaffordable cancer services not covered by national health schemes of insurance [ 4 , 5 ]. There is a lack of standard diagnostic facilities in Ethiopia, generating a cancer delay in Ethiopia, which causes increased mortality due to locally advanced presentation. There are a limited number of gastroenterologists and colonoscopy units in Ethiopia, primarily located in urban areas, leaving the rural population needing access to such diagnostic facilities. Due to the shortage of workforce and endoscopic facilities, training programs need to be developed.

Primary assessment of rectal bleeding includes: careful attention to history, presence or absence of perianal symptoms, age of patient (in view of likely differential diagnosis with each age group), family history of colorectal malignancy, and red flag symptoms such as weight loss, symptoms suggestive of anemia, and change in bowel habits [ 6 ].

Examination of the abdomen to exclude abdominal mass and digital rectal examination to examine for fissure and exclude rectal cancer may be useful. Fecal calprotectin is a useful screening tool in younger, lower risk patients with suspected inflammatory bowel disease. A positive fecal calprotectin result has a high positive predictive value for finding inflammatory bowel disease at colonoscopy. Proctoscopy is useful for primary care clinicians as a screening tool in patients with rectal bleeding; however, it should not be used as a substitute for flexible sigmoidoscopy to rule out serious pathology. Secondary assessment of rectal bleeding includes: localization of the site and determination of the cause of bleeding to allow for treatment to be appropriately focused. The cause and site of massive lower gastrointestinal hemorrhage should be determined following the early use of colonoscopy and use of computed tomography, computed tomography angiography, or digital subtraction angiography. Flexible sigmoidoscopy is the investigation of choice for patients < 45 years old with persistent rectal bleeding who have received treatment for hemorrhoids and still have persistent bleeding. If there is a family history of colorectal malignancy, colonoscopy may be a better investigation for rectal bleeding as these patients have a higher risk of right colon cancers. Patients > 45 years old with persistent rectal bleeding should be offered either colonoscopy or flexible sigmoidoscopy [ 6 ].

Herein, we report a case of FAP presenting as rectal bleeding that was clinically considered as ulcerative colitis. As a result, we are reporting this case due to its rarity and to emphasize the importance of considering FAP in the differential diagnosis of rectal bleeding for early diagnostic workup, management, family genetic counseling, and testing.

A 22-year-old Ethiopian female patient presented to Addis Ababa University College of Health science, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, with a complaint of on and off type of rectal bleeding of 2-year duration with recent worsening 6 months prior to her current admission. She had visited a nearby health center on multiple occasions for this complaint and took unspecified medications, but experienced no improvement. There was no history of fever, cough, weight loss, night sweating, or loss of appetite. She was having mild abdominal distension, vomiting, abdominal pain, bloody diarrhea, and constipation starting 1 week prior to her current admission. She had family history (first degree relatives) of colon cancer but no history of diabetes or hypertension. Her past medical history was not significant. She had no previous history of admission to hospital. She had no history of any form of surgical procedures. She was not married and lived with her parents. On physical examination, there was mild abdominal tenderness, pale conjunctiva, and nonicteric sclera. On the basis of the above findings, a provisional clinical impression of ulcerative colitis was entertained.

Liver was not palpable below costal margin. There was no splenomegaly. Other clinical findings were within normal limits. Laboratory investigations carried out on the same day of her presentation, including complete blood count (CBC), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), and chest and abdominal X-ray, were noncontributory. On CBC, total white blood cell (WBC) count was 4000 µL with 50% granulocytes, 45% lymphocytes, 1% eosinophils, and 4% monocytes. Platelet count was 300,000 µL. Hemoglobin was 11.5 g/dL with mean corpuscular volume (MCV) of 75 fL. ESR was 14 mm/hour. Renal function test revealed blood urea nitrogen (BUN) of 12 mg/dL, and serum creatinine level was 0.68 mg/dL. On liver function test, total bilirubin was 0.6 mg/dL, serum albumin was 4.2 g/dL, and serum aspartate transaminase (AST/SGOT) and serum alanine transaminase (ALT/SGPT) were 28 IU/L and 30 IU/L, respectively. Serum electrolytes were in the normal range. Repeated carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level was 25 ng/mL. Urinalysis was also done and it was normal. Sputum was negative for acid-fast bacilli. Serum was negative for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) antibody. Abdominopelvic CT scan was done and showed distal rectal asymmetric anterior wall thickening in keeping with rectal tumor. Uterus, liver, spleen, bilateral ovaries, and kidneys were free of tumor. Colonoscopy was done and reveals numerous colorectal adenomatous polyps; in the meantime, colonoscopy guided biopsy was carried out and the patient was diagnosed with adenocarcinoma. Due to limited number of surgeons and long waiting list of patients, she underwent total proctocolectomy 1 week after her initial presentation. On laparotomy there was also incidental finding of left ovarian deposition, for which left salpingo-oophorectomy was carried out. The specimen was sent to pathology department for gross and histopathologic examination. Gross cut surface examination of proctocolectomy specimen showed numerous adenomatous polyps involving rectum and the entire colon, while there was gray white solid infiltrating mass on left salpingo-oophorectomy specimen (Figs.  1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ).

Gross total proctocolectomy specimen

Gross cut surface specimen of total proctocolectomy showing numerous polyps

Gross cut surface specimen of total proctocolectomy showing numerous polyps (block arrows) involving distal to splenic flexure

Gross left salphingo-oophorectomy specimen (block arrow) and cut surface of it showing gray white solid infiltrating mass (star)

Microscopic examinations from both adenomatous polyps and infiltrating gray white solid mass of left salpingo-oophorectomy specimen showed proliferations of highly pleomorphic round-to-oval to polygonal cells having hyperchromatic nuclei and frequent mitotic activities forming variable sized glands admixed with desmoplastic stroma (Figs.  5 , 6 , 7 ). Out of 20 lymph nodes sampled, 7 were involved by tumor. On the basis of above findings, the case was diagnosed as adenocarcinoma with lymph node and left ovary metastasis plus FAP. The patient had good postoperative condition, and 4 weeks after surgical resection, she was started on FOLFOX (oxaliplatin 85 mg/m 2 intravenous, leucovorin 400 mg/m 2 intravenous, fluorouracil 400 mg/m 2 intravenous bolus then 2400 mg/m 2 intravenous administered over 46 hours) chemotherapy regimen every 2 weeks for 12 rounds. Since then, she was followed up with regular serum CEA, CBC, organ function tests and abdominopelvic CT scan. The patient was having a smooth course with no significant adverse effects encountered. Currently the patient has completed her chemotherapy regimen and is doing well.

Gross cut surface specimen of polypectomy (block arrow) and low power microscopic examination of it (star) showing variable sized glands lined by highly pleomorphic round-to-oval to elongated pencil shaped cells having hyperchromatic nuclei on a desmoplastic stroma (hematoxylin and eosin stain)

High-power microscopic examination of polypectomy specimen showing variable sized glands (block arrows) lined by highly pleomorphic round-to-oval cells having hyperchromatic nuclei on a desmoplastic stroma (star) (hematoxylin and eosin stain)

High-power microscopic examination of gray white solid infiltrating mass of salpingo-oophorectomy specimen showing variable sized glands (block arrow) lined by highly pleomorphic round-to-oval cells having hyperchromatic nuclei on a desmoplastic ovarian stroma (star) (hematoxylin and eosin stain)

There is an urgent need for screening strategies for the early detection of colorectal cancer in LMICs, with delays in diagnosis due to social, cultural, and structural barriers. Cost considerations play a role in the success of screening programs, and primary prevention strategies such as education and healthy living are essential. Screening policies for CRC require the engagement of medical leaders, advocacy groups, education, and national cancer control plans. Investment opportunities in the healthcare system need to be identified to maximize benefits. There is a lack of standard diagnostic facilities, imaging techniques, and pathology reporting consensus in most low-income countries, causing a delay in cancer diagnosis and increased mortality due to locally advanced presentation; and while molecular biomarkers are increasingly utilized in management, their implementation in LMICs should prioritize those that are clinically useful, validated, and cost-effective, and building partnerships with HICs for developing research precision biomarkers laboratory and cost-effective strategies should be part of future planning for LMICs. To improve CRC care in LMICs, there is a need to promote clinical research and include clinical data from LMICs in international literature, expand clinical trials, and establish research collaborations between HICs and LMICs. Improving the infrastructure for diagnosis, surgery, and medical and radiation oncology, as well as ensuring access to essential chemotherapy drugs and palliative cancer care is necessary to provide optimal treatment to patients with CRC in LMICs, and should be incorporated into national health policies with adequate funding. Primary prevention strategies are essential in educating the general population, including a healthy diet and living, physical activity, avoiding smoking and alcohol use, and encouraging them to participate in CRC screening. Implementing these primary prevention strategies in LMICs at a population level may control risk factors of noncommunicable disease. We may also have to focus on populations with a high risk of developing colorectal tumors. Well-defined inherited syndromes such as Lynch’s syndrome or familial adenomatous polyposis can occur in 2–5% of CRCs.

Education needs to be improved, and it is crucial to provide access to genetic testing to identify high-risk populations for screening and provide primary preventive surgery or personalized endoscopic plans [ 7 ]. Although there are few private sector clinical laboratories in Ethiopia that help clinicians in molecular diagnosis of cancer, the majority of patients cannot afford the high cost of molecular studies. The same was true for our patient.

Practical management of lower gastrointestinal (LGI) bleeding depends on the severity of the hemorrhage and the availability of diagnostic and therapeutic methods at the admitting facility. Endoscopic and radiological techniques have improved to the point that the site of bleeding can be localized in the majority of cases. In addition, episodes of LGI bleeding are less serious than upper gastrointestinal bleeding, with an 80% rate of spontaneous cessation of bleeding and a lower mortality of 2–4% [ 8 ] versus 6–13% [ 9 ]. It is therefore appropriate to stabilize the patient hemodynamically for transfer to a larger center if expertise in noninvasive diagnostic and therapeutic interventions is not available locally. Similarly, if the bleeding has stopped spontaneously and all investigations are noncontributory, supportive medical management can be continued with repetition of examinations if bleeding recurs. While there is no clear consensus for management as there is for upper gastrointestinal (UGI) bleeding, the following course of management can be proposed on the basis of an overview of all the diagnostic and therapeutic modalities and in accordance with the recommendations of the French Society of Digestive Endoscopy (SFED), American Gastroenterological Association (AGA), and American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) [ 10 , 11 , 12 ]. Proposed management of acute LGI and chronic LGI bleeding with no hemodynamic instability is shown in Figs.  8 and 9 , respectively.

Management of acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding

Management of chronic lower gastrointestinal bleeding with no hemodynamic instability

All patients with lower gastrointestinal bleeding should undergo initial upper endoscopy and urgent colonoscopy after bowel preparation. If there is active ongoing bleeding, angiography also seems indicated as an initial investigation. Currently, Computed Tomography Angiography (CTA) has many advantages: it is available in most centers, can be performed quickly with a satisfactory diagnostic yield when there is active bleeding, and helps to guide a therapeutic colonoscopy or embolization. At this stage, the site of bleeding has been localized in most cases. If diagnostic studies are negative, continued efforts should be made to locate the bleeding site rather than resorting to “blind” exploratory surgery, which has a high mortality and is likely to be non-contributory. Video capsule enteroscopy (VCE) has gradually emerged as a second-line modality for visualizing the small intestine, even in the emergency setting [ 13 ]. Our patient had also undergone colonoscopy, and the clinical diagnosis of ulcerative colitis was ruled out and she was diagnosed with FAP. Colorectal cancer accounts for 65% of ovarian metastases, with an increasing percentage reported in recent years [ 14 , 15 , 16 ]. Conversely, ovarian metastases occur in 5–10% of women with metastatic colorectal cancer [ 17 ]. Our patient was also diagnosed with poorly differentiated colonic adenocarcinoma involving distal to the splenic flexure with lymph node and left ovary metastasis.

In the ideal situation, patients with FAP would undergo a prophylactic colectomy shortly before CRC would otherwise have developed. However, it is difficult to predict when exactly the adenomas will develop into cancer. The number, size, and endoscopic and histopathological aspect of colorectal adenomas determine whether further endoscopic surveillance is safe. Indications for colectomy generally include the presence of multiple polyps > 10 mm, polyps that are high-grade dysplastic, and a rapid increase in the number of polyps [ 18 ]. However, timing of colectomy in FAP should always be a shared decision with the patient, taking into account social and educational/career factors. Colectomy should be performed on a moment in time that suits both the severity of polyposis and the preference of the patient. When the indication for colectomy is set, the next decision to be made is on the type of operation, that is, whether only the entire colon will be removed or the rectum as well. The preferred and most often performed procedures are a subtotal colectomy with an ileorectal or ileosigmoidal anastomosis or a more extensive proctocolectomy with ileal pouch–anal anastomosis [ 19 , 20 ]. Our patient had also undergone total proctocolectomy.

Our FAP case report signifies there is an urgent need to develop national cancer screening in LMICs. Developing screening policies for CRC will involve many factors, including workforce, medical equipment, and cost-effectiveness varying across LMICs, as well as increasing health literacy and educating the general population to discuss cancer in the community and detect it early by recognizing signs and symptoms. To maximize the benefits of cancer prevention programs, it is worth identifying and defining investment opportunities in the healthcare system, with clinical research collaborations between HICs and LMICs being a helpful strategy to improve health indicators and prevent the burnout of health workers. The patient was very satisfied with the intervention and care given.

Interprofessional management of patients with FAP is essential to ensuring appropriate screening and management of these complex cases. Early endoscopic surveillance is essential to determine the appropriate timing of surgical resection. Although medical treatments can aid in the stabilization of the disease, the mainstay of FAP treatment is colectomy with or without proctectomy. Extra-colonic manifestations also require intensive screening recommendations with close clinical follow-up of patients with FAP. With surveillance and surgical resection, patients with FAP can substantially reduce their risk of colorectal cancer and other associated malignancies.

Availability of data and materials

Data sharing does not apply to this article as no new data were created or analyzed in this study.

Abbreviations

High-income countries

• Low- and middle-income countries
• Familial adenomatous polyposis
• Adenomatous polyposis coli

Oxaliplatin, leucovorin, fluorouracil

Carcinoembryonic antigen

Colorectal cancer

Assisted enteroscopy

Video capsule enteroscopy

Computed tomography enteroscopy

Magnetic resonance imaging enteroscopy

Tc99 m radio-labelled RBC scan

Intraoperative enteroscopy

Lower gastrointestinal

American Gastroenterological Association

American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy

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Acknowledgements

We would like to express our deepest gratitude to Addis Ababa University College of Health science, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

No funding was available.

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Authors and affiliations.

University of Gondar College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Gondar, Ethiopia

Endeshaw Asaye Kindie & Ephrem Tafesse Teferi

Armeaur Hansen Research Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Tigist Desta Beyera

Addis Ababa University College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Daniel Zemenfes Ashebir & Henok Bahru Wodajeneh

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Contributions

EAK and TDB performed the gross and histopathologic examination of the proctocolectomy and salpingo-oophorectomy specimen, and were major contributors in writing the case report. ETT, DZA, and HBW revised the case report. All authors read and approved the case report.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Endeshaw Asaye Kindie .

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Longitudinal analysis of teacher self-efficacy evolution during a STEAM professional development program: a qualitative case study

• Haozhe Jiang   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-7870-0993 1 ,
• Ritesh Chugh   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-0061-7206 2 ,
• Xuesong Zhai   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-4179-7859 1 , 3   nAff7 ,
• Ke Wang 4 &
• Xiaoqin Wang 5 , 6  

Humanities and Social Sciences Communications volume  11 , Article number:  1162 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

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Despite the widespread advocacy for the integration of arts and humanities (A&H) into science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education on an international scale, teachers face numerous obstacles in practically integrating A&H into STEM teaching (IAT). To tackle the challenges, a comprehensive five-stage framework for teacher professional development programs focussed on IAT has been developed. Through the use of a qualitative case study approach, this study outlines the shifts in a participant teacher’s self-efficacy following their exposure to each stage of the framework. The data obtained from interviews and reflective analyses were analyzed using a seven-stage inductive method. The findings have substantiated the significant impact of a teacher professional development program based on the framework on teacher self-efficacy, evident in both individual performance and student outcomes observed over eighteen months. The evolution of teacher self-efficacy in IAT should be regarded as an open and multi-level system, characterized by interactions with teacher knowledge, skills and other entrenched beliefs. Building on our research findings, an enhanced model of teacher professional learning is proposed. The revised model illustrates that professional learning for STEAM teachers should be conceived as a continuous and sustainable process, characterized by the dynamic interaction among teaching performance, teacher knowledge, and teacher beliefs. The updated model further confirms the inseparable link between teacher learning and student learning within STEAM education. This study contributes to the existing body of literature on teacher self-efficacy, teacher professional learning models and the design of IAT teacher professional development programs.

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Introduction.

In the past decade, there has been a surge in the advancement and widespread adoption of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) education on a global scale (Jiang et al. 2021 ; Jiang et al. 2022 ; Jiang et al. 2023 ; Jiang et al. 2024a , b ; Zhan et al. 2023 ; Zhan and Niu 2023 ; Zhong et al. 2022 ; Zhong et al. 2024 ). Concurrently, there has been a growing chorus of advocates urging the integration of Arts and Humanities (A&H) into STEM education (e.g., Alkhabra et al. 2023 ; Land 2020 ; Park and Cho 2022 ; Uştu et al. 2021 ; Vaziri and Bradburn 2021 ). STEM education is frequently characterized by its emphasis on logic and analysis; however, it may be perceived as deficient in emotional and intuitive elements (Ozkan and Umdu Topsakal 2021 ). Through the integration of Arts and Humanities (A&H), the resulting STEAM approach has the potential to become more holistic, incorporating both rationality and emotional intelligence (Ozkan and Umdu Topsakal 2021 ). Many studies have confirmed that A&H can help students increase interest and develop their understanding of the contents in STEM fields, and thus, A&H can attract potential underrepresented STEM learners such as female students and minorities (Land 2020 ; Park and Cho 2022 ; Perignat and Katz-Buonincontro 2019 ). Despite the increasing interest in STEAM, the approaches to integrating A&H, which represent fundamentally different disciplines, into STEM are theoretically and practically ambiguous (Jacques et al. 2020 ; Uştu et al. 2021 ). Moreover, studies have indicated that the implementation of STEAM poses significant challenges, with STEM educators encountering difficulties in integrating A&H into their teaching practices (e.g., Boice et al. 2021 ; Duong et al. 2024 ; Herro et al. 2019 ; Jacques et al. 2020 ; Park and Cho 2022 ; Perignat and Katz-Buonincontro 2019 ). Hence, there is a pressing need to provide STEAM teachers with effective professional training.

Motivated by this gap, this study proposes a novel five-stage framework tailored for teacher professional development programs specifically designed to facilitate the integration of A&H into STEM teaching (IAT). Following the establishment of this framework, a series of teacher professional development programs were implemented. To explain the framework, a qualitative case study is employed, focusing on examining a specific teacher professional development program’s impact on a pre-service teacher’s self-efficacy. The case narratives, with a particular focus on the pre-service teacher’s changes in teacher self-efficacy, are organized chronologically, delineating stages before and after each stage of the teacher professional development program. More specifically, meaningful vignettes of the pre-service teacher’s learning and teaching experiences during the teacher professional development program are offered to help understand the five-stage framework. This study contributes to understanding teacher self-efficacy, teacher professional learning model and the design of IAT teacher professional development programs.

Theoretical background

The conceptualization of steam education.

STEM education can be interpreted through various lenses (e.g., Jiang et al. 2021 ; English 2016 ). As Li et al. (2020) claimed, on the one hand, STEM education can be defined as individual STEM disciplinary-based education (i.e., science education, technology education, engineering education and mathematics education). On the other hand, STEM education can also be defined as interdisciplinary or cross-disciplinary education where individual STEM disciplines are integrated (Jiang et al. 2021 ; English 2016 ). In this study, we view it as individual disciplinary-based education separately in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (English 2016 ).

STEAM education emerged as a new pedagogy during the Americans for the Arts-National Policy Roundtable discussion in 2007 (Perignat and Katz-Buonincontro 2019 ). This pedagogy was born out of the necessity to enhance students’ engagement, foster creativity, stimulate innovation, improve problem-solving abilities, and cultivate employability skills such as teamwork, communication and adaptability (Perignat and Katz-Buonincontro 2019 ). In particular, within the framework of STEAM education, the ‘A’ should be viewed as a broad concept that represents arts and humanities (A&H) (Herro and Quigley 2016 ; de la Garza 2021 , Park and Cho 2022 ). This conceptualization emphasizes the need to include humanities subjects alongside arts (Herro and Quigley 2016 ; de la Garza 2021 ; Park and Cho 2022 ). Sanz-Camarero et al. ( 2023 ) listed some important fields of A&H, including physical arts, fine arts, manual arts, sociology, politics, philosophy, history, psychology and so on.

In general, STEM education does not necessarily entail the inclusion of all STEM disciplines collectively (Ozkan and Umdu Topsakal 2021 ), and this principle also applies to STEAM education (Gates 2017 ; Perignat and Katz-Buonincontro 2019 ; Quigley et al. 2017 ; Smith and Paré 2016 ). As an illustration, Smith and Paré ( 2016 ) described a STEAM activity in which pottery (representing A&H) and mathematics were integrated, while other STEAM elements such as science, technology and engineering were not included. In our study, STEAM education is conceptualized as an interdisciplinary approach that involves the integration of one or more components of A&H into one or more STEM school subjects within educational activities (Ozkan and Umdu Topsakal 2021 ; Vaziri and Bradburn 2021 ). Notably, interdisciplinary collaboration entails integrating one or more elements from arts and humanities (A&H) with one or more STEM school subjects, cohesively united by a shared theme while maintaining their distinct identities (Perignat and Katz-Buonincontro 2019 ).

In our teacher professional development programs, we help mathematics, technology, and science pre-service teachers integrate one component of A&H into their disciplinary-based teaching practices. For instance, we help mathematics teachers integrate history (a component of A&H) into mathematics teaching. In other words, in our study, integrating A&H into STEM teaching (IAT) can be defined as integrating one component of A&H into the teaching of one of the STEM school subjects. The components of A&H and the STEM school subject are brought together under a common theme, but each of them remains discrete. Engineering is not taught as an individual subject in the K-12 curriculum in mainland China. Therefore, A&H is not integrated into engineering teaching in our teacher professional development programs.

Self-efficacy and teacher self-efficacy

Self-efficacy was initially introduced by Bandura ( 1977 ) as a key concept within his social cognitive theory. Bandura ( 1997 ) defined self-efficacy as “people’s beliefs about their capabilities to produce designated levels of performance that exercise influence over events that affect their lives” (p. 71). Based on Bandura’s ( 1977 ) theory, Tschannen-Moran et al. ( 1998 ) defined the concept of teacher self-efficacy Footnote 1 as “a teacher’s belief in her or his ability to organize and execute the courses of action required to successfully accomplish a specific teaching task in a particular context” (p. 233). Blonder et al. ( 2014 ) pointed out that this definition implicitly included teachers’ judgment of their ability to bring about desired outcomes in terms of students’ engagement and learning. Moreover, OECD ( 2018 ) defined teacher self-efficacy as “the beliefs that teachers have of their ability to enact certain teaching behavior that influences students’ educational outcomes, such as achievement, interest, and motivation” (p. 51). This definition explicitly included two dimensions: teachers’ judgment of the ability related to their teaching performance (i.e., enacting certain teaching behavior) and their influence on student outcomes.

It is argued that teacher self-efficacy should not be regarded as a general or overarching construct (Zee et al. 2017 ; Zee and Koomen 2016 ). Particularly, in the performance-driven context of China, teachers always connect their beliefs in their professional capabilities with the educational outcomes of their students (Liu et al. 2018 ). Therefore, we operationally conceptualize teacher self-efficacy as having two dimensions: self-efficacy in individual performance and student outcomes (see Table 1 ).

Most importantly, given its consistent association with actual teaching performance and student outcomes (Bray-Clark and Bates 2003 ; Kelley et al. 2020 ), teacher self-efficacy is widely regarded as a pivotal indicator of teacher success (Kelley et al. 2020 ). Moreover, the enhancement of teaching self-efficacy reflects the effectiveness of teacher professional development programs (Bray-Clark and Bates 2003 ; Kelley et al. 2020 ; Wong et al. 2022 ; Zhou et al. 2023 ). For instance, Zhou et al. ( 2023 ) claimed that in STEM teacher education, effective teacher professional development programs should bolster teachers’ self-efficacy “in teaching the content in the STEM discipline” (p. 2).

It has been documented that teachers frequently experience diminished confidence and comfort when teaching subject areas beyond their expertise (Kelley et al. 2020 ; Stohlmann et al. 2012 ). This diminished confidence extends to their self-efficacy in implementing interdisciplinary teaching approaches, such as integrated STEM teaching and IAT (Kelley et al. 2020 ). For instance, Geng et al. ( 2019 ) found that STEM teachers in Hong Kong exhibited low levels of self-efficacy, with only 5.53% of teachers rating their overall self-efficacy in implementing STEM education as higher than a score of 4 out of 5. Additionally, Hunter-Doniger and Sydow ( 2016 ) found that teachers may experience apprehension and lack confidence when incorporating A&H elements into the classroom context, particularly within the framework of IAT. Considering the critical importance of teacher self-efficacy in STEM and STEAM education (Kelley et al. 2020 ; Zakariya, 2020 ; Zhou et al. 2023 ), it is necessary to explore effective measures, frameworks and teacher professional development programs to help teachers improve their self-efficacy regarding interdisciplinary teaching (e.g., IAT).

Teacher professional learning models

The relationship between teachers’ professional learning and students’ outcomes (such as achievements, skills and attitudes) has been a subject of extensive discussion and research for many years (Clarke and Hollingsworth 2002 ). For instance, Clarke and Hollingsworth ( 2002 ) proposed and validated the Interconnected Model of Professional Growth, which illustrates that teacher professional development is influenced by the interaction among four interconnected domains: the personal domain (teacher knowledge, beliefs and attitudes), the domain of practice (professional experimentation), the domain of consequence (salient outcomes), and the external domain (sources of information, stimulus or support). Sancar et al. ( 2021 ) emphasized that teachers’ professional learning or development never occurs independently. In practice, this process is inherently intertwined with many variables, including student outcomes, in various ways (Sancar et al. 2021 ). However, many current teacher professional development programs exclude real in-class teaching and fail to establish a comprehensive link between teachers’ professional learning and student outcomes (Cai et al. 2020 ; Sancar et al. 2021 ). Sancar et al. ( 2021 ) claimed that exploring the complex relationships between teachers’ professional learning and student outcomes should be grounded in monitoring and evaluating real in-class teaching, rather than relying on teachers’ self-assessment. It is essential to understand these relationships from a holistic perspective within the context of real classroom teaching (Sancar et al. 2021 ). However, as Sancar et al. ( 2021 ) pointed out, such efforts in teacher education are often considered inadequate. Furthermore, in the field of STEAM education, such efforts are further exacerbated.

Cai et al. ( 2020 ) proposed a teacher professional learning model where student outcomes are emphasized. This model was developed based on Cai ( 2017 ), Philipp ( 2007 ) and Thompson ( 1992 ). It has also been used and justified in a series of teacher professional development programs (e.g., Calabrese et al. 2024 ; Hwang et al. 2024 ; Marco and Palatnik 2024 ; Örnek and Soylu 2021 ). The model posits that teachers typically increase their knowledge and modify their beliefs through professional teacher learning, subsequently improving their classroom instruction, enhancing teaching performance, and ultimately fostering improved student learning outcomes (Cai et al. 2020 ). Notably, this model can be updated in several aspects. Firstly, prior studies have exhibited the interplay between teacher knowledge and beliefs (e.g., Basckin et al. 2021 ; Taimalu and Luik 2019 ). This indicates that the increase in teacher knowledge and the change in teacher belief may not be parallel. The two processes can be intertwined. Secondly, the Interconnected Model of Professional Growth highlights that the personal domain and the domain of practice are interconnected (Clarke and Hollingsworth 2002 ). Liu et al. ( 2022 ) also confirmed that improvements in classroom instruction may, in turn, influence teacher beliefs. This necessitates a reconsideration of the relationships between classroom instruction, teacher knowledge and teacher beliefs in Cai et al.’s ( 2020 ) model. Thirdly, the Interconnected Model of Professional Growth also exhibits the connections between the domain of consequence and the personal domain (Clarke and Hollingsworth 2002 ). Hence, the improvement of learning outcomes may signify the end of teacher learning. For instance, students’ learning feedback may be a vital source of teacher self-efficacy (Bandura 1977 ). Therefore, the improvement of student outcomes may, in turn, affect teacher beliefs. The aforementioned arguments highlight the need for an updated model that integrates Cai et al.’s ( 2020 ) teacher professional learning model with Clarke and Hollingsworth’s ( 2002 ) Interconnected Model of Professional Growth. This integration may provide a holistic view of the teacher’s professional learning process, especially within the complex contexts of STEAM teacher education.

The framework for teacher professional development programs of integrating arts and humanities into STEM teaching

In this section, we present a framework for IAT teacher professional development programs, aiming to address the practical challenges associated with STEAM teaching implementation. Our framework incorporates the five features of effective teacher professional development programs outlined by Archibald et al. ( 2011 ), Cai et al. ( 2020 ), Darling-Hammond et al. ( 2017 ), Desimone and Garet ( 2015 ) and Roth et al. ( 2017 ). These features include: (a) alignment with shared goals (e.g., school, district, and national policies and practice), (b) emphasis on core content and modeling of teaching strategies for the content, (c) collaboration among teachers within a community, (d) adequate opportunities for active learning of new teaching strategies, and (e) embedded follow-up and continuous feedback. It is worth noting that two concepts, namely community of practice and lesson study, have been incorporated into our framework. Below, we delineate how these features are reflected in our framework.

(a) The Chinese government has issued a series of policies to facilitate STEAM education in K-12 schools (Jiang et al. 2021 ; Li and Chiang 2019 ; Lyu et al. 2024 ; Ro et al. 2022 ). The new curriculum standards released in 2022 mandate that all K-12 teachers implement interdisciplinary teaching, including STEAM education. Our framework for teacher professional development programs, which aims to help teachers integrate A&H into STEM teaching, closely aligns with these national policies and practices supporting STEAM education in K-12 schools.

(b) The core content of the framework is IAT. Specifically, as A&H is a broad concept, we divide it into several subcomponents, such as history, culture, and visual and performing arts (e.g., drama). We are implementing a series of teacher professional development programs to help mathematics, technology and science pre-service teachers integrate these subcomponents of A&H into their teaching Footnote 2 . Notably, pre-service teachers often lack teaching experience, making it challenging to master and implement new teaching strategies. Therefore, our framework provides five step-by-step stages designed to help them effectively model the teaching strategies of IAT.

(c) Our framework advocates for collaboration among teachers within a community of practice. Specifically, a community of practice is “a group of people who share an interest in a domain of human endeavor and engage in a process of collective learning that creates bonds between them” (Wenger et al. 2002 , p. 1). A teacher community of practice can be considered a group of teachers “sharing and critically observing their practices in growth-promoting ways” (Näykki et al. 2021 , p. 497). Long et al. ( 2021 ) claimed that in a teacher community of practice, members collaboratively share their teaching experiences and work together to address teaching problems. Our community of practice includes three types of members. (1) Mentors: These are professors and experts with rich experience in helping pre-service teachers practice IAT. (2) Pre-service teachers: Few have teaching experience before the teacher professional development programs. (3) In-service teachers: All in-service teachers are senior teachers with rich teaching experience. All the members work closely together to share and improve their IAT practice. Moreover, our community includes not only mentors and in-service teachers but also pre-service teachers. We encourage pre-service teachers to collaborate with experienced in-service teachers in various ways, such as developing IAT lesson plans, writing IAT case reports and so on. In-service teachers can provide cognitive and emotional support and share their practical knowledge and experience, which may significantly benefit the professional growth of pre-service teachers (Alwafi et al. 2020 ).

(d) Our framework offers pre-service teachers various opportunities to engage in lesson study, allowing them to actively design and implement IAT lessons. Based on the key points of effective lesson study outlined by Akiba et al. ( 2019 ), Ding et al. ( 2024 ), and Takahashi and McDougal ( 2016 ), our lesson study incorporates the following seven features. (1) Study of IAT materials: Pre-service teachers are required to study relevant IAT materials under the guidance of mentors. (2) Collaboration on lesson proposals: Pre-service teachers should collaborate with in-service teachers to develop comprehensive lesson proposals. (3) Observation and data collection: During the lesson, pre-service teachers are required to carefully observe and collect data on student learning and development. (4) Reflection and analysis: Pre-service teachers use the collected data to reflect on the lesson and their teaching effects. (5) Lesson revision and reteaching: If needed, pre-service teachers revise and reteach the lesson based on their reflections and data analysis. (6) Mentor and experienced in-service teacher involvement: Mentors and experienced in-service teachers, as knowledgeable others, are involved throughout the lesson study process. (7) Collaboration on reporting: Pre-service teachers collaborate with in-service teachers to draft reports and disseminate the results of the lesson study. Specifically, recognizing that pre-service teachers often lack teaching experience, we do not require them to complete all the steps of lesson study independently at once. Instead, we guide them through the lesson study process in a step-by-step manner, allowing them to gradually build their IAT skills and confidence. For instance, in Stage 1, pre-service teachers primarily focus on studying IAT materials. In Stage 2, they develop lesson proposals, observe and collect data, and draft reports. However, the implementation of IAT lessons is carried out by in-service teachers. This approach prevents pre-service teachers from experiencing failures due to their lack of teaching experience. In Stage 3, pre-service teachers implement, revise, and reteach IAT lessons, experiencing the lesson study process within a simulated environment. In Stage 4, pre-service teachers engage in lesson study in an actual classroom environment. However, their focus is limited to one micro-course during each lesson study session. It is not until the fifth stage that they experience a complete lesson study in an actual classroom environment.

(e) Our teacher professional development programs incorporate assessments specifically designed to evaluate pre-service teachers’ IAT practices. We use formative assessments to measure their understanding and application of IAT strategies. Pre-service teachers receive ongoing and timely feedback from peers, mentors, in-service teachers, and students, which helps them continuously refine their IAT practices throughout the program. Recognizing that pre-service teachers often have limited contact with real students and may not fully understand students’ learning needs, processes and outcomes, our framework requires them to actively collect and analyze student feedback. By doing so, they can make informed improvements to their instructional practice based on student feedback.

After undergoing three rounds of theoretical and practical testing and revision over the past five years, we have successfully finalized the optimization of the framework design (Zhou 2021 ). Throughout each cycle, we collected feedback from both participants and researchers on at least three occasions. Subsequently, we analyzed this feedback and iteratively refined the framework. For example, we enlisted the participation of in-service teachers to enhance the implementation of STEAM teaching, extended practice time through micro-teaching sessions, and introduced a stage of micro-course development within the framework to provide more opportunities for pre-service teachers to engage with real teaching situations. In this process, we continuously improved the coherence between each stage of the framework, ensuring that they mutually complement one another. The five-stage framework is described as follows.

Stage 1 Literature study

Pre-service teachers are provided with a series of reading materials from A&H. On a weekly basis, two pre-service teachers are assigned to present their readings and reflections to the entire group, followed by critical discussions thereafter. Mentors and all pre-service teachers discuss and explore strategies for translating the original A&H materials into viable instructional resources suitable for classroom use. Subsequently, pre-service teachers select topics of personal interest for further study under mentor guidance.

Stage 2 Case learning

Given that pre-service teachers have no teaching experience, collaborative efforts between in-service teachers and pre-service teachers are undertaken to design IAT lesson plans. Subsequently, the in-service teachers implement these plans. Throughout this process, pre-service teachers are afforded opportunities to engage in lesson plan implementation. Figure 1 illustrates the role of pre-service teachers in case learning. In the first step, pre-service teachers read about materials related to A&H, select suitable materials, and report their ideas on IAT lesson design to mentors, in-service teachers, and fellow pre-service teachers.

Note: A&H refers to arts and humanities.

In the second step, they liaise with the in-service teachers responsible for implementing the lesson plan, discussing the integration of A&H into teaching practices. Pre-service teachers then analyze student learning objectives aligned with curriculum standards, collaboratively designing the IAT lesson plan with in-service teachers. Subsequently, pre-service teachers present lesson plans for feedback from mentors and other in-service teachers.

In the third step, pre-service teachers observe the lesson plan’s implementation, gathering and analyzing feedback from students and in-service teachers using an inductive approach (Merriam 1998 ). Feedback includes opinions on the roles and values of A&H, perceptions of the teaching effect, and recommendations for lesson plan implementation and modification. The second and third steps may iterate multiple times to refine the IAT lesson plan. In the fourth step, pre-service teachers consolidate all data, including various versions of teaching instructions, classroom videos, feedback, and discussion notes, composing reflection notes. Finally, pre-service teachers collaborate with in-service teachers to compile the IAT case report and submit it for publication.

Stage 3 Micro-teaching

Figure 2 illustrates the role of pre-service teachers in micro-teaching. Before entering the micro-classrooms Footnote 3 , all the discussions and communications occur within the pre-service teacher group, excluding mentors and in-service teachers. After designing the IAT lesson plan, pre-service teachers take turns implementing 40-min lesson plans in a simulated micro-classroom setting. Within this simulated environment, one pre-service teacher acts as the teacher, while others, including mentors, in-service teachers, and other fellow pre-service teachers, assume the role of students Footnote 4 . Following the simulated teaching, the implementer reviews the video of their session and self-assesses their performance. Subsequently, the implementer receives feedback from other pre-service teachers, mentors, and in-service teachers. Based on this feedback, the implementer revisits steps 2 and 3, revising the lesson plan and conducting the simulated teaching again. This iterative process typically repeats at least three times until the mentors, in-service teachers, and other pre-service teachers are satisfied with the implementation of the revised lesson plan. Finally, pre-service teachers complete reflection notes and submit a summary of their reflections on the micro-teaching experience. Each pre-service teacher is required to choose at least three topics and undergo at least nine simulated teaching sessions.

Stage 4 Micro-course development

While pre-service teachers may not have the opportunity to execute the whole lesson plans in real classrooms, they can design and create five-minute micro-courses Footnote 5 before class, subsequently presenting these videos to actual students. The process of developing micro-courses closely mirrors that of developing IAT cases in the case learning stage (see Fig. 1 ). However, in Step 3, pre-service teachers assume dual roles, not only as observers of IAT lesson implementation but also as implementers of a five-minute IAT micro-course.

Stage 5 Classroom teaching

Pre-service teachers undertake the implementation of IAT lesson plans independently, a process resembling micro-teaching (see Fig. 2 ). However, pre-service teachers engage with real school students in partner schools Footnote 6 instead of simulated classrooms. Furthermore, they collect feedback not only from the mentors, in-service teachers, and fellow pre-service teachers but also from real students.

To provide our readers with a better understanding of the framework, we provide meaningful vignettes of a pre-service teacher’s learning and teaching experiences in one of the teacher professional development programs based on the framework. In addition, we choose teacher self-efficacy as an indicator to assess the framework’s effectiveness, detailing the pre-service teacher’s changes in teacher self-efficacy.

Research design

Research method.

Teacher self-efficacy can be measured both quantitatively and qualitatively (Bandura 1986 , 1997 ; Lee and Bobko 1994 ; Soprano and Yang 2013 ; Unfried et al. 2022 ). However, researchers and theorists in the area of teacher self-efficacy have called for more qualitative and longitudinal studies (Klassen et al. 2011 ). As some critiques stated, most studies were based on correlational and cross-sectional data obtained from self-report surveys, and qualitative studies of teacher efficacy were overwhelmingly neglected (Henson 2002 ; Klassen et al. 2011 ; Tschannen-Moran et al. 1998 ; Xenofontos and Andrews 2020 ). There is an urgent need for more longitudinal studies to shed light on the development of teacher efficacy (Klassen et al. 2011 ; Xenofontos and Andrews 2020 ).

This study utilized a longitudinal qualitative case study methodology to delve deeply into the context (Jiang et al. 2021 ; Corden and Millar 2007 ; Dicks et al. 2023 ; Henderson et al. 2012 ; Matusovich et al. 2010 ; Shirani and Henwood 2011 ), presenting details grounded in real-life situations and analyzing the inner relationships rather than generalize findings about the change of a large group of pre-service teachers’ self-efficacy.

Participant

This study forms a component of a broader multi-case research initiative examining teachers’ professional learning in the STEAM teacher professional development programs in China (Jiang et al. 2021 ; Wang et al. 2018 ; Wang et al. 2024 ). Within this context, one participant, Shuitao (pseudonym), is selected and reported in this current study. Shuitao was a first-year graduate student at a first-tier Normal university in Shanghai, China. Normal universities specialize in teacher education. Her graduate major was mathematics curriculum and instruction. Teaching practice courses are offered to students in this major exclusively during their third year of study. The selection of Shuitao was driven by three primary factors. Firstly, Shuitao attended the entire teacher professional development program and actively engaged in nearly all associated activities. Table 2 illustrates the timeline of the five stages in which Shuitao was involved. Secondly, her undergraduate major was applied mathematics, which was not related to mathematics teaching Footnote 7 . She possessed no prior teaching experience and had not undergone any systematic study of IAT before her involvement in the teacher professional development program. Thirdly, her other master’s courses during her first two years of study focused on mathematics education theory and did not include IAT Footnote 8 . Additionally, she scarcely participated in any other teaching practice outside of the teacher professional development program. As a pre-service teacher, Shuitao harbored a keen interest in IAT. Furthermore, she discovered that she possessed fewer teaching skills compared to her peers who had majored in education during their undergraduate studies. Hence, she had a strong desire to enhance her teaching skills. Consequently, Shuitao decided to participate in our teacher professional development program.

Shuitao was grouped with three other first-year graduate students during the teacher professional development program. She actively collaborated with them at every stage of the program. For instance, they advised each other on their IAT lesson designs, observed each other’s IAT practice and offered constructive suggestions for improvement.

Research question

Shuitao was a mathematics pre-service teacher who participated in one of our teacher professional development programs, focusing on integrating history into mathematics teaching (IHT) Footnote 9 . Notably, this teacher professional development program was designed based on our five-stage framework for teacher professional development programs of IAT. To examine the impact of this teacher professional development program on Shuitao’s self-efficacy related to IHT, this case study addresses the following research question:

What changes in Shuitao’s self-efficacy in individual performance regarding integrating history into mathematics teaching (SE-IHT-IP) may occur through participation in the teacher professional development program?

What changes in Shuitao’s self-efficacy in student outcomes regarding integrating history into mathematics teaching (SE-IHT-SO) may occur through participation in the teacher professional development program?

Data collection and analysis

Before Shuitao joined the teacher professional development program, a one-hour preliminary interview was conducted to guide her in self-narrating her psychological and cognitive state of IHT.

During the teacher professional development program, follow-up unstructured interviews were conducted once a month with Shuitao. All discussions in the development of IHT cases were recorded, Shuitao’s teaching and micro-teaching were videotaped, and the reflection notes, journals, and summary reports written by Shuitao were collected.

After completing the teacher professional development program, Shuitao participated in a semi-structured three-hour interview. The objectives of this interview were twofold: to reassess her self-efficacy and to explore the relationship between her self-efficacy changes and each stage of the teacher professional development program.

Interview data, discussions, reflection notes, journals, summary reports and videos, and analysis records were archived and transcribed before, during, and after the teacher professional development program.

In this study, we primarily utilized data from seven interviews: one conducted before the teacher professional development program, five conducted after each stage of the program, and one conducted upon completion of the program. Additionally, we reviewed Shuitao’s five reflective notes, which were written after each stage, as well as her final summary report that encompassed the entire teacher professional development program.

Merriam’s ( 1998 ) approach to coding data and inductive approach to retrieving possible concepts and themes were employed using a seven-stage method. Considering theoretical underpinnings in qualitative research is common when interpreting data (Strauss and Corbin 1990 ). First, a list based on our conceptual framework of teacher self-efficacy (see Table 1 ) was developed. The list included two codes (i.e., SE-IHT-IP and SE-IHT-SO). Second, all data were sorted chronologically, read and reread to be better understood. Third, texts were coded into multi-colored highlighting and comment balloons. Fourth, the data for groups of meanings, themes, and behaviors were examined. How these groups were connected within the conceptual framework of teacher self-efficacy was confirmed. Fifth, after comparing, confirming, and modifying, the selective codes were extracted and mapped onto the two categories according to the conceptual framework of teacher self-efficacy. Accordingly, changes in SE-IHT-IP and SE-IHT-SO at the five stages of the teacher professional development program were identified, respectively, and then the preliminary findings came (Strauss and Corbin 1990 ). In reality, in Shuitao’s narratives, SE-IHT-IP and SE-IHT-SO were frequently intertwined. Through our coding process, we differentiated between SE-IHT-IP and SE-IHT-SO, enabling us to obtain a more distinct understanding of how these two aspects of teacher self-efficacy evolved over time. This helped us address the two research questions effectively.

Reliability and validity

Two researchers independently analyzed the data to establish inter-rater reliability. The inter-rater reliability was established as kappa = 0.959. Stake ( 1995 ) suggested that the most critical assertions in a study require the greatest effort toward confirmation. In this study, three methods served this purpose and helped ensure the validity of the findings. The first way to substantiate the statement about the changes in self-efficacy was by revisiting each transcript to confirm whether the participant explicitly acknowledged the changes (Yin 2003 ). Such a check was repeated in the analysis of this study. The second way to confirm patterns in the data was by examining whether Shuitao’s statements were replicated in separate interviews (Morris and Usher 2011 ). The third approach involved presenting the preliminary conclusions to Shuitao and affording her the opportunity to provide feedback on the data and conclusions. This step aimed to ascertain whether we accurately grasped the true intentions of her statements and whether our subjective interpretations inadvertently influenced our analysis of her statements. Additionally, data from diverse sources underwent analysis by at least two researchers, with all researchers reaching consensus on each finding.

As each stage of our teacher professional development programs spanned a minimum of three months, numerous documented statements regarding the enhancement of Shuitao’s self-efficacy regarding IHT were recorded. Notably, what we present here offers only a concise overview of findings derived from our qualitative analysis. The changes in Shuitao’s SE-IHT-IP and SE-IHT-SO are organized chronologically, delineating the period before and during the teacher professional development program.

Before the teacher professional development program: “I have no confidence in IHT”

Before the teacher professional development program, Shuitao frequently expressed her lack of confidence in IHT. On the one hand, Shuitao expressed considerable apprehension about her individual performance in IHT. “How can I design and implement IHT lesson plans? I do not know anything [about it]…” With a sense of doubt, confusion and anxiety, Shuitao voiced her lack of confidence in her ability to design and implement an IHT case that would meet the requirements of the curriculum standards. Regarding the reasons for her lack of confidence, Shuitao attributed it to her insufficient theoretical knowledge and practical experience in IHT:

I do not know the basic approaches to IHT that I could follow… it is very difficult for me to find suitable historical materials… I am very confused about how to organize [historical] materials logically around the teaching goals and contents… [Furthermore,] I am [a] novice, [and] I have no IHT experience.

On the other hand, Shuitao articulated very low confidence in the efficacy of her IHT on student outcomes:

I think my IHT will have a limited impact on student outcomes… I do not know any specific effects [of history] other than making students interested in mathematics… In fact, I always think it is difficult for [my] students to understand the history… If students cannot understand [the history], will they feel bored?

This statement suggests that Shuitao did not fully grasp the significance of IHT. In fact, she knew little about the educational significance of history for students, and she harbored no belief that her IHT approach could positively impact students. In sum, her SE-IHT-SO was very low.

After stage 1: “I can do well in the first step of IHT”

After Stage 1, Shuitao indicated a slight improvement in her confidence in IHT. She attributed this improvement to her acquisition of theoretical knowledge in IHT, the approaches for selecting history-related materials, and an understanding of the educational value of history.

One of Shuitao’s primary concerns about implementing IHT before the teacher professional development program was the challenge of sourcing suitable history-related materials. However, after Stage 1, Shuitao explicitly affirmed her capability in this aspect. She shared her experience of organizing history-related materials related to logarithms as an example.

Recognizing the significance of suitable history-related materials in effective IHT implementation, Shuitao acknowledged that conducting literature studies significantly contributed to enhancing her confidence in undertaking this initial step. Furthermore, she expressed increased confidence in designing IHT lesson plans by utilizing history-related materials aligned with teaching objectives derived from the curriculum standards. In other words, her SE-IHT-IP was enhanced. She said:

After experiencing multiple discussions, I gradually know more about what kinds of materials are essential and should be emphasized, what kinds of materials should be adapted, and what kinds of materials should be omitted in the classroom instructions… I have a little confidence to implement IHT that could meet the requirements [of the curriculum standards] since now I can complete the critical first step [of IHT] well…

However, despite the improvement in her confidence in IHT following Stage 1, Shuitao also expressed some concerns. She articulated uncertainty regarding her performance in the subsequent stages of the teacher professional development program. Consequently, her confidence in IHT experienced only a modest increase.

After stage 2: “I participate in the development of IHT cases, and my confidence is increased a little bit more”

Following Stage 2, Shuitao reported further increased confidence in IHT. She attributed this growth to two main factors. Firstly, she successfully developed several instructional designs for IHT through collaboration with in-service teachers. These collaborative experiences enabled her to gain a deeper understanding of IHT approaches and enhance her pedagogical content knowledge in this area, consequently bolstering her confidence in her ability to perform effectively. Secondly, Shuitao observed the tangible impact of IHT cases on students in real classroom settings, which reinforced her belief in the efficacy of IHT. These experiences instilled in her a greater sense of confidence in her capacity to positively influence her students through her implementation of IHT. Shuitao remarked that she gradually understood how to integrate suitable history-related materials into her instructional designs (e.g., employ a genetic approach Footnote 10 ), considering it as the second important step of IHT. She shared her experience of developing IHT instructional design on the concept of logarithms. After creating several iterations of IHT instructional designs, Shuitao emphasized that her confidence in SE-IHT-IP has strengthened. She expressed belief in her ability to apply these approaches to IHT, as well as the pedagogical content knowledge of IHT, acquired through practical experience, in her future teaching endeavors. The following is an excerpt from the interview:

I learned some effective knowledge, skills, techniques and approaches [to IHT]… By employing these approaches, I thought I could [and] I had the confidence to integrate the history into instructional designs very well… For instance, [inspired] by the genetic approach, we designed a series of questions and tasks based on the history of logarithms. The introduction of the new concept of logarithms became very natural, and it perfectly met the requirements of our curriculum standards, [which] asked students to understand the necessity of learning the concept of logarithms…

Shuitao actively observed the classroom teaching conducted by her cooperating in-service teacher. She helped her cooperating in-service teacher in collecting and analyzing students’ feedback. Subsequently, discussions ensued on how to improve the instructional designs based on this feedback. The refined IHT instructional designs were subsequently re-implemented by the in-service teacher. After three rounds of developing IHT cases, Shuitao became increasingly convinced of the significance and efficacy of integrating history into teaching practices, as evidenced by the following excerpt:

The impacts of IHT on students are visible… For instance, more than 93% of the students mentioned in the open-ended questionnaires that they became more interested in mathematics because of the [historical] story of Napier… For another example, according to the results of our surveys, more than 75% of the students stated that they knew log a ( M  +  N ) = log a M  × log a N was wrong because of history… I have a little bit more confidence in the effects of my IHT on students.

This excerpt highlights that Shuitao’s SE-IHT-SO was enhanced. She attributed this enhancement to her realization of the compelling nature of history and her belief in her ability to effectively leverage its power to positively influence her students’ cognitive and emotional development. This also underscores the importance of reinforcing pre-service teachers’ awareness of the significance of history. Nonetheless, Shuiato elucidated that she still retained concerns regarding the effectiveness of her IHT implementation. Her following statement shed light on why her self-efficacy only experienced a marginal increase in this stage:

Knowing how to do it successfully and doing it successfully in practice are two totally different things… I can develop IHT instructional designs well, but I have no idea whether I can implement them well and whether I can introduce the history professionally in practice… My cooperation in-service teacher has a long history of teaching mathematics and gains rich experience in educational practices… If I cannot acquire some required teaching skills and capabilities, I still cannot influence my students powerfully.

After stage 3: “Practice makes perfect, and my SE-IHT-IP is steadily enhanced after a hit”

After successfully developing IHT instructional designs, the next critical step was the implementation of these designs. Drawing from her observations of her cooperating in-service teachers’ IHT implementations and discussions with other pre-service teachers, Shuitao developed her own IHT lesson plans. In Stage 3, she conducted simulated teaching sessions and evaluated her teaching performance ten times Footnote 11 . Shuitao claimed that her SE-IHT-IP steadily improved over the course of these sessions. According to Shuitao, two main processes in Stage 3 facilitated this steady enhancement of SE-IHT-IP.

On the one hand, through the repeated implementation of simulated teaching sessions, Shuitao’s teaching proficiency and fluency markedly improved. Shuitao first described the importance of teaching proficiency and fluency:

Since the detailed history is not included in our curriculum standards and textbooks, if I use my historical materials in class, I have to teach more contents than traditional teachers. Therefore, I have to teach proficiently so that teaching pace becomes a little faster than usual… I have to teach fluently so as to use each minute efficiently in my class. Otherwise, I cannot complete the teaching tasks required [by curriculum standards].

As Shuitao said, at the beginning of Stage 3, her self-efficacy even decreased because she lacked teaching proficiency and fluency and was unable to complete the required teaching tasks:

In the first few times of simulated teaching, I always needed to think for a second about what I should say next when I finish one sentence. I also felt very nervous when I stood in the front of the classrooms. This made my narration of the historical story between Briggs and Napier not fluent at all. I paused many times to look for some hints on my notes… All these made me unable to complete the required teaching tasks… My [teaching] confidence took a hit.

Shuitao quoted the proverb, “practice makes perfect”, and she emphasized that it was repeated practice that improved her teaching proficiency and fluency:

I thought I had no other choice but to practice IHT repeatedly… [At the end of Stage 3,] I could naturally remember most words that I should say when teaching the topics that I selected… My teaching proficiency and fluency was improved through my repeated review of my instructional designs and implementation of IHT in the micro-classrooms… With the improvement [of my teaching proficiency and fluency], I could complete the teaching tasks, and my confidence was increased as well.

In addition, Shuitao also mentioned that through this kind of self-exploration in simulated teaching practice, her teaching skills and capabilities (e.g., blackboard writing, abilities of language organization abilities, etc.) improved. This process was of great help to her enhancement of SE-IHT-IP.

On the other hand, Shuitao’s simulated teaching underwent assessment by herself, with mentors, in-service teachers and fellow pre-service teachers. This comprehensive evaluation process played a pivotal role in enhancing her individual performance and self-efficacy. Reflecting on this aspect, Shuitao articulated the following sentiments in one of her reflection reports:

By watching the videos, conducting self-assessment, and collecting feedback from others, I can understand what I should improve or emphasize in my teaching. [Then,] I think my IHT can better meet the requirements [of curriculum standards]… I think my teaching performance is getting better and better.

After stage 4: “My micro-courses influenced students positively, and my SE-IHT-SO is steadily enhanced”

In Stage 4, Shuitao commenced by creating 5-min micro-course videos. Subsequently, she played these videos in her cooperating in-service teachers’ authentic classroom settings and collected student feedback. This micro-course was played at the end of her cooperating in-service teachers’ lesson Footnote 12 . Shuitao wrote in her reflections that this micro-course of logarithms helped students better understand the nature of mathematics:

According to the results of our surveys, many students stated that they knew the development and evolution of the concept of logarithms is a long process and many mathematicians from different countries have contributed to the development of the concept of logarithms… This indicated that my micro-course helped students better understand the nature of mathematics… My micro-course about the history informed students that mathematics is an evolving and human subject and helped them understand the dynamic development of the [mathematics] concept…

Meanwhile, Shuitao’s micro-course positively influenced some students’ beliefs towards mathematics. As evident from the quote below, integrating historical context into mathematics teaching transformed students’ perception of the subject, boosting Shuitao’s confidence too.

Some students’ responses were very exciting… [O]ne [typical] response stated, he always regarded mathematics as abstract, boring, and dreadful subject; but after seeing the photos of mathematicians and great men and learning the development of the concept of logarithms through the micro-course, he found mathematics could be interesting. He wanted to learn more the interesting history… Students’ such changes made me confident.

Furthermore, during post-class interviews, several students expressed their recognition of the significance of the logarithms concept to Shuitao, attributing this realization to the insights provided by prominent figures in the micro-courses. They also conveyed their intention to exert greater effort in mastering the subject matter. This feedback made Shuitao believe that her IHT had the potential to positively influence students’ attitudes towards learning mathematics.

In summary, Stage 4 marked Shuitao’s first opportunity to directly impact students through her IHT in authentic classroom settings. Despite implementing only brief 5-min micro-courses integrating history during each session, the effectiveness of her short IHT implementation was validated by student feedback. Shuitao unequivocally expressed that students actively engaged with her micro-courses and that these sessions positively influenced them, including attitudes and motivation toward mathematics learning, understanding of mathematics concepts, and beliefs regarding mathematics. These collective factors contributed to a steady enhancement of her confidence in SE-IHT-SO.

After stage 5: “My overall self-efficacy is greatly enhanced”

Following Stage 5, Shuitao reported a significant increase in her overall confidence in IHT, attributing it to gaining mastery through successful implementations of IHT in real classroom settings. On the one hand, Shuitao successfully designed and executed her IHT lesson plans, consistently achieving the teaching objectives mandated by curriculum standards. This significantly enhanced her SE-IHT-IP. On the other hand, as Shuitao’s IHT implementation directly influenced her students, her confidence in SE-IHT-SO experienced considerable improvement.

According to Bandura ( 1997 ), mastery experience is the most powerful source of self-efficacy. Shuitao’s statements confirmed this. As she claimed, her enhanced SE-IHT-IP in Stage 5 mainly came from the experience of successful implementations of IHT in real classrooms:

[Before the teacher professional development program,] I had no idea about implementing IHT… Now, I successfully implemented IHT in senior high school [classrooms] many times… I can complete the teaching tasks and even better completed the teaching objectives required [by the curriculum standards]… The successful experience greatly enhances my confidence to perform well in my future implementation of IHT… Yeah, I think the successful teaching practice experience is the strongest booster of my confidence.

At the end of stage 5, Shuitao’s mentors and in-service teachers gave her a high evaluation. For instance, after Shuitao’s IHT implementation of the concept of logarithms, all mentors and in-service teachers consistently provided feedback that her IHT teaching illustrated the necessity of learning the concept of logarithms and met the requirements of the curriculum standards very well. This kind of verbal persuasion (Bandura 1997 ) enhanced her SE-IHT-IP.

Similarly, Shuitao’s successful experience of influencing students positively through IHT, as one kind of mastery experience, powerfully enhanced her SE-IHT-SO. She described her changes in SE-IHT-SO as follows:

I could not imagine my IHT could be so influential [before]… But now, my IHT implementation directly influenced students in so many aspects… When I witnessed students’ real changes in various cognitive and affective aspects, my confidence was greatly improved.

Shuitao described the influence of her IHT implementation of the concept of logarithms on her students. The depiction is grounded in the outcomes of surveys conducted by Shuitao following her implementation. Shuitao asserted that these results filled her with excitement and confidence regarding her future implementation of IHT.

In summary, following Stage 5 of the teacher professional development program, Shuitao experienced a notable enhancement in her overall self-efficacy, primarily attributed to her successful practical experience in authentic classroom settings during this stage.

A primary objective of our teacher professional development programs is to equip pre-service teachers with the skills and confidence needed to effectively implement IAT. Our findings show that one teacher professional development program, significantly augmented a participant’s TSE-IHT across two dimensions: individual performance and student outcomes. Considering the pressing need to provide STEAM teachers with effective professional training (e.g., Boice et al. 2021 ; Duong et al. 2024 ; Herro et al. 2019 ; Jacques et al. 2020 ; Park and Cho 2022 ; Perignat and Katz-Buonincontro 2019 ), the proposed five-stage framework holds significant promise in both theoretical and practical realms. Furthermore, this study offers a viable solution to address the prevalent issue of low levels of teacher self-efficacy in interdisciplinary teaching, including IAT, which is critical in STEAM education (Zhou et al. 2023 ). This study holds the potential to make unique contributions to the existing body of literature on teacher self-efficacy, teacher professional learning models and the design of teacher professional development programs of IAT.

Firstly, this study enhances our understanding of the development of teacher self-efficacy. Our findings further confirm the complexity of the development of teacher self-efficacy. On the one hand, the observed enhancement of the participant’s teacher self-efficacy did not occur swiftly but unfolded gradually through a protracted, incremental process. Moreover, it is noteworthy that the participant’s self-efficacy exhibited fluctuations, underscoring that the augmentation of teacher self-efficacy is neither straightforward nor linear. On the other hand, the study elucidated that the augmentation of teacher self-efficacy constitutes an intricate, multi-level system that interacts with teacher knowledge, skills, and other beliefs. This finding resonates with prior research on teacher self-efficacy (Morris et al. 2017 ; Xenofontos and Andrews 2020 ). For example, our study revealed that Shuitao’s enhancement of SE-IHT-SO may always be interwoven with her continuous comprehension of the significance of the A&H in classroom settings. Similarly, the participant progressively acknowledged the educational value of A&H in classroom contexts in tandem with the stepwise enhancement of SE-IHT-SO. Factors such as the participant’s pedagogical content knowledge of IHT, instructional design, and teaching skills were also identified as pivotal components of SE-IHT-IP. This finding corroborates Morris and Usher ( 2011 ) assertion that sustained improvements in self-efficacy stem from developing teachers’ skills and knowledge. With the bolstering of SE-IHT-IP, the participant’s related teaching skills and content knowledge also exhibited improvement.

Methodologically, many researchers advocate for qualitative investigations into self-efficacy (e.g., Philippou and Pantziara 2015; Klassen et al. 2011 ; Wyatt 2015 ; Xenofontos and Andrews 2020 ). While acknowledging limitations in sample scope and the generalizability of the findings, this study offers a longitudinal perspective on the stage-by-stage development of teacher self-efficacy and its interactions with different factors (i.e., teacher knowledge, skills, and beliefs), often ignored by quantitative studies. Considering that studies of self-efficacy have been predominantly quantitative, typically drawing on survey techniques and pre-determined scales (Xenofontos and Andrews, 2020 ; Zhou et al. 2023 ), this study highlights the need for greater attention to qualitative studies so that more cultural, situational and contextual factors in the development of self-efficacy can be captured.

Our study provides valuable practical implications for enhancing pre-service teachers’ self-efficacy. We conceptualize teacher self-efficacy in two primary dimensions: individual performance and student outcomes. On the one hand, pre-service teachers can enhance their teaching qualities, boosting their self-efficacy in individual performance. The adage “practice makes perfect” underscores the necessity of ample teaching practice opportunities for pre-service teachers who lack prior teaching experience. Engaging in consistent and reflective practice helps them develop confidence in their teaching qualities. On the other hand, pre-service teachers should focus on positive feedback from their students, reinforcing their self-efficacy in individual performance. Positive student feedback serves as an affirmation of their teaching effectiveness and encourages continuous improvement. Furthermore, our findings highlight the significance of mentors’ and peers’ positive feedback as critical sources of teacher self-efficacy. Mentors and peers play a pivotal role in the professional growth of pre-service teachers by actively encouraging them and recognizing their teaching achievements. Constructive feedback from experienced mentors and supportive peers fosters a collaborative learning environment and bolsters the self-confidence of pre-service teachers. Additionally, our research indicates that pre-service teachers’ self-efficacy may fluctuate. Therefore, mentors should be prepared to help pre-service teachers manage teaching challenges and setbacks, and alleviate any teaching-related anxiety. Mentors can help pre-service teachers build resilience and maintain a positive outlook on their teaching journey through emotional support and guidance. Moreover, a strong correlation exists between teacher self-efficacy and teacher knowledge and skills. Enhancing pre-service teachers’ knowledge base and instructional skills is crucial for bolstering their overall self-efficacy.

Secondly, this study also responds to the appeal to understand teachers’ professional learning from a holistic perspective and interrelate teachers’ professional learning process with student outcome variables (Sancar et al. 2021 ), and thus contributes to the understanding of the complexity of STEAM teachers’ professional learning. On the one hand, we have confirmed Cai et al.’s ( 2020 ) teacher professional learning model in a new context, namely STEAM teacher education. Throughout the teacher professional development program, the pre-service teacher, Shuitao, demonstrated an augmentation in her knowledge, encompassing both content knowledge and pedagogical understanding concerning IHT. Moreover, her beliefs regarding IHT transformed as a result of her engagement in teacher learning across the five stages. This facilitated her in executing effective IHT teaching and improving her students’ outcomes. On the other hand, notably, in our studies (including this current study and some follow-up studies), student feedback is a pivotal tool to assist teachers in discerning the impact they are effectuating. This enables pre-service teachers to grasp the actual efficacy of their teaching efforts and subsequently contributes significantly to the augmentation of their self-efficacy. Such steps have seldom been conducted in prior studies (e.g., Cai et al. 2020 ), where student outcomes are often perceived solely as the results of teachers’ instruction rather than sources informing teacher beliefs. Additionally, this study has validated both the interaction between teaching performance and teacher beliefs and between teacher knowledge and teacher beliefs. These aspects were overlooked in Cai et al.’s ( 2020 ) model. More importantly, while Clarke and Hollingsworth’s ( 2002 ) Interconnected Model of Professional Growth illustrates the connections between the domain of consequence and the personal domain, as well as between the personal domain and the domain of practice, it does not adequately clarify the complex relationships among the factors within the personal domain (e.g., the interaction between teacher knowledge and teacher beliefs). Therefore, our study also supplements Clarke and Hollingsworth’s ( 2002 ) model by addressing these intricacies. Based on our findings, an updated model of teacher professional learning has been proposed, as shown in Fig. 3 . This expanded model indicates that teacher learning should be an ongoing and sustainable process, with the enhancement of student learning not marking the conclusion of teacher learning, but rather serving as the catalyst for a new phase of learning. In this sense, we advocate for further research to investigate the tangible impacts of teacher professional development programs on students and how those impacts stimulate subsequent cycles of teacher learning.

Note: Paths in blue were proposed by Cai et al. ( 2020 ), and paths in yellow are proposed and verified in this study.

Thirdly, in light of the updated model of teacher professional learning (see Fig. 3 ), this study provides insights into the design of teacher professional development programs of IAT. According to Huang et al. ( 2022 ), to date, very few studies have set goals to “develop a comprehensive understanding of effective designs” for STEM (or STEAM) teacher professional development programs (p. 15). To fill this gap, this study proposes a novel and effective five-stage framework for teacher professional development programs of IAT. This framework provides a possible and feasible solution to the challenges of STEAM teacher professional development programs’ design and planning, and teachers’ IAT practice (Boice et al. 2021 ; Herro et al. 2019 ; Jacques et al. 2020 ; Park and Cho 2022 ; Perignat and Katz-Buonincontro 2019 ).

Specifically, our five-stage framework incorporates at least six important features. Firstly, teacher professional development programs should focus on specific STEAM content. Given the expansive nature of STEAM, teacher professional development programs cannot feasibly encompass all facets of its contents. Consistent with recommendations by Cai et al. ( 2020 ), Desimone et al. ( 2002 ) and Garet et al. ( 2001 ), an effective teacher professional development program should prioritize content focus. Our five-stage framework is centered on IAT. Throughout an 18-month duration, each pre-service teacher is limited to selecting one subcomponent of A&H, such as history, for integration into their subject teaching (i.e., mathematics teaching, technology teaching or science teaching) within one teacher professional development program. Secondly, in response to the appeals that teacher professional development programs should shift from emphasizing teaching and instruction to emphasizing student learning (Cai et al. 2020 ; Calabrese et al. 2024 ; Hwang et al. 2024 ; Marco and Palatnik 2024 ; Örnek and Soylu 2021 ), our framework requires pre-service teachers to pay close attention to the effects of IAT on student learning outcomes, and use students’ feedback as the basis of improving their instruction. Thirdly, prior studies found that teacher education with a preference for theory led to pre-service teachers’ dissatisfaction with the quality of teacher professional development program and hindered the development of pre-service teachers’ teaching skills and teaching beliefs, which also widened the gap between theory and practice (Hennissen et al. 2017 ; Ord and Nuttall 2016 ). In this regard, our five-stage framework connects theory and teaching practice closely. In particular, pre-service teachers can experience the values of IAT not only through theoretical learning but also through diverse teaching practices. Fourthly, we build a teacher community of practice tailored for pre-service teachers. Additionally, we aim to encourage greater participation of in-service teachers in such teacher professional development programs designed for pre-service educators in STEAM teacher education. By engaging in such programs, in-service teachers can offer valuable teaching opportunities for pre-service educators and contribute their insights and experiences from teaching practice. Importantly, pre-service teachers stand to gain from the in-service teachers’ familiarity with textbooks, subject matter expertise, and better understanding of student dynamics. Fifthly, our five-stage framework lasts for an extended period, spanning 18 months. This duration ensures that pre-service teachers engage in a sustained and comprehensive learning journey. Lastly, our framework facilitates a practical understanding of “integration” by offering detailed, sequential instructions for blending two disciplines in teaching. For example, our teacher professional development programs prioritize systematic learning of pedagogical theories and simulated teaching experiences before pre-service teachers embark on real STEAM teaching endeavors. This approach is designed to mitigate the risk of unsuccessful experiences during initial teaching efforts, thereby safeguarding pre-service teachers’ teacher self-efficacy. Considering the complexity of “integration” in interdisciplinary teaching practices, including IAT (Han et al. 2022 ; Ryu et al. 2019 ), we believe detailed stage-by-stage and step-by-step instructions are crucial components of relevant pre-service teacher professional development programs. Notably, this aspect, emphasizing structural instructional guidance, has not been explicitly addressed in prior research (e.g., Cai et al. 2020 ). Figure 4 illustrates the six important features outlined in this study, encompassing both established elements and the novel addition proposed herein, describing an effective teacher professional development program.

Note: STEAM refers to science, technology, engineering, arts and humanities, and mathematics.

The successful implementation of this framework is also related to the Chinese teacher education system and cultural background. For instance, the Chinese government has promoted many university-school collaboration initiatives, encouraging in-service teachers to provide guidance and practical opportunities for pre-service teachers (Lu et al. 2019 ). Influenced by Confucian values emphasizing altruism, many experienced in-service teachers in China are eager to assist pre-service teachers, helping them better realize their teaching career aspirations. It is reported that experienced in-service teachers in China show significantly higher motivation than their international peers when mentoring pre-service teachers (Lu et al. 2019 ). Therefore, for the successful implementation of this framework in other countries, it is crucial for universities to forge close collaborative relationships with K-12 schools and actively involve K-12 teachers in pre-service teacher education.

Notably, approximately 5% of our participants dropped out midway as they found that the IAT practice was too challenging or felt overwhelmed by the number of required tasks in the program. Consequently, we are exploring options to potentially simplify this framework in future iterations.

Without minimizing the limitations of this study, it is important to recognize that a qualitative longitudinal case study can be a useful means of shedding light on the development of a pre-service STEAM teacher’s self-efficacy. However, this methodology did not allow for a pre-post or a quasi-experimental design, and the effectiveness of our five-stage framework could not be confirmed quantitatively. In the future, conducting more experimental or design-based studies could further validate the effectiveness of our framework and broaden our findings. Furthermore, future studies should incorporate triangulation methods and utilize multiple data sources to enhance the reliability and validity of the findings. Meanwhile, owing to space limitations, we could only report the changes in Shuitao’s SE-IHT-IP and SE-IHT-SO here, and we could not describe the teacher self-efficacy of other participants regarding IAT. While nearly all of the pre-service teachers experienced an improvement in their teacher self-efficacy concerning IAT upon participating in our teacher professional development programs, the processes of their change were not entirely uniform. We will need to report the specific findings of these variations in the future. Further studies are also needed to explore the factors contributing to these variations. Moreover, following this study, we are implementing more teacher professional development programs of IAT. Future studies can explore the impact of this framework on additional aspects of pre-service STEAM teachers’ professional development. This will help gain a more comprehensive understanding of its effectiveness and potential areas for further improvement. Additionally, our five-stage framework was initially developed and implemented within the Chinese teacher education system. Future research should investigate how this framework can be adapted in other educational systems and cultural contexts.

The impetus behind this study stems from the burgeoning discourse advocating for the integration of A&H disciplines into STEM education on a global scale (e.g., Land 2020 ; Park and Cho 2022 ; Uştu et al. 2021 ; Vaziri and Bradburn 2021 ). Concurrently, there exists a pervasive concern regarding the challenges teachers face in implementing STEAM approaches, particularly in the context of IAT practices (e.g., Boice et al. 2021 ; Herro et al. 2019 ; Jacques et al. 2020 ; Park and Cho 2022 ; Perignat and Katz-Buonincontro 2019 ). To tackle this challenge, we first proposed a five-stage framework designed for teacher professional development programs of IAT. Then, utilizing this innovative framework, we implemented a series of teacher professional development programs. Drawing from the recommendations of Bray-Clark and Bates ( 2003 ), Kelley et al. ( 2020 ) and Zhou et al. ( 2023 ), we have selected teacher self-efficacy as a key metric to examine the effectiveness of the five-stage framework. Through a qualitative longitudinal case study, we scrutinized the influence of a specific teacher professional development program on the self-efficacy of a single pre-service teacher over an 18-month period. Our findings revealed a notable enhancement in teacher self-efficacy across both individual performance and student outcomes. The observed enhancement of the participant’s teacher self-efficacy did not occur swiftly but unfolded gradually through a prolonged, incremental process. Building on our findings, an updated model of teacher learning has been proposed. The updated model illustrates that teacher learning should be viewed as a continuous and sustainable process, wherein teaching performance, teacher beliefs, and teacher knowledge dynamically interact with one another. The updated model also confirms that teacher learning is inherently intertwined with student learning in STEAM education. Furthermore, this study also summarizes effective design features of STEAM teacher professional development programs.

Data availability

The datasets generated and/or analyzed during this study are not publicly available due to general data protection regulations, but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

In their review article, Morris et al. ( 2017 ) equated “teaching self-efficacy” and “teacher self-efficacy” as synonymous concepts. This perspective is also adopted in this study.

An effective teacher professional development program should have specific, focused, and clear content instead of broad and scattered ones. Therefore, each pre-service teacher can only choose to integrate one subcomponent of A&H into their teaching in one teacher professional development program. For instance, Shuitao, a mathematics pre-service teacher, participated in one teacher professional development program focused on integrating history into mathematics teaching. However, she did not explore the integration of other subcomponents of A&H into her teaching during her graduate studies.

In the micro-classrooms, multi-angle, and multi-point high-definition video recorders are set up to record the teaching process.

In micro-teaching, mentors, in-service teachers, and other fellow pre-service teachers take on the roles of students.

In China, teachers can video record one section of a lesson and play them in formal classes. This is a practice known as a micro-course. For instance, in one teacher professional development program of integrating history into mathematics teaching, micro-courses encompass various mathematics concepts, methods, ideas, history-related material and related topics. Typically, teachers use these micro-courses to broaden students’ views, foster inquiry-based learning, and cultivate critical thinking skills. Such initiatives play an important role in improving teaching quality.

Many university-school collaboration initiatives in China focus on pre-service teachers’ practicum experiences (Lu et al. 2019 ). Our teacher professional development program is also supported by many K-12 schools in Shanghai. Personal information in videos is strictly protected.

In China, students are not required to pursue a graduate major that matches their undergraduate major. Most participants in our teacher professional development programs did not pursue undergraduate degrees in education-related fields.

Shuitao’s university reserves Wednesday afternoons for students to engage in various programs or clubs, as classes are not scheduled during this time. Similarly, our teacher professional development program activities are planned for Wednesday afternoons to avoid overlapping with participants’ other coursework commitments.

History is one of the most important components of A&H (Park and Cho 2022 ).

To learn more about genetic approach (i.e., genetic principle), see Jankvist ( 2009 ).

For the assessment process, see Fig. 2 .

Shuitao’s cooperating in-service teacher taught the concept of logarithms in Stage 2. In Stage 4, the teaching objective of her cooperating in-service teacher’s review lesson was to help students review the concept of logarithms to prepare students for the final exam.

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Acknowledgements

This research is funded by 2021 National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.62177042), 2024 Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. Y24F020039), and 2024 Zhejiang Educational Science Planning Project (Grant No. 2024SCG247).

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Xuesong Zhai

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College of Education, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China

Haozhe Jiang & Xuesong Zhai

School of Engineering and Technology, CML‑NET & CREATE Research Centres, Central Queensland University, North Rockhampton, QLD, Australia

Ritesh Chugh

Hangzhou International Urbanology Research Center & Zhejiang Urban Governance Studies Center, Hangzhou, China

Department of Teacher Education, Nicholls State University, Thibodaux, LA, USA

School of Mathematical Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China

Xiaoqin Wang

College of Teacher Education, Faculty of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China

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Conceptualization - Haozhe Jiang; methodology - Haozhe Jiang; software - Xuesong Zhai; formal analysis - Haozhe Jiang & Ke Wang; investigation - Haozhe Jiang; resources - Haozhe Jiang, Xuesong Zhai & Xiaoqin Wang; data curation - Haozhe Jiang & Ke Wang; writing—original draft preparation - Haozhe Jiang & Ritesh Chugh; writing—review and editing - Ritesh Chugh & Ke Wang; visualization - Haozhe Jiang, Ke Wang & Xiaoqin Wang; supervision - Xuesong Zhai & Xiaoqin Wang; project administration - Xuesong Zhai & Xiaoqin Wang; and funding acquisition - Xuesong Zhai & Xiaoqin Wang. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

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Jiang, H., Chugh, R., Zhai, X. et al. Longitudinal analysis of teacher self-efficacy evolution during a STEAM professional development program: a qualitative case study. Humanit Soc Sci Commun 11 , 1162 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-03655-5

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