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Democratic Backsliding and Authoritarian Resurgence in Latin America

Democracy is eroding “from the inside” across Latin America and beyond.

In some countries, popularly elected officials, typically presidents, are dismantling democracy through a series of incremental actions rather than coups. Domestic democratic actors and international donors need advice on how to identify and respond to democratic backsliding as it unfolds. This advice must stem from an understanding of how citizens in backsliding democracies perceive and support democratic institutions.

NORC convened a panel of academic experts to share research insights and recommendations.

On April 28, 2022, NORC at the University of Chicago, in collaboration with the Kellogg Institute for International Studies at the University of Notre Dame, convened an expert panel to present research and discuss recommendations with international development professionals. The panel featured professors Matthew Cleary from Syracuse University, Javier Corrales from Amherst College, and Mneesha Gellman from Emerson College. The panel was moderated by Aníbal Pérez-Liñán  from the University of Notre Dame.

To understand how democratic norms and attitudes in Latin America have changed in the past decade, NORC also employed cluster analysis techniques to study public opinion data from the LAPOP AmericasBarometer survey. We shared our analysis with political scientists from the region, who interpreted findings in the context of political, economic, and social developments in their countries in case study reports.

The panelists provided insights and recommendations for countering democratic backsliding and promoting democratic resilience.

The panelists defined backsliding and explained how the process unfolds through the experiences of Venezuela, El Salvador, and Mexico. Based on those experiences, the group warned against ineffective tactics and discussed strategies that may succeed in reversing backsliding.

• Unsuccessful responses: election boycotts, inflammatory labeling, and radicalization
• Recommended responses: delay institutional capture, leverage legal tactics, support corruption probes, strengthen independent voices, and invest in “vaccines”

A  two-pager  presents the main takeaways and a  brief  summarizes the full discussion and provides additional information.

Meanwhile, NORC’s analysis of trends in democratic norms and attitudes found that though a plurality of citizens in the region express consistent support for democratic institutions, an increasingly large cluster of citizens supports anti-democratic actions, especially by presidents. More and more, citizen perceptions combine support for the broad concept of democracy with support for anti-democracy actions, like executives closing legislatures. Citizens’ support for political regimes are linked closely with performance, irrespective of regimes’ commitment to uphold democratic institutions. It is critical to build citizen commitment to the specific principles that underlie liberal democracy and link these to voting decisions. This may require communication initiatives to properly message democratic concepts; support for efforts to counter mis-, dis-, and malinformation; and efforts to promote accountability and reduce corruption.

In the Data & Findings section below, a separate two-pager presents the summary findings from NORC’s study of trends in democratic norms and attitudes. There is also a full regional summary report and twelve country case study reports.

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Data & Findings

Communications briefs.

• Democratic Backsliding and Authoritarian Resurgence in Latin America Summary of Findings from an Expert Roundtable (PDF)
• Erosión democrática y rebrote autoritario en América Latina - Nota (PDF)
• Democratic Backsliding and Authoritarian Resurgence in Latin America – Brief (PDF)
• Erosión Democrática y Rebrote Autoritario En América Latina – Reporte (PDF)

Research Reports

• Trends in Democratic Norms and Attitudes in Latin America - Brief of Findings (PDF)
• Trends in Democratic Norms and Attitudes in Latin America - Summary Report (PDF)

Case Studies

• Trends in Democratic Norms and Attitudes - Bolivia (PDF)
• Trends in Democratic Norms and Attitudes - Brazil (PDF)
• Trends in Democratic Norms and Attitudes - Colombia (PDF)
• Trends in Democratic Norms and Attitudes - Ecuador (PDF)
• Trends in Democratic Norms and Attitudes - El Salvador (PDF)
• Trends in Democratic Norms and Attitudes - Guatemala (PDF)
• Trends in Democratic Norms and Attitudes - Honduras (PDF)
• Trends in Democratic Norms and Attitudes - Mexico (PDF)
• Trends in Democratic Norms and Attitudes - Nicaragua (PDF)
• Trends in Democratic Norms and Attitudes - Panama (PDF)
• Trends in Democratic Norms and Attitudes - Paraguay (PDF)
• Trends in Democratic Norms and Attitudes - Peru (PDF)

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The rapidly deteriorating quality of democracy in Latin America

Subscribe to this week in foreign policy, daniel zovatto daniel zovatto former brookings expert, director for latin america and the caribbean - international institute for democracy and electoral assistance.

February 28, 2020

Democracy is facing deep challenges across Latin America today.

On February 16, for instance, municipal elections in the Dominican Republic were suspended due to the failure of electoral ballot machines in more than 80% of polling stations that used them. The failure sparked large protests around the country, where thousands took to the streets to demand explanations and to express their discontent with the Junta Central Electoral (JCE), the Caribbean nation’s electoral body. This has not only left the country in a deep political crisis, but has led citizens to lose trust in democratic institutions.

Another country facing a democratic crisis in the region is El Salvador. On February 9, thousands of Salvadorians gathered outside the country’s legislative assembly as the country faced its most significant constitutional crisis since signing a peace agreement to end the civil war in 1992. The crisis started when President Nayib Bukele called the country’s legislators to an emergency session to approve a $109 million loan for the third phase of his security plan, called the Territorial Control Plan. After legislators rejected the plan, the president called military officers into the chamber. The president of the assembly called the show of force an “ attempted coup ” that threatened the separation of powers in the country and disregarded core democratic institutions.

On January 5, the authoritarian regime of Nicólas Maduro in Venezuela orchestrated what opposition officials called a “parliamentary coup” against Juan Guaidó, with police forces blocking the opposition leader from entering the National Assembly to elect the president of the parliament. This clearly exposes the regime’s strategy to dismantle the last legitimate organ among the country’s constitutional powers.

Finally, there have been violent protests and social movements in Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Chile.

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These recent examples show that democracy in Latin America is facing a critical period, as a report from International IDEA — “ The Global State of Democracy 2019: Addressing the Ills, Reviving the Promise ” — details . The report examines the state of democracy globally, observing that while democracy continues to expand, its quality is rapidly deteriorating and threats to democracy are rising. It shows that democracy remains resilient, with a high level of citizen support, while emphasizing that most of the attacks on democracy are not external but internal.

Never in the last four decades has the future of democracy been as threatened as it is today. In general, the four main risks to democracy are: reduced space for civic action, weakened democratic checks and balances, high levels of inequality, and attacks on human rights. In Latin America, in particular, many of these challenges are acute, but overall the picture is mixed.

The state of democracy in Latin America

The research shows a regional outlook with bright spots and shadows, along with diversity among countries when it comes to the quality of democracy.

While some democracies, such as Uruguay and Costa Rica, are among the best in the world, others — for example, Brazil — have experienced democratic erosion in recent years. Haiti, Honduras, Guatemala, Paraguay, Bolivia, and the Dominican Republic, meanwhile, all present different degrees of democratic fragility. Nicaragua is experiencing a serious democratic backsliding, while Venezuela is suffering a total democratic breakdown. These two countries, together with Cuba, are the region’s three authoritarian regimes.

It’s important to identify both the positive trends in Latin American democracies and the main challenges they face.

The most notable positive aspects are:

• In the last 40 years, Latin America made the most significant gains worldwide, becoming the third most democratic region in the world, after North America and Europe.
• The vast majority of the democracies in the region have displayed notable resilience: Only 27% experienced any interruption in these last 40 years.
• Latin America has made major gains in the electoral sphere — indeed, elections are popularly accepted as the only legitimate means of coming to power — and the region has the highest levels of election participation in the world, with a regional average of 67%.
• While much remains to be done, it is the region with the highest percentage of women parliamentarians in the world, with a regional average of 27%. However,  there is currently no female elected Latin American president. In Bolivia, which went through a political crisis after the annulment of presidential elections, Jeanine Añez has been designated as the country’s interim president.

There is a long list of challenges as well, including:

• Four decades after the beginning of the third democratic wave, the region is showing signs of democratic fatigue. According to Latinobarómetro , overall support for democracy fell to 48%, the lowest level in recent years, while indifference between a democratic regime and an authoritarian one climbed from 16% to 28%. Dissatisfaction with democracy increased from 51% to 71% between 2009 and 2018.
• The crisis of representative democracy is worsening. Trust in the legislatures is at a mediocre 21%, whereas trust in political parties has plummeted to an anemic 13%.
• The region still has the highest levels of income inequality in the world: Of the 26 most unequal countries in the world, 15 (58%) are Latin American.
• The region is also in third place, after Africa and the Middle East, on corruption; it has the highest levels of crime and violence in the world; and despite numerous reforms, weak rule of law continues to be an Achilles’ heel of democracy in the region.
• Importantly, approval ratings for the governments have been falling significantly and steadily in the last decade. At the same time, there is a heightened citizen perception that the elites govern to benefit a privileged minority of society.

Overcast times in Latin America:  What should be done?

The year 2020 is expected to see overcast times in Latin America, with conditions equally or even more complex and volatile as in 2019. Political risk consultancy the Eurasia Group names social discontent in the region as one of the top 10 political risks in the world in 2020. Additionally, according to The Economist’s 2020 instability risk map, the most vulnerable countries are, in addition to Venezuela and Haiti, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Brazil, Honduras, Chile, Mexico, and Paraguay.

As it enters the new year and a new decade, therefore, Latin America is marked by “irritated democracies,” characterized by anemic economic growth, citizen frustration, social tensions, discontent with politics, and weak governance. There is significant fear that 2020 will be another challenging year for the governments of Latin America.

Social discontent and instability will continue. The middle class, dissatisfied with the status quo, feels vulnerable and is demanding more social spending by their governments. Such spending, in turn, reduces governments’ ability to implement the adjustment measures that the International Monetary Fund and private investors demand as a condition before delivering fresh loans and/or investments. Moreover, citizens have lost patience, are less tolerant of their governments, are more demanding of their own rights, and are hyper-connected via social networks.

As the International IDEA report stresses, we should “address the weaknesses of democracy and revive its promise” with a renewed agenda that lays the basis for a democracy of a new generation. Such a renovation must be aimed at improving democracy’s quality and resilience, as well as strengthening its institutions. It must seek to empower citizens, recover economic growth, rethink the development model, and adopt a new social contract. The agenda must make it possible to respond not only to current issues — including poverty, inequality, corruption, insecurity, and weak rule of law — but also the new challenges.

Lastly, the current situation of democratic discontent and social convulsion that Latin America is experiencing requires offering democratic solutions to the problems of democracy in order to avoid a dangerous escalation of strong populist rhetoric, which could end up aggravating the complex regional situation. It is not merely enough to have quality and resilient democracies. We must also strive to build a modern and strategic state, better governance, and political leadership committed to democratic values, transparency, a connection to the people, empathy, and the ability to govern the complex societies of the 21st century.

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In This Article Expand or collapse the "in this article" section Democratic Transitions in Latin America

Introduction, foundational works.

• Democracy and Democratization
• Explaining Transitions to Democracy
• Breakdown of Democracy
• The Role of Elites
• The Role of the Armed Forces
• Economic Issues and Democracy
• Electoral Politics
• Institutions and the Process of Democratization
• Social Movements and Citizenship
• Gender and Democratization in Latin America
• Indigenous Movements
• Authoritarian Legacies and the Challenge of Multiculturalism
• Consolidating Democracies in Latin America
• International Dimension of Latin American Democratization
• Comparative Studies
• Central America and the Caribbean

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• Brazilian Foreign Policy
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Democratic Transitions in Latin America by Reynaldo Yunuen Ortega Ortíz LAST REVIEWED: 29 November 2011 LAST MODIFIED: 29 November 2011 DOI: 10.1093/obo/9780199756223-0015

Since gaining their independence at the beginning of the 19th century, the Latin American states have tried to establish democratic regimes. However, most of these efforts failed during the 19th century, in which dictatorships and oligarchic rule were the norm in the region. In his useful classification of electoral regimes in Latin America, Peter Smith distinguishes among electoral democracies, electoral semi-democracies, oligarchic republicanism, and nondemocracies (see Smith 2005 , cited under Explaining Transitions to Democracy ). Between 1900 and 1930 there were only three electoral democracies that lasted between one and fourteen years: Argentina (1916–1929), Mexico (1911–1913), and Uruguay (1919–1933). Between 1930 and 1975 there were processes of democratization and de-democratization in the whole region. The Latin American cases are a central contradiction to modernization theory, which connected the emergence of democracy with certain economic and social background conditions, such as high per capita income, widespread literacy, and prevalent urban residence. We saw the demise of democratic regimes in the most affluent countries of Latin America: Argentina in 1955, Brazil in 1954 and then again in 1964, Chile in 1973, and Uruguay in 1973. The last twenty years of the 20th century, however. saw important changes in the democratization processes of the region. Most of the nineteen Latin American countries experienced processes of electoral democratization. The literature on democratization in Latin America has followed a tendency in political science to emphasize the role of elites and pacts. In a way, as Nancy Bermeo (see Bermeo 2003 , cited under Breakdown of Democracy ) and Adam Przeworski have argued, the group of the Woodrow Wilson Center (see O’Donnell, et al. 1986 , cited under Foundational Works ) was not only analyzing the democratization process, but wanted to “stop the killings.” The most robust structuralist theory, that of Barrington Moore, Jr., on the origins of democracy, was not that promising. The most recent works on democracy and democratization in Latin America are trying to analyze both structure and agency in the processes of democratization.

Mahoney 2003 distinguishes three major research programs on democracy; see Moore Jr. 1966 on structuralism, O’Donnell, et al. 1986 on bureaucratic authoritarianism, and Linz 1975 on leadership and voluntarism. Linked to that program, I would add Dahl 1971 . That fourth program is closest to the elitist school on democracy, but instead of emphasizing the problem of legitimacy, the scholars using that approach concentrate on procedural democracy, and recently, on rational choice and game theory. Bobbio 1987 and Tilly 2007 synthesize the most important debates around the concept of democracy, democratization, and de-democratization as historical processes. Rustow 1970 developed a strong critique of modernization theory ( Huntington 1991 ) and culturalist theories of democracy and proposed instead a genetic model of democracy.

Bobbio, Norberto. The Future of Democracy: A Defence of the Rules of the Game . Oxford: Polity, 1987.

In this book the political philosopher Norberto Bobbio analyzes the evolution of the concept of democracy and the agenda of democracy as a political system.

Dahl, Robert A. Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition . New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1971.

Addresses the question of what conditions increase or decrease the chances of democratizing hegemonic or nearly hegemonic regimes. Although it does not have a regional approach, it provides a typology of regimes, and most of the literature on Latin American transitions has used its insights to analyze the processes of regime change.

Huntington, Samuel P. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century . Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991.

Many scholars have observed that democracies tend to come in waves; Huntington argues that transitions to democracy usually come in waves and are followed by reversions. There are many factors that explain regime change, and therefore explanations vary.

Linz, Juan J. “Totalitarian and Authoritarian Regimes.” In Handbook of Political Science . Vol. 3. Edited by Nelson Polsby and Fred Greenstein, 175–373. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1975.

In this seminal article, Juan Linz developed his typology of different regimes. In particular, he describes the main characteristics of authoritarian regimes.

Mahoney, James. 2003. “Knowledge Accumulation in Comparative Historical Research: The Case of Democracy and Authoritarianism.” In Comparative Historical Analysis in the Social Sciences . Edited by James Mahoney and Dietrich Rueschmeyer, 131–174. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

This article summarizes the main research agendas dealing with democracy and democratization, based on comparative historical research.

Moore, Barrington, Jr. Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy: Lord and Peasant in the Making of the Modern World . Boston: Beacon, 1966.

This book is a classic. Using a structuralist perspective, it shows how different configurations of social coalitions (the peasantry, the landed upper classes, and the bourgeoisie) led to different outcomes: dictatorship or democracy.

O’Donnell, Guillermo, Philippe C. Schmitter, and Laurence Whitehead, eds. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Prospects for Democracy . 4 vols. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986.

This is a classic comparative study of the transitions in Latin America and southern Europe. It includes multiple essays with comparative and case studies of different countries that were part of the “third wave.” It emphasizes the role of elites and pacts in the process of transition from authoritarian rule.

Rustow, Dankwart. “Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model.” Comparative Politics 2.3 (1970): 337–363.

DOI: 10.2307/421307

Rustow develops a dynamic model to analyze the emergence of a democratic regime, criticizing the economic and cultural determinants of previous models.

Tilly, Charles. Democracy . New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007.

This book is concerned with the continual processes of democratization and de-democratization and tries to measure the changes in four dimensions: breadth, equality, protection, and mutually binding consultation.

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• 81.177.182.154

How Latin America’s Judges Are Defending Democracy

Diego a. zambrano, ludmilla martins da silva, rolando garcia miron, santiago p. rodriguez.

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Read the full essay here .

Ten years of debates over democratic backsliding have failed to produce many examples of independent institutions thwarting authoritarian attempts on democracy. Yet Latin American courts seem to be countering this larger trend. The three largest countries in the region—Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia—have produced robust institutions able to check leaders with authoritarian tendencies, with high courts playing a fundamental role. In a dramatic succession of recent cases, courts in these three countries have been innovative, acted with a high degree of independence, and appear legitimately interested in defending democratic norms. All of this is profoundly surprising. There is little to no track record of independent Latin American judiciaries that stand in the way of authoritarian governments. Closer study of these three countries is therefore critical for scholars and practitioners, who are otherwise locked in debates over the importance of judicial review in preserving democracy. After dozens of judicial reform failures since the 1990s, we may be observing some overdue success. It appears that 1990s judicial reforms are making a comeback in Latin America.

About the Authors

Diego A. Zambrano is associate professor of law at Stanford Law School.

View all work by Diego A. Zambrano

Ludmilla Martins da Silva is a Brazilian attorney pursuing her Doctor of the Science of Law degree at Stanford Law School.

View all work by Ludmilla Martins da Silva

Rolando Garcia Miron is currently a Doctor of the Science of Law candidate at Stanford Law School.

View all work by Rolando Garcia Miron

Santiago P. Rodriguez is currently clerking for Justice Natalia Ángel Cabo of the Colombian Constitutional Court.

View all work by Santiago P. Rodriguez

Further Reading

Volume 33, Issue 1

The Puzzle of Panamanian Exceptionalism

• James Loxton

Despite a turbulent history and rampant corruption, Panama has emerged as one of Latin America’s richest and most stable democracies. How can this be?

Volume 29, Issue 4

Latin America’s Shifting Politics: Ecuador After Correa

• Carlos de la Torre

The question of succession is a tricky one for populist leaders. In Ecuador, it has produced a surprising reversal for Rafael Correa, who had thoroughly dominated the political scene for the past…

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The astonishing electoral victories by opposition presidential candidates in Korea, Taiwan, and Mexico all followed a remarkably similar pattern, but it is one that may lead to difficulties for democratic…