write an essay about describing the climate change of the philippines

• Daily Weather Forecast
• Weather Outlook Selected Philippine Cities
• Asian Cities Weather Forecast
• Weather Outlook Selected Tourist Areas
• Weekly Weather Outlook
• Weather Advisory
• Terminal Aerodome Forecast
• Airways and Terminal Forecast
• High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast
• Gale Warning
• Daily Temperature
• Flood Information
• Dam Information
• Tropical Cyclone Advisory --> Tropical Cyclone Advisory Active -->
• Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Tropical Cyclone Bulletin -->
• Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping -->
• Forecast Storm Surge
• Tropical Cyclone Warning for Agriculture
• TC-Threat Potential Forecast
• Tropical Cyclone Associated Rainfall
• Annual Report on Philippine Tropical Cyclones
• Tropical Cyclone Preliminary Report
• About Tropical Cyclone
• Daily Rainfall and Temperature
• Monthly Monitoring Products
• Southeast Asia Climate Monitoring
• Climate Forum
• 10 Day Climate Forecast
• Sub Seasonal
• Seasonal Forecast
• Specialized Forecast
• Climate Advisories
• CliMap v2.0
• Statistical Downscaling
• Climate Data
• Farm Weather Forecast
• Weekend/Special Farm Weather Forecast
• Ten-Day Regional Agri-Weather Information
• Monthly Philippine Agro-Climatic Review and Outlook
• Impact Assessment for Agriculture
• Telescoping and Stargazing
• Astronomy in the Philippines
• Planetarium
• Astronomical Observatory
• Time Service
• Philippine Standard Time
• Astronomical Diary
• Northern Luzon
• National Capital Region
• Southern Luzon

Introduction

Climate change is happening now. Evidences being seen support the fact that the change cannot simply be explained by natural variation. The most recent scientific assessments have confirmed that this warming of the climate system since the mid-20th century is most likely to be due to human activities; and thus, is due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and land use change. Current warming has increasingly posed quite considerable challenges to man and the environment, and will continue to do so in the future. Presently, some autonomous adaptation is taking place, but we need to consider a more pro-active adaptation planning in order to ensure sustainable development.

What does it take to ensure that adaptation planning has a scientific basis? Firstly, we need to be able to investigate the potential consequences of anthropogenic or human induced climate change and to do this, a plausible future climate based on a reliable and accurate baseline (or present) climate must be constructed. This is what climate scientists call a climate change scenario. It is a projection of the response of the climate system to future emissions or concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and is simulated using climate models. Essentially, it describes possible future changes in climate variables (such as temperatures, rainfall, storminess, winds, etc.) based on baseline climatic conditions.

The climate change scenarios outputs (projections) are an important step forward in improving our understanding of our complex climate, particularly in the future. These show how our local climate could change dramatically should the global community fail to act towards effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate Change Scenarios

As has been previously stated, climate change scenarios are developed using climate models (UNFCCC). These models use mathematical representations of the climate system, simulating the physical and dynamical processes that determine global/regional climate. They range from simple, one-dimensional models to more complex ones such as global climate models (known as GCMs), which model the atmosphere and oceans, and their interactions with land surfaces. They also model change on a regional scale (referred to as regional climate models), typically estimating change in areas in grid boxes that are approximately several hundred kilometers wide. It should be noted that GCMs/RCMs provide only an average change in climate for each grid box, although realistically climates can vary considerably within each grid. Climate models used to develop climate change scenarios are run using different forcings such as the changing greenhouse gas concentrations. These emission scenarios known as the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to give the range of plausible future climate. These emission scenarios cover a range of demographic, societal, economic and technological storylines. They are also sometimes referred to as emission pathways. Table 1 presents the four different storylines (A1, A2, B1 and B2) as defined in the IPCC SRES.

Climate change is driven by factors such as changes in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols, land cover and radiation, and their combinations, which then result in what is called radiative forcing (positive or warming and negative or cooling effect). We do not know how these different drivers will specifically affect the future climate, but the model simulation will provide estimates of its plausible ranges.

A number of climate models have been used in developing climate scenarios. The capacity to do climate modeling usually resides in advanced meteorological agencies and in international research laboratories for climate modeling such as the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research of the UK Met Office (in the United kingdom), the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (in the United States), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (in Germany), the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (in Canada), the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (in Australia), the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency (in Japan), and numerous others. These centers have been developing their climate models and continuously generate new versions of these models in order address the limitations and uncertainties inherent in models.

For the climate change scenarios in the Philippines presented in this Report, the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) model was used. It is a PC-based regional climate model developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research to facilitate impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments in developing countries where capacities to do modeling are limited. Two time slices centered on 2020 (2006-2035) and 2050 (2036-2065) were used in the climate simulations using three emission scenarios; namely, the A2 (high-range emission scenario), the A1B (medium- range emission scenario) and the B2 (low-range emission scenario).

The high-range emission scenario connotes that society is based on self-reliance, with continuously growing population, a regionally-oriented economic development but with fragmented per capita economic growth and technological change. On the other hand, the mid-range emission scenario indicates a future world of very rapid economic growth, with the global population peaking in mid-century and declining thereafter and there is rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies with energy generation balanced across all sources. The low-range emission scenario, in contrast, indicates a world with local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, with continuously increasing global population, but at a rate lower than of the high-range, intermediate levels of economic development, less rapid and more diverse technological change but oriented towards environment protection and social equity.

To start the climate simulations or model runs, outputs (climate information) from the relatively coarse resolution GCMs are used to provide high resolution (using finer grid boxes, normally 10km-100km) climate details, through the use of downscaling techniques. Downscaling is a method that derives local to regional scale (10km-100km x 10km-100km grids) information from larger-scale models (150km-300km x 150km-300km grids) as shown in Fig.1. The smaller the grid, the finer is the resolution giving more detailed climate information.

The climate simulations presented in this report used boundary data that were from the ECHAM4 and HadCM3Q0 (the regional climate models used in the PRECIS model software).

How were the downscaling techniques applied using the PRECIS model?

To run regional climate models, boundary conditions are needed in order to produce local climate scenarios. These boundary conditions are outputs of the GCMs. For the PRECIS model, the following boundary data and control runs were used:

For the high-range scenario, the GCM boundary data used was from ECHAM4. This is the 4th generation coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, which uses a comprehensive parameterization package developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany. Downscaling was to a grid resolution of 25km x 25km; thus, allowing more detailed regional information of the projected climate. Simulated baseline climate used for evaluation of the models capacity of reproducing present climate was the 1971-2000 model run. Its outputs were compared with the 1971-2000 observed values.

For the mid-range scenario, the GCM boundary data was from the HadCM3Q0 version 3 of the coupled model developed at the Hadley Centre. Downscaling was also to a grid resolution of 25km x 25km and the same validation process was undertaken.

For running the low-range scenario, the same ECHAM4 model was used. However, the validation process was only for the period of 1989 to 2000 because the available GCM boundary data in the model was limited to this period.

The simulations for all 3 scenarios were for three periods; 1971 to 2000, 2020 and 2050. The period 1971 to 2000 simulation is referred to as the baseline climate, outputs of which are used to evaluate the models capacity of reproducing present climate (in other words, the control run). By comparing the outputs (i.e., temperature and rainfall) with the observed values for the 1971 to 2000 period, the models ability to realistically represent the regional climatological features within the country is verified. The differences between the outputs and the observed values are called the biases of the model. The 2020 and 2050 outputs are then mathematically corrected, based on the comparison of the models performance.

The main outputs of the simulations for the three SRES scenarios (high-range, mid-range and low-range) are the following:

• projected changes in seasonal and annual mean temperature
• projected changes in minimum and maximum temperatures
• projected changes in seasonal rainfall and
• projected frequency of extreme events

The seasonal variations are as follows:

• the DJF (December, January, February or northeast monsoon locally known as amihan) season
• the MAM (March, April, May or summer) season
• the JJA (June, July, August or southwest monsoon season, or habagat) season and
• the SON (September, October, November or transition from southwest to northeast monsoon) season

On the other hand, extreme events are defined as follows:

• extreme temperature (assessed as number of days with maximum temperature greater than 35°C, following the threshold values used in other countries in the Asia Pacific region)
• dry days (assessed as number of dry days or day with rainfall equal or less than 2.5mm/day, following the World Meteorological Organization standard definition of dry days used in a number of countries) and
• extreme rainfall (assessed as number of days with daily rainfall greater than 300mm, which for wet tropical areas, like the Philippines, is considerably intense that could trigger disastrous events).

How were the uncertainties in the modeling simulations dealt with?

Modeling of our future climate always entails uncertainties. These are inherent in each step in the simulations/modeling done because of a number of reasons. Firstly, emissions scenarios are uncertain. Predicting emissions is largely dependent on how we can predict human behavior, such as changes in population, economic growth, technology, energy availability and national and international policies (which include predicting results of the international negotiations on reducing greenhouse gas emissions). Secondly, current understanding of the carbon cycle and of sources and sinks of non-carbon greenhouse gases are still incomplete. Thirdly, consideration of very complex feedback processes in the climate system in the climate models used can also contribute to the uncertainties in the outputs generated as these could not be adequately represented in the models.

But while it is difficult to predict global greenhouse gas emission rates far into the future, it is stressed that projections for up to 2050 show little variation between different emission scenarios, as these near-term changes in climate are strongly affected by greenhouse gases that have already been emitted and will stay in the atmosphere for the next 50 years. Hence, for projections for the near-term until 2065, outputs of the mid-range emission scenario are presented in detail in this Report.

Ideally, numerous climate models and a number of the emission scenarios provided in the SRES should be used in developing the climate change scenarios in order to account for the limitations in each of the models used, and the numerous ways global greenhouse gas emissions would go. The different model outputs should then be analyzed to calculate the median of the future climate projections in the selected time slices. By running more climate models for each emission scenarios, the higher is the statistical confidence in the resulting projections as these constitute the ensemble representing the median values of the model outputs.

The climate projections for the three emission scenarios were obtained using the PRECIS model only due to several constraints and limitations. These constraints and limitations are:

Access to climate models: at the start, PAGASA had not accessed climate models due to computing and technical capacity requirements needed to run them;

Time constraints: the use of currently available computers required substantial computing time to run the models (measured in weeks and months). This had been partly addressed under the capacity upgrading initiatives being implemented by the MDGF Joint Programme which include procurement of more powerful computers and acquiring new downscaling techniques. Improved equipment and new techniques have reduced the computing time requirements to run the models. However, additional time is still needed to run the models using newly acquired downscaling techniques; and

The PAGASA strives to improve confidence in the climate projections and is continuously exerting efforts to upgrade its technical capacities and capabilities. Models are run as soon as these are acquired with the end-goal of producing an ensemble of the projections. Updates on the projections, including comparisons with the current results, will be provided as soon as these are available.

What is the level of confidence in the climate projections?

The IPCC stresses that there is a large degree of uncertainty in predicting what the future world will be despite taking into account all reasonable future developments. Nevertheless, there is high confidence in the occurrence of global warming due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by humans, as affirmed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Global climate simulations done to project climate scenarios until the end of the 21st century indicate that, although there are vast differences between the various scenarios, the values of temperature increase begin to diverge only after the middle of this century (shown in Fig.3). The long lifetimes of the greenhouse gases (in particular, that of carbon dioxide) already in the atmosphere is the reason for this behavior of this climate response to largely varying emission scenarios.

Model outputs that represent the plausible local climate scenarios in this Report are indicative to the extent that they reflect the large-scale changes (in the regional climate model used) modified by the projected local conditions in the country.

It also should be stressed further that confidence in the climate change information depends on the variable being considered (e.g., temperature increase, rainfall change, extreme event indices, etc.). In all the model runs regardless of emission scenarios used, there is greater confidence in the projections of mean temperature than that of the others. On the other hand, projections of rainfall and extreme events entail consideration of convective processes which are inherently complex, and thus, limiting the degree of confidence in the outputs.

What are the possible applications of these model-generated climate scenarios?

Climate scenarios are commonly required in climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments to provide alternative views of future conditions considered likely to affect society, systems and sectors, including a quantification of climate risks, challenges and opportunities. climate scenario outputs could be used in any of the following:.

• to illustrate projected climate change in a given administrative region/province
• to provide data for impact/adaptation assessment studies
• to communicate potential consequences of climate change (e.g., specifying a future changed climate to estimate potential shifts in say, vegetation, species threatened or at risk of extinction, etc.) and
• for strategic planning (e.g., quantifying projected sea level rise and other climate changes for the design of coastal infrastructure/defenses such as sea walls, etc.)

Current Climate and Observed Trends

Current climate change in the philippines.

The world has increasingly been concerned with the changes in our climate due largely to adverse impacts being seen not just globally, but also in regional, national and even, local scales. In 1988, the United Nations established the IPCC to evaluate the risks of climate change and provide objective information to governments and various communities such as the academe, research organizations, private sector, etc. The IPCC has successively done and published its scientific assessment reports on climate change, the first of which was released in 1990. These reports constitute consensus documents produced by numerous lead authors, contributing authors and review experts representing Country Parties of the UNFCCC, including invited eminent scientists in the field from all over the globe.

In 2007, the IPCC made its strongest statement yet on climate change in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), when it concluded that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that most of the warming during the last 50 years or so (e.g., since the mid-20th century) is due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities. It is also very likely that changes in the global climate system will continue into the future, and that these will be larger than those seen in our recent past (IPCC, 2007a).

Fig.4 shows the 0.74 C increase in global mean temperature during the last 150 years compared with the 1961-1990 global average. It is the steep increase in temperature since the mid-20th century that is causing worldwide concern, particularly in terms of increasing vulnerability of poor developing countries, like the Philippines, to adverse impacts of even incremental changes in temperatures.

The IPCC AR4 further states that the substantial body of evidence that support this most recent warming includes rising surface temperature, sea level rise and decrease in snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere (shown in Fig.5).

Additionally, there have been changes in extreme events globally and these include;

• widespread changes in extreme temperatures observed;
• cold days, cold nights and frost becoming less frequent;
• hot days, hot nights and heat waves becoming more frequent; and
• observational evidence for an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs).

However, there are differences between and within regions. For instance, in the Southeast Asia region which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, among others, temperature increases have been observed; although magnitude varies from one country to another. Changes in rainfall patterns, characteristically defined by changes in monsoon performance, have also been noted. Analysis of trends of extreme daily events (temperatures and rainfall) in the Asia Pacific region (including Australia and New Zealand, and parts of China and Japan) also indicate spatial coherence in the increase of hot days, warm nights and heat waves, and the decrease of cold days, cold nights and frost; although, there is no definite direction of rainfall change across the entire region (Manton et. al., 2001).

Current Climate Trends in the Philippines

The Philippines, like most parts of the globe, has also exhibited increasing temperatures as shown in Fig.6 below. The graph of observed mean temperature anomalies (or departures from the 1971-2000 normal values) during the period 1951 to 2010 indicate an increase of 0.648 C or an average of 0.0108 C per year-increase.

The increase in maximum (or daytime) temperatures and minimum (or night time) temperatures are shown in Fig.7 and Fig.8. During the last 60 years, maximum and minimum temperatures are seen to have increased by 0.36 ºC and 1.0°C, respectively.

Analysis of trends of tropical cyclone occurrence or passage within the so-called Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) show that an average of 20 tropical cyclones form and/or cross the PAR per year. The trend shows a high variability over the decades but there is no indication of increase in the frequency. However, there is a very slight increase in the number of tropical cyclones with maximum sustained winds of greater than 150kph and above (typhoon category) being exhibited during El NiÑo event (See Fig.10).

Moreover, the analysis on tropical cyclone passage over the three main islands (Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao), the 30-year running means show that there has been a slight increase in the Visayas during the 1971 to 2000 as compared with the 1951 to 1980 and 1960-1990 periods (See Fig.11).

To detect trends in extreme daily events, indices had been developed and used. Analysis of extreme daily maximum and minimum temperatures (hot-days index and cold-nights index, respectively) show there are statistically significant increasing number of hot days but decreasing number of cool nights (as shown in Fig.12 and Fig.13). 

However, the trends of increases or decreases in extreme daily rainfall are not statistically significant; although, there have been changes in extreme rain events in certain areas in the Philippines. For instance, intensity of extreme daily rainfall is already being experienced in most parts of the country, but not statistically significant (see in Fig.14). Likewise, the frequency has exhibited an increasing trend, also, not statistically significant (as shown in Fig.15).

The rates of increases or decreases in the trends are point values (i.e., specific values in the synoptic weather stations only) and are available at PAGASA, if needed.

Climate Projections

Projections on seasonal temperature increase and rainfall change, and total frequency of extreme events nationally and in the provinces using the mid-range scenario outputs are presented in this chapter. A comparison of these values with the high- and low- range scenarios in 2020 and 2050 is provided in the technical annexes.

It is to be noted that all the projected changes are relative to the baseline (1971-2000) climate. For example, a projected 1.0 C-increase in 2020 in a province means that 1.0 C is added to the baseline mean temperature value of the province as indicated in the table to arrive at the value of projected mean temperature. Therefore, if the baseline mean temperature is 27.8 C, then the projected mean temperature in the future is (27.8 C + 1.0 C) or 28.8 C.

In a similar manner, for say, a +25%-rainfall change in a province, it means that 25% of the seasonal mean rainfall value in the said province (from table of baseline climate) is added to the mean value. Thus, if the baseline seasonal rainfall is 900mm, then projected rainfall in the future is 900mm + 225mm or 1125mm.

This means that we are already experiencing some of the climate change shown in the findings under the mid-range scenario, as we are now into the second decade of the century. Classification of climate used the Corona's four climate types (Types I to IV), based on monthly rainfall received during the year. A province is considered to have Type I climate if there is a distinct dry and a wet season; wet from June to November and dry, the rest of the year. Type II climate is when there is no dry period at all throughout the year, with a pronounced wet season from November to February. On the other hand, Type III climate is when there is a short dry season, usually from February to April, and Type IV climate is when the rainfall is almost evenly distributed during the whole year. The climate classification in the Philippines is shown in Fig.16.

Seasonal Temperature Change

All areas of the Philippines will get warmer, more so in the relatively warmer summer months. Mean temperatures in all areas in the Philippines are expected to rise by 0.9 C to 1.1 C in 2020 and by 1.8 C to 2.2 C in 2050. Likewise, all seasonal mean temperatures will also have increases in these time slices; and these increases during the four seasons are quite consistent in all parts of the country. Largest temperature increase is projected during the summer (MAM) season.

Seasonal Rainfall Change

Generally, there is reduction in rainfall in most parts of the country during the summer (MAM) season. However, rainfall increase is likely during the southwest monsoon (JJA) season until the transition (SON) season in most areas of Luzon and Visayas, and also, during the northeast monsoon (DJF) season, particularly, in provinces/areas characterized as Type II climate in 2020 and 2050. There is however, generally decreasing trend in rainfall in Mindanao, especially by 2050.

There are varied trends in the magnitude and direction of the rainfall changes, both in 2020 and 2050. What the projections clearly indicate are the likely increase in the performance of the southwest and the northeast monsoons in the provinces exposed to these climate controls when they prevail over the country. Moreover, the usually wet seasons become wetter with the usually dry seasons becoming also drier; and these could lead to more occurrences of floods and dry spells/droughts, respectively.

Extreme Temperature Events

Hot temperatures will continue to become more frequent in the future. Fig.19 shows that the number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35 C (following value used by other countries in the Asia Pacific region in extreme events analysis) is increasing in 2020 and 2050.

Extreme Rainfall Events

Heavy daily rainfall will continue to become more frequent, extreme rainfall is projected to increase in Luzon and Visayas only, but number of dry days is expected to increase in all parts of the country in 2020 and 2050. Figures 20 and 21 show the projected increase in number of dry days (with dry day defined as that with rainfall less than 2.5mm) and the increase in number of days with extreme rainfall (defined as daily rainfall exceeding 300 mm) compared with the observed (baseline) values, respectively.

Climate Projections for Provinces

Impacts of climate change.

Climate change is one of the most fundamental challenges ever to confront humanity. Its adverse impacts are already being seen and may intensify exponentially over time if nothing is done to reduce further emissions of greenhouse gases. Decisively dealing NOW with climate change is key to ensuring sustainable development, poverty eradication and safeguarding economic growth. Scientific assessments indicate that the cost of inaction now will be more costly in the future. Thus, economic development needs to be shifted to a low-carbon emission path.

In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted as the basis for a global response to the problem. The Philippines signed the UNFCCC on 12 June 1992 and ratified the international treaty on 2 August 1994. Presently, the Convention enjoys near-universal membership, with 194 Country Parties.

Recognizing that the climate system is a shared resource which is greatly affected by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, the UNFCCC has set out an overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to consider what can be done to reduce global warming and to cope with whatever temperature increases are inevitable. Its ultimate objective is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.

Countries are actively discussing and negotiating ways to deal with the climate change problem within the UNFCCC using two central approaches. The first task is to address the root cause by reducing greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. The means to achieve this are very contentious, as it will require radical changes in the way many societies are organized, especially in respect to fossil fuel use, industry operations, land use, and development. Within the climate change arena, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is called mitigation.

The second task in responding to climate change is to manage its impacts. Future impacts on the environment and society are now inevitable, owing to the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere from past decades of industrial and other human activities, and to the added amounts from continued emissions over the next few decades until such time as mitigation policies and actions become effective. We are therefore committed to changes in the climate. Taking steps to cope with the changed climate conditions both in terms of reducing adverse impacts and taking advantage of potential benefits is called adaptation.

What if the emissions are less or greater?

Responses of the local climate to the mid-range compared to the high- and low-range scenarios are as shown in Fig. 22 below. Although there are vast differences in the projections, the so-called temperature anomalies or difference in surface temperature increase begin to diverge only in the middle of the 21st century. As has already been stated, the climate in the next 30 to 40 years is greatly influenced by past greenhouse gas emissions. The long lifetimes of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, with the exception of methane (with a lifetime of only 13 years), will mean that it will take at least 30 to 40 years for the atmosphere to stabilize even if mitigation measures are put in place, not withstanding that in the near future, there could be some off-setting between sulfate aerosols (cooling effect) and the greenhouse gas concentrations (warming effect).

Likely impacts of Climate Change

A warmer world is certain to impact on systems and sectors; although, magnitude of impacts will depend on factors such as sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity to climate risks. In most cases, likely impacts will be adverse. However, there could be instances when likely impacts present opportunities for potential benefits as in the case of the so-called carbon fertilization effect in which increased carbon dioxide could lead to increased yield provided temperatures do not exceed threshold values for a given crop/cultivar.

Water Resources

In areas/regions where rainfall is projected to decrease, there will be water stress (both in quantity and quality), which in turn, will most likely cascade into more adverse impacts, particularly on forestry, agriculture and livelihood, health, and human settlement. Large decreases in rainfall and longer drier periods will affect the amount of water in watersheds and dams which provide irrigation services to farmers, especially those in rain fed areas, thereby, limiting agricultural production. Likewise, energy production from dams could also be rendered insufficient in those areas where rainfall is projected to decrease, and thus, could largely affect the energy sufficiency program of the country. Design of infrastructure, particularly of dams, will need to be re-visited to ensure that these will not be severely affected by the projected longer drier periods.

In areas where rainfall could be intense during wet periods, flooding events would follow and may pose danger to human settlements and infrastructure, in terms of landslides and mudslides, most especially, in geologically weak areas. Additionally, these flooding events could impact severely on public infrastructure, such as roads and bridges, including classrooms, evacuation centers, and hospitals.

Adaptive capacity is enhanced when impact and vulnerability assessments are used as the basis of strategic and long-term planning for adaptation. Assessments would indicate areas where critical water shortages can be expected leading to possible reduction of water available for domestic consumption, less irrigation service delivery, and possibly, decreased energy generation in dams. Note that the adverse impacts would cascade, so that long-term pro-active planning for these possible impacts is imperative in order to be able to respond effectively, and avoid maladaptations. A number of adaptation strategies should be considered. Among the wide array of cost effective options are rational water management, planning to avoid mismatch between water supply and demand through policies, upgrading/rehabilitation of dams where these are cost-effective, changes in cropping patterns in agricultural areas, establishing rain water collection facilities, where possible, and early warning systems.

Changes in rainfall regimes and patterns resulting to increase/decrease in water use and temperature increases could lead to a change in the forests ecosystem, particularly in areas where the rains are severely limited, and can no longer provide favorable conditions for certain highly sensitive species. Some of our forests could face die-backs. Additionally, drier periods and warmer temperatures, especially during the warm phase of El Nino events, could cause forest fires. A very likely threat to communities that largely depend on the ecological services provided by forests is that they may face the need to alter their traditions and livelihoods. This change in practices and behavior can lead to further degradation of the environment as they resort to more extensive agricultural production in already degraded areas.

Adverse impacts on forestry areas and resources could be expected to multiply in a future warmer world. The value of impact and vulnerability assessments could not be underscored. These assessments would help decision makers and stakeholders identify the best option to address the different impacts on forest areas, watersheds and agroforestry. Indigenous communities have to plan for climate-resilient alternative livelihoods. Thus, it is highly important to plan for rational forest management, particularly, in protected areas and in ancestral domains. One of the more important issues to consider is how to safeguard livelihoods in affected communities so as not to further exacerbate land degradation. Early warning systems in this sector will play a very important role in forest protection through avoidance and control/containment of forest fires.

Agriculture

Agriculture in the country could be severely affected by temperature changes coupled with changes in rain regimes and patterns. Crops have been shown to suffer decreases in yields whenever temperatures have exceeded threshold values and possibly result to spikelet sterility, as in the case of rice. The reduction in crop yield would remain unmitigated or even aggravated if management technologies are not put in place. Additionally, in areas where rain patterns change or when extreme events such as floods or droughts happen more often, grain and other agricultural produce could suffer shortfalls in the absence of effective and timely interventions. Tropical cyclones, particularly if there will be an increase in numbers and/or strength will continue to exert pressure on agricultural production.

Moreover, temperature increases coupled with rainfall changes could affect the incidence/outbreaks of pests and diseases, both in plants and animals. The pathways through which diseases and pests could be triggered and rendered most favorable to spread are still largely unknown. It is therefore important that research focus on these issues.

In the fisheries sub-sector, migration of fish to cooler and deeper waters would force the fisher folks to travel further from the coasts in order to increase their catch. Seaweed production, already being practiced as an adaptation to climate change in a number of poor and depressed coastal communities could also be impacted adversely.

Decreased yields and inadequate job opportunities in the agricultural sector could lead to migration and shifts in population, resulting to more pressure in already depressed urban areas, particularly in mega cities. Food security will largely be affected, especially if timely, effective and efficient interventions are not put in place. Insufficient food supply could further lead to more malnutrition, higher poverty levels, and possibly, heightened social unrest and conflict in certain areas in the country, and even among the indigenous tribes.

A careful assessment of primary and secondary impacts in this sector, particularly, in production systems and livelihoods will go a long way in avoiding food security and livelihood issues. Proactive planning (short- and long-term adaptation measures) will help in attaining poverty eradication, sufficient nutrition and secure livelihoods goals. There is a wide cross-section of adaptation strategies that could be put in place, such as horizontal and vertical diversification of crops, farmer field schools which incorporate use of weather/climate information in agricultural operations, including policy environment for subsidies and climate-friendly agricultural technologies, weather-based insurance, and others. To date, there has not been much R&D that has been done on inland and marine fisheries technologies, a research agenda on resilient marine sector could form part of long-term planning for this subsector.

Coastal Resources

The countrys coastal resources are highly vulnerable due to its extensive coastlines. Sea level rise is highly likely in a changing climate, and low-lying islands will face permanent inundation in the future. The combined effects of continued temperature increases, changes in rainfall and accelerated sea level rise, and tropical cyclone occurrences including the associated storm surges would expose coastal communities to higher levels of threat to life and property. The livelihood of these communities would also be threatened in terms of further stress to their fishing opportunities, loss of productive agricultural lands and saltwater intrusion, among others.

Impact and vulnerability assessment as well as adaptation planning for these coastal areas are of high priority. Adaptation measures range from physical structures such as sea walls where they still are cost-effective, to development/revision of land use plans using risk maps as the basis, to early warning systems for severe weather, including advisories on storm surge probabilities, as well as planning for and developing resilient livelihoods where traditional fishing/ agriculture are no longer viable.

Human health is one of the most vital sectors which will be severely affected by climate change. Incremental increases in temperatures and rain regimes could trigger a number of adverse impacts; in particular, the outbreak and spread of water-based and vector-borne diseases leading to higher morbidity and mortality; increased incidence of pulmonary illnesses among young children and cardiovascular diseases among the elderly. In addition, there could also be increased health risk from poor air quality especially in urbanized areas.

Surveillance systems and infrastructure for monitoring and prevention of epidemics could also be under severe stress when there is a confluence of circumstances. Hospitals and clinics, and evacuation centers and resettlement areas could also be severely affected under increased frequency and intensity of severe weather events.

Moreover, malnutrition is expected to become more severe with more frequent occurrences of extreme events that disrupt food supply and provision of health services. The services of the Department of Health will be severely tested unless early and periodic assessments of plausible impacts of climate change are undertaken.

Scientific assessments have indicated that the Earth is now committed to continued and faster warming unless drastic global mitigation action is put in place the soonest. The likely impacts of climate change are numerous and most could seriously hinder the realization of targets set under the Millennium Development Goals; and thus, sustainable development. Under the UNFCCC, Country Parties have common but differentiated responsibilities. All Country Parties share the common responsibility of protecting the climate system but must shoulder different responsibilities. This means that the developed countries including those whose economies are in transition (or the so-called Annex 1 Parties) have an obligation to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions based on their emissions at 1990 levels and provide assistance to developing countries (or the so-called non-Annex 1 Parties) to adapt to impacts of climate change.

In addition, the commitment to mitigate or reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by countries which share the responsibility of having historically caused this global problem, as agreed upon in the Kyoto Protocol, is dictated by the imperative to avoid what climate scientists refer to as the climate change tipping point. Tipping point is defined as the maximum temperature increase that could happen within the century, which could lead to sudden and dramatic changes to some of the major geophysical elements of the Earth. The effects of these changes could be varied from a dramatic rise in sea levels that could flood coastal regions to widespread crop failures. But, it still is possible to avoid them with cuts in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, both in the developed and developing countries, in particular, those which are now fast approaching the emission levels seen in rich countries.

In the Philippines, there are now a number of assisted climate change adaptation programmes and projects that are being implemented. Among these are the Millennium Development Goals Fund 1656: Strengthening the Philippines Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change funded by the Government of Spain, the Philippine Climate Change Adaptation Project (which aims to develop the resiliency and test adaptation strategies that will develop the resiliency of farms and natural resource management to the effects of climate change) funded by the Global Environmental Facility(GEF) through the World Bank, the Adaptation to Climate Change and Conservation of Biodiversity Project and the National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (envisioned to develop the adaptation capacity of communities), both funded by the GTZ, Germany.

  RESOURCES

• Republic Act No. 9729
• Climate Change and the Philippines_ Executive Brief 2018-01
• Republic Act No. 10174
• National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (NFSCC)
• Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2017-2022
• Instrument of Accession of the Philippines
• (Annex I) Declaration of State

Climate Change Impacts

Philippines is the third most vulnerable country to climate change according to the 2017 world risk report. Impacts of climate change in the Philippines are immense, including: annual losses in GDP, changes in rainfall patterns and distribution, droughts, threats to biodiversity and food security, sea level rise, public health risks, and endangerment of vulnerable groups such as women and indigenous people.

Philippines to lose 6% GDP anually by 2100  

The latest IPCC Assessment Report concluded that climate change will create new poor between now and 2100. Poverty breeds disaster vulnerability, and those who have least in life risk like most.

Based on a study by the Asian Development Bank on the economics of climate change, the country stands to lose 6% of its GDP annually by 2100 if it disregards climate change risks. This same study found that if the Philippines invests 0.5% of its GDP by 2020 in climate change adaptation, it can avert losses of up to 4% of its GDP by 2100—clearly a short-term investment with a long-term eight-fold gain.

Major rainfall changes in patterns and distributions  

A 2011 PAGASA report suggests a decrease in rainfall by 2020 in most parts of the country except Luzon. As far as extreme rainfall is concerned, however, the number of days with heavy rainfall (e.g., greater than 200 mm) is expected to increase with global warming by the year 2020 and 2050.

Threats to natural ecosystems

Approximately 1 million hectares of grasslands in the Philippines are highly vulnerable to climate change in the future. Most grasslands in the uplands are prone to fires particularly during extended periods of dryness and lack of rainfall during summer.

Coral Loss The 2016 Low Carbon Monitor Report foresees that 98 percent of coral reefs in Southeast Asia will die by 2050, practically an extinction by the end of the century if current global warming trends will continue. The IPCC projects that by years 2051 to 2060, the maximum fish catch potential of Philippine seas will decrease by as much as 50% compared to 2001-2010 levels.

Declining rice yields An analysis of temperature trends and irrigated field experiments at the International Rice Research Institute shows that grain yield decreased by at least 10% for each 1°C increase in growing-season minimum temperature in the dry season.

More intense droughts Global warming exacerbates the effects of El Niño the most recent of which was experienced in the country from 2015 to 2016. The Department of Agriculture estimated that 413,456 farmers have been directly affected by El Niño-associated drought and dry spells during the last El Niño period.

Higher sea level rise Observed sea level rise is remarkably highest at 60 centimeters in the Philippines, about three times that of the global average of 19 centimeters. This puts at risk 60% of LGUs covering 64 coastal provinces, 822 coastal municipalities, 25 major coastal cities, and an estimated 13.6 million Filipinos that would need relocation.

Water scarcity Climate change, rapid urbanization, and population growth drives water scarcity worldwide. A study conducted by the World Resources Institute predicts that Philippines will experience a 'high' degree of water shortage by the year 2040. The country ranked 57th likely most water stressed country in 2040 out of 167 countries. The sector that will bear the brunt of water shortage by that year is agriculture, a major component of the country’s economy and which currently employs x% of the country's workforce.

Labor productivity declined According to a 2016 United Nations study, climate change-induced heat in the workplace is projected to render 1% loss in working hours by 2025, 2% by 2050, and 4% by 2085.

More public health emergencies Higher temperatures also trigger the surge of diseases such as dengue, malaria, cholera, and typhoid. In 1998, when the Philippines experienced the strongest El Nino phenomenon to-date, almost 40,000 dengue cases, 1,200 cholera cases, and nearly 1,000 typhoid fever cases, were recorded nationwide.

More women endangered and killed A paper released by the World Health Organization (WHO) examining gender, climate change, and health, stated that the impacts of natural hazards such as droughts, floods and storms affect more women than men, and tend to affect women at a younger age. Climate-sensitive and gender-specific health impacts affect women disproportionately than men.

Stronger Climate Action Will Support Sustainable Recovery and Accelerate Poverty Reduction in the Philippines

MANILA, November 09, 2022 – Climate change is exacting a heavy toll on Filipinos’ lives, properties, and livelihoods, and left unaddressed, could hamper the country’s ambition of becoming an upper middle-income country by 2040. However, the Philippines has many of the tools and instruments required to reduce damages substantially, according to the World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for the Philippines, released today.

With 50 percent of its 111 million population living in urban areas, and many cities in coastal areas, the Philippines is vulnerable to sea level rise. Changes due to the variability and intensity of rainfall in the country and increased temperatures will affect food security and the safety of the population.

Multiple indices rank the Philippines as one of the countries most affected by extreme climate events. The country has experienced highly destructive typhoons almost annually for the past 10 years. Annual losses from typhoons have been estimated at 1.2 percent of GDP.

Climate action in the Philippines must address both extreme and slow-onset events. Adaptation and mitigation actions, some of which are already underway in the country, would reduce vulnerability and future losses if fully implemented.

“Climate impacts threaten to significantly lower the country’s GDP and the well-being of Filipinos by 2040. However, policy actions and investments – principally to protect valuable infrastructure from typhoons and to make agriculture more resilient through climate-smart measures -- could reduce these negative climate impacts by two-thirds,” said World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific, Manuela V. Ferro.

The private sector has a crucial role to play in accelerating the adoption of green technologies and ramping up climate finance by working with local financial institutions and regulators.

“ The investments needed to undertake these actions are substantial, but not out of reach, ” said IFC Acting Vice President for Asia and the Pacific, John Gandolfo . “ The business leaders and bankers who embrace climate as a business opportunity and offer these low-carbon technologies, goods and services will be the front runners of our future. ”

The report also undertakes an in-depth analysis of challenges and opportunities for climate-related actions in agriculture, water, energy, and transport. Among the recommendations are:

• Avoiding new construction in flood-prone areas.
• Improving water storage to reduce the risk of damaging floods and droughts. This will also increase water availability.
• Extending irrigation in rainfed areas and promoting climate-smart agriculture practices such as Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD).
• Making social protection programs adaptive and scalable to respond to climate shocks.
• Removing obstacles that private actors face in scaling investments in renewable energy.
•  Ensuring new buildings are energy efficient and climate resilient.

Many climate actions will make the Philippines more resilient while also contributing to mitigating climate change.

“The Philippines would benefit from an energy transition towards more renewable energy.  Accelerated decarbonization would reduce electricity costs by about 20 percent below current levels which is good for the country’s competitiveness and would also dramatically reduce air pollution,” said Ferro.

Even with vigorous adaptation efforts, climate change will affect many people. Some climate actions may also have adverse effects on particular groups, such as workers displaced by the move away from high-emission activities. The report recommends that the existing social protection system in the country be strengthened and scaled up to provide support to affected sectors and groups.

World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports : The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are new core diagnostic reports that integrate climate change and development considerations. They will help countries prioritize the most impactful actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support the low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector, and development partners and enable engagements with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs will feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements, and operations to help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action.

• 10 Things You Should Know About the World Bank Group’s First Batch of Country Climate and Development Reports
• CCDR Video link

Download the full report 

Watch the video

Key findings 

Watch the launch event

The World Bank in the Philippines

The World Bank in East Asia and Pacific

Follow the World Bank on Facebook

Follow the World Bank on Twitter

This site uses cookies to optimize functionality and give you the best possible experience. If you continue to navigate this website beyond this page, cookies will be placed on your browser. To learn more about cookies, click here .

Philippines

Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Philippines.

• Climate Change Overview

Country Summary

• Climatology
• Trends & Variability
• Mean Projections (CMIP6)
• Extreme Events
• Historical Natural Hazards
• Sea Level Rise

This page presents high-level information for Philippines's climate zones and its seasonal cycle for mean temperature and precipitation for the latest climatology, 1991-2020. Climate zone classifications are derived from the  Köppen-Geiger climate classification system , which divides climates into five main climate groups divided based on seasonal precipitation and temperature patterns. The five main groups are  A  (tropical),  B  (dry),  C  (temperate),  D  (continental), and  E  (polar). All climates except for those in the E group are assigned a seasonal precipitation sub-group (second letter).  Climate classifications are identified by hovering your mouse over the legend. A narrative overview of Philippines's country context and climate is provided following the visualizations.

The Philippines is an archipelago comprised of 7,107 islands (1,000 of which are inhabit), with a humid climate and a topography characterized by mountainous terrain bordered by narrow coastal plains. Considered one of the most biologically rich and diverse countries in the world, the Philippines also has one of the world’s longest coastlines, and its marine and coastal resources yield US$3.5 billion annually in goods and services. The country’s mineral, oil, gas, and geothermal potential are also significant.

The Philippines is considered to be among the world’s most disaster-prone countries. Commonly occurring hazards include floods, droughts, typhoons, landslides and mudslides, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. Recent decades have witnessed an increase in damaging extreme events, such as heavy rainfall and tropical cyclone activity, and this trend is expected to continue under a changing climate. Many Filipino families live and make their living along coastal areas and depend highly on the natural resources from the sea, the land, and the forests for their livelihood and survival makes the Philippines doubly susceptible to the harsh impacts of climate change

• VIEW BY MAP
• VIEW BY LIST

• GREAT ENERGY CHALLENGE

Manila Observatory: Front-Line View of Climate Change, and the Poverty-Risk Connection

From their vantage point at Manila Observatory , scientists have monitored changes in temperature and rainfall that have altered life in the Philippines. But they also have watched changes due to human actions —land-use, building, and development decisions that have made people more vulnerable to extreme events, like Typhoon Haiyan.

Antonia Yulo Loyzaga, executive director, talked about the Observatory’s work, which was to be featured Thursday at the Powering Progress Together forum in Manila sponsored by Shell.* Loyzaga discussed her colleagues’ work in helping to improve understanding of the new weather and geological hazards the nation faces, and how cities and communities can reduce their risk in a changing climate.   (See related “ Quiz: What You Don’t Know About Climate Change Science .”)

The Observatory collaborates on climate and disaster risk reduction with the International Council for Science, the International Development Research Center, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, and other agencies. Recently, Loyzaga headed a logistics coordination and situational awareness support team for the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response effort during Typhoon Haiyan.     (See related, “ Q & A With Philippines Climate Envoy Who’s Fasting After Super Typhoon Haiyan .”)

Loyzaga also leads the metropolitan Manila team of Coastal Cities at Risk (CCaR), an international project aimed at building capacity for climate change adaptation in five coastal megacities. She is a member of the Science and Technology Committee of the UNESCO National Commission and represents the Manila Observatory on the Philippines Department of Science and Technology’s Committee on Space Technology Applications.

We had a conversation by email before her speech in Manila.

Tell me about the role of the Manila Observatory.

[It] is a scientific research institution focused on transforming development through evidence-based solutions. We were established [in 1865] principally to try and understand the impacts of changes in climate, weather and geological hazards on populations in this area of the Pacific region.

Then, as now, many of these settlements were in coastal areas or along riverbanks, in order to gain access three basic resources: food, water, and energy. Urbanization in this century has created coastal megacities that radically altered land cover [and] land use, as well as the ways we use sources of inland, coastal, and marine waters. The local ecological footprints of these cities have global impact. Their emissions fuel the engine of climate change. And rapid unregulated urban growth has, in turn, led to environmental changes that have altered land-ocean-atmosphere interactions.

For populations in developing countries such as the Philippines, urban growth has not necessarily meant sustainable development. In some megacities, such as Bangkok, Manila, or Lagos, biogeophysical and social complexity threatens their resilience to disasters. At the Manila Observatory we seek ways by which a dynamic and systematic understanding of climate change, disaster risk, and human development can decrease exposure and vulnerability, and pave the way for inclusive growth.

What is your message on poverty and disaster risk?

Policymakers and the general public need to embrace the value of good science in making development decisions. Investment in infrastructure, social services, and environmental analysis cannot be divorced from each other. Understanding their complex relationships, formulating integrated solutions, and developing institutional capacity to implement these are essential to moving forward together. It has been said that risk reduction is about having the right information in the hands of the right person, at the right time. We should add: This person and the affected population also need the right tools, technologies, systems, and the political will to accept and use them.

How vulnerable is the Philippines to the impacts of climate change?

As of 2012, the Philippines continued to rank third in the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security’s list of countries most at risk of disasters . Given [typhoons Bopha] and Haiyan, we do not expect our ranking to improve in 2013 and 2014.

We are an archipelagic country with a declared government policy that supports the urbanization of coastal cities in order to spur economic growth. (See related “ Quiz: What You Don’t Know About Cities and Energy .”)   Hyperconcentrating people and economic resources in coastal areas—without investing in the institutional capacity to build a shared understanding of the science of integrated risks from climate change and geological hazards—is a recipe for disaster.(See related, “ 5 Reasons the Philippines Is So Disaster Prone .”)

You May Also Like

Extreme heat is the future. Here are 10 practical ways to manage it.

2024 hurricane season forecasted to be record-breaking year

‘Corn sweat’—and other weird weather phenomena—explained

The Philippines is rapidly becoming an urban nation with most of its population [living] on floodplains or coasts. We are situated along the Ring of Fire and face both the Pacific Ocean and the West Philippine Sea. The heating up of these bodies of water generates tropical cyclones and monsoon rains. Unfortunately, poverty has not decreased significantly in the last decade and migration to peri-urban areas is seen as the pathway to a better future. When combined, extreme weather, increases in population density, and the persistence of poverty constitute the essential ingredients of a disaster.

What lessons can be drawn from Typhoon Haiyan?

The last two reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emphasized the development-related links between hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. These three elements constitute disaster risk. The reports also state that extreme weather events are more likely to occur due to the failure to decrease emissions which fuel climate change. While Haiyan taught us many lessons, these are the ones that I believe stand out:

Understanding the hazard before it strikes; what is exposed and why you are vulnerable are essential to reducing risk and saving more lives. The physical forms, dimensions, and location of coastal areas influence the ways the ocean will impact settlements when waves from extreme weather and tsunami strike.

• Risk communication is not hazard communication. Early warning must also be in the voice of the vulnerable and not only in the voice of the hazard scientist. When it comes to saving lives, understanding the science of hazards beforehand, can be just as important as understanding its possible impact. Even if no one knew what a storm surge was, if they understood that its impact on them would be just like a tsunami, would more have been able to respond correctly to the warning?
•   Informed collaboration, coordination and clear lines of authority are imperative. To quote the New York Times’ Dot Earth blogger Andrew Revkin, “ Complexity + Complacency = Calamity .” We need to ask the question: Given the amount of government and international support, could there have been a systematic, science-based search and rescue operation to save those who had been buried alive?

What more should have been done on weather warnings, as well as on recovery?

A disaster expert involved in Haiti told a group of us recently, “Nothing changes, until behavior changes.” This means that risk reduction and climate change adaptation are essentially social achievements. The Manila Observatory’s archives show similar disasters occurred in the places struck by Haiyan in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. To paraphrase the current buzzwords, had we built back better elsewhere after each one, would Haiyan have been a catastrophe?

In developing countries, where poverty is a form of persistent vulnerability, resilience does not mean the restoration of a community to its former state. Rehabilitation and recovery must therefore be risk-sensitive. Livelihoods can be the sources of survival and the drivers of exposure and vulnerability at the same time. Reconstruction, which is the most tangible investment in recovery, cannot be equated with dividing up land into disconnected parcels of physical planning and development. Where informality is historically present as a socioeconomic and physical pattern, rehabilitation and recovery necessarily means education, institutional social change and a program of inclusive redevelopment.

How important is science in managing risks and environmental impacts?    

The Society of Jesus established the Manila Observatory in 1865 in order to serve the Filipino people through scientific excellence. At the cusp of our 150th year, this mission has not changed.

Scientific knowledge and research are essential building blocks of sustainable development. While there have been advances in technology far beyond what our founders could have dreamed, the fundamental challenges facing the Philippines and the rest of the world are essentially the same: Where do we find energy, water, and food to support a humane existence for all?

Our world can sustain us only if we constantly strive to understand the scientific relationships between space, our atmosphere, land, oceans, and people, and learn how to engineer inclusive decisions about our global future. Our hope for the Philippines is that with the right formula for investment and collaboration in scientific research, our hazard-prone country will become the showcase for how science can truly transform development.

Imelda V. Abano, founder and president of the Philippine Network of Environmental Journalists, is reporting from Manila.

*Shell is sponsor of National Geographic’s Great Energy Challenge initiative. National Geographic maintains autonomy over content.

Related Topics

• CLIMATE CHANGE
• OBSERVATORIES
• PEOPLE AND CULTURE
• AIR POLLUTION
• NATURAL DISASTERS
• TEMPERATURE

Extreme weather is coming for our homes. Experts weigh in on how to prepare.

As extreme weather ramps up, animal rescuers are struggling to save our pets

How warm oceans supercharge deadly hurricanes

Here’s what extreme heat does to the body

The link between extreme weather and climate change has never been more clear

• Environment
• Paid Content

History & Culture

• History & Culture
• Terms of Use
• Privacy Policy
• Your US State Privacy Rights
• Children's Online Privacy Policy
• Interest-Based Ads
• About Nielsen Measurement
• Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information
• Nat Geo Home
• Attend a Live Event
• Book a Trip
• Inspire Your Kids
• Shop Nat Geo
• Visit the D.C. Museum
• Learn About Our Impact
• Support Our Mission
• Advertise With Us
• Customer Service
• Renew Subscription
• Manage Your Subscription
• Work at Nat Geo
• Sign Up for Our Newsletters
• Contribute to Protect the Planet

Copyright © 1996-2015 National Geographic Society Copyright © 2015-2024 National Geographic Partners, LLC. All rights reserved

Filipinos, how are you adapting to climate change? You ask, we answer

Lucille l. sering.

Climate change is definitely upon us.  You don’t need to have a scientific mind to realize this, as recent natural calamities have shown in the Philippines, which also swept through some parts of Southeast Asia causing hundreds of casualties and losses to the economy: Typhoons Ondoy (International name: Ketsana) and Pepeng (Parma) in 2009 that flooded Metro Manila; Sendong (Washi) in 2011 which was recognized as the world’s deadliest storm in 2011; and Pablo (Bopha) in 2012.  Certainly, this is a little discomforting and makes us a little bit apprehensive about our future. To lessen our anxiety about this phenomenon, it helps to ask questions and get answers. It’s also good to know if something is being done to address the problem – and know that it is being done right.

The Aquino government has been very aggressive in its approach to address the problem of climate change.  It staffed the Climate Change Commission  (CCC) and made it functional. The CCC coordinates and provides oversight and policy advice on programs and projects on climate change. It is also tasked to craft the National Strategic Framework on Climate Change and the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP). The latter serves as the country’s roadmap to effectively deal with the problem. The CCC also takes a strong stand in international negotiations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

To give more teeth to the government’s efforts to adapt to climate change, another law was passed creating the People’s Survival Fund (PSF). With an initial fund of P1 billion pesos (equivalent to US25 million), the special fund will be used for climate change adaptation programs and projects at the local level.

To ensure that the government stays on the right path, through the Climate Change Commission and the Department of Budget and Management, it has requested the World Bank to undertake a study to review government expenditures related to climate change and institutions with mandates to address climate change.

The study called the Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review or CPEIR, also provides a general backdrop of projected increases in global temperature and its corresponding effects:

• Globally, since 1950, ocean temperature increased by about 0.09 o C
• Sea levels have been rising by 15-20 cm from pre-industrial levels with the rate nearly doubling from that of the past century.
• Industrial activity was non-existent in the Philippines during this period and any GHG emission could only come from agricultural and other normal processes. However, as a small and archipelagic country, the Philippines is highly vulnerable to sea-level rise. The report cited a study (Dasgupta et al. 2009) which listed the cities of San Jose, Manila, Roxas and Cotabato among the top 10 most vulnerable cities in the East Asia and Pacific Region to sea-level rise.

Based on the study, climate change clearly poses a threat to human survival. It foretells of the submergence of coastal communities due to sea-level rise. It also projects the occurrence of frequent and stronger typhoons, and of prolonged, intense heat in the summers and heavy rains and flooding during rainy season. It also tells of the dire consequences of these natural catastrophes to human habitation, food supply, the degradation of ecosystem services and eventual extinction of some species. This clearly shows that climate change is a development issue that threatens the gains and economic development attained in past decades. Agriculture, for instance, which relies on a stable, regular weather pattern will be adversely affected, if such pattern is disrupted by climate change.

While the Philippines is not a major green house gas (GHG) emitter, the report projects that our country’s GHG emission will continue to increase in the years to come. This growth will be due to a growing economy, heightened urbanization, increased demand and use of energy and the expected increase in the number of vehicles, all of which are highly dependent on crude oil for energy.

Given the above, the report recommends several measures along three main lines:

• strengthening planning, execution, and financing framework for climate change
• enhancing leadership and accountability through monitoring, evaluation, and review of climate change policies and activities
• building capacity and managing change

The report, to be launched on June 25, 2013 in Manila, also calls on the government to address several barriers to effective implementation of the climate change agenda.

Meanwhile, a survey commissioned by the World Bank and conducted by the Social Weather Station finds that many Filipinos say they are now experiencing the effects of a changing climate. The survey looked into the level of knowledge of Filipinos about the impacts of climate change as well as their personal experience/s about it. We’ll soon share the results of this survey on www.worldbank.org/ph , but in the meantime, perhaps there are those who are still in the dark about how to adapt to a changing climate, or how the government is working to mitigate its effects.

If you have questions about this topic or would like to share some observations about your environment , please post them in the comments section of this blog. Join the conversation on Twitter by sending your feedback to @worldbankasia and to @CCCommissionPh with hashtag #askCCC and we'll make sure to respond to them. We hope to address all your concerns and will be selecting five of the most pressing questions and answer them in a short video called   5 Questions, 5 Minutes to be posted on www.worldbank.org/ph . Ask now!

Image courtesy of audiovisualjunkie through a Creative Commons license

• Climate Change
• Philippines
• East Asia and Pacific

Get updates from East Asia & Pacific on the Rise

Thank you for choosing to be part of the East Asia & Pacific on the Rise community!

Your subscription is now active. The latest blog posts and blog-related announcements will be delivered directly to your email inbox. You may unsubscribe at any time.

Guest blogger

Join the Conversation

• Share on mail
• comments added

By providing an email address. I agree to the Terms of Use and acknowledge that I have read the Privacy Policy .

Climate change and the common Filipino

It’s hard to think about climate change in this time of soaring unemployment, shuttered businesses, and worsened poverty. But we all have to concern ourselves with climate now, because it is no longer just some vague realm of scientists and world leaders. It has become an economic problem, one that’s already hurting all of us, especially the poor, in profound ways.

Various analyses show that climate change is widening the wealth gap, particularly making poor countries poorer. One 2019 study from Stanford University found that from 1961 to 2010, the per-person wealth in the world’s poorest countries decreased by as much as 30 percent due to global warming.

In a country like the Philippines, it’s easy to see how the dramatic change in climate has pushed individuals and communities toward economic distress. More severe and more frequent extreme weather events (e.g. typhoons, floods, and droughts) wreak havoc on homes, livelihoods, and local economies. With the increasing unpredictability of these events, poorer, less adaptable communities become more exposed and less resilient.

Not only does climate change inflict costly damage and destroy livelihoods, it also threatens our food security. Our agriculture sector takes a hit with every flood and drought, while our aquatic food sources suffer from the warming and acidification of marine habitats. In addition, vector-borne diseases such as dengue find more conducive environments in warmer tropical climates like ours.

All these have domino effects on the day-to-day life of the average Filipino, including food access, health and medical care, productivity, childcare and education, and more.

It is high time to think of climate change as an economic issue, and for Filipinos to include this issue in political (not partisan) decision-making.

How is climate response a political decision? For so long, the narrative on climate change focused on the responsibility of the individual: Each person must choose eco-friendly products, conserve energy, plant trees, and so on. It is clear now that individual action can only go so far; without concrete policy from governments and political will to effect meaningful solutions, our individual actions can only scratch the surface of the issue.

Fr. Jett Villarin, one of the country’s foremost climate scientists and who has worked with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, emphasized this in a briefing last week: “Climate action cannot just be individual. It has to be organized, it has to be collective… We need good policies, we need good governance.”

In terms of climate, good governance involves national and local government leaders who listen to scientists in crafting climate laws and regulations—and actually enact them.

So far, environmental laws in the country have been feebly implemented. For example, the Ecological Solid Waste Management Act has barely put a stop to open dumping and open burning of waste, and the Revised Forestry Code has not deterred illegal lumber-cutters even in protected forests.

Further, good climate governance entails not only the mitigation of global warming factors but also adaptation strategies for citizens already living in a warmer world. As we are now experiencing the effects of climate change, how can we adapt? Adaptation strategies include disaster risk management, water utility management, protection of ecosystems, and support for sustainable agriculture.

Our local and national government leaders have to hear our strong public demand for effectual climate governance. Besides participating in visible advocacy, one of the ways to express our demand is through our vote. Already, we are seeing who among our politicians have included climate action in their priorities, who have failed their climate promises, and who have shown no regard at all for the climate crisis.

We, the common Filipino, must own the issue of climate change. It is not just scientists and academics who perceive its effects. It is us who are burdened economically, immensely, by the shortage of climate action.

Subscribe to our daily newsletter

—————

[email protected]

Fearless views on the news

Disclaimer: Comments do not represent the views of INQUIRER.net. We reserve the right to exclude comments which are inconsistent with our editorial standards. FULL DISCLAIMER

© copyright 1997-2024 inquirer.net | all rights reserved.

We use cookies to ensure you get the best experience on our website. By continuing, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. To find out more, please click this link.

Content Search

Philippines

Philippines: Country Climate and Development Report 2022

Attachments.

Stronger Climate Action Will Support Sustainable Recovery and Accelerate Poverty Reduction in the Philippines

MANILA, November 09, 2022 – Climate change is exacting a heavy toll on Filipinos’ lives, properties, and livelihoods, and left unaddressed, could hamper the country’s ambition of becoming an upper middle-income country by 2040. However, the Philippines has many of the tools and instruments required to reduce damages substantially, according to the World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for the Philippines, released today.

With 50 percent of its 111 million population living in urban areas, and many cities in coastal areas, the Philippines is vulnerable to sea level rise. Changes due to the variability and intensity of rainfall in the country and increased temperatures will affect food security and the safety of the population.

Multiple indices rank the Philippines as one of the countries most affected by extreme climate events. The country has experienced highly destructive typhoons almost annually for the past 10 years. Annual losses from typhoons have been estimated at 1.2 percent of GDP.

Climate action in the Philippines must address both extreme and slow-onset events. Adaptation and mitigation actions, some of which are already underway in the country, would reduce vulnerability and future losses if fully implemented.

“Climate impacts threaten to significantly lower the country’s GDP and the well-being of Filipinos by 2040. However, policy actions and investments – principally to protect valuable infrastructure from typhoons and to make agriculture more resilient through climate-smart measures -- could reduce these negative climate impacts by two-thirds,” said World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific, Manuela V. Ferro.

The private sector has a crucial role to play in accelerating the adoption of green technologies and ramping up climate finance by working with local financial institutions and regulators.

“ The investments needed to undertake these actions are substantial, but not out of reach, ” said IFC Acting Vice President for Asia and the Pacific, John Gandolfo . “ The business leaders and bankers who embrace climate as a business opportunity and offer these low-carbon technologies, goods and services will be the front runners of our future. ”

The report also undertakes an in-depth analysis of challenges and opportunities for climate-related actions in agriculture, water, energy, and transport. Among the recommendations are:

• Avoiding new construction in flood-prone areas.
• Improving water storage to reduce the risk of damaging floods and droughts. This will also increase water availability.
• Extending irrigation in rainfed areas and promoting climate-smart agriculture practices such as Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD).
• Making social protection programs adaptive and scalable to respond to climate shocks.
• Removing obstacles that private actors face in scaling investments in renewable energy.
• Ensuring new buildings are energy efficient and climate resilient.

Many climate actions will make the Philippines more resilient while also contributing to mitigating climate change.

“The Philippines would benefit from an energy transition towards more renewable energy. Accelerated decarbonization would reduce electricity costs by about 20 percent below current levels which is good for the country’s competitiveness and would also dramatically reduce air pollution,” said Ferro.

Even with vigorous adaptation efforts, climate change will affect many people. Some climate actions may also have adverse effects on particular groups, such as workers displaced by the move away from high-emission activities. The report recommends that the existing social protection system in the country be strengthened and scaled up to provide support to affected sectors and groups.

World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports : The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are new core diagnostic reports that integrate climate change and development considerations. They will help countries prioritize the most impactful actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support the low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector, and development partners and enable engagements with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs will feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements, and operations to help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action.

• 10 Things You Should Know About the World Bank Group’s First Batch of Country Climate and Development Reports
• CCDR Video link

PRESS RELEASE NO: 2023/025/EAP

In Washington: Kym Smithies [email protected]

In Manila: David Llorito [email protected]

Related Content

Philippines typhoon haiyan response - appeal phl131 revision 1, humanitarian implementation plan (hip) philippines (echo/phl/bud/2013/91000) last update: 17/12/2013 version 4, act alliance appeal: typhoon haiyan response - phl131, typhoons ondoy and pepeng: post-disaster needs assessment.

[Hot Off The Press] Typhoons: Climate, Society, and History in the Philippines

13 Mar 2024 | Ateneo University Press

New Release from Ateneo Press Typhoons explores the country’s stormy relationship with natural disasters

Typhoons have always been part of Philippine reality. When a typhoon enters the country, devastation always ensues. Renowned historian James Warren asks the question: “Why has the archipelago been unable to circumvent this fate?” A new release from the Ateneo Press, Typhoons: Climate, Society, and History in the Philippines weaves together a multidisciplinary perspective on the complex interactions between typhoons and Philippine society across centuries. 

James Warren has spent five decades unearthing neglected pieces of Southeast Asian histories from the depths of the past. Typhoons is a groundbreaking testament to his keen ability to examine historical phenomena from above and below. In this book, readers journey through Philippine history as shaped by cyclonic storms, weathered by generations since the pre-Hispanic era. Warren discusses the lesser-known indigenous ways of typhoon adaptation—relating the role of colonization in poor prevention, management, and environmental degradation that exacerbates typhoon-related destruction in the present. The final chapter enumerates the urgent societal changes needed so the country may survive the typhoons of the future. 

Walden Bello, author of Counterrevolution: The Global Rise of the Far Right, emphasizes one of the key insights of the book: “Hazards are natural, disasters are not.” He continues, “With climate change, promising more and more super-typhoons, Warren’s contention that development programs, neoliberal policies, and the rising inequality they have brought in their train, have made the country less resilient and more vulnerable to catastrophes is indisputable.”

Mary Racelis from the Institute of Philippine Culture in Ateneo de Manila University praises the author’s investigation of the fluid boundaries between natural and social sciences–“Warren enables us to go beyond simply describing the Philippines as the world’s most typhoon-affected country. His extraordinary account helps us understand what typhoons mean to us as a people.”

Typhoons successfully argues that human history must be seen as intrinsically linked with environmental changes, and vice versa. It is a valuable resource not only for scholars and students but for all concerned citizens who want a deeper understanding of the disasters of yesterday and today—with hope for a future beyond living in the eye of the storm. 

About the Author

James Francis Warren is an emeritus professor of modern Southeast Asian history at Murdoch University, Perth, Western Australia. He is an award-winning historian who has published numerous monographs, journal articles, and book chapters. His books include The Sulu Zone, 1768-1898: The Dynamics of External Trade, Slavery and Ethnicity in the Transformation of a Southeast Asian Maritime State (eds. 1981, 2007, and 2021); Iranun and Balangingi: Globalisation, Maritime Raiding, and the Birth of Ethnicity (2002); Pirates, Prostitutes, and Pullers: Explorations in the Ethno and Social History of Southeast Asia (2008); Rickshaw Coolie: A People’s History of Singapore, 1880–1940 (1986 and 2003); and Ah Ku and Karayuki San: Prostitution in Singapore, 1870–1940 (1993 and 2003). He lives in Perth, with his wife, Carol, an anthropologist, and daughter, Kristin, a wildlife, zoological, and conservation medicine specialist.

Category: History

Language: English

Price: PHP 1,295

The book is now available! You can purchase it at the Ateneo Press Bookshop in Bellarmine Hall or official online shops: Shopee and Lazada . 

Recent News

Resilience and the power of gratitude: meet lance gill mendoza tolentino, the asmph valedictorian of 2024.

30 Aug 2024

The Permanent Court of Arbitration: Expanding Its Reach for Global Justice and Peace

Senior high school admission for sy 2025-2026 opens 2 sept 2024, revisit the postwar art scene with "a synergy of ventures" at the ateneo art gallery.

29 Aug 2024

Call for Food Concessionaires for AGS' Feast of the Holy Guardian Angels Fiesta

Ateneo gsb open its doors to applicants thru its open house, polyu students' service-learning at luwalhati ng maynila home for the aged, last call: 1 day left to apply for startup wars 2024, ateneo de manila university hosts inaugural overseas edition of prestigious design thinking | user experience (dt|ux) regional summit, call for concessionaires: feast of the holy guardian angels fiesta, you may also like these articles.

August 30, 2024

The application period for Ateneo de Manila Senior High School Grade 11 SY 2025-2026 will begin on 2 September 2024. Updates regarding the Senior High

August 29, 2024

In commemoration of the Fernando Zóbel Birth Centennial, the Ateneo Art Gallery (AAG) and the Embassy of Spain in the Philippines present A Synergy of

27 August 2024 Dear AGS Community, Greetings! The Ateneo de Manila Grade School will celebrate the annual Feast of the Holy Guardian Angels from 26

Last July 27, Ateneo GSB opened its doors to Applicants or those who are interested in the school or getting to know its programs through

From 22 to 27 May 2024, students from the Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU) - School of Nursing visited Luwalhati ng Maynila Home for the

29 August 2024 Dear Prospective Bazaar Concessionaire, The Ateneo de Manila Grade School will celebrate its Feast of the Holy Guardian Angels by holding the

Modal title