investor presentation hdfc ltd

HDFC Bank: Negatives Are Priced In

• I expect HDFC Bank to report a flat net interest margin and a weaker rate of loan growth for the near future.
• HDB's unappealing prospects are reflected in its valuations, which are already discounted based on peer and historical comparisons.
• A Hold rating is awarded to HDFC Bank stock after looking at the company's prospects and the stock's valuations.
• Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Asia Value & Moat Stocks. Learn More »

Elevator Pitch

HDFC Bank Limited ( NYSE: HDB ) is rated as a Hold. The focus of my previous April 10, 2023 write-up was the evaluation of HDFC Bank's key metrics for the final quarter of fiscal 2023 (YE March 31, 2024).

This latest update highlights HDB's financial prospects and the stock's valuations. My view is that HDFC Bank will report a more moderate pace of loan growth and modest net interest margin expansion in the short term. But the stock is already trading at a discount to its peer and historical average based on the P/E valuation metric. Therefore, I have made the choice to maintain my existing Hold rating for HDB, taking into consideration both its outlook and valuation metric.

Net Interest Margin Outlook

A stockbroker from India known as B&K Securities recently published a research report (not publicly available) on June 4 titled "Trinity India 2024 Post Conference Notes." In this report, B&K Securities detailed takeaways from HDFC Bank and other Indian corporates which took part in the brokerage's latest May 29-31 investor conference.

According to B&K Securities' June 4 report, HDB emphasized at the 2024 Trinity India conference that it "will not pursue growth for its own sake or base its strategy solely on margin targets." These management comments from HDFC Bank draw attention to its growth prospects and margin outlook. I will touch on HDFC Bank's net interest margin in this section, and write about the bank's loan growth in the subsequent section.

Earlier, I mentioned about HDB's "merger with its parent, HDFC Limited" in my April 10, 2023 article. Following the conclusion of the merger, HDFC Bank's net interest margin has remained stable at 3.4% for three straight quarters running between Q2 FY 2024 and Q4 FY 2024 (January 1, 2024 to March 31, 2024). As a comparison, HDB's net interest margin was a comparatively higher 4.1% in Q1 FY 2024 prior to the merger, as indicated in its latest Q4 results presentation slides .

I am of the opinion that HDFC Bank's net interest margin will stay below pre-merger levels for the foreseeable future and won't increase significantly in the near term.

A key issue affecting HDB's net interest margin outlook is the bank's exceptionally high Loan-To-Deposit or LDR ratio of 104% as of end-Q4 FY 2024. As a comparison, the LDR ratio for ICICI Bank ( IBN ), HDFC Bank's peer, is relatively lower at 84% (source: S&P Capital IQ), while the rule of thumb is that an 80%-90% LDR metric for banks is "normal." As such, there is likely to be pressure on HDFC Bank to grow its deposits and lower its LDR ratio.

At the 2024 Trinity India conference, HDFC Bank acknowledged that the "transition from borrowings to deposit mobilization will impact the margin" as per B&K Securities' June 4 research report. The bank's deposits grew by a meaningful +7.5% QoQ (source: fourth quarter results presentation) in the most recent Q4 FY 2024. Therefore, it is highly probable that HDB's loan growth will slow (detailed in the next section) and its deposits will increase as part of efforts to reduce the bank's LDR ratio to a normalized level.

A recent June 14, 2024 news article published in Indian media publication Business Standard indicated that "the competition among (India's) lenders to shore up more deposits is nudging them to open fresh branches across the country." It is natural to be concerned that HDB's cost of funds will rise, and its net interest margin will be hurt, assuming that the bank pursues deposit growth in an environment of intense competition.

HDFC Bank stressed at its most recent Q4 FY 2024 results briefing (transcript sourced from S&P Capital IQ) in late-April this year that "we'll be able to maintain stability in our margins." Notably, the bank didn't set the goal of achieving a higher net interest margin and opted for stable margins instead. This provides support for my view that HDB's net interest margin is less likely to expand substantially for the short term.

Loan Growth Prospects

HDB's loan growth outlook is unfavorable.

One factor is that a slower pace of loan growth will help to bring HDFC Bank's LDR ratio down to a more reasonable level.

In the preceding section, I cited excerpts from B&K Securities' June 4, 2024 report highlighting HDB's stance that it "will not pursue growth for its own sake" and the bank's focus on "transition from borrowings to deposit mobilization." HDFC Bank delivered a modest +1.6% QoQ (source: Q4 earnings presentation) for the latest quarter or Q4 FY 2024. It is reasonable to infer from the 2024 Trinity India conference takeaways that HDB will likely take a measured approach towards loan growth with the aim of reducing its LDR metric.

Another factor is the focus on paying down liabilities will be a drag on the bank's future loan growth.

At the bank's Q4 FY 2024 earnings call, HDFC Bank stressed that the bank's "first priority is to keep reserves" so as "to repay some of the bond maturities." The bank also mentioned at its most recent fourth quarter analyst briefing that "the balance" after debt paydown is "where we will deploy on our core assets." In other words, it is clear that HDB's emphasis is on bond repayment as opposed to extending a greater number of loans.

Valuations Have Factored In Unfavorable Expectations Of Future Financial Performance

HDFC Bank's financial outlook is unimpressive, as I anticipate a slower pace of loan growth and flattish net interest margin for the bank. But the negative outlook is already reflected in HDB's valuations.

The market values HDFC Bank at a trailing P/B ratio of 2.65 times now. This represents a 12% discount as compared to its peer ICICI Bank's trailing P/E multiple of 3.02 times .

Also, HDFC Bank's current P/B metric is 19% lower than the stock's historical three-year average P/B ratio of 3.26 times as per S&P Capital IQ data.

More importantly, HDB appears to be trading near its fair valuation as per the Gordon Growth Model that divides [ROE - Perpetuity Growth Rate] by [Cost of Equity - Perpetuity Growth Rate] to arrive at a fair P/B metric. I have assumed HDFC Bank's ROE, Cost of Equity, and Perpetuity Growth Rate to be 15.4% (consensus forward one-year ROE forecast as per S&P Capital IQ), 8%, and 3%, respectively. This translates into a fair P/B ratio of 2.5 times, which is just 6% below its current P/B multiple.

In summary, HDB's valuations have already discounted the bank's unfavorable financial prospects to a considerable extent, taking into account historical and peer comparisons.

Final Thoughts

HDB's near-term prospects regarding loan expansion and net interest margin are lackluster. However, the negative outlook has been priced into HDFC Bank's valuations to a large degree based on my analysis. As such, I continue to have a Neutral view and Hold rating for HDFC Bank.

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This article was written by

The Value Pendulum is an Asian equity market specialist with over a decade of experience on both the buy and sell sides.

He is the author of the investing group Asia Value & Moat Stocks , providing ideas for value investors seeking investment opportunities listed in Asia, with a particular focus on the Hong Kong market. He hunts for deep value balance sheet bargains and wide moat stocks and provides a range of watch lists with monthly updates within his investing group.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Citi CFO Mason Says Investment-Banking Fees Likely Up 50%

Citigroup inc. said it expects banking fees to surge 50% in the second quarter compared with a year earlier on better prospects for merger advice and debt and equity underwriting..

(Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. said it expects banking fees to surge 50% in the second quarter compared with a year earlier on better prospects for merger advice and debt and equity underwriting.

By contrast, revenue from the markets business will be “flatish to down a bit," Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason said at the company’s investor day Tuesday. Net interest income excluding the markets business will be “modestly down," Mason said. 

This month, Viswas Raghavan joined Citigroup from JPMorgan Chase & Co. to lead the banking franchise, which has lagged behind competitors. Mason said in a Bloomberg TV interview that the company is keenly focused on building that business, along with its wealth-management arm.

The forecast follows a strong first quarter for Citigroup, which posted higher revenue off gains from a more active capital-markets business. So far this year, its share price has climbed more than 18%, compared with a 9% increase for the S&P 500 Financials Index.

Citigroup is pitching a turnaround story to investors after years of returns that have lagged behind its rivals. Chief Executive Officer Jane Fraser is among senior executives who gave presentations Tuesday at an investor day highlighting the bank’s most profitable business line, its services division, which helps multinationals and governments manage their risks and cash flows globally.

In Mexico, Citigroup is pressing ahead with its plans for a listing of its Banamex subsidiary in the wake of the recent election of a new president, Mason said in the interview. The bank plans an initial public offering for the business in 2025.

At JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s investor day last month, the company said it expects investment banking fees to show a percentage increase for the second quarter in the “mid teens" compared with a year earlier. For the markets business, the increase will probably be in the “mid-single digits," the company said.

--With assistance from Sonali Basak.

(Updates with CFO interview starting in third paragraph.)

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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Do you think hdfc bank limited (hdb) has a long runway for growth.

Investment management company Ave Maria recently released its “Ave Maria World Equity Fund” first quarter 2024 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here . In the first quarter, the fund returned 6.54% compared to the MSCI All Country World Index’s 8.20% return. Since its inception on April 30, 2010, the fund’s annualized return was 7.60% compared to the 9.06% annualized return for the benchmark. You can check the top 5 holdings of the fund to know its best picks in 2024.

Ave Maria World Equity Fund highlighted stocks like HDFC Bank Limited (NYSE: HDB ), in the first quarter 2024 investor letter. HDFC Bank Limited (NYSE:HDB) is a banking and financial services provider. HDFC Bank Limited’s (NYSE:HDB) one-month return was 7.84%, and its shares lost 8.29% of their value over the last 52 weeks. On June 17, 2024, HDFC Bank Limited (NYSE:HDB) stock closed at $60.94 per share with a market capitalization of $154.546 billion.

Ave Maria World Equity Fund stated the following regarding HDFC Bank Limited (NYSE:HDB) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:

"HDFC Bank Limited (NYSE:HDB) is a well-managed bank in India that has a track record of gobbling up market share and creating shareholder value. The bank has a long runway for growth, is overcapitalized, and is a highly skilled underwriter."

A customer walking into a bank branch, expressing the convenience of consumer banking services.

HDFC Bank Limited (NYSE:HDB) is not on our list of  31 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds . As per our database, 44 hedge fund portfolios held HDFC Bank Limited (NYSE:HDB) at the end of the first quarter which was 41 in the previous quarter. HDFC Bank Limited’s (NYSE:HDB) net revenues for  the quarter were at INR 396 billion, increased by 25.8% over prior year. While we acknowledge the potential of HDFC Bank Limited (NYSE:HDB) as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is as promising as NVIDIA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock .

In another article , we discussed HDFC Bank Limited (NYSE:HDB) and shared Polen Emerging Markets Growth Strategy's views on the company.  In addition, please check out our hedge fund investor letters Q1 2024  page for more investor letters from hedge funds and other leading investors.

READ NEXT:  Michael Burry Is Selling These Stocks  and  A New Dawn Is Coming to US Stocks .

Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at  Insider Monkey .

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Press Release

Presentation

June 13, 2024

Stellantis 2024 Investor Day Highlights: Powerful Differentiators, Unique Flexibility and Exceptional Returns

• Stellantis is a highly differentiated OEM lending it specific advantages against a dynamic and disruptive industry backdrop
• Standout, multi-energy technology and manufacturing flexibility enable it to leverage its competitive advantages across a wide variety of electrification adoption scenarios
• Stellantis is addressing 2024 headwinds thoughtfully and will continue to deliver industry-leading profitability, affirming its 2024 financial guidance
• Company is committed to powerful capital returns, thanks to its strong balance sheet and profitable business model 

AUBURN HILLS, MICHIGAN, U.S. – Just over three years since its formation, Stellantis has successfully established itself as a leading global automaker and, even more importantly, one that through the execution of its Dare Forward 2030 long-term strategic plan is even better positioned to face the challenges ahead. Today, at Stellantis’ first Investor Day, CEO Carlos Tavares outlined nine key strategic differentiators the Company is leveraging to unlock value and address the disruption and reinvention of the auto industry worldwide.  

Stellantis Key Strategic Differentiators  Fortified by Dare Forward 2030

Best Positioned Core

• Portfolio of 14 iconic and innovative brands covering all price points and multiple regional markets
• Global market presence combining scaled North America and Enlarged Europe regions with rapidly expanding 3rd Engine 1
• Unique multi-energy approach, spanning products, platforms, manufacturing and supply chain

Clear Profitability Advantages

• Fully scaled Pro One commercial vehicle business, with mid-to-high teens profitability, and positioned to achieve global leadership
• Ability to deliver double-digit margins across the cycle, with a < 50% break-even point
• Sustainable R&D/CAPEX efficiency, a key component of a powerful capital plan

Critical Speed & Agility

• Re-set and re-launch of asset-light China strategy with Leapmotor, a top 3 Chinese EV startup brand in 2023
• Leveraging global reach to maximize Best-Cost Country opportunities
• Rapid development of next-gen portfolio and accretive affiliate businesses

1 The “3 rd Engine” refers to an aggregation of the South America, Middle East & Africa, China and India & Asia Pacific segments.  

“Today we are a unique company by nature and a powerful carmaker by performance, well-equipped to deliver through tough times and win the long game. Our global presence, powerful technology and brand portfolio span across diverse products – ranging from quadricycles to luxury cars – giving us an enviable customer reach,” Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares told attendees.

“What consumers around the world are looking for is clean, safe and affordable mobility. This is the reason we exist. We are driving a generational shift in technology and a product wave built on multi-energy platforms and flexible operations with above-group profitability in our commercial vehicles business. Together with the activation of our uniquely aligned partnership with Leapmotor, an innovative Chinese new energy vehicle maker, we’re confident we can deliver what customers want while providing strong shareholder returns this year, and beyond.”

In addition to the CEO’s overview of the Company’s key strategic differentiators, which are unlocking exceptional opportunities, members of the Top Executive Team also gave updates spanning several areas of the business.

North American Chief Operating Officer Carlos Zarlenga discussed 2024 actions taken to restore market share, improve inventory dynamics, and capitalize on specific low emission vehicle growth opportunities in the medium-term. 

Enlarged Europe Chief Operating Officer Uwe Hochgeschurtz reviewed the Company’s multi-faceted response to rising competition from Chinese OEMs.

Middle East & Africa (MEA) Chief Operating Officer Samir Cherfan reviewed the many benefits of an increasingly localized approach to serving the MEA region, supporting the stand-out growth and profitability of Stellantis’ “Third Engine”.

Jeep ® CEO Antonio Filosa, Ram CEO Chris Feuell and Peugeot CEO Linda Jackson discussed how a powerful, strategically focused product wave expands the market opportunities of each.

Chief Engineering and Technology Officer Ned Curic, Chief Purchasing and Supply Chain Officer Maxime Picat and Chief Manufacturing Officer Arnaud Deboeuf focused on Stellantis’ extraordinary management of the value chain with flexible platforms, products and operations, with particularly valuable multi-energy capabilities, able to address different scenarios.  

Assessing Key 2024 Financial Drivers

CFO Natalie Knight also provided a financial review highlighting Stellantis’ key 2024 performance drivers and considerations.

“Stellantis is responding decisively to near-term challenges, including optimizing inventory while executing a generational product transition,” said Natalie Knight. “Despite the related short-term headwinds, we remain confident in our ability to deliver double-digit profitability, among the best OEMs in the world, while continuing to deliver exceptional capital returns to shareholders.”

Stellantis management confirmed its 2024 financial guidance and capital return plan:

• Double-digit Adjusted Operating Income (AOI) margin and positive industrial free cash flows.
• Capital Return: Delivering ≥€7.7 billion in dividends and buybacks in 2024.

CFO Natalie Knight reiterated more specific color on first and second-half expectations within the 2024 period:

• H1 outlook of 10-11% AOI margin, with industrial free cash flows visibly below the prior year period.
• Significant product launches, cost initiatives and anticipated improvement in working capital together support H2 sequential improvement opportunity in AOI and industrial free cash flow.

The Company also enhanced its capital plan in several significant ways:

• Setting target liquidity levels of 25-30% of revenues for the mid-term, shifting focus to capital efficiency and supporting strong shareholder returns.
• The Company will continue to use share buybacks and ordinary dividends to return excess cash to shareholders.
• In 2025, the Company will target the upper range of its 25-30% dividend payout policy, vs. 25% in recent years.

The 2024 Stellantis Investor Day hosted analysts, investors, and media in Auburn Hills, Michigan, U.S. For those unable to view the Stellantis Investor Day webcast, a recorded replay and the presentation material will be available under the Investors section of the Company’s corporate website: https://www.stellantis.com/en/investors/events/stellantis-investor-day-2024

About Stellantis

Stellantis N.V. (NYSE: STLA / Euronext Milan: STLAM / Euronext Paris: STLAP) is one of the world’s leading automakers aiming to provide clean, safe and affordable freedom of mobility to all. It’s best known for its unique portfolio of iconic and innovative brands including Abarth, Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Citroën, Dodge, DS Automobiles, FIAT, Jeep ® , Lancia, Maserati, Opel, Peugeot, Ram, Vauxhall, Free2move and Leasys. Stellantis is executing its Dare Forward 2030, a bold strategic plan that paves the way to achieve the ambitious target of becoming a carbon net zero mobility tech company by 2038, with single-digit percentage compensation of the remaining emissions, while creating added value for all stakeholders. For more information, visit www.stellantis.com.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

This communication contains forward-looking statements. In particular, statements regarding future events and anticipated results of operations, business strategies, the anticipated benefits of the proposed transaction, future financial and operating results, the anticipated closing date for the proposed transaction and other anticipated aspects of our operations or operating results are forward-looking statements. These statements may include terms such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “could”, “should”, “intend”, “estimate”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “remain”, “on track”, “design”, “target”, “objective”, “goal”, “forecast”, “projection”, “outlook”, “prospects”, “plan”, or similar terms. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Rather, they are based on Stellantis’ current state of knowledge, future expectations and projections about future events and are by their nature, subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. They relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur or exist in the future and, as such, undue reliance should not be placed on them.

Actual results may differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including: the ability of Stellantis to launch new products successfully and to maintain vehicle shipment volumes; changes in the global financial markets, general economic environment and changes in demand for automotive products, which is subject to cyclicality; Stellantis’ ability to successfully manage the industry-wide transition from internal combustion engines to full electrification; Stellantis’ ability to offer innovative, attractive products and to develop, manufacture and sell vehicles with advanced features including enhanced electrification, connectivity and autonomous-driving characteristics; Stellantis’ ability to produce or procure electric batteries with competitive performance, cost and at required volumes; Stellantis’ ability to successfully launch new businesses and integrate acquisitions; a significant malfunction, disruption or security breach compromising information technology systems or the electronic control systems contained in Stellantis’ vehicles; exchange rate fluctuations, interest rate changes, credit risk and other market risks; increases in costs, disruptions of supply or shortages of raw materials, parts, components and systems used in Stellantis’ vehicles; changes in local economic and political conditions; changes in trade policy, the imposition of global and regional tariffs or tariffs targeted to the automotive industry, the enactment of tax reforms or other changes in tax laws and regulations; the level of governmental economic incentives available to support the adoption of battery electric vehicles; the impact of increasingly stringent regulations regarding fuel efficiency requirements and reduced greenhouse gas and tailpipe emissions; various types of claims, lawsuits, governmental investigations and other contingencies, including product liability and warranty claims and environmental claims, investigations and lawsuits; material operating expenditures in relation to compliance with environmental, health and safety regulations; the level of competition in the automotive industry, which may increase due to consolidation and new entrants; Stellantis’ ability to attract and retain experienced management and employees; exposure to shortfalls in the funding of Stellantis’ defined benefit pension plans; Stellantis’ ability to provide or arrange for access to adequate financing for dealers and retail customers and associated risks related to the operations of financial services companies; Stellantis’ ability to access funding to execute its business plan; Stellantis’ ability to realize anticipated benefits from joint venture arrangements; disruptions arising from political, social and economic instability; risks associated with Stellantis’ relationships with employees, dealers and suppliers; Stellantis’ ability to maintain effective internal controls over financial reporting; developments in labor and industrial relations and developments in applicable labor laws; earthquakes or other disasters; risks and other items described in Stellantis’ Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2023 and Current Reports on Form 6-K and amendments thereto filed with the SEC; and other risks and uncertainties.

Any forward-looking statements contained in this communication speak only as of the date of this document and Stellantis disclaims any obligation to update or revise publicly forward-looking statements. Further information concerning Stellantis and its businesses, including factors that could materially affect Stellantis’ financial results, is included in Stellantis’ reports and filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and AFM.

• HDFC LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY LTD.
• SECTOR : BANKING AND FINANCE
• INDUSTRY : LIFE INSURANCE

HDFC Life Insurance Company Ltd.

NSE: HDFCLIFE | BSE: 540777

/100 Valuation Score : 32 /100 Momentum Score : 48 /100 "> Mid-range Performer

601.20 2.85 ( 0.48 %)

52W Low on Jun 04, 2024

5.2M NSE+BSE Volume

NSE 18 Jun, 2024 3:31 PM (IST)

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HDFC Life Insurance Company Ltd. Earnings Conference Call