example of critical risk in business plan

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Business Plan 101: Critical Risks and Problems

When starting a business, it is understood that there are risks and problems associated with development. The business plan should contain some assumptions about these factors. If your investors discover some unstated negative factors associated with your company or its product, then this can cause some serious questions about the credibility of your company and question the monetary investment. If you are up front about identifying and discussing the risks that the company is undertaking, then this demonstrates the experience and skill of the management team and increase the credibility that you have with your investors.  It is never a good idea to try to hide any information that you have in terms of risks and problems.

Identifying the problems and risks that must be dealt with during the development and growth of the company is expected in the business plan. These risks may include any risk related to the industry, risk related to the company, and risk related to its employees. The company should also take into consideration the market appeal of the company, the timing of the product or development, and how the financing of the initial operations is going to occur. Some things that you may want to discuss in your plan includes: how cutting costs can affect you, any unfavorable industry trends, sales projections that do not meet the target, costs exceeding estimates, and other potential risks and problems.  The list should be tailored to your company and product. It is a good idea to include an idea of how you will react to these problems so your investors see that you have a plan.

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Uncovering Hidden Risks: A Comprehensive Guide to Business Plan Risk Analysis

A modern business plan that will lead your business on the road to success must have another critical element. That element is a part where you will need to cover possible risks related to your small business. So, you need to focus on  managing risk  and use  risk management processes  if you want to succeed as an entrepreneur.

How can you manage risks?

You can always plan and  predict  future things in a certain way that will happen, but your impact is not always in your hands. There are many  external factors  when it comes to the business world. They will always influence the realization of your plans. Not only the realization but also the results you will achieve in implementing the specific plan. Because of that, you need to look at these factors through the prism of the risk if you want to implement an appropriate management process while implementing your business plan.

By conducting a thorough risk analysis, you can manage risks by identifying potential threats and uncertainties that could impact your business. From market fluctuations and regulatory changes to competitive pressures and technological disruptions, no risk will go unnoticed. With these insights, you can develop contingency plans and implement risk mitigation strategies to safeguard your business’s interests.

This guide will provide practical tips and real-life examples to illustrate the importance of proper risk analysis. Whether you’re a startup founder preparing a business plan or a seasoned entrepreneur looking to reassess your risk management approach, this guide will equip you with the knowledge and tools to navigate the complex landscape of business risks.

Why is Risk Analysis Important for Business Planning?

Risk analysis is essential to business planning as it allows you to proactively identify and assess potential risks that could impact your business objectives. When you conduct a comprehensive risk analysis, you can gain a deeper understanding of the threats your business may face and can take proactive measures to mitigate them.

One of the key benefits of risk analysis is that it enables you to prioritize risks based on their potential impact and likelihood of occurrence . This helps you allocate resources effectively and develop contingency plans that address the most critical risks.

Additionally, risk analysis allows you to identify opportunities that may arise from certain risks , enabling you to capitalize on them and gain a competitive advantage.

It is important to adopt a systematic approach to effectively analyze risks in your business plan. This involves identifying risks across various market, operational, financial, and legal areas. By considering risks from multiple perspectives, you can develop a holistic understanding of your business’s potential challenges.

What is a Risk for Your Small Business?

In dictionaries, the risk is usually defined as:

The possibility of dangerous or bad consequences becomes true .

When it comes to businesses,  entrepreneurs , or in this case, the business planning process, it is possible that some aspects of the business plan will not be implemented as planned. Such a situation could have dangerous or harmful consequences for your small business.

It is simple. If you don’t implement something you have in your business plan, there will be some negative consequences for your small business.

Here is how you can  write the business plan in 30 steps .

Types of Risks in Business Planning

When conducting a business risk assessment for your business plan, it is essential to consider various types of risks that could impact your venture. Here are some common types of risks to be aware of:

1. Market risks

These risks arise from fluctuations in the market, including changes in consumer preferences, economic conditions, and industry trends. Market risks can impact your business’s demand, pricing, and market share.

2. Operational risk

Operational risk is associated with internal processes, systems, and human resources. These risks include equipment failure, supply chain disruptions, employee errors, and regulatory compliance issues.

3. Financial risks

Financial risks pertain to managing financial resources and include factors such as cash flow volatility, debt levels, currency fluctuations, and interest rate changes.

4. Legal and regulatory risks

Legal and regulatory risks arise from changes in laws, regulations, and compliance requirements. Failure to comply with legal and regulatory obligations can result in penalties, lawsuits, and reputational damage.

5. Technological risks

Technological risks arise from rapid technological advancements and the potential disruptions they can cause your business. These risks include cybersecurity threats, data breaches, and outdated technology infrastructure.

Basic Characteristics of Risk

Before you start with the development of your small  business risk  management process, you will need to know and consider the essential characteristics of the possible risk for your company.

What are the basic characteristics of a possible risk?

The risk for your company is partially unknown.

Your  entrepreneurial work  will be too easy if it is easy to predict possible risks for your company. The biggest problem is that the risk is partially unknown. Here we are talking about the future, and we want to prepare for that future. So, the risk is partially unknown because it will possibly appear in the future, not now.

The risk to your business will change over time.

Because your businesses operate in a highly dynamic environment, you cannot expect it to be something like the default. You cannot expect the risk to always exist in the same shape, form, or consequence for your company.

You can predict the risk.

It is something that, if we want, we can predict through a  systematic process . You can easily predict the risk if you install an appropriate risk management process in your small business.

The risk can and should be managed.

You can always focus your resources on eliminating or reducing risk in the areas expected to appear.

Risk Management Process You Should Implement

The risk management process cannot be seen as static in your company. Instead of that, it must be seen as an interactive process in which information will continuously be updated and analyzed. You and your small business members will act on them, and you will review all risk elements in a specified period.

Adopting a systematic approach to identifying and assessing risks in your business plan is crucial. Here are some steps to consider:

1. Risk Identification

First, you must identify risk areas . Ask and respond to the following questions:

• What are my company’s most significant risks?
• What are the risk types I will need to follow?

In business, identifying risk areas is the process of pinpointing potential threats or hazards that could negatively impact your business’s ability to conduct operations, achieve business objectives, or fulfill strategic goals.

Just as meteorologists use data to predict potential storms and help us prepare, you can use risk identification to foresee possible challenges and create plans to deal with them.

Risk can arise from various sources, such as financial uncertainty, legal liabilities, strategic management errors, accidents, natural disasters, and even pandemic situations. Natural disasters can not be predicted or avoided, but you can prepare if they appear.

For example, a retail business might identify risks like fluctuating market trends, supply chain disruptions, cybersecurity threats, or changes in consumer behavior. As you can see, the main risk areas are related to types of risk: market, financial, operational, legal and regulatory, and technological risks.

You can also use business model elements to start with something concrete:

• Value proposition,
• Customers ,
• Customers relationships ,
• Distribution channels,
• Key resources and
• Key partners.

It is not necessarily that there will be risk in all areas and that the risk will be with the same intensity for all areas. So, based on your business environment, the industry in which your business operates, and the business model, you will need to determine in which of these areas there is a possible risk.

Also, you must stay informed about external factors impacting your business, such as industry trends, economic conditions, and regulatory changes. This will help you identify emerging risks and adapt your risk management strategies accordingly.

The idea for this step is to create a table where you will have identified potential risks in each important area of your business.

2. Risk Profiling

Conduct a detailed analysis of each identified risk, including its potential impact on your business objectives and the likelihood of occurrence. This will help you develop a comprehensive understanding of the risks you face.

Qualitative Risk Analysis

The qualitative risk analysis process involves assessing and prioritizing risks based on ranking or scoring systems to classify risks into low, medium, or high categories. For this analysis, you can use customer surveys or interviews.

Qualitative risk analysis is quick, straightforward, and doesn’t require specialized statistical knowledge to conduct a business risk assessment. The main negative side is its subjectivity, as it relies heavily on thinking about something or expert judgment.

This method is best suited for initial risk assessments or when there is insufficient quantitative analysis data .

For example, if we consider the previously identified risk of a sudden shift in consumer preferences, a qualitative analysis might rate its likelihood as 7 out of 10 and its impact as 8 out of 10, placing it in the high-priority quadrant of our risk matrix. But, qualitative analysis can also use surveys and interviews where you can ask open questions and use the qualitative research process to make this scaling. This is much better because you want to lower the subjectivism level when doing business risk assessment.

Quantitative Risk Analysis

On the other side, the quantitative risk analysis method involves numerical and statistical techniques to estimate the probability and potential impact of risks. It provides more objective and detailed information about risks.

Quantitative risk analysis can provide specific, data-driven insights, making it easier to make informed decisions and allocate resources effectively. The negative side of this method is that it can be time-consuming, complex, and requires sufficient data.

You can use this approachfor more complex projects or when you need precise data to inform decisions, especially after a qualitative analysis has identified high-priority risks.

For example , for the risk of currency exchange rate fluctuations, a quantitative analysis might involve analyzing historical exchange rate data to calculate the probability of a significant fluctuation and then using your financial data to estimate the potential monetary impact.

Both methods play crucial roles in effectively managing risks. Qualitative risk analysis helps to identify and prioritize risks quickly, while quantitative analysis provides detailed insights for informed decision-making.

3. Business Risk Assessment Matrix

Once you have identified potential risks and analyzed their likelihood and potential impact, you can create a business risk assessment matrix to evaluate each risk’s likelihood and impact. This matrix will help you prioritize risks and allocate resources accordingly.

A business risk assessment matrix, sometimes called a probability and impact matrix, is a tool you can use to assess and prioritize different types of risks based on their likelihood (probability) and potential damage (impact). Here’s a step-by-step process to create one:

• Step 1: Begin by listing out your risks . For our example, let’s consider four of the risks we identified earlier: a sudden shift in consumer preferences (Market Risk), currency exchange rate fluctuations (Financial Risk), an increase in the minimum wage (Legal), and cybersecurity threats (Technological Risk).
• Step 2: Determine the likelihood of each risk occurring . In the process of risk profiling, we’ve determined that a sudden shift in consumer preferences is highly likely, currency exchange rate fluctuations are moderately likely, an increase in the minimum wage, and cybersecurity threats are less likely but still possible.
• Step 3: Assess the potential impact of each risk on your business if it were to occur . In our example, we might find that a sudden shift in consumer preferences could have a high impact, currency exchange rate fluctuations a moderate impact, an increase in minimum wage minor impact, and cybersecurity threats a high impact.
• Step 4: Plot these risks on your risk matrix . The vertical axis represents the likelihood (high to low), and the horizontal axis represents the consequences (high to low).

By visualizing these risks in a risk assessment matrix format, you can more easily identify which risks require immediate attention and which ones might need long-term strategies.

4. Develop Risk Indicators for Each Risk You Have Identified

The question is, how will you measure the business risks for your company?

Risk indicators are metrics used to measure and predict potential threats to your business. Simply, a risk indicator is a measure that should tell you whether the risk appears or not in a particular area you have defined previously. They act like a business’s early warning system. When these indicators change, it’s a signal that the risk level may be increasing.

For example, for distribution channels, an indicator can be a delay in delivery for a minimum of three days. This indicator will tell you something is wrong with that channel, and you must respond appropriately.

Now, let’s consider some risk indicators for the risks we have already identified and analyzed:

If you conduct all the steps until now, you can have a similar table with risk indicators in your business plan. You should monitor these indicators regularly, and if you notice a significant change, such as a drop in sales or an increase in attempted breaches, it’s time to investigate and take some action steps. This might involve updating your product line, hedging against currency risk, budgeting for higher wages, or improving your cybersecurity measures.

Remember, risk indicators can’t predict the future with certainty. But they can give you valuable insights that can help you prepare for potential threats.

5. Define Possible Action Steps

The question is, what can you do regarding the risk if the risk indicator tells you that there is a potential risk?

Once the risk has appeared and is located, it is time to take concrete action steps. The goals of this step are not only to reduce or eliminate the impact of the risk for your company but also to prevent them in the future and reduce or eliminate their influence on the business operations or the execution of your business plan.

For example, for distribution channels with delivery delayed more than three days, possible activities can be the following:

• Apologizing to the customers for the delay,
• Determining the reasons for the delay,
• Analysis of the reasons,
• Removing the reasons,
• Consideration of alternative distribution channels, etc.

In this part of the business plan for each risk area and indicator, try to standardize all possible actions. You can not expect that they will be final. But, you can cover some basic guidelines that must be implemented if the risk appears. Here is an example of how this part will look in your business plan related to risks we have already identified through the risk assessment process.

6. Monitoring

Because this risk management process is dynamic , you must apply the monitoring process. In such a way, you can ensure the elimination of a specific kind of risk in the future, and you will allocate your resources to new possible risks.

After implementing the actions, you need to ask yourself the following questions:

• Are the actions taken regarding the risk the proper measures?
• Can you improve something regarding the risk management process? Is there a need for new risk indicators?

Techniques and Tools for Business Plan Risk Assessment

Various risk analysis methods, techniques, and tools are available to conduct an effective risk analysis for your business plan. Here are some commonly used ones:

1. SWOT analysis

A SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis can help you identify internal strengths and weaknesses and external opportunities and threats. This analysis provides valuable insights into possible business risks and opportunities.

2. PESTEL analysis

A PESTEL (Political, Economic, Sociocultural, Technological, Environmental, Legal) analysis assesses the external factors that could impact your business. This analysis will help you identify risks and opportunities arising from these factors.

3. Scenario analysis

Consider different scenarios that could impact your business, such as best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios, as a part of your risk assessment process. You can anticipate potential risks and develop appropriate response strategies by analyzing these scenarios.

4. Monte Carlo simulation

Monte Carlo simulation uses random sampling and probability distributions to model various scenarios and assess their potential impact on your business. This technique provides you with a more accurate understanding of risk exposure.

5. Risk register

A risk register is a risk analysis tool that helps you record and track identified risks and their relevant details, such as impact, likelihood, mitigation strategies, and responsible parties. This tool ensures that risks are appropriately managed and monitored.

6. Business Impact Analysis (BIA)

Business impact analysis helps you understand the potential effects of various disruptions on your business operations and objectives. It’s about identifying what could go wrong and understanding how it could impact your bottom line. So, you can conduct business impact analysis as a part of your risk assessment inside your business plan.

7. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)

Using FMEA in your risk assessment process, you can proactively address potential problems, ensuring your business operations run as smoothly as you planned. It’s all about preparing for the worst while striving for the best.

8. Risk-Benefit Analysis (RBA)

The risk-benefit analysis allows you to make informed decisions, balancing the potential for gain against the potential for loss. It helps you choose the best path, even when the way forward isn’t entirely clear. This tool is a systematic approach to understanding the specific business risk and benefits associated with a decision, process, or project.

9. Cost-Benefit Analysis

By conducting a cost-benefit analysis as a part of your risk assessments, you can make data-driven decisions that consider both the possible risks (costs) and rewards (benefits). This approach provides a clear picture of the potential return on investment, enabling more effective and confident decision-making.

These techniques and tools allow you to conduct a comprehensive risk analysis for your business plan.

Mitigating and Managing Risks in a Business Plan

Identifying risks in your business plan is only the first step. To ensure the success of your venture, it is crucial to develop effective risk mitigation and management strategies. Here are some critical steps to consider:

• Risk avoidance : Some risks may be too high to justify taking. In such cases, consider avoiding these risks altogether by adjusting your business plan or exploring alternative strategies.
• Risk transfer : Transferring risks to third parties, such as insurance companies or outsourcing partners, can help mitigate their impact on your business. Evaluate opportunities for risk transfer and consider appropriate insurance coverage.
• Risk reduction : Implement measures to reduce the likelihood and impact of identified risks. This may involve improving internal processes, implementing safety protocols, or diversifying your supplier base .
• Risk acceptance : Some risks may be unavoidable or negatively impact your business. In such cases, accepting the risks and developing contingency plans can help minimize their impact.

In conclusion, a comprehensive risk analysis is essential for identifying, assessing, and managing different types of risk that could impact your success.

Conducting a thorough risk analysis can safeguard your business’s interests, capitalize on opportunities, and increase your chances of long-term success.

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12 Types of Business Risks and How to Manage Them

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90% of startups fail .

Thanks to the explosion of the digital economy, business founders have plenty of opportunities that they can tap into to build a winning business.

Unfortunately, there is a myriad of challenges your new business has to navigate through. These risks are inevitable, and they are a part of life in the business world.

However, without the right plan, strategy, and instruments, your business might be drowned by these challenges.

Therefore, we have created this guide to show you how can your business utilize risk management to succeed in 2022.

There are many types of startup and business risks that entrepreneurs can expect to encounter in 2022. Most of these threats are prevalent in the infancy stages of a business.

To know what you’ll be up against, here is a breakdown of the 12 most common threats.

12 Business Risks to Plan For

1) economic risks.

Failure to acquire adequate funding for your business can damage the chances of your business succeeding.

Before a new business starts making profits, it needs to be kept afloat with money. Bills will pile up, suppliers will need payments, and your employees will be expecting their salaries.

To avoid running into financial problems sooner or later, you need to acquire enough funds to shore up your business until it can support itself.

On the side, world and business country's economic situation can change either positively or negatively, leading to a boom in purchases and opportunities or to a reduction in sales and growth.

If your business is up and running, a great way to limit the effect of negative economic changes is to maintain steady cash flow and operate under the lean business method.

Here's an article from a founder explaining how he set up a lean budget on his $400k/year online business.

2) Market Risks

Misjudging market demand is one of the primary reasons businesses fail .

To avoid falling into this trap, conduct detailed research to understand whether you will find a ready market for what you want to sell at the price you have set.

Ensure your business has a unique selling point, and make sure what you offer brings value to the buyers.

To know whether your product will suit the market, do a survey, or get opinions from friends and potential customers.

Building a Minimum Viable Product of that business idea you've had is the recommendations made by most entrepreneurs.

This site, for example, was built in just 3 weeks and launched into the market to see if there was any interest in the type of content we offered.

The site was ugly, had little content and lacked many features. Yet, +7,700 users visited it within the first week, which made us realize we should keep working on this.

90% of startups fail. Learn how to not to with our weekly guides and stories. Join 40,000+ founders.

3) Competitive Risks

Competition is a major business killer that you should be wary of.

Before you even start planning, ask yourself whether you are venturing into an oversaturated market.

Are there gaps in the market that you can exploit and make good money?

If you have an idea that can give you an edge, register it. This will prevent others from copying your product, re-innovating it, and locking you out of what you started.

Competitive risks are also those actions made by competitors that prevent a business from earning more revenue or having higher margins.

4) Execution Risks

Having an idea, a business plan, and an eager market isn’t enough to make your startup successful.

Most new companies put a lot of effort into the initial preparation and forget that the execution phase is equally important.

First, test whether you can develop your products within budget and on time. Also, check whether your product will function as intended and whether it’s possible to distribute it without taking losses.

5) Strategic Risks

Business strategies can lead to the growth or decline of a company.

Every strategy involves some risk, as time & resources are generally involved to put them into practice.

Strategic risk in the chance that an implemented strategy, therefore, results in losses.

If, for example, the Marketing Department of a company implements a content marketing strategy and a lot of months, time & money later the business doesn't see any ROI, this becomes a strategic risk.

6) Compliance Risks

Compliance risks are those losses and penalties that a business suffers for not complying with countries' and states' regulations & laws.

There are some industries that are highly-regulated so the compliance risks of businesses within them are super high.

For example, in May 2018, the EU Commission implemented the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), a law in privacy and data protection in the EU, which affected millions of websites.

Those websites that weren't adapted to comply with this new rule, were fined.

7) Operational Risks

Operational risks arise when the day-to-day running of a company fail to perform.

When processes fail or are insufficient, businesses lose customers and revenue and their reputation gets ruined.

One example can be customer service processes. Customers are becoming every day less willing to wait for support (not to mention, receive bad quality one).

If a business customer service team fails or delays to solve customer's issues, these might find their solution in the business competitors.

8) Reputational Risks

Reputational risks arise when a business acts in an immoral and discourteous way.

This led to customer complaints and distrust towards the business, which means for the company a big loss of sales and revenue.

With the rise of social networks, reputational risks have become one of the main concerns for businesses.

Virality is super easy among Twitter so a simple unhappy customer can lead to a huge bad press movement for the company.

A recent example is the Away issue with their toxic work environment, as a former employee reported in The Verge .

The issue brought lots of critics within social networks which eventually led the CEO, Steph Korey, to step aside from the startup ( she seems to be back, anyway 🤷‍♂️! ).

9) Country Risks

When a business invests in a new country, there is a high probability it won't work.

A product that is successful in one market won't necessarily be in another one, especially when people within them are so different in cultures, climates, tastes backgrounds, etc.

Country risk is the existing failure probability businesses investing in new countries have to deal with.

Changes in exchange rates, unstable economic situations and moving politics are three factors that make these country risks be even more delicate.

10) Quality Risks

When a business develops a product or service that fails to meet customers' needs and quality expectations, the chance these customers will ever buy again is low.

In this way, the business loses future sales and revenue. Not to mention that some customers will ask for refunds, increasing business costs, as well as publicly criticize the company's products, leading to bad reputation (and a viral cycle that means even less $$ for the business).

11) Human Risk

Hiring has its benefits but also its risks.

Employees themselves involve a huge risk for a business, as they become to represent the company through how they work, mistakes committed, the public says and interactions with customers & suppliers,

A way to deal with human risk is to train employees and keep a motivated workforce. Yet, the risk will continue to exist.

12) Technology Risk

Security attacks, power outrage, discontinued hardware, and software, among other technology issues, are the events that form part of the technology risk.

These issues can lead to a loss of money, time and data, which has many connections with the previously mentioned risks.

Back-ups, antivirus, control processes, and data breach plans are some of the ways to deal with this risk.

How Businesses Can Use Risk Management To Grow Business

To mitigate any future threats, you need to prepare a comprehensive risk management plan.

This plan should detail the strategy you will use to deal with the specific challenges your business will encounter. Here’s what to do.

1) Identify Risks

Every business encounters a different set of challenges.

Before mapping the risks, analyze your business and note down its key components such as critical resources, important services or products, and top talent.

2) Record Risks

Once risks have been identified, you need to assess and document the threats that can affect each component.

Identify any warning signs or triggers of that recorded risk, also.

3) Anticipate

The best way to beat a threat is to detect and prepare for it in advance.

Once you know your business can be affected by a certain scenario, develop steps that you will take to stop the risk or to blunt its effects.

4) Prioritize Risks

Not all types of business risk have the same effect. Some can bring your startup to its knees, while others will only cause minimal effects.

To keep your business alive, start by putting in place measures that protect the vital functions from the most severe and most probable risks.

5) Have a Backup Plan

For every risk scenario, have at least two plans for countering the threat before it arrives.

The strategy you put in place should be in line with the current technology and trends.

Ensure your communicate these measures with all your team members.

6) Assign Responsibilities

When communicating measures with the team, assign responsibilities for each member in case any of the recorded risks affect the business.

These members should also be responsible for controlling the risks every certain time and maintaining records about them.

What is a Business Risk?

The term "business risk" refers to the exposure businesses have to factors that can prevent them from achieving their set financial goals.

This exposure can come from a variety of situations, but they can be classified into two:

• Internal factors: The risk comes from sources within the company, and they tend to be related to human, technological, physical or operational factors, among others.
• External factors: The risk comes from regulations/changes affecting the whole country/economy.

Any of these factors led to the business being unable to return investors and stakeholders the adequate amounts.

What Is Risk Management?

Risk management is a practice where an entrepreneur looks for potential risks that their business may face, analyzes them, and takes action to counter them.

The steps you take can eliminate the threat, control it, or limit the effects.

A risk is any scenario that harms your business. Risks can emanate from a wide variety of sources such as financial problems, management errors, lawsuits, data loss, cyber-attacks, natural calamities, and theft.

The risk landscape changes constantly, therefore you need to know the latest threats.

By setting up a risk management plan, your business can save money and time, which in some cases can be the determinant to keep your startup in business.

Not to mention, on the side, that risk management plans tend to make managers feel more confident to carry out business decisions, especially the risky ones, which can put their startups in a huge competitive advantage.

Wrapping Up

Becoming your own boss is one of the most rewarding things you can do.

However, launching a business is not a walk in the park; risks and challenges lurk around every corner.

If you are planning to establish a new business come 2022, make sure you secure its future by creating a broad risk management plan.

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What is business risk?

You know about death and taxes. What about risk? Yes, risk is just as much a part of life as the other two inevitabilities. This became all the more apparent during COVID-19, as each of us had to assess and reassess our personal risk calculations as each new wave of the pandemic— and pandemic-related disruptions —washed over us. It’s the same in business: executives and organizations have different comfort levels with risk and ways to prepare against it.

Where does business risk come from? To start with, external factors can wreak havoc on an organization’s best-laid plans. These can include things like inflation , supply chain  disruptions, geopolitical upheavals , unpredictable force majeure events like a global pandemic or climate disaster, competitors, reputational  issues, or even cyberattacks .

But sometimes, the call is coming from inside the house. Companies can be imperiled by their own executives’ decisions or by leaks of privileged information, but most damaging of all, perhaps, is the risk of missed opportunities. We’ve seen it often: when companies choose not to adopt disruptive innovation, they risk losing out to more nimble competitors.

The modern era is rife with increasingly frequent sociopolitical, economic, and climate-related shocks. In 2019 alone, for example, 40 weather disasters caused damages exceeding $1 billion each . To stay competitive, organizations should develop dynamic approaches to risk and resilience. That means predicting new threats, perceiving changes in existing threats, and developing comprehensive response plans. There’s no magic formula that can guarantee safe passage through a crisis. But in situations of threat, sometimes only a robust risk-management plan can protect an organization from interruptions to critical business processes. For more on how to assess and prepare for the inevitability of risk, read on.

Learn more about McKinsey’s Risk and Resilience  Practice.

What is risk control?

Risk controls are measures taken to identify, manage, and eliminate threats. Companies can create these controls through a range of risk management strategies and exercises. Once a risk is identified and analyzed, risk controls can be designed to reduce the potential consequences. Eliminating a risk—always the preferable solution—is one method of risk control. Loss prevention and reduction are other risk controls that accept the risk but seek to minimize the potential loss (insurance is one method of loss prevention). A final method of risk control is duplication (also called redundancy). Backup servers or generators are a common example of duplication, ensuring that if a power outage occurs no data or productivity is lost.

But in order to develop appropriate risk controls, an organization should first understand the potential threats.

What are the three components to a robust risk management strategy?

A dynamic risk management plan can be broken down into three components : detecting potential new risks and weaknesses in existing risk controls, determining the organization’s appetite for risk taking, and deciding on the appropriate risk management approach. Here’s more information about each step and how to undertake them.

1. Detecting risks and controlling weaknesses

A static approach to risk is not an option, since an organization can be caught unprepared when an unlikely event, like a pandemic, strikes. So it pays to always be proactive. To keep pace with changing environments, companies should answer the following three questions for each of the risks that are relevant to their business.

• How will a risk play out over time? Risks can be slow moving or fast moving. They can be cyclical or permanent. Companies should analyze how known risks are likely to play out and reevaluate them on a regular basis.
• Are we prepared to respond to systemic risks? Increasingly, risks have longer-term reputational or regulatory consequences, with broad implications for an industry, the economy, or society at large. A risk management strategy should incorporate all risks, including systemic ones.
• What new risks lurk in the future? Organizations should develop new methods of identifying future risks. Traditional approaches that rely on reviews and assessments of historical realities are no longer sufficient.

2. Assessing risk appetite

How can companies develop a systematic way of deciding which risks to accept and which to avoid? Companies should set appetites for risk that align with their own values, strategies, capabilities, and competitive environments—as well as those of society as a whole. To that end, here are three questions companies should consider.

• How much risk should we take on? Companies should reevaluate their risk profiles frequently according to shifting customer behaviors, digital capabilities, competitive landscapes, and global trends.
• Are there any risks we should avoid entirely? Some risks are clear: companies should not tolerate criminal activity or sexual harassment. Others are murkier. How companies respond to risks like economic turmoil and climate change depend on their particular business, industry, and levels of risk tolerance.
• Does our risk appetite adequately reflect the effectiveness of our controls? Companies are typically more comfortable taking risks for which they have strong controls in place. But the increased threat of severe risks challenges traditional assumptions about risk control effectiveness. For instance, many businesses have relied on automation to increase speed and reduce manual error. But increased data breaches and privacy concerns can increase the risk of large-scale failures. Organizations, therefore, should evolve their risk profiles accordingly.

3. Deciding on a risk management approach

Finally, organizations should decide how they will respond when a new risk is identified. This decision-making  process should be flexible and fast, actively engaging leaders from across the organization and honestly assessing what has and hasn’t worked in past scenarios. Here are three questions organizations should be able to answer.

• How should we mitigate the risks we are taking? Ultimately, people need to make these decisions and assess how their controls are working. But automated control systems should buttress human efforts. Controls guided, for example, by advanced analytics can help guard against quantifiable risks and minimize false positives.
• How would we respond if a risk event or control breakdown happens? If (or more likely, when) a threat occurs, companies should be able to switch to crisis management mode quickly, guided by an established playbook. Companies with well-rehearsed crisis management capabilities weather shocks better, as we saw with the COVID-19 pandemic.
• How can we build true resilience? Resilient companies not only better withstand threats—they emerge stronger. The most resilient firms can turn fallout from crises into a competitive advantage. True resilience stems from a diversity of skills and experience, innovation, creative problem solving, and the basic psychological safety that enables peak performance.

Change is constant. Just because a risk control plan made sense last year doesn’t mean it will next year. In addition to the above points, a good risk management strategy involves not only developing plans based on potential risk scenarios but also evaluating those plans on a regular basis.

Learn more about McKinsey’s  Risk and Resilience  Practice.

What are five actions organizations can take to build dynamic risk management?

In the past, some organizations have viewed risk management as a dull, dreary topic, uninteresting for the executive looking to create competitive advantage. But when the risk is particularly severe or sudden, a good risk strategy is about more than competitiveness—it can mean survival. Here are five actions leaders can take to establish risk management capabilities .

• Reset the aspiration for risk management.  This requires clear objectives and clarity on risk levels and appetite. Risk managers should establish dialogues with business leaders to understand how people across the business think about risk, and share possible strategies to nurture informed risk-versus-return decision making—as well as the capabilities available for implementation.
• Establish agile  risk management practices.  As the risk environment becomes more unpredictable, the need for agile risk management grows. In practice, that means putting in place cross-functional teams empowered to make quick decisions about innovating and managing risk.
• Harness the power of data and analytics.  The tools of the digital revolution  can help companies improve risk management. Data streams from traditional and nontraditional sources can broaden and deepen companies’ understandings of risk, and algorithms can boost error detection and drive more accurate predictions.
• Develop risk talent for the future.  Risk managers who are equipped to meet the challenges of the future will need new capabilities and expanded domain knowledge in model risk management , data, analytics, and technology. This will help support a true understanding of the changing risk landscape , which risk leaders can use to effectively counsel their organizations.
• Fortify risk culture.  Risk culture includes the mindsets and behavioral norms that determine an organization’s relationship with risk. A good risk culture allows an organization to respond quickly when threats emerge.

How do scenarios help business leaders understand uncertainty?

Done properly, scenario planning prompts business leaders to convert abstract hypotheses about uncertainties into narratives about realistic visions of the future. Good scenario planning can help decision makers experience new realities  in ways that are intellectual and sensory, as well as rational and emotional. Scenarios have four main features  that can help organizations navigate uncertain times.

• Scenarios expand your thinking.  By developing a range of possible outcomes, each backed with a sequence of events that could lead to them, it’s possible to broaden our thinking. This helps us become ready for the range of possibilities the future might hold—and accept the possibility that change might come more quickly than we expect.
• Scenarios uncover inevitable or likely futures.  A broad scenario-building effort can also point to powerful drivers of change, which can help to predict potential outcomes. In other words, by illuminating critical events from the past, scenario building can point to outcomes that are very likely to happen in the future.
• Scenarios protect against groupthink.  In some large corporations, employees can feel unsafe offering contrarian points of view for fear that they’ll be penalized by management. Scenarios can help companies break out of this trap by providing a “safe haven” for opinions that differ from those of senior leadership and that may run counter to established strategy.
• Scenarios allow people to challenge conventional wisdom.  In large corporations in particular, there’s frequently a strong bias toward the status quo. Scenarios are a nonthreatening way to lay out alternative futures in which assumptions underpinning today’s strategy can be challenged.

Learn more about McKinsey’s Strategy & Corporate Finance  Practice.

What’s the latest thinking on risk for financial institutions?

In late 2021, McKinsey conducted survey-based research with more than 30 chief risk officers (CROs), asking about the current banking environment, risk management practices, and priorities for the future.

According to CROs, banks in the current environment are especially exposed to accelerating market dynamics, climate change, and cybercrime . Sixty-seven percent of CROs surveyed cited the pandemic as having significant impact on employees and in the area of nonfinancial risk. Most believed that these effects would diminish in three years’ time.

Looking for direct answers to other complex questions?

Climate change, on the other hand, is expected to become a larger issue over time. Nearly all respondents cited climate regulation as one of the five most important forces in the financial industry in the coming three years. And 75 percent were concerned about climate-related transition risk: financial and other risks arising from the transformation away from carbon-based energy systems.

And finally, cybercrime was assessed as one of the top risks by most executives, both now and in the future.

Learn more about the risk priorities of banking CROs here .

What is cyber risk?

Cyber risk is a form of business risk. More specifically, it’s the potential for business losses of all kinds  in the digital domain—financial, reputational, operational, productivity related, and regulatory related. While cyber risk originates from threats in the digital realm, it can also cause losses in the physical world, such as damage to operational equipment.

Cyber risk is not the same as a cyberthreat. Cyberthreats are the particular dangers that create the potential for cyber risk. These include privilege escalation (the exploitation of a flaw in a system for the purpose of gaining unauthorized access to resources), vulnerability exploitation (an attack that uses detected vulnerabilities to exploit the host system), or phishing. The risk impact of cyberthreats includes loss of confidentiality, integrity, and availability of digital assets, as well as fraud, financial crime, data loss, or loss of system availability.

In the past, organizations have relied on maturity-based cybersecurity approaches to manage cyber risk. These approaches focus on achieving a particular level of cybersecurity maturity by building capabilities, like establishing a security operations center or implementing multifactor authentication across the organization. A maturity-based approach can still be helpful in some situations, such as for brand-new organizations. But for most institutions, a maturity-based approach can turn into an unmanageably large project, demanding that all aspects of an organization be monitored and analyzed. The reality is that, since some applications are more vulnerable than others, organizations would do better to measure and manage only their most critical vulnerabilities.

What is a risk-based cybersecurity approach?

A risk-based approach is a distinct evolution from a maturity-based approach. For one thing, a risk-based approach identifies risk reduction as the primary goal. This means an organization prioritizes investment based on a cybersecurity program’s effectiveness in reducing risk. Also, a risk-based approach breaks down risk-reduction targets into precise implementation programs with clear alignment all the way up and down an organization. Rather than building controls everywhere, a company can focus on building controls for the worst vulnerabilities.

Here are eight actions that comprise a best practice for developing  a risk-based cybersecurity approach:

• fully embed cybersecurity in the enterprise-risk-management framework
• define the sources of enterprise value across teams, processes, and technologies
• understand the organization’s enterprise-wide vulnerabilities—among people, processes, and technology—internally and for third parties
• understand the relevant “threat actors,” their capabilities, and their intent
• link the controls in “run” activities and “change” programs to the vulnerabilities that they address and determine what new efforts are needed
• map the enterprise risks from the enterprise-risk-management framework, accounting for the threat actors and their capabilities, the enterprise vulnerabilities they seek to exploit, and the security controls of the organization’s cybersecurity run activities and change program
• plot risks against the enterprise-risk appetite; report on how cyber efforts have reduced enterprise risk
• monitor risks and cyber efforts against risk appetite, key cyber risk indicators, and key performance indicators

How can leaders make the right investments in risk management?

Ignoring high-consequence, low-likelihood risks can be catastrophic to an organization—but preparing for everything is too costly. In the case of the COVID-19 crisis, the danger of a global pandemic on this scale was foreseeable, if unexpected. Nevertheless, the vast majority of companies were unprepared: among billion-dollar companies in the United States, more than 50 filed for bankruptcy in 2020.

McKinsey has described the decisions to act on these high-consequence, low-likelihood risks as “ big bets .” The number of these risks is far too large for decision makers to make big bets on all of them. To narrow the list down, the first thing a company can do is to determine which risks could hurt the business versus the risks that could destroy the company. Decision makers should prioritize the potential threats that would cause an existential crisis  for their organization.

To identify these risks, McKinsey recommends using a two-by-two risk grid, situating the potential impact of an event on the whole company against the level of certainty about the impact. This way, risks can be measured against each other, rather than on an absolute scale.

Organizations sometimes survive existential crises. But it can’t be ignored that crises—and missed opportunities—can cause organizations to fail. By measuring the impact of high-impact, low-likelihood risks on core business, leaders can identify and mitigate risks that could imperil the company. What’s more, investing in protecting their value propositions can improve an organization’s overall resilience.

Articles referenced:

• “ Seizing the momentum to build resilience for a future of sustainable inclusive growth ,” February 23, 2023, Børge Brende and Bob Sternfels
• “ Data and analytics innovations to address emerging challenges in credit portfolio management ,” December 23, 2022, Abhishek Anand , Arvind Govindarajan , Luis Nario  and Kirtiman Pathak
• “ Risk and resilience priorities, as told by chief risk officers ,” December 8, 2022, Marc Chiapolino , Filippo Mazzetto, Thomas Poppensieker , Cécile Prinsen, and Dan Williams
• “ What matters most? Six priorities for CEOs in turbulent times ,” November 17, 2022, Homayoun Hatami  and Liz Hilton Segel
• “ Model risk management 2.0 evolves to address continued uncertainty of risk-related events ,” March 9, 2022, Pankaj Kumar, Marie-Paule Laurent, Christophe Rougeaux, and Maribel Tejada
• “ The disaster you could have stopped: Preparing for extraordinary risks ,” December 15, 2020, Fritz Nauck , Ophelia Usher, and Leigh Weiss
• “ Meeting the future: Dynamic risk management for uncertain times ,” November 17, 2020, Ritesh Jain, Fritz Nauck , Thomas Poppensieker , and Olivia White
• “ Risk, resilience, and rebalancing in global value chains ,” August 6, 2020, Susan Lund, James Manyika , Jonathan Woetzel , Edward Barriball , Mekala Krishnan , Knut Alicke , Michael Birshan , Katy George , Sven Smit , Daniel Swan , and Kyle Hutzler
• “ The risk-based approach to cybersecurity ,” October 8, 2019, Jim Boehm , Nick Curcio, Peter Merrath, Lucy Shenton, and Tobias Stähle
• “ Value and resilience through better risk management ,” October 1, 2018, Daniela Gius, Jean-Christophe Mieszala , Ernestos Panayiotou, and Thomas Poppensieker

Want to know more about business risk?

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How to Highlight Risks in Your Business Plan

Tallat Mahmood

5 min. read

Updated October 25, 2023

One of the areas constantly dismissed by business owners in their business plan is an articulation of the risks in the business.

This either suggests you don’t believe there to be any risks in your business (not true), or are intentionally avoiding disclosing them.

Either way, it is not the best start to have with a potential funding partner. In fact, by dismissing the risks in your business, you actually make the job of a lender or investor that much more difficult.

Why a funder needs to understand your business’s risks:

Funding businesses is all about risk and reward.

Whether it’s a lender or an investor, their key concern will be trying to balance the risks inherent in your business, versus the likelihood of a reward, typically increasing business value. An imbalance occurs when entrepreneurs talk extensively about the opportunities inherent in their business, but ignore the risks.

The fact is, all funders understand that risks exist in every business. This is just a fact of running a business. There are risks that exist with your products, customers, suppliers, and your team. From a funder’s perspective, it is important to understand the nature and size of risks that exist.

• There are two main reasons why funders want to understand business risks:

Firstly, they want to understand whether or not the key risks in your business are so fundamental to the investment proposition that it would prevent them from funding you.

Some businesses are not at  the right stage to receive external funding  and placate funder concerns. These businesses are best off dealing with key risk factors prior to seeking funding.

The second reason why lenders and investors want to understand the risk in your business is so that they can structure a funding package that works best overall, despite the risk.

In my experience, this is an opportunity that many business owners are wasting, as they are not giving funders an opportunity to structure deals suitable for them.

Here’s an example:

Assume your business is  seeking equity funding,  but has a key management role that needs to be filled. This could be a key business risk for a funder.

Highlighting this risk shows that you are aware of the appointment need, and are putting plans in place to help with this key recruit. An investor may reasonably decide to proceed with funding, but the funding will be released in stages. Some will be released immediately and the remainder will be after the key position has been filled.

The benefit of highlighting your risks is that it demonstrates to investors that you understand the danger the risks pose to your company, and are aware that it needs to be dealt with. This allows for a frank discussion to take place, which is more difficult to do if you don’t acknowledge this as a problem in the first place.

Ultimately, the starting point for most funders is that they  want  to invest in you, and  want  to validate their initial interest in you.

Highlighting your business risks will allow the funder to get to the nub of the problem, and give them a better idea of how they may structure their investment in order to make it work for both parties. If they are unsure of the risks or cannot get clear explanations from the team, it is unlikely they will be forthcoming when it comes to finding ways to make a potential deal work.

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• The right way to address business risks:

The main reason many business owners don’t talk about business risks with potential funders is because they don’t want to highlight the weaknesses in their business.

This is a fair concern to have. However, there is a right way to address business risk with funders, without turning lenders and investors off.

The solution is to focus on how you  mitigate the risks.  

In other words, what are the steps you are taking in your business as a direct reaction to the risks that you have identified? This is very powerful in easing funder fears, and in positioning you as someone who has a handle on their business.

For example, if a business risk you had identified was a high level of customer concentration, then a suitable mitigation plan would be to market your products or services targeting new clients, as opposed to focusing all efforts on one client.

Having net profit margins that are lower than average for your market would raise eyebrows and be considered a risk. In this instance, you could demonstrate to funders the steps you are putting in place over a period of time to help increase those margins to at least market norms for your niche.

The process of highlighting risks—and, more importantly, outlining key mitigating actions—not only demonstrates honesty, but also a leadership quality in solving the problems in your business. Lenders and investors want to see both traits.

• The impact on your credibility:

Any lender or investor  backs the leadership team  of a business first, and the business itself second.

This is because they realize that it is you, the management team, who will ultimately deliver value and grow the business for the benefit for all. As such, it is imperative that they have the right impression about you.

The consequence of highlighting business risks in your business plan with mitigations is that it provides funders a real insight into you as a business leader. It demonstrates that not only do you have an understanding of their need to understand risk in your business, but you also appreciate that minimizing that risk is your job.

This will have a massive impact on your credibility as a business owner and management team. This impact is more acute when compared to the hundreds of businesses they will meet that omit discussing the risks in their business.

The fact is, funders have seen enough businesses and business plans in all sectors to instinctively know what risks to expect. It’s just more telling if they hear it from you first.

• What does this mean for you going forward?

Funders rely on you to deliver on your inherent promise to add value to your business for all stakeholders. The weight of this promise becomes much stronger if they can believe in the character of the team, and that comes from your credibility.

A business plan that discusses business risks and mitigations is a much more complete plan, and will increase your chances of securing funding.

Not only that, but highlighting the risks your business faces also has a long-term impact on your character and credibility as a business leader.

Tallat Mahmood is founder of The Smart Business Plan Academy, his flagship online course on building powerful business plans for small and medium-sized businesses to help them grow and raise capital. Tallat has worked for over 10 years as a small and medium-sized business advisor and investor, and in this period has helped dozens of businesses raise hundreds of millions of dollars for growth. He has also worked as an investor and sat on boards of companies.

Table of Contents

• Why a funder needs to understand your business’s risks:

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