india in 2025 essay

india predictions for 2025

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Read 58 predictions about India in 2025, a year that will see this country experience significant change in its politics, economics, technology, culture, and environment. It’s your future, discover what you’re in for.

Quantumrun Foresight prepared this list; A trend intelligence consulting firm that uses strategic foresight to help companies thrive from future trends in foresight . This is just one of many possible futures society may experience.

International relations predictions for India in 2025

International relations predictions to impact India in 2025 include:

• India partners with Vietnam and funds a nuclear weapon program, curbing China's dominance in the region. Likelihood: 40% 1
• India funds defense infrastructure in island countries like Mauritius, Seychelles, among other Asian nations to counter China's expansion in the region. Likelihood: 60% 1
• Australia, the United States, India, and Japan establish a joint regional infrastructure scheme to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative. Likelihood: 60% 1
• Since a military standoff in the Doklam Plateau in 2017, India and China have bolstered their infrastructure and military in the Himalayas as they prepare for their second confrontation. Likelihood: 50% 1
• US agree to build six nuclear power plants in India . Link

Politics predictions for India in 2025

Politics related predictions to impact India in 2025 include:

• India is introducing free health care—for 500 million people. Link
• Australia, U.S., India and Japan in talks to establish Belt and Road alternative: report. Link

Government predictions for India in 2025

Government related predictions to impact India in 2025 include:

• India and Russia spend $30 billion on energy deals with each other, up from USD 11 billion. Likelihood: 80% 1
• Exclusive: India plans to order taxi aggregators like Uber, Ola to go electric - documents. Link
• Only electric 2-wheelers may be sold in country after 2025. Link
• India readies plan for $4 billion Tesla-scale battery storage plants. Link
• Preparing for a rematch at the top of the world. Link

Economy predictions for India in 2025

Economy related predictions to impact India in 2025 include:

• India requires 22 million workers in 5G-focused industries as 4G subscriptions decline and total mobile data traffic surges. Likelihood: 70 percent. 1
• Rural residents comprise 56% of new internet users, up from just 36% in 2023. Likelihood: 70 percent. 1
• India's quick commerce sector (e.g., deliveries) increases from a USD $300-million market value in 2021 to USD $5 billion. Likelihood: 70 percent 1
• India's "Make in India" campaign, an effort to boost domestic manufacturing, succeeds. The manufacturing's share of the economy increases from 16% in 2019 to 25% today. Likelihood: 70% 1
• India has grown its GDP from USD 3 trillion in 2019 to USD 5 trillion. The country surpasses the UK and Japan to become the second-largest economy in the Asia-Pacific region. Likelihood: 70% 1
• Huge growth of USD 32.35 Bn by 2025 for Indian semiconductor market . Link
• ‘Digital economy will create over 60 m jobs by 2025’. Link
• Indian start-ups has potential to create over 12 lakh direct jobs by 2025. Link
• India and Russia target $30 billion in trade by 2025, announce new energy deals. Link
• Wary of china, India shares its largesse with neighbors. Link

Technology predictions for India in 2025

Technology related predictions to impact India in 2025 include:

• Digital technologies generate roughly $1 trillion for India's economy, accounting for 20% of the country's nominal GDP. Likelihood: 90% 1
• Lab-grown "clean meat" becomes available in India for general consumption. Likelihood: 70% 1
• Indian banks lose USD 9 billion in revenue due to e-wallets and digital banking competition. Likelihood: 90% 1
• 65% of India's population uses smartphones, a 50% increase from a decade ago. Likelihood: 90% 1
• Automation makes its way into India's healthcare system; the surgical robotics market hits $350 million, up from $64 million in 2016. Likelihood: 70% 1
• Ride-hailing services operating India convert 40% of their fleets to electric vehicles. Likelihood: 70% 1
• Automation boom: India's surgical robotics market to grow 5 times by 2025. Link
• 65% of India's population will use smartphones by 2025. Link
• Lab-grown ‘clean meat’ may become available in India by 2025. Link

Culture predictions for India in 2025

Culture related predictions to impact India in 2025 include:

Defense predictions for in 2025

Defense related predictions to impact India in 2025 include:

• Indian defence exports grows to Rs 350,000,000 up from Rs 110,000,000 in 2025. Likelihood: 90% 1
• India's defense exports increase from $1.47 billion in 2019 to $25 billion today. Likelihood: 70% 1
• India targets $26 billion defence industry by 2025. Link

Infrastructure predictions for India in 2025

Infrastructure related predictions to impact India in 2025 include:

• The total number of operational global capacity centers (GCCs) in India increases to 1,900 from 1,580 in 2023, accounting for 35-40% of overall office leasing in the country. Likelihood: 70 percent. 1
• The USD $4-billion regional rapid railway transport system (RRTS) starts operations, servicing the National Capital Region, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Likelihood: 70 percent 1
• Ten 'fleet mode' nuclear reactors, comprising 700-megawatt atomic power plants, are completed. Likelihood: 70 percent 1
• After India and the US signed an agreement to cooperate in the civil nuclear energy sector in 2008, the US builds six nuclear power plants in Indian provinces like Maharashtra and Gujarat. Likelihood: 70% 1
• A polymer glue made by shredded plastic now holds together ~70% of India's roads. Likelihood: 60% 1
• Plastic roads: India’s radical plan to bury its garbage beneath the streets. Link

Environment predictions for India in 2025

Environment related predictions to impact India in 2025 include:

• India mandates the use of 1% of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) for domestic airlines. Likelihood: 65 percent. 1
• Every new 2-wheeler sold in India is now electric. Likelihood: 60% 1
• 25% of all vehicles in India are now electric. Likelihood: 90% 1
• ‘By 2025, India should have 20-25% electric vehicles’. Link

Science predictions for India in 2025

Science related predictions to impact India in 2025 include:

• India and Japan jointly launch a Moon mission to hunt for water near the lunar South Pole. Likelihood: 65 percent. 1
• India takes local astronauts into space. Likelihood: 65 percent. 1

Health predictions for India in 2025

Health related predictions to impact India in 2025 include:

• The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare screens and places 75 million people with hypertension or diabetes on Standard Care (reasonable care). Likelihood: 60 percent. 1
• India becomes Tuberculosis free. Likelihood: 70% 1
• India reduces the number of people with high blood pressure from 200 million to 150 million, a 25% decrease. Likelihood: 80% 1
• India provides free healthcare for 500 million people. Likelihood: 70% 1

More predictions from 2025

Read the top global predictions from 2025 - click here

Next scheduled update for this resource page

January 7, 2022. Last updated January 7, 2020.

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India’s Next Decade: Some Predictions, Some Speculations

Most of our debates focus on the here and now: issues such as the Covid-19 challenges, border disputes with China, the Agriculture Bills, phone hacking by Pegasus, or the banking sector’s continued bad debt crisis. However, the most important challenges – as well as the most promising opportunities – are what economists call “beyond the horizon” problems. Thanks to our evolution from the reptilian brain and our hardwired survival instinct, we systematically overestimate the magnitude of current challenges and underestimate the challenges that are far away.

This year is the thirtieth anniversary of India’s much vaunted economic reforms. Much has changed since then. In the early decades of independence, India had internalised poverty. In debates whether subsidies or infrastructure should be government priority, because of resource constraints and the zero sum nature of the expenditures, often-times subsidies got priority and long term investments lagged. The “Hindu rate of growth”, which translated to 1.3% per capita growth came to define India’s post-independence performance in early decades, (see Virmani, (2004)) [1] . Today’s India – in its reality and in its aspirations – is dramatically different. Ralph Waldo Emerson famously said: “The years teach much which the days never know.” My corollary: the years hide stories that only decades can tell.

This essay will attempt to look a decade ahead. I will cover a broad range of issues that I believe can be game changers for our country. Navigating these will require not just sound rational analysis, but also political will. And even more, it will require a preparation of society’s diverse constituents. Taken together, these will propel us forward. As we dwell on the decade ahead, it will be useful to recall Abraham Lincoln’s prophetic insight: “The best way to predict your future is to create it.”

1. Operating Leverage of the Indian Consumer Will Be a Potent Force

While there will be inevitable swings in economic conditions, there is a strong unidirectional tailwind that is extremely favourable. I call it the operating leverage of the Indian consumer. For a majority of Indians, out of every Rs 100 of annual income, Rs 80 gets spent on day to day expenses. Only the remaining Rs 20 is discretionary income. If Indian nominal wage growth is 9% [2 ] , which is what the average has been, and if one deducts 4% inflation from this, the real wage growth would be 5%. In real terms, median income increases to Rs 105 annually. However, the median discretionary income goes from Rs 20 to Rs 25; that’s an increase of 25%. We have millions of Indians crossing this threshold, where they have nominal wage growth in the 8-10% range, but in real terms, their discretionary income is growing at 20%.

Business cycles can subdue this trend only somewhat over the short term. Over the medium term, and certainly over the long term, this trend will stay on course. The results of this are quite profound. Here’s a sample: Private general insurers have grown 18.5% and health insurers 21.2% in the decade of 2010-2020 [3] , on the back of increasing market penetration and shift of market share from public sector companies to private insurers because of better quality of their services. Barring the Covid-19 disruption, advertising growth—a direct consumer proxy—has tracked 12% annualised growth over the past decade [4] . Consumer durables have witnessed a 20% growth from 2012-2020. Company-specific numbers show similar trends: Telecom company Jio has grown its wireless subscribers from 186.6 million in end 2017-2018 to 387.5 million at the end of 2019-2020 [5] and its aggressive pricing has made India’s data consumption 11.96GB per subscriber per month on average in 2020 (TRAI, 2020), not just the highest in the world but more than 2x that of the US levels. In the past 20 years, electrical goods company Havells has increased its revenues almost 100x and its profits more than 300x, and as investors have come to realise its potential, its market cap has jumped 6,000x since its listing in 1994. (Just as a fun comparison, since Amazon’s IPO in 1997, its market cap is up 4,000x till date, making Jeff Bezos the richest man in the world.) All of this has one common theme: the Indian consumer. While there is some criticism that Indian purchasing power is limited, effectively, consumer markets are smaller than what top-down analysis shows, and market segments are saturating fast, and my own sense is that there is plenty of headroom. 2030 will see more of the above.

In the top ten industries producing India’s billionaires, the two largest contributors are information technology and pharmaceuticals, both of which are primarily global-contracting sectors.

The mix of India’s billionaires points to the consumer boom. Historically, as domestic markets have been small, exporters have been the darlings of industry. In the top ten industries producing India’s billionaires, the two largest contributors are information technology and pharmaceuticals, both of which are primarily global-contracting sectors. Most of the rest are consumer goods and related sectors: fast moving consumer goods, automotive, food and beverages, textiles and apparel. And in a divergence from its Asian peers, in India, real estate ranks 10 th and infrastructure does not feature on the list at all.

This consumer-centric gravitational pull that one sees in legacy businesses also holds true in the world of disruption. Low penetration levels in most market segments have opened the opportunity for entrepreneurs to launch new products and brands, in online, offline and omni-channel modes. India today has 100 unicorns [6] , and added 3 a month in 2021 [7] . A report by Praxis Global Alliance(2021) is optimistic that India currently has 190 “Soonicorns” which are likely to graduate to Unicorn status by 2025. Fintech happens to be the largest generator of unicorns, followed by retail, online classifieds and travel, education and food, content and gaming. The time taken to reach unicorn-status has shrunk from an average of 7.4 years in 2010 to 2.4 years now, and based on the current trend lines, one can expect 250 unicorns by 2030. My prediction: powered by the domestic consumption boom, the most sought after jobs in 2030 will not be Unilever or Goldman Sachs, which have traditionally ruled Day 1 in top-tier campus recruitments, but in yet to be born, bootstrapped, adrenaline-driven, Unicorn-aspirant startups.

In the consumer sphere, two contra-trends are simultaneously true. New, but traditionally-driven consumer brands continue to create extraordinary wealth. Just look at Vini Cosmetics which makes the Fogg brand of deodorant. Or Pulse in the candy business, started by a true-blooded traditional paan masala company. Or Biba in women’s apparel, Fab India in handwoven garments and home furnishings, Forest Essentials in Ayurveda based skin care, MDH in spices, Veeba in sauces. The list is endless. At the same time, in category after category, digitally native brands are making their mark. Boat’s headphones are a rage with the 20-something crowd. Mama Earth’s skincare products have caught the imagination of young women. Licious found a white space in the meat industry and is attempting to create a direct-to-consumer brand in an otherwise disorganised sector. Country Delight, with its deep supply chains, is disrupting the dairy industry. Pharmeasy, a company we are shareholders in, has built India’s largest online pharmacy, became a Unicorn last year, and is planning an IPO pegged at a $5-6 billion valuation.

India’s disposable income led consumer boom is going to have profound changes in the financial markets as well. Currently as on 30 th Sep 2021, the top seven sectors constituting the Nifty 50 stock market index are financial services (37.23% weightage), information technology (17.41%), oil and gas (12.30%), consumer goods (11.11%), automobile (4.71%), pharma (3.39%), and construction (2.69%) [8] . By 2030, there will be large changes in this composition as the Indian economy evolves. Financial services and oil and gas will reduce their weightage, and consumer goods will clearly gain. A few months ago, Tata Consumer Products replaced Gas Authority of India Limited in the index. And there’s talk that retailer DMart and consumer internet behemoth InfoEdge will soon be included in the index as well. Such changes will affect how India’s savings are eventually invested, creating a positive feedback loop. In more ways than one, this will be the decade of the Indian consumer!

2. Structural Roadblocks and Constraints Will Continue

Offsetting the secular trend of disproportionate increase in disposable income driving consumption-led-growth, there are several challenges that we cannot wish away as a society. We cannot expect government leaders to solve them in the course of the next decade, though we can expect they can be moderated to some degree.

India’s growth will be distorted by the differentials in economic activity in the West and the South as compared to the North and the East.

India’s growth will be distorted by the differentials in economic activity in the West and the South as compared to the North and the East. Already, on average, India’s southern and western states have been growing materially faster than their northern and eastern peers. By 2019, the three richest states in India on an absolute GDP basis were Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat. Then came Uttar Pradesh. When one considers that Uttar Pradesh’s population is 3x that of Gujarat and its economy is similar in size to Gujarat, the story becomes shocking [9] . Per capita income of Gujarat, on the basis of Net State Domestic Product is 3x more than that of UP. Here are some more counter-intuitive statistics: Goa, India’s richest state on a per capita basis is more than 10x richer than Bihar, India’s poorest. Punjab, long considered India’s rich state, currently has a smaller GDP than the split-up states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana individually; even on a per capita basis, it ranks much below Telangana and is neck-to-neck with Andhra Pradesh. Indeed, the future comes slowly, and then suddenly.

This would have at least three implications: Given the vastly different levels of prosperity, it would be difficult to get India’s 4817 legislators – the total number of members of parliament and of the various legislative assemblies – to reach common ground on the way forward for India. Moreover, if one adds the cultural and language differences between the rich and the poor states, the electorate would likely turn inward. The prosperous middle class in, say Tamil Nadu, would wonder why their tax monies are being spent to subsidise the inefficiencies of the masses of Uttar Pradesh. The urban crowds of Bangalore or Pune—fearing risks of squalor and crime—may not take too kindly to the rush of poor migrants from Bihar. Such fault lines have been seen in China and Korea, though these countries created high quality jobs in manufacturing, which is less true in India, and given the linguistic differences, managing these will be a fine art at all levels of the administration.

In the run up to 2030, India’s leaders will have to address the skewed nature of India’s development and will have to counter two fundamental questions, both of which have no correct answer.

India has lifted 271 million people out of poverty in the last decade (between 2006 and 2016) [10] , as per the United Nations Development Programme’s 2019 Multidimensional Poverty Index. This number is sometimes contested because of inaccuracies and lags in Indian economic data. Nonetheless, India’s extraordinary feat in tackling poverty hides many inconsistencies, as has been pointed out by Nobel laureate Amartya Sen and economist Jean Dreze in their earlier book “An Uncertain Glory”. Gender, caste and geographical disparities haunt India’s poor. Like elsewhere in the world, rising inequality is an issue in India. India’s Gini Coefficient – a standard measure of income inequality – is already worrying, especially given our stage of development. However, this picture of inequality is very different from western experience in the past decade, where standards of living for large sections of society have declined as compared to that of their parents. In India and in most developing countries, absolute gains have been across the board, even though uneven.

In the run up to 2030, India’s leaders will have to address the skewed nature of India’s development and will have to counter two fundamental questions, both of which have no correct answer. One is philosophical. The contradiction between liberty and equality – highlighted in Will Durant’s remarkable book “The Lessons of History” – will need to be addressed. The other is political. In a famous interaction between former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and an un-named Chinese minister on the Chinese reform programme, when asked whether it would lead to greater inequality in China, the Chinese minister replied “We would certainly hope so.” Ideologically, I consider myself the right fringe of the left-movement, and would suggest that each one of us, not just political leaders or policy wonks, take a hard, holistic and pragmatic look at this question. 2030 is waiting for our answer.

3. Smart Policy Solutions and a Sense of Ownership Will Be Important

My generation has been fortunate that we started our work life in the aftermath of the 1991 reforms. India’s growth rate quickly got reset to an upward trajectory. As India shed its socialist leanings and internalised the dynamism of free markets, the very definition of the ideological centre in the left-right economic dialogues moved decidedly towards the right. This trajectory has continued under governments of all hues and has been accelerated in the recent policy announcements. Indeed, the debates from thirty years ago seem archaic.

As India shed its socialist leanings and internalised the dynamism of free markets, the very definition of the ideological centre in the left-right economic dialogues moved decidedly towards the right.

As businessmen, we need to benchmark what our economic expectations are. First, we need to anchor it to the reality of the country. Economic theory tells us that growth is investment rate divided by incremental capital output ratio. Both are sticky numbers. India’s investment rate for long stretches has hovered around 30% [11] . The investment rate is strongly correlated to India’s savings rate, which in turn is partly cultural and partly determined by the dependency ratio. Because of our high dependency ratio, our savings rate in the 1960s was almost half of what it is currently. As our savings rate doubled, so did our growth. India’s incremental capital output ratio is about 4 and is inching upwards. Therefore, India’s fighting weight in terms of economic growth is in the range of 7-7.5% and this is what it should strive for.

Second, we have to think probabilistically. We have to imagine scenarios and work with possibilities rather than a deterministic path. India’s growth will fluctuate around this number, and we should not get ecstatic if it goes to 9% briefly or collapses to 4.5% periodically. Both have happened and have invited extreme views. As India’s investment rate has circumstantially fluctuated, we have seen its effect on the GDP figures, most of which is short-lived. To borrow from Rudyard Kipling, we have to learn to meet with Triumph and Disaster, and treat those two impostors just the same!

Third, superficial comparisons with other countries are misleading. For instance, an oft-asked question in business circles is how China managed a spectacular growth rate of 10% for almost two decades. Here’s the answer: In most of that period, China’s savings rate was 45% and its incremental capital output ratio was about 5. The math was simple. Years of sub-par investments fuelled by a debt binge increased the incremental capital output ratio to 7 or more [12] . Growth fell at 6.5%. The magic ended. One should not consider this a failure, but a somewhat natural outcome of the economy maturing.

Fourth, India’s favourable demographic window will create what Charlie Munger calls the “Lollapalooza” effect. Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger coined the term to outline how multiple different tendencies and mental models combine to act in the same direction. Low dependency ratios will fuel a self-reinforcing cycle of savings, investments and growth. A bulge in working age population, which started in 2018 and is expected to last till 2050 [13] , can help turbocharge growth, as happened with many Asian countries in the late 20 th century, which saw near-double digit economic growth for decades. To borrow from astrology, India’s stars are rightly aligned.

If one stays with India’s natural fighting weight in terms of economic growth, in the short to medium term, good governance can change the number by 1%.

Governments matter. In some ways, more than we think. In other ways, less than we think. In the early 1990s, 40.85% [14] of Uttar Pradesh’s population and 22.19% of the combined Andhra Pradesh was below the poverty line. Both were near the bottom of the league tables. Twenty years later in 2011-12, Uttar Pradesh’s poverty rate was 29.43% [15] , while Andhra Pradesh had managed to reduce it to 9.20%. Political entrepreneurship clearly works. On the other hand, in the near term global macro and economic cycles matter more than governance. If one stays with India’s natural fighting weight in terms of economic growth, in the short to medium term, good governance can change the number by 1%. Global conditions—trade barriers, commodity prices, interest rates—can change this by a larger factor. In the long term, as macro-forces cancel each other, global macro goes into the background. What’s left is governance. People often tend to misattribute credit and blame. Political and election cycles, the recurring hum of central government or some state government elections, amplify this trend. So, one request, my friends: don’t focus on 2022 or even 2025, but on 2030!

Optimism is warranted. Here’s a surprising fact from the World Bank: Their “Lived Change Index” uses lifetime per capita GDP to track how much economic change a population has experienced [16] . Over the past three decades, China is an outlier, having delivered 31x, with runner up Poland at 9x, and India comes in 6 th at 5x, ahead of Singapore, Malaysia and Brazil. India needs to continue to play the long game well.

An ascending India of 2030 will act in a versatile manner, have foresight and will shape the global agenda.

At the same time, speed will be of essence. Consider the following world events: coup in Myanmar, power crisis in Texas, Australia vs Facebook, Bitcoin hit $50,000, China banned BBC, NASA landed on Mars, India sent vaccines to many countries, global drop in Covid cases, first US airstrike under Biden. As data researcher Norbert Elekes pointed out, all of these happened in the single month of February 2021. Given this accelerating pace of world events, an ascending India of 2030 will act in a versatile manner, have foresight and will shape the global agenda.

4. The Action Will Be at the Intersection of Politics and Economics

The adage “The economy is too important to be left to economists” is often attributed to Winston Churchill but here I am referring to the seminal book by Robert Reich, well known UC Berkeley academic and former Labour Secretary in the Clinton Administration. He wrote passionately about the role of government in the era of late stage capitalism that we are in. South Korea’s “Miracle on the Han River”, from the early 1960s to the late 1980s, is considered unprecedented in the history of the world, and was led by its outward looking government. China’s transformation was anchored by Deng Xiaoping’s “To be rich is glorious” moment in the late 1970s. Germany, Mexico, Czech Republic, all had similar political champions.

In India, as political power devolves from the centre to the states, governance will become a deeper determinant of success.

In India, as political power devolves from the centre to the states, governance will become a deeper determinant of success. Whether it is managing the government’s precarious finances or streamlining the maze of direct and indirect taxation, whether it is solving the accumulated problems of bad loans on the books of India’s banks or bringing real long-term interest rates down from the high 5% that has haunted Indian business, whether it is navigating the world of trade agreements or strategising as multinationals ponder over their China+1 plans, whether it is tackling head on India’s poor social indicators or upgrading India’s state capacity, whether it is advancing India’s geopolitical standing or optimising India’s privatisation programme, whether it is tech-sector regulation or accelerating action on India’s legal backlog of 45 million cases [17] , whether it is catching up on India’s infrastructure needs or solving India’s agricultural inefficiencies, the winning formula will reside at the intersection of politics and economics. Economics will provide the logic, politics will provide the leeway.

India’s demographics is both a boon and a bane. India’s window of opportunity is perhaps the next decade and a half.

India’s demographics is both a boon and a bane. India’s window of opportunity is perhaps the next decade and a half. The over-65 population is projected to overtake the under-five group between 2025 and 2030. “India Ageing Report 2017” by the United Nations Population Fund says the share of population over the age of 60 would increase from 8% in 2015 to 19% in 2050. All this will reverse the trend of declining dependency ratios, hurt the savings-investment-growth dynamic, and moderate India’s economic growth rates. I read a tweet recently, which reflected the sentiments of Middle America: “The lifestyle you ordered is out of stock,” This would likely play out in India as well. With the build up of aspirations on one side and the weight of demographic reversals on the other side, tensions will surely mount.

Political leaders will have to lead with a singular focus and follow Jim Collins’ management advice regarding leadership in a world of complexity and uncertainty: “Instead of being oppressed by the “Tyranny of the Or”, highly visionary companies liberate themselves with the “Genius of the And”— the ability to embrace both extremes of a number of dimensions at the same time.” For Vision 2030 and beyond, boxes are out, fluidity is in.

Policy adventurism has long tails. For instance, recent news reports [18] , though contested [19] , show how government finances have been hurt by the oil bonds of the 2005-10 period, which were issued by the government to oil marketing companies to compensate for under-recoveries resulting from rise in crude prices which they were not allowed to pass on to consumers and industry. These, estimated between $10 to $18 billion, is now coming due, starting from late 2021 through to 2026. Such exercises of creative management of the Union Budget have added up to make government finances precarious and are effectively making taxpayers today pay for subsidies handed out to consumers more than a decade ago. In most such cases, politics wins, economics loses. Hard headed economics needs to be brought centre-stage.

In the near term, while the seductive appeal of nationalism, populism and protectionism will prevail, ultimately the pendulum will swing towards global integration, and our own historical experience of being an autarky will probably make us a champion of free markets and globalisation as this decade comes to an end.

Political polarisation would also likely have economic solutions. In a very timely essay in The American Purpose, Steven Feldstein (2021), a Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, spoke about the risks of technologically driven echo chambers and safe havens: “There is a risk that democracies will fracture even further, into “splinternets,” unable to coordinate norms and standards.” Such risks are even more stark in India because of its multidimensional diversity. A singular focus on tangible prosperity can channelise the narrative. In the near term, while the seductive appeal of nationalism, populism and protectionism will prevail, ultimately the pendulum will swing towards global integration, and our own historical experience of being an autarky will probably make us a champion of free markets and globalisation as this decade comes to an end. And importantly, India has been conditioned to look West. Much of the action now is in the East and as India cracks the East Asian trade networks, the rewards are likely to be disproportionate.

As the world moves from bilateralism to multilateralism, alignments will be more issue based and tactical, giving Middle Powers like India new abilities to shape the world.

The Lowy Asia Power Index (2020) ranks countries based on eight criteria: economic capability, military capability, resilience, future resources, economic relationships, defence networks, diplomatic relations and cultural influence. Directly or indirectly, all of these factors are a confluence of political and economic forces. In the 2020 survey, India ranked 4th, after the United States, China and Japan. By 2030, India could easily come 3rd, if not 2nd. Geopolitically, India will have an opening: As the world moves from bilateralism to multilateralism, alignments will be more issue based and tactical, giving Middle Powers like India new abilities to shape the world. However, capitalising on it, will require an integrated worldview, the core of which will be India’s economic strength, aided and abetted by political craftsmanship, the deep roots of the Indian diaspora, and India’s near-natural status to be a counterweight to China.

The shortest poem in the world – Me, We – was recited by heavyweight boxing champ Muhammad Ali at the Harvard Commencement in 1975. It signified the paradox of self-confidence and deference to the community. The decade leading to 2030 will need Indian leaders to recite such poetry.

5. Conclusion: To Win, Practice Cathedral Thinking

The economic prize of 2030 may not seem that attractive at first glance. According to the World Economic League Tables (2021), India’s GDP in 2030 will be $6.2 trillion, translating to $4185 on a per capita basis. However, on a PPP basis, this would be at least 3x more, comparable to Indonesia, South Africa or Peru today. As a society we should endeavour to beat this base case. Getting there will require Cathedral Thinking.

Cathedral Thinking refers to long-term, visionary work that could take generations to complete. Much like building a massive cathedral, those who lay the first stones won’t be there to savour the finished product. Yet each worker is driven to make a meaningful contribution to something that will be enjoyed by future generations, who they’ll never meet. That is the long-range vision leaders need if India has to reach its true potential.

For those who think that a nation’s economic fate is determined by geography or culture, Daron Acemoglu and Jim Robinson (2012) have bad news. In their remarkable book, “Why Nations Fail”, they go through two thousand years of political and economic history, and conclude that it’s man-made institutions, not resources or endowments or the contingencies of history, that are the prime determinants of whether a country is rich or poor. India’s institutions need to be reset for the new era of global competition.

India of 2030 will look very different from an institutional setting and that will perhaps be the core driver of all the surface changes that we will encounter.

A few things stand out. India’s institutions are typically forced to cater to a range of conflicting demands. Regulators often play catch up with market realities. Many government policies have a crisis as a frame of reference. And lastly, in India’s defining moments, individual heroism trumps institutional initiatives. India of 2030 will look very different from an institutional setting and that will perhaps be the core driver of all the surface changes that we will encounter.

Success – amongst people, businesses, countries – is not a result of more good luck, less bad luck, bigger spikes of luck, or better timing of luck. Instead, they make more of their luck than others. The current decade is a time to maximise our return on luck!

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Acemoglu, D. & Robinson, J.A. (2012). Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty. New York: Crown Publishers, Random House.

Collins, J. & Porras, J.I. (1994). Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies. United States: Harper Business. ISBN 0-060-56610-8

Dreze, J. & Sen, A. (2013). An Uncertain Glory: India and its Contradictions. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

Durant, W. & Durant, A. (1968). The Lessons of History. Simon & Schuster.

Feldstein, S. (2021). Can Democracy Survive the “Splinternet?”. American Purpose. Retrieved from url: https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/can-democracy-survive-the-splinternet/

India Ageing Report (2017). Caring for Our Elders: Early Responses, available at https://india.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/India%20Ageing%20Report%20-%202017%20%28Final%20Version%29.pdf

Lowy Institute Asia Power Index. (2020). Lowy Institute. Retrieved from: https://power.lowyinstitute.org/

Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2019. Retrieved from url: https://www.exchange4media.com/PMAR19-Final.pdf

Press Trust of India. (September 2, 2021). ‘India added three ‘unicorns’ per month in 2021: Hurun report’. Business Standard.

Reliance Industries Limited Integrated Annual Report 2019-2020. https://www.ril.com/getattachment/299caec5-2e8a-43b7-8f70-d633a150d07e/AnnualReport_2019-20.aspx

Reserve Bank of India Bulletin. August 2021. Volume LXXV Number 8. Retrieved from url: https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/0BULLETINAUG2021767F2556D32A4061B0AC0EE3C54C1208.PDF

Telecom Regulatory Authority of India. (2020). The Indian Telecom Services Performance Indicators, July-September 2020. New Delhi. Retrieved from url: https://www.trai.gov.in/sites/default/files/QPIR_21012021_0.pdf

United Nations Development Programme. (2019). The 2019 Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI). United Nations Development Programme and Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative. Retrieved from url: http://hdr.undp.org/en/2019-MPI

United Nations Population Fund 2017. ‘Caring for Our Elders: Early Responses’ – India Ageing Report – 2017. New Delhi, India: UNFPA. Retrieved from url: https://india.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/India%20Ageing%20Report%20-%202017%20%28Final%20Version%29.pdf

Virmani, A., 2004. India’s economic growth: From socialist rate of growth to Bharatiya rate of growth, (No. 122). ICRIER Working Paper.

WORLD ECONOMIC LEAGUE TABLE (2021). Available at https://cebr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WELT-2021-final-23.12.pdf

Zac Dycthwald. (2021). China’s New Innovation Advantage. Harvard Business Review. Retrieved from url: https://hbr.org/2021/05/chinas-new-innovation-advantage

[1]  See https://www.financialexpress.com/archive/redefining-the-hindu-rate-of-growth/104268/

[2]  https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/at-92-salary-growth-in-india-is-highest-in-asia/article30462524.ece

[3]  See data from Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India

[4]  See Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2019 available here https://www.exchange4media.com/PMAR19-Final.pdf

[5]  Reliance Industries Limited Annual Report 2019-20, page 4

[6]  See 100 Unicorns: India’s changing corporate strategy, India Market Strategy, Credit Suisse, March 10, 2021. Quoted in RBI Bulletin, August 2021.

[7]  https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/india-added-three-unicorns-per-month-in-2021-hurun-report-121090200848_1.html

[8]  https://www1.nseindia.com/content/indices/ind_nifty50.pdf

[9]  Handbook of Statistics on Indian States, RBI

[10]  https://gdc.unicef.org/resource/report-india-lifted-271-million-people-out-poverty-decade

[11]  India’s investment rate as a percentage of GDP has fluctuated between 20% and 35%. With increase in NPAs this has been pulled down. However, the government has been prompt in taking strong actions by the Asset Quality Review followed by the introduction of Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. These should bring back the NPAs to reasonable levels and kickstart the credit cycle.

[12]  https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2019/01/22/joyless-growth-in-china-india-and-the-united-states/

[13]  https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/age-dependency-ratio-projected-to-2100

[14]  https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=18810

[15]  https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=18810

[16]  https://hbr.org/2021/05/chinas-new-innovation-advantage

[17]  https://www.news18.com/news/explainers/explained-cji-ramana-says-4-5-crore-cases-pending-heres-what-has-been-fuelling-backlog-3977411.html

[18]  https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/the-oil-bonds-upa-launched-why-how-much-and-what-nda-argues-7458773/

[19]  https://scroll.in/article/894559/fact-check-have-upa-era-oil-bonds-prevented-modi-government-from-reducing-oil-prices

Gaurav Dalmia

Ensuring Awas Yojana Success in The Big Cities

The Neglect of Healthcare Must be Reversed

A Ground Plan for Sustainable Mass Employment

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Is India the World’s Next Great Economic Power?

• Bhaskar Chakravorti
• Gaurav Dalmia

Historically, the country’s expected rise has remained elusive. Here’s a look at what’s different now.

Is India’s economic rise inevitable? There’s good reason to think that this latest round of Indo-optimism might be different than previous iterations, but the country still has major challenges to address to make good on this promise. In terms of drivers, demand — in the form of a consumer boom, context appropriate innovation, and a green transition — and supply — in the form of a demographic dividend, access to finance, and major infrastructure upgrades — are helping to push the country forward. This is facilitated by policy reforms, geopolitical positioning, and a diaspora dividend. Even so, the country faces barriers to success, including unbalanced growth, unrealized demographic potential, and unrealized ease-of-business and innovation potential.

In 2002, India’s government launched a ubiquitous international tourism campaign known as “Incredible India.” Were it to launch a similar campaign today, it might as well be called “Inevitable India.” Not just enthusiasts within the country, but a chorus of global analysts, have declared India as the next great economic power: Goldman Sachs has predicted it will become the world’s second-largest economy by 2075, and the FT’s Martin Wolf suggests that by 2050, its purchasing power will be 30% larger than that of the U.S.

• Bhaskar Chakravorti is the Dean of Global Business at The Fletcher School at Tufts University and founding Executive Director of Fletcher’s Institute for Business in the Global Context . He is the author of The Slow Pace of Fast Change .
• Gaurav Dalmia is the Chairman of Dalmia Group Holdings, an Indian holding company for business and financial assets.

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• Nov 8, 2022

India’s Impending Economic Boom

India is on track to become the world’s third largest economy by 2027, surpassing japan and germany, and have the third largest stock market by 2030, thanks to global trends and key investments the country has made in technology and energy..

India is already the fastest-growing economy in the world, having clocked 5.5% average gross domestic product growth over the past decade. Now, three megatrends—global offshoring, digitalization and energy transition—are setting the scene for unprecedented economic growth in the country of more than 1 billion people.

“We believe India is set to surpass Japan and Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2027 and will have the third-largest stock market by the end of this decade,” says Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Equity Strategist for India. “Consequently, India is gaining power in the world order, and in our opinion these idiosyncratic changes imply a once-in-a-generation shift and an opportunity for investors and companies.”

All told, India’s GDP could more than double from $3.5 trillion today to surpass $7.5 trillion by 2031. Its share of global exports could also double over that period, while the Bombay Stock Exchange could deliver 11% annual growth, reaching a market capitalization of $10 trillion in the coming decade.

In a new Morgan Stanley Research Bluepaper, analysts working across sectors look at how this new era of economic development could bring about staggering changes: boosting India’s share of global manufacturing, expanding credit availability, creating new businesses, improving quality of life and spurring a boom in consumer spending.

“In a world that is currently starved of growth, the opportunity set in India must be on global investors’ radar,” says Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Asia Economist. “India will be one of only three economies in the world that can generate more than $400 billion annual economic output growth from 2023 onward, and this will rise to more than $500 billion after 2028.”

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Mapping the new multipolar world order, wfh software has room to grow.

Video: The India Decade: Gaining Power in a World Economy

Global Offshoring Creates a Workforce for the World

Companies around the world have been outsourcing services such as software development, customer service and business process outsourcing to India since the early days of the Internet. Now, however, tighter global labor markets and the emergence of distributed work models are bringing new momentum to the idea of India as the back office to the world.

“In a post-Covid environment, CEOs are more comfortable with both work from home and work from India,” says Desai. In the coming decade, he notes, the number of people employed in India for jobs outside the country is likely to at least double, reaching more than 11 million, as global spending on outsourcing swells from $180 billion per year to around $500 billion by 2030.

India is also poised to become the factory to the world, as corporate tax cuts, investment incentives and infrastructure spending help drive capital investments in manufacturing.

“Multinationals are now buoyant about the prospects of investing in India, and the government is helping their cause by investing in infrastructure as well as supplying land for building factories,” says Upasana Chachra, Chief India Economist. Morgan Stanley data shows that multinational corporations’ sentiment on the investment outlook in India is at an all-time high. Manufacturing’s share of GDP in India could increase from 15.6% currently to 21% by 2031—and, in the process, double India’s export market share. 

India's Share of Manufacturing is expected to increase to 21% of GDP by 2031

Digitalization, Credit and the Consumer

India began laying the foundation for a more digital economy more than a decade ago with the launch of a national identification program called Aadhaar. The system creates biometric IDs to establish proof of residence and has been instrumental in digitizing financial transactions, among other benefits.

This initiative is now part of IndiaStack, a decentralized public utility offering a low-cost comprehensive digital identity, payment and data-management system. “IndiaStack is likely to lead to a massive change in how India spends, borrows and accesses healthcare,” says Desai.

IndiaStack has broad applications, including a network for lowering credit costs, making loans more accessible and affordable for both consumers and businesses. Credit availability is an important component of economic growth, and “India is currently one of the most under leveraged countries in the world,” says Desai, whose team thinks the ratio of credit to GDP could increase from 57% to 100% over the next decade.

Indian consumers are also likely to have more disposable income. India’s income distribution could flip over the next decade, and consequently overall consumption in the country could more than double from $2 trillion in 2022 to $4.9 trillion by the end of the decade—with the greatest gains going to non-grocery retail, including apparel and accessories, leisure and recreation, and household goods and services, among other categories. 

India's overall consumption could more than double as income distribution in the country shifts. 

Energy Access and Transition

Energy is also key to economic development, as it impacts education, productivity, communication, commerce and quality of life. All of India’s 600,000-plus villages have access to electricity, due to recent upgrades to transmission and distribution, among other changes. This could boost India’s daily energy consumption by 60% over the next decade.

Although India will need to tap fossil fuels to meet its growing energy needs, an estimated two-thirds of India’s new energy consumption will be supplied renewables like biogas and ethanol, hydrogen, wind, solar and hydroelectric power. This could reduce India’s reliance on imported energy and improve living conditions in a country that is now home to 14 of 20 the most polluted cities in the world. It also creates new demand for electric solutions, such electric vehicles, bikes, and green hydrogen-powered trucks and buses.

“The rise in India’s energy consumption alongside the energy transition opens up a new segment to boost investment growth,” says Girish Achhipalia, India Utilities and Industrials analyst. “We believe this rise in capital investments will help to unleash a virtuous cycle of investment, with more jobs and income, more savings and in turn more investment.”

Investing In the India Decade

Investing in India is a long-term theme, and one that comes with its share of risks, including prolonged global recession, adverse geopolitical developments, domestic policy changes, lack of skilled labor, energy shortages and commodity volatility.

While there are distinct differences between India’s evolution and economic expansion in China, many investment themes that have played out or are playing out in China—including the growth of financial services, industrials and consumer goods—are gaining momentum.

“In the coming decade, as India’s economy transforms, we think that it will be increasingly relevant for global investors in a similar way that China is today,” says Ahya, adding that India’s next decade could resemble China’s path from 2007 through 2012. “We think that India offers the most compelling growth opportunity in Asia in the coming years.”

For more Morgan Stanley Research insights and analysis on India's growth outlook, ask your Morgan Stanley representative or Financial Advisor for the full report, "Why This Is India's Decade" (Oct. 31, 2022). Morgan Stanley Research clients can access the report directly  here . Plus more  Ideas  from Morgan Stanley’s thought leaders. 

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Digital India: Technology to transform a connected nation

With more than half a billion internet subscribers, India is one of the largest and fastest-growing markets for digital consumers, but adoption is uneven among businesses. As digital capabilities improve and connectivity becomes omnipresent, technology is poised to quickly and radically change nearly every sector of India’s economy. That is likely to both create significant economic value and change the nature of work for tens of millions of Indians.

In Digital India: Technology to transform a connected nation (PDF–3MB), the McKinsey Global Institute highlights the rapid spread of digital technologies and their potential value to the Indian economy by 2025 if government and the private sector work together to create new digital ecosystems.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

India's consumers are taking a digital leap, uneven adoption among india's businesses has opened a digital gap, measuring the potential economic impact of digital applications in 2025, building digital ecosystems that connect, automate, and analyze, what are the implications for companies, policy makers, and individuals.

By many measures, India is well on its way to becoming a digitally advanced country. Propelled by the falling cost and rising availability of smartphones and high-speed connectivity, India is already home to one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing bases of digital consumers and is digitizing faster than many mature and emerging economies.

India had 560 million internet subscribers in September 2018, second only to China. Digital services are growing in parallel (Exhibit 1). Indians download more apps—12.3 billion in 2018—than any country except China and spend more time on social media—an average of 17 hours a week —than social media users in China and the United States. The share of Indian adults with at least one digital financial account has more than doubled since 2011, to 80 percent , thanks in large part to the government’s mass financial-inclusion program, Jan-Dhan Yojana.

To put this digital growth in context, we analyzed 17 mature and emerging economies across 30 dimensions of digital adoption since 2014 and found that India is digitizing faster than all but one other country in the study, Indonesia. Our Country Digital Adoption Index covers three elements: digital foundation (cost, speed, and reliability of internet service); digital reach (number of mobile devices, app downloads, and data consumption), and digital value, (how much consumers engage online by chatting, tweeting, shopping, or streaming). India’s score rose by 90 percent since 2014 (Exhibit 2). In absolute terms, its score is low—32 on a scale of 100—so there remains ample room to grow.

Public- and private-sector actions have driven digital growth so far

The public sector has been a strong catalyst for India’s rapid digitization. The government’s efforts to ramp up Aadhaar, the national biometric digital identity program, has played a major role. Aadhaar has enrolled 1.2 billion people since it was introduced in 2009, making it the single largest digital ID program in the world, hastening the spread of other digital services. For example, almost 870 million bank accounts were linked to Aadhaar by February 2018, compared with 399 million in April 2017 and 56 million in January 2014. Likewise, the Goods and Services Tax Network, established in 2013, brings all transactions of about 10.3 million indirect tax-paying businesses onto one digital platform, creating a powerful incentive for businesses to digitize their operations.

At the same time, private sector innovation has helped bring internet-enabled services to millions of consumers and made online usage more accessible. For example, Reliance Jio’s strategy of bundling virtually free smartphones with mobile-service subscriptions has spurred innovation and competitive pricing. Data costs have plummeted by more than 95 percent since 2013 and fixed-line download speeds quadrupled between 2014 and 2017. As a result, mobile data consumption per user grew by 152 percent annually—more than twice the rates in the United States and China (Exhibit 3).

Global and local digital businesses have recognized the opportunity in India and are creating services tailored to its consumers and unique operating conditions. Media companies are making content available in India’s 22 official languages, for example. And by tailoring its mobile payments and commerce platform to India’s market, Alibaba-backed Paytm has registered more than 100 million electronic “Know Your Customer”-compliant mobile wallet users and nine million merchants .

The pace of growth is helping India’s poorer states to narrow the digital gap with wealthier states. Lower-income states like Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand are expanding internet infrastructure such as base tower stations and increasing the penetration of internet services to new customers faster than wealthier states. Uttar Pradesh alone added close to 36 million internet subscribers between 2014 and 2018. Ordinary Indians in many parts of the country—including small towns and rural areas—can now read the news online, order food delivery via a phone app, video chat with a friend (Indians log 50 million video-calling minutes a day on WhatsApp), shop at a virtual retailer, send money to a family member using their phone, or watch a movie streamed to a handheld device.

Despite these advances, India has plenty of room to grow. Only about 40 percent of the populace has an internet subscription. While many people have digital bank accounts, 90 percent of all retail transactions in India, by volume, are still made with cash. E-commerce revenue is growing by more than 25 to 30 percent per year, yet only 5 percent of trade in India is done online, compared with 15 percent in China in 2015. Looking ahead, India’s digital consumers are poised for robust growth.

We surveyed more than 600 large and small companies in India to gauge the level of digitization in various sectors as well as the underlying traits, activities, and mind-sets that drive digitization at the firm level. We used each company’s answers to score its level of digitization and then ranked them in the MGI India Firm Digitization Index. Companies in the top quartile, which we characterize as digital leaders, had an average score of 58.2 (relative to a maximum potential value of 100), while those in the bottom quartile, the digital laggards, averaged 33.2. The median score was 46.2. A higher score indicates that the company is using digital in its day-to-day operations more extensively (implementing CRM systems, accepting digital modes of payments, etc.) and in a more organized manner (having separate analytics team, centralized digital organization, etc.) than the ones with lower scores.

Our survey found that, on average, leaders outscored others by 70 percent on strategy, 40 percent on organization, and 31 percent on capabilities (Exhibit 4).

Differences within sectors are higher than those across sectors. While some sectors have more digital leaders than others, top-quartile companies are found in all sectors—even those considered resistant to technology, such as farming or construction. Conversely, sectors with more leaders, such as information and communication technology, still have companies in the bottom quartile.

However, India’s digital leaders generally do share common traits in terms of the following areas:

• Digital strategy: Leaders are 30 percent more likely than bottom-quartile companies to fully integrate digital and global strategies and 2.3 times more likely to sell on e-commerce platforms. Leaders are 3.5 times more likely to say digital disruptions led them to change core operations and 40 percent more likely to say digital is a top priority for investment.
• Digital organization: Leaders are 14.5 times more likely than bottom-quartile companies to centralize digital management, and five times more likely to have a stand-alone, properly staffed analytics team. Top-quartile firms are also 70 percent more likely than bottom-quartile firms to say their CEO is “supportive and directly engaged” in digital initiatives.
• Digital capabilities: Leaders are 2.6 times more likely than bottom-quartile firms to use digital tools to manage customer relationships and 2.5 times more likely to use digital tools to coordinate the management of their core business operations.

The gap between digital leaders and other firms is not insurmountable. In some cases, even when the gap is large, lagging companies may be able to begin closing it by digitizing in small, relatively simple ways. Social media marketing is a good example. While bottom-quartile firms are much less likely than leaders to use social media, e-commerce, or listing platforms, each of these channels is cheap and easily accessible and there is little to stop a business owner with a high-speed internet connection and a smartphone from taking advantage of them.

For now, large companies (defined in our survey as having revenue greater than 5 billion rupees, or about $70 million) are more likely to have the financial resources and expertise needed to invest in some advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things. But growing high-speed internet connectivity and falling data costs may soon make some of these technologies available to small-business owners and even sole proprietors.

Indeed, our survey found small businesses are ahead of big companies in terms of accepting digital payments: 94 percent accept payment by debit or credit card, compared with only 79 percent of big companies; for digital wallets the difference was 78 percent versus 49 percent.

Our survey found 70 percent of small businesses use their own websites to reach clients, compared with 82 percent of big companies. Small businesses are less likely than big companies to buy display ads on the web (37 percent versus 66 percent), but they are ahead of big companies in connecting with customers via social media, and more likely to use search-engine optimization. More than 60 percent of the small firms surveyed use LinkedIn to hire talent, and about half believe that most of their employees today need basic digital skills. While only 51 percent of smaller firms said they “extensively” sell goods and services on their websites (compared with 73 percent of big businesses), small businesses use e-commerce platforms and other digital sales channels just as much as large firms and are equally likely to receive orders through digital means like WhatsApp.

Companies that innovate and digitize rapidly will be better placed to take advantage of India’s large, connected market, which could include up to 700 million smartphone users and 840 million internet users by 2023. In the context of rapidly improving technology and falling data costs, technology-enabled business models could become pervasive over the next decade. That will likely create significant economic value.

We consider economic impact in three broad areas. First are core digital sectors, such as IT-BPM, digital communications, and electronics manufacturing. Second are newly digitizing sectors such as financial services, agriculture, healthcare, logistics, and manufacturing, which are not traditionally considered part of India’s digital economy but have the potential to rapidly adopt new technologies. Third are government services and labor markets, which can use digital technologies in new ways.

Core digital sectors could double their GDP contribution by 2025

India’s core digital sectors accounted for about $170 billion—or 7 percent—of GDP in 2017–18. This comprises value added from core digital sectors: $115 billion from IT-BPM, $45 billion from digital communications, and $10 billion from electronics manufacturing. Based on industry revenue, cost structures, and growth trends, we estimate these sectors could grow significantly faster than GDP: value-added contribution in 2025 could range from $205 billion to $250 billion for IT-BPM, from $100 billion to $130 billion for electronics manufacturing, and $50 billion to $55 billion for digital communications. The total, between $355 billion and $435 billion, may account for 8 to 10 percent of India’s 2025 GDP.

Newly digitizing sectors are already creating added value

Alongside these already digitized sectors, India stands to create more value if it can nurture new and emerging digital ecosystems in sectors such as agriculture, education, energy, financial services, healthcare, and logistics. The benefits of digital applications in each of these newly digitizing sectors are already visible. For example, in logistics, tracking vehicles in real time has enabled shippers to reduce fleet turnaround time by 50 to 70 percent . Similarly, digitized supply chains help companies reduce their inventory by up to 20 percent. Farmers can cut the cost of growing crops by 15 to 20 percent using data on soil conditions that enables them to minimize the use of fertilizers and other inputs.

Digital can improve government services and the efficiency of India’s job market

Digital technologies can also create significant value in areas such as government services and the job market. Moving government subsidy transfers, procurement, and other transactions online can enhance public-sector efficiency and productivity, while creating online labor marketplaces could considerably improve the efficiency of India’s fragmented and largely informal job market.

To unlock this value will require widespread adoption and implementation. The economic value will be proportionate to the extent digital applications permeate production processes, from supply chains to delivery channels. Our estimates of potential economic value depend on each sector’s digital adoption rate by 2025; where the readiness of India’s firms and government agencies is low and significant effort will be required to catalyze broad-based digitization, adoption may be low, between 20 to 40 percent of the potential. Where private-sector readiness is high and government policy already supports large-scale digitization, adoption could be as high as 60 to 80 percent.

In all, we estimate that India’s newly digitizing sectors have the potential to create sizable economic value by 2025: from $130 billion to $170 billion in financial services, including digital payments; $50 billion to $65 billion in agriculture; $25 billion to $35 billion each in retail and e-commerce, logistics and transportation; and $10 billion in energy and healthcare (Exhibit 5). Digitizing more government services and benefit transfers could yield economic value of $20 billion to $40 billion, while digital skill-training and job-market platforms could yield up to $70 billion. While these ranges underscore large potential value, realization of this value is not guaranteed: losing momentum on government policies that enable the digital economy would mean India could realize less than half of the potential value by 2025.

Digital can create jobs but will require new skills and some labor redeployment

Changes brought by digital adoption will disrupt India’s labor force as well as its industries. We estimate that as many as 60 million to 65 million new jobs could be created from the direct and indirect impact of productivity-boosting digital applications. These jobs could be enabled in industries as diverse as construction and manufacturing, agriculture, trade and hotels, IT-BPM, finance, media and telecom, and transport and logistics.

However, some work will be automated or rendered obsolete. We estimate that all or parts of 40 million to 45 million existing jobs could be affected by 2025. These include data-entry operators, bank tellers, clerks, and insurance claims- and policy-processing staff. Millions of people who currently hold these positions will need to be retrained and redeployed.

Jobs of the future will be more skill-intensive. Along with rising demand for skills in emerging digital technologies (such as the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and 3-D printing), demand for higher cognitive, social, and emotional skills , such as creativity, unstructured problem solving, teamwork, and communication, will also increase. These are skills that machines, for now, are unable to master. As the technology evolves and develops, individuals will need to constantly learn and relearn marketable skills throughout their lifetime. India will need to create affordable and effective education and training programs at scale, not just for new job market entrants but also for midcareer workers.

To capture the potential economic value that we size at a macro level, businesses will need to deliver digital technologies at a micro level: that is, how they use digital technologies to fundamentally alter day-to-day activities.

Three digital forces will drive these shifts: One is the greater ease with which people can connect, collaborate, transact, and share information; another is the opportunity for companies to increase productivity by automating routine tasks; the third is the greater ease with which organizations can analyze data to make insights and improve decision making.

The interplay of these forces will create new data ecosystems, which in turn will spur new products, services, and channels in virtually every business sector, and create economic value for consumers as well as those members of the ecosystem that best adapt their business models.

To highlight the kinds of business model changes that companies should predict and prepare for, we examine how this connect-automate-analyze trio can play out across four sectors: agriculture, healthcare, retail, and logistics.

Digital agriculture

India’s farms are small, averaging a little more than one hectare in size, with yields ranging from 50 to 90 percent of those in Brazil, China, and other developing economies. Many factors contribute to this. Indian farmers have a dearth of farm machinery and relatively little data on soil, weather, and other variables. Poor storage and logistics allows produce to go to waste before reaching consumers— $15 billion worth in 2013.

Digital technology can alter this ecosystem in several ways. Precision advisory services—using real-time granular data to optimize inputs such as fertilizer and pesticides—can increase yields by 15 percent or more. After harvest, farmers could use online marketplaces to transact with a larger pool of potential buyers. One such platform, the government’s electronic National Agriculture Market, has helped farmers increase revenue by up to 15 percent . Furthermore, online banking can provide the financial data farmers need to qualify for cheaper bank credit. Digital land records can make crop insurance more available. These and other digital innovations in Indian agriculture can help add $50 billion to $65 billion of economic value by 2025.

Digital healthcare

India has too few doctors, not enough hospital beds, and a low share of state spending on healthcare relative to GDP. While life expectancy has risen to 68.3 years from 37 in 1951, the country still ranks 125th among all nations on this parameter. Indian women are three times as likely to die in childbirth as women in Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa—and ten times as likely as women in the United States.

Digital solutions can help alleviate the shortage of medical professionals by making doctors and nurses more productive. Telemedicine, for example, enables doctors to consult with patients over a digital voice or video link rather in person; this could allow them to see more patients overall and permit doctors in cities to serve patients in rural areas. Telemedicine could also be more cost effective: in trials and pilots, it cut consultation costs by about 30 percent. If telemedicine replaced 30 to 40 percent of in-person outpatient consultations, coupled with digitization in overall healthcare industry, India could save up to $10 billion in 2025.

Digital retail

More than 80 percent of all retail outlets in India—most of them sole proprietors or mom-and-pop shops—operate in the cash-driven informal economy. These businesses do not generate the financial records needed to apply for bank loans, limiting their growth potential. Large retailers have their own sets of challenges. Their reliance on manual store operations and high inventory levels is capital heavy. In many cases, their marketing practices are ineffective, and their prices are static regardless of inventory or demand.

Digital solutions could reshape much of the sector. E-commerce enables retailers to expand without capital-intensive physical stores. Some do not even bother with their own website, relying instead on third-party sites such as Amazon, which offer large, ready pools of shoppers along with logistics, inventory, and payment services, and customer data analytics. E-commerce creates financial records that attest to the creditworthiness of both buyers and sellers, making it cheaper to borrow. Digital marketing can inexpensively engage customers and build brand loyalty. We estimate e-commerce in India will grow faster than sales at brick-and-mortar outlets, allowing digital retail to increase its share of trade from 5 percent now to about 15 percent by 2025.

Digital logistics

India’s economy has grown by at least 6.5 percent annually for the last 20 years. Continuing at that pace of growth would challenge India’s logistics network, which already suffers from a fragmented trucking industry, inadequate railways infrastructure, and a shortage of warehousing. India spends about 14 percent of GDP on logistics, compared with 8 percent in the United States, according to McKinsey estimates.

Digital technology can disrupt even this traditional, physical sector. The government is creating a transactional e-marketplace, the National Logistics Platform , to connect shipping agencies, inland container depots, port authorities, banks, insurers, customs officials, and railways managers. By letting stakeholders share information and coordinate plans, the platform may speed up deliveries, reduce inventory requirements, and smooth order processing. At the same time, private firms are using digital technologies to streamline operations by moving freight booking online, automating customer service, installing tracking devices to monitor cargo movements, using real-time weather and traffic data to map efficient routes, and equipping trucks with internet-linked sensors to alert dispatchers when a vehicle needs servicing. According to McKinsey estimates, digital interventions that result in higher system efficiency and better asset utilization can reduce logistics cost by 15 to 25 percent.

For India to reap the full benefits of digitization—and minimize the pain of transitioning to a digital economy—business leaders, government officials, and individual citizens will need to play distinct roles while also working together.

Business leaders will need to assess how and where digital may disrupt their company and industry and set priorities for how to adapt. Potential disruptions and benefits may be particularly large in India because of its scale, the rapid pace of digitization, and its relatively low productivity in many sectors. To benefit from these changes, companies need to act quickly and decisively to both adapt existing business models and to digitize internal operations. In this context, four imperatives stand out.

First, companies will need to take smart risks as they adapt current business models and adopt new, disruptive ones. Only 46 percent of Indian companies in our survey have an organization-wide plan to change their core operations to react to large-scale disruption.

Second, digital should be front of mind as executives plan. Customers are more digitally literate and have come to expect the convenience and speed of digital, whether shopping online or questioning a bill, but many companies have not reacted. In our survey, 80 percent of firms cite digital as a “top priority,” but only 41 percent say their digital strategy is fully integrated with their overall strategy.

Indian companies will need to invest in building digital capabilities, especially hiring people with the skills needed to start and accelerate a digital transformation.

Third, Indian companies will need to invest in building digital capabilities, especially hiring people with the skills needed to start and accelerate a digital transformation. That is challenging because many of India’s most talented workers emigrate. Companies could work with universities to recruit and develop skilled workers, beginning with digital natives who are currently in universities or have recently finished their studies. Companies also need to build deeper technology understanding and capabilities at all levels, including in the C-suite.

Finally, firms will need to be agile and think of themselves as digital-first organizations. This may need a new attitude that starts with a “test and learn” mind-set that encourages rapid iteration and has a high tolerance for failure and redeployment.

India’s government has done much to encourage digital progress, from rationalizing regulations to improving infrastructure to launching Digital India, an ambitious initiative to double the size of the country’s digital economy. However, much needs to be done for India to realize its full potential.

National and state governments can help by partnering with the private sector to drive digitization, starting by putting the technology at the core of their operations. This helps by providing a market for digital solutions, which generates revenue for providers, encourages digital start-ups, and gives individuals more reasons to go online—whether to receive a cooking-gas subsidy, register a property purchase, or access any other government service.

Governments also can help by creating and administering public data sources that entrepreneurs can use to improve existing products and services and create new ones; by fostering a regulatory environment that supports digital adoption and protects citizens’ privacy; and by facilitating the evolution of labor markets in industries disrupted by automation.

Individuals

Individual Indians are already reaping the benefits of digitization as consumers, but they will need to be cognizant that its disruptive powers can affect their lives and work in other fundamental ways. For example, they will need to be aware of how digitally driven automation may change their work and what skills they will need to thrive in the future. Individuals will also need to become stewards of their personal data and skeptical consumers of information.

While India’s public and private sectors have propelled the country into the forefront of the world’s consumers of internet and digital applications over the past few years, its digitization story is far from over.

Navigating the emerging digital landscape will not be easy, but it is one of the golden keys to India’s future growth and prosperity. Unlocking the opportunities will be a challenge for the government, for businesses large and small, and for individual Indians, and there will be pain along with gains. But if India can accelerate its digital growth trajectory, the rewards will be palpable to millions of businesses and hundreds of millions of its citizens.

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India’s Target of $5 Trillion Economy

• We are now $3.3 trillion as per the data.

More about the news

• There are mixed opinions about India’s economic potential for target achievement.
• A study conducted by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) shows that the targets are easily attainable by following the bottom-up approach recommended by the Department of Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) .
• A working group constituted by DPIIT proposed to treat districts as the primary unit for planning and policy interventions so that they contribute to the accelerated growth of the Indian economy. 
• Prepare strategies for the districts centred around their local strengths and economic activities .
• NCAER notes that local communities and resources hold the key to India’s economic growth. 
• Finding potential sectors of growth; 
• Implementing actions, such as assessing capacities of the district and identifying potential investors and sites for undertaking growth activities; 
• Offering support to the district development unit as well as recommendations for course correction ; and 
• Sharing the findings with local communities or the target groups .
• These areas of economic growth can then be implemented by leveraging existing central- or state-sponsored government schemes, notes NCAER.

Possible Challenges

• Economic activity had come to a grinding halt due to the lockdown imposed to prevent the spread of COCID-19.
• Not easy to reach $5 trillion by 2024-25 with present Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is only close to $2 trillion
• The World Bank has cut India’s economic growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.5% as rising inflation , supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions taper recovery.
• Other Factors: Threat of rising inequality, Possibility of egregious consequences in trying to achieve growth etc.

More ways to achieve the target

• In order to achieve the USD five trillion economy, growth which is the answer to many socio economic problems should become the undivided concern of the government and equity which is equally important will be a distant dream unless high growth spurred by reforms support it.
• India needs a faster growth rate to make up for the loss of output in the previous two years from the trend rate and must lay the foundation for faster growth in this year itself.
• As revenues improve, expenditures can be increased even as there is no need to reduce the fiscal deficit below the budgeted level of 6.8 percent of GDP
• A key channel through which the manufacturing sector could be rejuvenated is by increasing the number of countries participating in Global Value Chains (GVCs) .
• There is a need for dedicated efforts to narrow the knowledge gap.
• Deep and wide-ranging structural reforms in the financial sector, power & foreign trade are the need of the hour. 
• Also, reforms in cooperation with the states are also urgent in health, education, labour and land, which are all primarily state subjects.

Editorial Analysis

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India to Become Fifth Largest Economy in 2025

• 29 Dec 2020
• GS Paper - 3
• Growth & Development

Why in News

A recent report published by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CBER) has predicted that India will again overtake the UK to become the fifth largest economy in 2025 and race to the third spot by 2030.

• CBER is a UK based company that gives independent economic forecasts for public and private firms.
• The Indian economy will expand by 9% in 2021 and by 7% in 2022.
• This growth trajectory will see India become the world’s third largest economy by 2030, overtaking the UK in 2025, Germany in 2027 and Japan in 2030.
• China in 2028 will overtake the USA to become the world’s biggest economy, five years earlier than previously estimated due to the contrasting recoveries of the two countries from the Covid-19 pandemic.
• Japan would remain the world’s third-biggest economy, until the early 2030s when it would be overtaken by India, pushing Germany down from fourth to fifth.
• The five economies ahead are the United States, China, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom respectively.
• The rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth sank to a more than ten-year low of 4.2% in 2019.
• Slowing growth has been a consequence of a confluence of factors including fragility in the banking system, adjustment to reforms ( Demonetisation , GST) and a deceleration of global trade.
• GDP in Q2 (April-June) 2020 was 23.9% below its 2019 level, indicating that nearly a quarter of the country’s economic activity was wiped out by the drying up of global demand and the collapse of domestic demand that accompanied the series of strict national lockdowns.
• As the manufacturer of the majority of the world’s vaccines and with a 42-year-old vaccination programme (Universal Immunisation Programme) that targets 55 million people each year, India is better placed than many other developing countries to roll out the vaccines successfully and efficiently next year.
• However, with the majority of the Indian workforce employed in the agricultural sector, the reform process requires a delicate and gradual approach that balances the need for longer-term efficiency gains with the need to support incomes in the short-term.
• Therefore, the outlook for the economy going forwards will be closely related to the government’s approach to infrastructure spending.

India Vision 2050

This paper presents a Vision of a developed India in 2050. Two objectives drive this vision. One is fast catch-up growth that closes the gap with countries which were at the same stage of development as India in the 1960s & 1970s but have moved ahead since then. An understanding and utilization of global & domestic trends is critical to fast growth, which can be used by Indian government and its people to leapfrog to a better life. The second is equality of opportunity for every Indian citizen based on personal motivation & inherent capabilities. Equal access to quality education, skills, public goods, social and governance services is critical to both these objectives. Provision of social services to 1.6 billion Indians, at the quality available to 1.3 billion citizens of the Developed countries, is only possible in 30 years through comprehensive use of digital systems like e-governance, e-learning, tele- medicine, and artificial intelligence. We envision a Hybrid architecture which marries India’s vast human resources to a pervasive digital infrastructure to accelerate structural transformation and inclusive growth. Government will ensure the provision of hard & soft infrastructure to every habitation in India, develop a policy structure that creates competitive markets in which private entrepreneurs can innovate and thrive, and a welfare system that protects the weak & vulnerable while giving ample scope for civil society to provide a multiplicity of non-marketable services. The key policy & institutional reforms required are also discussed.

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Vision for India in 2047 Essay – 10 Lines, 100, 500, 1000 Words

• Entrance Exams
• November 6, 2023

India in 2047 Essay in English – As India approaches its centenary of independence in 2047, a vision of an advanced, thriving nation emerges. A harmonious blend of tradition and modernity, the India of 2047 embodies progress and inclusivity.

Here are few sample essays on “ India in 2047 “. Envisioning India’s progress in the next 24 years is an exciting prospect. This article delves into the nation’s envisioned future across different essay lengths: 10 lines, 100 words, 500 words, and 1000 words.

India in 2047 Essay in 10 Lines

In 2047, India stands as a vibrant and progressive nation, celebrating its centenary of independence with immense pride and unity. The country has achieved remarkable economic growth, becoming one of the world’s leading economies. Technological advancements have transformed India into a hub of innovation, with cutting-edge research and development in various fields.

• In 2047, India will celebrate its 100 years of independence, marking a century of progress and development.
• India aims to achieve a high standard of living and improved nutrition, focusing on the overall well-being of its people.
• The nation envisions eradicating poverty, corruption, and social disparities, ensuring equal opportunities for all citizens.
• Women’s empowerment and gender equality will be fundamental principles, fostering a society where women are self-reliant and influential. And Equality should prevail regardless of caste, color, gender, or religion.
• Every child will have access to quality education, and child labor will be completely eradicated.
• India aspires to be a peaceful and harmonious nation, promoting understanding and unity among its diverse religious and cultural communities.
• Environmental sustainability is a priority, with a focus on renewable energy and conservation.
• The nation aims for self-sufficiency in food production and energy, ensuring stability and security in these crucial sectors.
• Technological innovation and scientific advancements will propel India to the forefront of global progress, contributing significantly to various fields.
• Ultimately, India’s vision for 2047 is to emerge as a compassionate, inclusive, and prosperous nation, setting an example for the world with its achievements and ideals.

Also See – As One Journey Ends Another Begins Essay in English – 10 Lines & 500 Words

500 Words Essay on My Vision for India in 2047

In 2047, India envisions a future of prosperity and progress on multiple fronts. Technological advancements will have revolutionized the nation, positioning it as a global powerhouse in innovation.

Introduction

India, with its rich history, cultural diversity, and resilience, is poised for a transformative future in 2047, on the centenary of its independence. My vision for India in 2047 is one where the nation stands as a global leader in various aspects, reflecting progress, inclusivity, and sustainable development. This vision encompasses economic prosperity, technological innovation, social harmony, and environmental sustainability.

Economic Prosperity

In 2047, I envision India as an economic powerhouse, with a thriving and inclusive economy. The GDP has surged to unprecedented levels, driven by a robust manufacturing sector, a burgeoning services industry, and a vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem. The nation has managed to strike a balance between economic growth and social welfare, ensuring that wealth is distributed equitably.

• Shift to Renewable Energy: India in 2047 will lead the world in sustainable energy. A significant focus will be on transitioning to renewable energy sources, reducing pollution, and promoting clean technologies to combat climate change.
• Advanced Transportation: In 2047, India will boast an efficient and eco-friendly transportation system. Modern infrastructure, smart cities, and green public transport will alleviate traffic congestion and promote environmental sustainability.
• Technology Hub: India envisions itself as a global technology leader by 2047. It will be a hub for innovation, contributing to artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and space exploration, fostering economic growth and global recognition.
• Education Hub: India’s education system will undergo a holistic transformation, nurturing creativity and critical thinking. The nation will become a prominent education hub, ensuring quality education for all, fostering a skilled and empowered population.

Technological Innovation

India’s technological landscape in 2047 is marked by innovation and leadership. The country is at the forefront of cutting-edge technologies, such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and space exploration. Indian tech companies rival global giants, and the nation is recognized for its contributions to solving global challenges through innovation.

The digital divide has been eradicated, with every citizen having access to the internet and the latest technologies. Smart cities, advanced healthcare, and efficient transportation systems have become the norm, improving the quality of life for all.

Social Harmony and Inclusivity

My vision for India in 2047 prioritizes social harmony and inclusivity. The country has made significant strides in eradicating poverty and ensuring access to quality education and healthcare for all. The education system has been revamped, with a focus on holistic development, creativity, and critical thinking.

Gender equality is a cornerstone of this vision, with women actively participating in all sectors of society. India is a place where diverse communities coexist harmoniously, respecting each other’s cultures, languages, and traditions. Discrimination based on caste, religion, or gender is a thing of the past.

Environmental Sustainability

Environmental sustainability is a core pillar of my vision for India in 2047. The nation has adopted green technologies and renewable energy sources, significantly reducing pollution and its carbon footprint. Conservation efforts have protected natural habitats, and the country is a global leader in wildlife preservation and sustainable agriculture.

India’s commitment to environmental responsibility is evident in its actions to combat climate change, ensuring that future generations inherit a cleaner and healthier planet.

Global Leadership

In 2047, India has become a key player on the global stage. The nation actively engages in diplomacy to foster strong relationships with countries around the world. As a responsible nuclear power, India plays a significant role in promoting global peace and security.

Moreover, India actively participates in international organizations, addressing pressing global challenges, from climate change to poverty alleviation and healthcare access. It is a beacon of hope and a model of success for countries striving to achieve similar goals.

My vision for India in 2047 is one of progress, inclusivity, and sustainability. India has emerged as a global leader in economics, technology, social harmony, and environmental responsibility. As the nation celebrates its centenary of independence, it stands as an inspiration for the world, demonstrating that a diverse and vibrant country can achieve remarkable growth while prioritizing the well-being of its citizens and the planet. With the dedication of its people and leaders, India’s future is indeed bright and promising.

Short Essay on India@2047 – 100 Words

In 2047, India has emerged as a flourishing nation, marking its 100th year of independence with remarkable achievements. The country has become a global economic powerhouse, harnessing technological innovation and sustainable practices. Significant improvements in education, healthcare, and gender equality have raised the quality of life for its citizens.

In 2047, India stands as a testament to progress and transformation. A century after independence, it thrives in innovation and technology, leading the Fourth Industrial Revolution with a highly educated workforce. India’s economy is a powerhouse, attracting global investments. Its rich culture makes it a top tourist destination. Education and sustainability are priorities, eradicating poverty and discrimination.

India fosters peace, prosperity, and environmental responsibility. Overall, my vision for India in 2047 is one of prosperity, progress, sustainability, and social responsibility. By emphasizing education, innovation, and global cooperation, India can inspire and motivate the world. It is a beacon of hope, inspiring the world with its achievements, setting a path to a brighter future for all.

My Vision for India in 2047 Essay

My vision for India in 2047 is one of prosperity, inclusivity, and progress. In this vision, I see India as a global leader in various fields, from technology and education to environmental sustainability. We envision a nation where every citizen has access to quality education, healthcare, and employment opportunities, regardless of their background.

India, on the occasion of its centenary of independence in 2047, stands at the precipice of transformation and opportunity. It’s a nation that has journeyed through trials and triumphs, and my vision for India in 2047 is one of a thriving, inclusive, and prosperous country. As we look ahead, we envision a India that has overcome its challenges and become a global leader in multiple domains. This essay explores this vision across several key areas.

In 2047, India’s economy has risen to new heights. It is one of the world’s strongest, with a diverse and booming industrial sector, a dynamic services industry, and a robust agricultural foundation. The country is characterized by balanced growth and equitable wealth distribution.

The nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reflects this robust growth, with innovation and entrepreneurship driving economic success. India has emerged as a global business hub, attracting investments from all corners of the world. Smart economic policies, foreign investments, and a skilled workforce have played pivotal roles in this achievement.

My vision for India in 2047 prioritizes education as a cornerstone of progress. The country has undergone a transformation in its education system, with a focus on holistic development, critical thinking, and creativity. Quality education is now accessible to every child, regardless of their background.

India has become an education hub, with universities and institutions of higher learning that are world-renowned. The youth are empowered with knowledge and skills, making them competitive on the global stage. Continuous learning, research, and innovation are encouraged to foster intellectual growth.

India in 2047 places a high premium on the health and well-being of its citizens. The country has eradicated preventable diseases and improved access to healthcare services for all. A comprehensive healthcare system ensures that every individual, regardless of their socioeconomic status, has access to quality medical care.

Maternal and child health, in particular, have received special attention, resulting in reduced maternal and infant mortality rates. Public health awareness and preventive measures have led to a healthier and longer life expectancy for all Indians.

Caste Discrimination

My vision for India in 2047 is one of an egalitarian society where caste discrimination is relegated to the annals of history. The nation has made significant progress in addressing social inequalities. Strict legal measures and societal awareness have played pivotal roles in reducing discrimination based on caste, color, or creed.

The nation has witnessed increased social mobility and inter-caste marriages, fostering unity and inclusivity. India is a country where every individual has an equal opportunity to succeed, regardless of their background.

The agricultural sector, which has been the backbone of India for centuries, has seen significant changes in my vision for 2047. Farmers are the lifeline of the nation, and they are empowered with the latest farming techniques and technologies. The government has implemented policies that provide farmers with fair prices for their produce and protect their rights.

India’s agriculture is sustainable and environmentally responsible, prioritizing organic farming and reducing the use of harmful chemicals. The nation’s agricultural output is more than sufficient to meet its needs and contribute to global food security.

The Development of Numerous Fields

In 2047, India has witnessed the development of numerous fields that have propelled it to the forefront of global progress. Here are some key areas:

Science and Technology: India is a global leader in science and technology, with significant contributions in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, space exploration, and renewable energy. Indian scientists and researchers are at the forefront of groundbreaking discoveries and innovations, impacting various industries.

Infrastructure: The country’s infrastructure is state-of-the-art, featuring modern transportation systems, smart cities, and advanced healthcare facilities. This not only enhances the quality of life for the citizens but also makes India an attractive destination for foreign investors and tourists.

Culture and Tourism: India’s rich cultural heritage is celebrated and preserved. The nation continues to be a top tourist destination, attracting travelers from around the world. Its cultural diversity is a source of pride and unity among its people.

Green Initiatives: India has embraced sustainability and environmental responsibility. The adoption of green technologies and renewable energy sources has significantly reduced pollution and the nation’s carbon footprint. India is a global leader in wildlife preservation, conservation, and sustainable agriculture.

Social Harmony: India stands as a model of social harmony, where different religions and cultures coexist peacefully. Religious and cultural diversity is celebrated, and the nation’s festivals and traditions are a source of unity and joy.

Science and Technology

Science and technology are integral to my vision for India in 2047. The country has invested heavily in research and development, fostering innovation and scientific breakthroughs. India is a global leader in various scientific fields, contributing to solutions for global challenges.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution is in full swing, and India is at its forefront. The nation actively participates in technological advancements such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and space exploration. Indian tech companies rival global giants, and the country is recognized as a hub for innovation and entrepreneurship.

In 2047, India has successfully addressed the issue of unemployment by creating ample job opportunities across various sectors. The economic growth, technological advancements, and a skilled workforce have led to low unemployment rates. The government’s proactive approach to job creation and the promotion of entrepreneurship have fueled this success.

India is a place where every individual has the chance to contribute to the nation’s growth and prosperity. The nation’s youth are empowered with the skills and knowledge to thrive in the job market and pursue their entrepreneurial aspirations.

Corruption-Free

My vision for India in 2047 includes a nation that is corruption-free. India has implemented stringent anti-corruption measures and established a transparent and accountable government. These efforts have significantly reduced corruption at all levels of society, promoting a culture of integrity and honesty.

The elimination of corruption has enhanced the efficiency of government services and improved the overall quality of life for the citizens. It has also made India an attractive destination for business and investment, fostering economic growth and development.

Environmental sustainability is a central theme of my vision for India in 2047. The nation has taken significant steps to reduce pollution and its environmental impact. Green technologies, renewable energy sources, and conservation efforts have significantly lowered pollution levels and carbon emissions.

India is committed to being one of the cleanest countries in the world. Efforts to preserve natural habitats, wildlife, and promote sustainable agriculture have led to a healthier and more ecologically balanced environment.

In 2047, my vision for India is one of a nation that has overcome its challenges and harnessed its potential for transformation. The country has become a global leader in economics, science and technology, education, and environmental sustainability. It prioritizes the well-being of its citizens, with a focus on eradicating poverty, discrimination, and corruption. India celebrates its cultural diversity, fosters social harmony, and sets an example for the world in various fields.

As India celebrates its centenary of independence, it stands as an inspiration to the world, showcasing the power of determination and collective effort in shaping a brighter future for all its citizens. The vision for India in 2047 is a testament to the nation’s potential and a source of hope for generations to come.

Through these efforts and ideas, we hope to create a brighter, more equitable future for all Indians by the year 2047. From our @ Examupdates  site students can learn  essay  on different topics and boost their essay writing skills.

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CBSE 2025: Class 10, 12 Sample Papers Expected Soon, Major Changes In Exam Pattern Unveiled

The Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE) is expected to release the sample papers for the Class 10 and 12 Board Exams 2024-25 soon. The board exams for this academic year are scheduled to commence on February 15, 2025.

These sample papers are crucial as they provide insights into the type of questions that students might encounter, as well as the overall paper pattern for the exams. With the recent changes in the paper pattern for Class 12, many students, parents, and teachers are eagerly anticipating the release of the official sample papers.

In previous years, CBSE has typically released the sample papers for both Class 10 and 12 by July. However, this year, the delay has caused some anxiety among teachers and parents who are keen to help students prepare effectively. According to Times Now, the board is expected to release the sample papers shortly. While waiting, here's a brief overview of the expected paper patterns for the 2025 board exams for Classes 10 and 12.

CBSE Class 10 Sample Papers - Exam Pattern

For the Class 10 Board Examinations 2025, the paper pattern remains unchanged from the previous year. The syllabus has also not been revised, which means that the 2024 sample papers can still serve as a reference for students. Despite some rumours about an increase in multiple-choice questions (MCQs) to 50 per cent, the official paper pattern clarifies that only 20 per cent of the questions will be MCQs. Additionally, 50 per cent of the questions will be competency-based, which may include MCQs as well as other formats.

Since there have been no changes to the paper pattern, the structure of the questions is expected to remain consistent. Based on the 2024 sample papers, students can anticipate approximately 20 MCQs per subject. For those seeking further guidance, previous years' sample papers are available on the official CBSE academic website at cbseacademic.nic.in.

It's important to note that while the basic structure of the paper has not changed, the total number of questions may vary. Therefore, it's advisable for students to wait for the official 2025 sample papers before investing in any new study materials.

CBSE Class 12 Sample Papers - Exam Pattern

The paper pattern for the Class 12 Board Examinations 2025 has undergone significant changes, as announced in a circular released by CBSE on April 3, 2024. The most notable change is the increase in competency-based questions, which will now account for 50 per cent of the paper's weightage, up from 40 per cent in the previous year. While the proportion of MCQs will remain unchanged, the percentage of short and long-answer-type questions will decrease from 40 per cent to 30 per cent.

These changes are likely to affect the overall structure of the question papers. Although the CBSE has not yet provided an official release date for the sample papers, they are expected to be available by the first week of September.

The topic-wise weightage will remain the same, ensuring continuity in the areas of focus for students. Parents and students are advised to keep a close watch on the official CBSE website and cbseacademic.nic.in for the latest updates.

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Is India a Safe Place for Women? Another Brutal Killing Raises the Question.

The rape and murder of a trainee doctor at her own hospital has brought up, once again, uncomfortable truths about a country that wants to be a global leader.

By Anupreeta Das and Sameer Yasir

In December 2012, a 23-year-old physiotherapy student boarded a bus in New Delhi a little after 9 p.m., expecting it would take her home. Instead, she was gang-raped and assaulted so viciously with an iron rod that her intestines were damaged. She died days later as India erupted in rage.

Nearly 12 years later, the nation is convulsing with anger once again — this time, over the ghastly rape and murder of a 31-year-old trainee doctor in a Kolkata hospital, as she rested in a seminar room after a late-night shift. Since the Aug. 9 killing, thousands of doctors have gone on strike to demand a safer work environment and thousands more people have taken to the streets to demand justice.

For a country desperate to be seen as a global leader, repeated high-profile cases of brutal sexual assaults highlight an uncomfortable truth: India, by many measures , remains one of the world’s most unsafe places for women. Rape and domestic violence are relatively common, and conviction rates are low.

This week, the Supreme Court of India took up the Kolkata case as one of fundamental rights and safety, questioning how hospital administrators and police officers had handled it and saying new protective measures were needed. “The nation cannot wait for another rape and murder for real changes on the ground,” Chief Justice D.Y. Chandrachud said.

Gender-related violence is hardly unique to India. But even as millions of Indian women have joined the urban work force in the past decade, securing their financial independence and helping to fuel the country’s rapid growth, they are still often left to bear the burden of their own safety.

Longstanding customs that both repress women and in many cases confine them to the home have made their safety in public spaces an afterthought. It can be dangerous for a woman to use public transportation, especially at night, and sexual harassment occurs frequently on the streets and in offices. Mothers tell their daughters to be watchful. Brothers and husbands drop their sisters and wives off at work.

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• Copy URL https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-warnings-from-democrats-about-project-2025-and-donald-trump

Fact-checking warnings from Democrats about Project 2025 and Donald Trump

This fact check originally appeared on PolitiFact .

Project 2025 has a starring role in this week’s Democratic National Convention.

And it was front and center on Night 1.

WATCH: Hauling large copy of Project 2025, Michigan state Sen. McMorrow speaks at 2024 DNC

“This is Project 2025,” Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, D-Royal Oak, said as she laid a hardbound copy of the 900-page document on the lectern. “Over the next four nights, you are going to hear a lot about what is in this 900-page document. Why? Because this is the Republican blueprint for a second Trump term.”

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, has warned Americans about “Trump’s Project 2025” agenda — even though former President Donald Trump doesn’t claim the conservative presidential transition document.

“Donald Trump wants to take our country backward,” Harris said July 23 in Milwaukee. “He and his extreme Project 2025 agenda will weaken the middle class. Like, we know we got to take this seriously, and can you believe they put that thing in writing?”

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate, has joined in on the talking point.

“Don’t believe (Trump) when he’s playing dumb about this Project 2025. He knows exactly what it’ll do,” Walz said Aug. 9 in Glendale, Arizona.

Trump’s campaign has worked to build distance from the project, which the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, led with contributions from dozens of conservative groups.

Much of the plan calls for extensive executive-branch overhauls and draws on both long-standing conservative principles, such as tax cuts, and more recent culture war issues. It lays out recommendations for disbanding the Commerce and Education departments, eliminating certain climate protections and consolidating more power to the president.

Project 2025 offers a sweeping vision for a Republican-led executive branch, and some of its policies mirror Trump’s 2024 agenda, But Harris and her presidential campaign have at times gone too far in describing what the project calls for and how closely the plans overlap with Trump’s campaign.

PolitiFact researched Harris’ warnings about how the plan would affect reproductive rights, federal entitlement programs and education, just as we did for President Joe Biden’s Project 2025 rhetoric. Here’s what the project does and doesn’t call for, and how it squares with Trump’s positions.

Are Trump and Project 2025 connected?

To distance himself from Project 2025 amid the Democratic attacks, Trump wrote on Truth Social that he “knows nothing” about it and has “no idea” who is in charge of it. (CNN identified at least 140 former advisers from the Trump administration who have been involved.)

The Heritage Foundation sought contributions from more than 100 conservative organizations for its policy vision for the next Republican presidency, which was published in 2023.

Project 2025 is now winding down some of its policy operations, and director Paul Dans, a former Trump administration official, is stepping down, The Washington Post reported July 30. Trump campaign managers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita denounced the document.

WATCH: A look at the Project 2025 plan to reshape government and Trump’s links to its authors

However, Project 2025 contributors include a number of high-ranking officials from Trump’s first administration, including former White House adviser Peter Navarro and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson.

A recently released recording of Russell Vought, a Project 2025 author and the former director of Trump’s Office of Management and Budget, showed Vought saying Trump’s “very supportive of what we do.” He said Trump was only distancing himself because Democrats were making a bogeyman out of the document.

Project 2025 wouldn’t ban abortion outright, but would curtail access

The Harris campaign shared a graphic on X that claimed “Trump’s Project 2025 plan for workers” would “go after birth control and ban abortion nationwide.”

The plan doesn’t call to ban abortion nationwide, though its recommendations could curtail some contraceptives and limit abortion access.

What’s known about Trump’s abortion agenda neither lines up with Harris’ description nor Project 2025’s wish list.

Project 2025 says the Department of Health and Human Services Department should “return to being known as the Department of Life by explicitly rejecting the notion that abortion is health care.”

It recommends that the Food and Drug Administration reverse its 2000 approval of mifepristone, the first pill taken in a two-drug regimen for a medication abortion. Medication is the most common form of abortion in the U.S. — accounting for around 63 percent in 2023.

If mifepristone were to remain approved, Project 2025 recommends new rules, such as cutting its use from 10 weeks into pregnancy to seven. It would have to be provided to patients in person — part of the group’s efforts to limit access to the drug by mail. In June, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected a legal challenge to mifepristone’s FDA approval over procedural grounds.

WATCH: Trump’s plans for health care and reproductive rights if he returns to White House The manual also calls for the Justice Department to enforce the 1873 Comstock Act on mifepristone, which bans the mailing of “obscene” materials. Abortion access supporters fear that a strict interpretation of the law could go further to ban mailing the materials used in procedural abortions, such as surgical instruments and equipment.

The plan proposes withholding federal money from states that don’t report to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention how many abortions take place within their borders. The plan also would prohibit abortion providers, such as Planned Parenthood, from receiving Medicaid funds. It also calls for the Department of Health and Human Services to ensure that the training of medical professionals, including doctors and nurses, omits abortion training.

The document says some forms of emergency contraception — particularly Ella, a pill that can be taken within five days of unprotected sex to prevent pregnancy — should be excluded from no-cost coverage. The Affordable Care Act requires most private health insurers to cover recommended preventive services, which involves a range of birth control methods, including emergency contraception.

Trump has recently said states should decide abortion regulations and that he wouldn’t block access to contraceptives. Trump said during his June 27 debate with Biden that he wouldn’t ban mifepristone after the Supreme Court “approved” it. But the court rejected the lawsuit based on standing, not the case’s merits. He has not weighed in on the Comstock Act or said whether he supports it being used to block abortion medication, or other kinds of abortions.

Project 2025 doesn’t call for cutting Social Security, but proposes some changes to Medicare

“When you read (Project 2025),” Harris told a crowd July 23 in Wisconsin, “you will see, Donald Trump intends to cut Social Security and Medicare.”

The Project 2025 document does not call for Social Security cuts. None of its 10 references to Social Security addresses plans for cutting the program.

Harris also misleads about Trump’s Social Security views.

In his earlier campaigns and before he was a politician, Trump said about a half-dozen times that he’s open to major overhauls of Social Security, including cuts and privatization. More recently, in a March 2024 CNBC interview, Trump said of entitlement programs such as Social Security, “There’s a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting.” However, he quickly walked that statement back, and his CNBC comment stands at odds with essentially everything else Trump has said during the 2024 presidential campaign.

Trump’s campaign website says that not “a single penny” should be cut from Social Security. We rated Harris’ claim that Trump intends to cut Social Security Mostly False.

Project 2025 does propose changes to Medicare, including making Medicare Advantage, the private insurance offering in Medicare, the “default” enrollment option. Unlike Original Medicare, Medicare Advantage plans have provider networks and can also require prior authorization, meaning that the plan can approve or deny certain services. Original Medicare plans don’t have prior authorization requirements.

The manual also calls for repealing health policies enacted under Biden, such as the Inflation Reduction Act. The law enabled Medicare to negotiate with drugmakers for the first time in history, and recently resulted in an agreement with drug companies to lower the prices of 10 expensive prescriptions for Medicare enrollees.

Trump, however, has said repeatedly during the 2024 presidential campaign that he will not cut Medicare.

Project 2025 would eliminate the Education Department, which Trump supports

The Harris campaign said Project 2025 would “eliminate the U.S. Department of Education” — and that’s accurate. Project 2025 says federal education policy “should be limited and, ultimately, the federal Department of Education should be eliminated.” The plan scales back the federal government’s role in education policy and devolves the functions that remain to other agencies.

Aside from eliminating the department, the project also proposes scrapping the Biden administration’s Title IX revision, which prohibits discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity. It also would let states opt out of federal education programs and calls for passing a federal parents’ bill of rights similar to ones passed in some Republican-led state legislatures.

Republicans, including Trump, have pledged to close the department, which gained its status in 1979 within Democratic President Jimmy Carter’s presidential Cabinet.

In one of his Agenda 47 policy videos, Trump promised to close the department and “to send all education work and needs back to the states.” Eliminating the department would have to go through Congress.

What Project 2025, Trump would do on overtime pay

In the graphic, the Harris campaign says Project 2025 allows “employers to stop paying workers for overtime work.”

The plan doesn’t call for banning overtime wages. It recommends changes to some Occupational Safety and Health Administration, or OSHA, regulations and to overtime rules. Some changes, if enacted, could result in some people losing overtime protections, experts told us.

The document proposes that the Labor Department maintain an overtime threshold “that does not punish businesses in lower-cost regions (e.g., the southeast United States).” This threshold is the amount of money executive, administrative or professional employees need to make for an employer to exempt them from overtime pay under the Fair Labor Standards Act.

In 2019, the Trump’s administration finalized a rule that expanded overtime pay eligibility to most salaried workers earning less than about $35,568, which it said made about 1.3 million more workers eligible for overtime pay. The Trump-era threshold is high enough to cover most line workers in lower-cost regions, Project 2025 said.

The Biden administration raised that threshold to $43,888 beginning July 1, and that will rise to $58,656 on Jan. 1, 2025. That would grant overtime eligibility to about 4 million workers, the Labor Department said.

It’s unclear how many workers Project 2025’s proposal to return to the Trump-era overtime threshold in some parts of the country would affect, but experts said some would presumably lose the right to overtime wages.

Other overtime proposals in Project 2025’s plan include allowing some workers to choose to accumulate paid time off instead of overtime pay, or to work more hours in one week and fewer in the next, rather than receive overtime.

Trump’s past with overtime pay is complicated. In 2016, the Obama administration said it would raise the overtime to salaried workers earning less than $47,476 a year, about double the exemption level set in 2004 of $23,660 a year.

But when a judge blocked the Obama rule, the Trump administration didn’t challenge the court ruling. Instead it set its own overtime threshold, which raised the amount, but by less than Obama.

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