financial forecast on business plan

Financial Forecast in a Business Plan

Written by True Tamplin, BSc, CEPF®

Reviewed by subject matter experts.

Updated on September 12, 2024

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Table of contents, what is a financial forecast in a business plan.

A financial forecast in a business plan is a projection of the expected financial performance of a company over a specific period, often annually or quarterly. It provides insights into anticipated revenues, expenses, capital investments, and cash flows.

Rooted in both historical data and assumptions about future market conditions, this forecast helps stakeholders, including investors, lenders, and company leaders, gauge the business's potential profitability and financial health.

By comparing actual financial results with the forecast, businesses can identify gaps, make informed decisions, and adjust strategies accordingly.

Moreover, a well-constructed financial forecast demonstrates the company's understanding of its market and adds credibility to the business plan, increasing the likelihood of securing investments or loans.

In essence, it's a vital tool for planning, budgeting, and ensuring that a business remains on a sustainable financial trajectory.

Components of a Financial Forecast in a Business Plan

Sales and revenue forecast.

Businesses thrive on sales. Projecting future sales provides a cornerstone to any financial forecast. By analyzing market trends, past sales data, and growth strategies, businesses can predict revenue inflows.

This, in turn, dictates everything from inventory purchases to hiring strategies. In the ever-evolving marketplace, an accurate sales forecast is integral for optimal resource allocation and to prevent overhead costs that can cripple an enterprise.

Expense Forecast

As businesses strategize for growth, understanding expenditures becomes crucial. These can be both fixed, like rents and salaries, and variable, such as utility bills or raw material costs.

External factors like inflation, geopolitical scenarios, and supply chain disruptions can also influence business expenses. Therefore, an accurate expense forecast not only ensures sustainability but also charts out profitability margins.

Profit and Loss Statement (P&L Forecast)

Herein lies the essence of any business—profits. The P&L forecast provides a clear picture of the company's anticipated net profit or loss over a set period.

Distinguishing between gross profit, operational profit, and net profit helps streamline operations and understand where the bulk of revenues or costs stem from. A keen eye on this forecast can lead to timely interventions, ensuring financial stability.

Cash Flow Forecast

Cash is the lifeblood of a business. The cash flow forecast paints a picture of a business's liquidity by tracking both incoming and outgoing cash.

A well-managed cash flow ensures operational sustainability. A business might be profitable on paper, but if it lacks the liquidity to manage its immediate expenses, it can face significant hurdles.

Balance Sheet Forecast

A forward-looking balance sheet gives stakeholders a snapshot of a company's projected financial health, encompassing assets, liabilities, and owner’s equity.

Regularly updating and reviewing the balance sheet forecast can assist businesses in making informed financial decisions, whether it's taking on debt or making significant investments.

Capital Expenditure Forecast

For businesses looking towards expansion or major investments, the capital expenditure forecast is indispensable. It involves predictions related to expenses on assets that will benefit the business in the long run, like machinery, buildings, or technology.

Crucially, evaluating the potential return on these investments ensures that they generate value over time.

Importance of Financial Forecast in a Business Plan

Guide business strategies.

Financial forecasts are not just passive documents; they drive action. The insights derived from these forecasts shape a company's tactical and strategic decisions, ensuring alignment with financial expectations and goals.

Secure External Funding

For startups or businesses looking to expand, external funding often becomes essential. A robust financial forecast showcases the business's potential to prospective investors or lenders, bolstering its credibility and signaling its viability.

Risk Management

Financial projections serve as an early warning system. They highlight potential financial pitfalls, allowing businesses to devise countermeasures.

Whether it's diversifying sources of income, cutting down on non-essential expenses, or hedging against market volatility, these forecasts empower businesses to navigate challenges proactively.

Monitor Business Health

By juxtaposing actual financial outcomes with forecasts, businesses can gauge their performance. Discrepancies can lead to course corrections, ensuring that the business remains aligned with its broader financial and operational objectives.

Methods and Tools for Creating a Financial Forecast in a Business Plan

Quantitative methods.

Numbers often tell a compelling story. Time series analysis, econometric models, and other statistical tools provide a quantitative means to chart out a business's future. These rely heavily on historical data and established market trends to make informed predictions.

Qualitative Methods

Sometimes, numbers need a human touch. Techniques like the Delphi method or expert judgment pool insights from professionals to make predictions, especially when historical data might not be a reliable indicator.

While these methods might lack the objective precision of quantitative models, they provide valuable subjective insights, especially in rapidly evolving industries.

Modern Forecasting Tools

The digital age has democratized forecasting. Several software solutions, from simplistic spreadsheet templates to sophisticated AI-driven models, empower businesses to automate their financial forecasting processes.

Integration capabilities, real-time data processing, and advanced analytics further enhance their efficacy.

Challenges of Financial Forecast in a Business Plan

External economic factors.

While businesses can control their operations, external factors often remain unpredictable. Market volatilities, geopolitical events, or global crises can disrupt even the most meticulous forecasts, underscoring the importance of adaptability.

Internal Business Changes

Organizational restructuring, strategy pivots, or product launches can significantly alter a company's financial trajectory. Such internal changes necessitate regular revisions of the financial forecast to ensure it remains reflective of the business's evolving landscape.

Inherent Uncertainty

The future remains, by nature, uncertain. Even the most sophisticated forecasting models rely on assumptions and estimates.

Recognizing this inherent unpredictability, businesses should adopt a flexible approach, regularly revisiting their forecasts and adjusting them in light of new data or changing circumstances.

A financial forecast in a business plan is an indispensable tool that projects a company's future financial performance, derived from both historical data and future assumptions.

Essential components include sales and revenue predictions, expense projections, and comprehensive statements like the P&L and balance sheet forecasts.

The objective is not just to track figures but to guide strategy, secure funding, manage risks, and constantly monitor the company's financial health.

While modern tools and quantitative methods provide precision, qualitative insights capture the nuances of rapidly changing industries.

Challenges like external economic shifts, internal business alterations, and the inherent uncertainty of predicting the future underline the importance of flexibility and adaptability.

In essence, a robust financial forecast not only charts a course for a company's growth but also ensures it remains agile in the face of both expected and unforeseen challenges.

Financial Forecast in a Business Plan FAQs

Why is a financial forecast in a business plan crucial for startups.

A Financial Forecast in a Business Plan helps startups anticipate revenues and expenses, allowing them to strategize operations, secure funding, and ensure financial sustainability from the onset.

How often should a company update its Financial Forecast in a Business Plan?

While the frequency may vary depending on the industry and market dynamics, it's generally recommended to revisit and update the Financial Forecast in a Business Plan at least annually or when significant internal or external changes occur.

Can I create a Financial Forecast in a Business Plan without prior financial data?

Yes, startups and new businesses often rely on industry benchmarks, market research, and qualitative methods to create a Financial Forecast in a Business Plan, even without historical financial data.

How accurate is the Financial Forecast in a Business Plan?

While every effort is made to ensure accuracy, a Financial Forecast in a Business Plan is based on assumptions, projections, and available data. External factors and unforeseen changes can affect outcomes, making it essential to revisit and adjust forecasts regularly.

What tools can I use to automate the Financial Forecast in a Business Plan?

There are various software solutions, ranging from spreadsheet templates to sophisticated AI-driven platforms, designed to help businesses automate and enhance the accuracy of their Financial Forecast in a Business.

About the Author

True Tamplin, BSc, CEPF®

True Tamplin is a published author, public speaker, CEO of UpDigital, and founder of Finance Strategists.

True is a Certified Educator in Personal Finance (CEPF®), author of The Handy Financial Ratios Guide , a member of the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing, contributes to his financial education site, Finance Strategists, and has spoken to various financial communities such as the CFA Institute, as well as university students like his Alma mater, Biola University , where he received a bachelor of science in business and data analytics.

To learn more about True, visit his personal website or view his author profiles on Amazon , Nasdaq and Forbes .

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Business Plan Financial Projections

Written by Dave Lavinsky

Financial projections are forecasted analyses of your business’ future that include income statements, balance sheets and cash flow statements. We have found them to be a crucial part of your business plan for the following reasons:

• They can help prove or disprove the viability of your business idea. For example, if your initial projections show your company will never make a sizable profit, your venture might not be feasible. Or, in such a case, you might figure out ways to raise prices, enter new markets, or streamline operations to make it profitable. 
• Financial projections give investors and lenders an idea of how well your business is likely to do in the future. They can give lenders the confidence that you’ll be able to comfortably repay their loan with interest. And for equity investors, your projections can give them faith that you’ll earn them a solid return on investment. In both cases, your projections can help you secure the funding you need to launch or grow your business.
• Financial projections help you track your progress over time and ensure your business is on track to meet its goals. For example, if your financial projections show you should generate $500,000 in sales during the year, but you are not on track to accomplish that, you’ll know you need to take corrective action to achieve your goal.

Below you’ll learn more about the key components of financial projections and how to complete and include them in your business plan.

What Are Business Plan Financial Projections?

Financial projections are an estimate of your company’s future financial performance through financial forecasting. They are typically used by businesses to secure funding, but can also be useful for internal decision-making and planning purposes. There are three main financial statements that you will need to include in your business plan financial projections:

1. Income Statement Projection

The income statement projection is a forecast of your company’s future revenues and expenses. It should include line items for each type of income and expense, as well as a total at the end.

There are a few key items you will need to include in your projection:

• Revenue: Your revenue projection should break down your expected sales by product or service, as well as by month. It is important to be realistic in your projections, so make sure to account for any seasonal variations in your business.
• Expenses: Your expense projection should include a breakdown of your expected costs by category, such as marketing, salaries, and rent. Again, it is important to be realistic in your estimates.
• Net Income: The net income projection is the difference between your revenue and expenses. This number tells you how much profit your company is expected to make.

Sample Income Statement

2. cash flow statement & projection.

The cash flow statement and projection are a forecast of your company’s future cash inflows and outflows. It is important to include a cash flow projection in your business plan, as it will give investors and lenders an idea of your company’s ability to generate cash.

There are a few key items you will need to include in your cash flow projection:

• The cash flow statement shows a breakdown of your expected cash inflows and outflows by month. It is important to be realistic in your projections, so make sure to account for any seasonal variations in your business.
• Cash inflows should include items such as sales revenue, interest income, and capital gains. Cash outflows should include items such as salaries, rent, and marketing expenses.
• It is important to track your company’s cash flow over time to ensure that it is healthy. A healthy cash flow is necessary for a successful business.

Sample Cash Flow Statements

3. balance sheet projection.

The balance sheet projection is a forecast of your company’s future financial position. It should include line items for each type of asset and liability, as well as a total at the end.

A projection should include a breakdown of your company’s assets and liabilities by category. It is important to be realistic in your projections, so make sure to account for any seasonal variations in your business.

It is important to track your company’s financial position over time to ensure that it is healthy. A healthy balance is necessary for a successful business.

Sample Balance Sheet

How to create financial projections.

Creating financial projections for your business plan can be a daunting task, but it’s important to put together accurate and realistic financial projections in order to give your business the best chance for success.  

Cost Assumptions

When you create financial projections, it is important to be realistic about the costs your business will incur, using historical financial data can help with this. You will need to make assumptions about the cost of goods sold, operational costs, and capital expenditures.

It is important to track your company’s expenses over time to ensure that it is staying within its budget. A healthy bottom line is necessary for a successful business.

Capital Expenditures, Funding, Tax, and Balance Sheet Items

You will also need to make assumptions about capital expenditures, funding, tax, and balance sheet items. These assumptions will help you to create a realistic financial picture of your business.

Capital Expenditures

When projecting your company’s capital expenditures, you will need to make a number of assumptions about the type of equipment or property your business will purchase. You will also need to estimate the cost of the purchase.

When projecting your company’s funding needs, you will need to make a number of assumptions about where the money will come from. This might include assumptions about bank loans, venture capital, or angel investors.

When projecting your company’s tax liability, you will need to make a number of assumptions about the tax rates that will apply to your business. You will also need to estimate the amount of taxes your company will owe.

Balance Sheet Items

When projecting your company’s balance, you will need to make a number of assumptions about the type and amount of debt your business will have. You will also need to estimate the value of your company’s assets and liabilities.

Financial Projection Scenarios

Write two financial scenarios when creating your financial projections, a best-case scenario, and a worst-case scenario. Use your list of assumptions to come up with realistic numbers for each scenario.

Presuming that you have already generated a list of assumptions, the creation of best and worst-case scenarios should be relatively simple. For each assumption, generate a high and low estimate. For example, if you are assuming that your company will have $100,000 in revenue, your high estimate might be $120,000 and your low estimate might be $80,000.

Once you have generated high and low estimates for all of your assumptions, you can create two scenarios: a best case scenario and a worst-case scenario. Simply plug the high estimates into your financial projections for the best-case scenario and the low estimates into your financial projections for the worst-case scenario.

Conduct a Ratio Analysis

A ratio analysis is a useful tool that can be used to evaluate a company’s financial health. Ratios can be used to compare a company’s performance to its industry average or to its own historical performance.

There are a number of different ratios that can be used in ratio analysis. Some of the more popular ones include the following:

• Gross margin ratio
• Operating margin ratio
• Return on assets (ROA)
• Return on equity (ROE)

To conduct a ratio analysis, you will need financial statements for your company and for its competitors. You will also need industry average ratios. These can be found in industry reports or on financial websites.

Once you have the necessary information, you can calculate the ratios for your company and compare them to the industry averages or to your own historical performance. If your company’s ratios are significantly different from the industry averages, it might be indicative of a problem.

Be Realistic

When creating your financial projections, it is important to be realistic. Your projections should be based on your list of assumptions and should reflect your best estimate of what your company’s future financial performance will be. This includes projected operating income, a projected income statement, and a profit and loss statement.

Your goal should be to create a realistic set of financial projections that can be used to guide your company’s future decision-making.

Sales Forecast

One of the most important aspects of your financial projections is your sales forecast. Your sales forecast should be based on your list of assumptions and should reflect your best estimate of what your company’s future sales will be.

Your sales forecast should be realistic and achievable. Do not try to “game” the system by creating an overly optimistic or pessimistic forecast. Your goal should be to create a realistic sales forecast that can be used to guide your company’s future decision-making.

Creating a sales forecast is not an exact science, but there are a number of methods that can be used to generate realistic estimates. Some common methods include market analysis, competitor analysis, and customer surveys.

Create Multi-Year Financial Projections

When creating financial projections, it is important to generate projections for multiple years. This will give you a better sense of how your company’s financial performance is likely to change over time.

It is also important to remember that your financial projections are just that: projections. They are based on a number of assumptions and are not guaranteed to be accurate. As such, you should review and update your projections on a regular basis to ensure that they remain relevant.

Creating financial projections is an important part of any business plan. However, it’s important to remember that these projections are just estimates. They are not guarantees of future success.

Business Plan Financial Projections FAQs

What is a business plan financial projection.

A business plan financial projection is a forecast of your company's future financial performance. It should include line items for each type of asset and liability, as well as a total at the end.

What are annual income statements? 

The Annual income statement is a financial document and a financial model that summarize a company's revenues and expenses over the course of a fiscal year. They provide a snapshot of a company's financial health and performance and can be used to track trends and make comparisons with other businesses.

What are the necessary financial statements?

The necessary financial statements for a business plan are an income statement, cash flow statement, and balance sheet.

How do I create financial projections?

You can create financial projections by making a list of assumptions, creating two scenarios (best case and worst case), conducting a ratio analysis, and being realistic.

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Run » finance, how to create a financial forecast for a startup business plan.

Financial forecasting allows you to measure the progress of your new business by benchmarking performance against anticipated sales and costs.

When starting a new business, a financial forecast is an important tool for recruiting investors as well as for budgeting for your first months of operating. A financial forecast is used to predict the cash flow necessary to operate the company day-to-day and cover financial liabilities.

Many lenders and investors ask for a financial forecast as part of a business plan; however, with no sales under your belt, it can be tricky to estimate how much money you will need to cover your expenses. Here’s how to begin creating a financial forecast for a new business.

[Read more: Startup 2021: Business Plan Financials ]

Start with a sales forecast

A sales forecast attempts to predict what your monthly sales will be for up to 18 months after launching your business. Creating a sales forecast without any past results is a little difficult. In this case, many entrepreneurs make their predictions using industry trends, market analysis demonstrating the population of potential customers and consumer trends. A sales forecast shows investors and lenders that you have a solid understanding of your target market and a clear vision of who will buy your product or service.

A sales forecast typically breaks down monthly sales by unit and price point. Beyond year two of being in business, the sales forecast can be shown quarterly, instead of monthly. Most financial lenders and investors like to see a three-year sales forecast as part of your startup business plan.

Lower fixed costs mean less risk, which might be theoretical in business schools but are very concrete when you have rent and payroll checks to sign.

Tim Berry, president and founder of Palo Alto Software

Create an expenses budget

An expenses budget forecasts how much you anticipate spending during the first years of operating. This includes both your overhead costs and operating expenses — any financial spending that you anticipate during the course of running your business.

Most experts recommend breaking down your expenses forecast by fixed and variable costs. Fixed costs are things such as rent and payroll, while variable costs change depending on demand and sales — advertising and promotional expenses, for instance. Breaking down costs into these two categories can help you better budget and improve your profitability.

"Lower fixed costs mean less risk, which might be theoretical in business schools but are very concrete when you have rent and payroll checks to sign," Tim Berry, president and founder of Palo Alto Software, told Inc . "Most of your variable costs are in those direct costs that belong in your sales forecast, but there are also some variable expenses, like ads and rebates and such."

Project your break-even point

Together, your expenses budget and sales forecast paints a picture of your profitability. Your break-even projection is the date at which you believe your business will become profitable — when more money is earned than spent. Very few businesses are profitable overnight or even in their first year. Most businesses take two to three years to be profitable, but others take far longer: Tesla , for instance, took 18 years to see its first full-year profit.

Lenders and investors will be interested in your break-even point as a projection of when they can begin to recoup their investment. Likewise, your CFO or operations manager can make better decisions after measuring the company’s results against its forecasts.

[Read more: ​​ Startup 2021: Writing a Business Plan? Here’s How to Do It, Step by Step ]

Develop a cash flow projection

A cash flow statement (or projection, for a new business) shows the flow of dollars moving in and out of the business. This is based on the sales forecast, your balance sheet and other assumptions you’ve used to create your expenses projection.

“If you are starting a new business and do not have these historical financial statements, you start by projecting a cash-flow statement broken down into 12 months,” wrote Inc . The cash flow statement will include projected cash flows from operating, investing and financing your business activities.

Keep in mind that most business plans involve developing specific financial documents: income statements, pro formas and a balance sheet, for instance. These documents may be required by investors or lenders; financial projections can help inform the development of those statements and guide your business as it grows.

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Financial projections use existing or estimated financial data to forecast your business’s future income and expenses. They often include different scenarios to see how changes to one aspect of your finances (such as higher sales or lower operating expenses) might affect your profitability.

If you need to create financial projections for a startup or existing business, this free, downloadable template includes all the necessary tools.

What Are Financial Projections Used for?

Financial projections are an essential business planning tool for several reasons.

• If you’re starting a business, financial projections help you plan your startup budget, assess when you expect the business to become profitable, and set benchmarks for achieving financial goals.
• If you’re already in business, creating financial projections each year can help you set goals and stay on track.
• When seeking outside financing, startups and existing businesses need financial projections to convince lenders and investors of the business’s growth potential.

What’s Included in Financial Projections?

This financial projections template pulls together several different financial documents, including:

• Startup expenses
• Payroll costs
• Sales forecast
• Operating expenses for the first 3 years of business
• Cash flow statements for the first 3 years of business
• Income statements for the first 3 years of business
• Balance sheet
• Break-even analysis
• Financial ratios
• Cost of goods sold (COGS), and
• Amortization and depreciation for your business.

You can use this template to create the documents from scratch or pull in information from those you’ve already made. The template also includes diagnostic tools to test the numbers in your financial projections and ensure they are within reasonable ranges.

These areas are closely related, so as you work on your financial projections, you’ll find that changes to one element affect the others. You may want to include a best-case and worst-case scenario for all possibilities. Make sure you know the assumptions behind your financial projections and can explain them to others.

Startup business owners often wonder how to create financial projections for a business that doesn’t exist yet. Financial forecasts are continually educated guesses. To make yours as accurate as possible, do your homework and get help. Use the information you unearthed in researching your business plans, such as statistics from industry associations, data from government sources, and financials from similar businesses. An accountant with experience in your industry can help fine-tune your financial projections. So can business advisors such as SCORE mentors.

Once you complete your financial projections, don’t put them away and forget about them. Compare your projections to your financial statements regularly to see how well your business meets your expectations. If your projections turn out to be too optimistic or too pessimistic, make the necessary adjustments to make them more accurate.

*NOTE: The cells with formulas in this workbook are locked. If changes are needed, the unlock code is "1234." Please use caution when unlocking the spreadsheets. If you want to change a formula, we strongly recommend saving a copy of this spreadsheet under a different name before doing so. 

We recommend downloading the Financial Projections template in English or Spanish.

Do you need help creating your financial projections? Take SCORE’s online course on-demand on financial projections or connect with a SCORE mentor  online or in your community today.

Simple Steps for Starting Your Business: Financial Projections In this online module, you'll learn the importance of financial planning, how to build your financial model, how to understand financial statements and more.

Business Planning & Financial Statements Template Gallery Download SCORE’s templates to help you plan for a new business startup or grow your existing business.

Why Projected Financial Statements Are Essential to the Future Success of Startups Financial statements are vital to the success of any company but particularly start-ups. SCORE mentor Sarah Hadjhamou shares why they are a big part of growing your start-up.

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