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Distinguishing Between Inferences and Assumptions

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2.4: Inferences and Assumptions

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Inferences & Assumptions

Learning objectives for "inferences and assumptions" section.

• Differentiate Between Inferences and Assumptions : Understand and clearly distinguish between making inferences and identifying assumptions in various texts, and recognize how each impacts the interpretation and analysis of information.
• Evaluate the Validity of Inferences and Assumptions : Critically assess the strength and validity of inferences and assumptions made by authors, determining whether they are supported by evidence and logical reasoning.
• Apply Critical Thinking Skills to Construct Inferences and Identify Assumptions : Develop the ability to construct well-supported inferences and identify underlying assumptions in your own writing, ensuring clarity and logical consistency in arguments and analyses.
• Connect Inferences and Assumptions to Argumentative Reading and Writing.

Introduction to Inferences and Assumptions

Imagine a photo showing a penguin standing behind a photographer who has his camera pointed in the opposite direction. From this image, we can infer that there is probably a colony of penguins nearby. This inference is based on the fact that the photographer is aimed and ready to capture something in that direction, implying the presence of more penguins. However, we acknowledge the possibility of error—perhaps the photographer is actually focusing on a seal, and the penguin simply wandered into the shot. Nevertheless, making this inference seems reasonable given the evidence at hand.

In this section, we will explore the concepts of inferences and assumptions.

The root of the word "infer" originates from the Latin "inferre," which means to bring or carry. Inferences involve bringing our imagination to connect what we know with what we don’t know, making educated guesses to draw conclusions.

The root of the word "assume" comes from the Latin "assumere," which means to take up. Assumptions involve accepting something without sufficient evidence of its truth. These can be false beliefs, inferences, or conclusions that affect our reasoning. Often, we are unaware when we make assumptions.

Understanding inferences and assumptions is crucial for making stronger arguments in writing and for better analyzing others' arguments. When constructing arguments, three elements are essential:

• Claim/Opinion
• Evidence/Fact
• Analysis/Explanation

These components are vital for developing a well-rounded argument. When analyzing someone else’s argument, we seek to identify their claim, evidence, and analysis. In our evaluation, we aim to determine if their logic is valid. By identifying hidden assumptions within an argument, we can uncover potential flaws in the logic.

In this chapter, we will delve deeper into the differences between inferences and assumptions, their roles in critical thinking, and how to effectively use and identify them in reading and writing.

Inferences and Assumptions

As we start analyzing a claim, it’s important to realize that we all begin this process with certain preconceived ideas and beliefs that can guide or misguide our thinking. Biases and assumptions can influence our thinking. When analyzing a claim, we need to understand the difference between an assumption and an inference we naturally make about the claim being argued.

Inference refers to something we believe to be accurate based on something else we believe to be true. For example, if you email someone and they do not email you back, you may infer that they are mad or upset with you. Inferences can be correct or incorrect interpretations of our environment. They are based on evidence, whereas assumptions have little to no evidence.

Assumption refers to something we already assume or presuppose. As described by Richard Paul and Linda Elder, an assumption is usually something we previously learned and do not question. It is part of our belief system. For instance, if we believe that it is dangerous to walk late at night in big cities and we are staying in Chicago, we will infer that it is dangerous to go for a walk late at night. We take for granted our belief that it is dangerous to walk late at night in big cities. Based on our assumptions, we make inferences that guide our decisions and actions. To ensure these assumptions and inferences are accurate, we need to question them.

Hidden Assumptions

Identifying assumptions that are part of the argument but not explicitly stated is crucial. These are called hidden assumptions, missing assumptions, or suppressed premises. Regardless of the name, these cases involve an argument relying on a claim that it doesn’t state as a premise. There is a claim that must be true for the inference to make sense, but it isn’t explicitly claimed by the argument as written or spoken.

Identifying Hidden Assumptions:

• Identify the Inference or Sub-Inference with the Hidden Assumption : Determine which part of the argument is incomplete.
• Look at the Premises of the Inference and Identify the Terms or Topics Discussed : Each premise typically links two topics.
• Link the Terms That Aren’t Yet Linked : Use imagination and instinct to connect the unlinked terms.
• Write the Assumption That Links the Unlinked Terms : Formulate the hidden assumption.
• Check to Ensure Your Argument Now Works : Ensure there is a logical link between each topic.
• Perform the Negative Test on Your Assumption : If you negate your hidden assumption and the argument makes no sense, then you’ve correctly identified the hidden assumption.

Example Argument:

• Stated Premises : Flowers smell nice. Let’s plant some flowers.
• Hidden Assumption : We should plant things that smell nice.

" Flowers " by Nouhailler is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 .

Without the hidden assumption, the argument doesn’t hold together. Identifying such assumptions helps in understanding and critiquing the argument more effectively.

Another Example:

• Argument : These wildfires are out of control! So global warming is real.
• Hidden Assumption : Global warming is the best explanation for an increase in wildfires.

Inferences and Assumptions Examples

Everyday contexts, example \(\pageindex{1}\), example 1: local agriculture.

Imagine you are a community college student in the Central Valley of California studying agricultural science. You read an article that claims a new pesticide is safe and effective for crops. Given the article’s evidence, you might infer that using this pesticide on your family farm will lead to healthier crops and better yields. However, an assumption you might hold is that all scientific studies funded by agricultural companies are reliable. This assumption could be misguided if the company has a history of biased research. By questioning this assumption and seeking out multiple sources of information, including independent studies, you can make a more informed decision about using the pesticide.

Example 2: Community Safety

Consider a scenario where you hear from several classmates that the local park is unsafe after dark due to recent incidents. You might infer that it’s best to avoid the park at night. However, your assumption might be that all reports of incidents in the park are recent and severe. If you examine crime reports and find that incidents are infrequent and occurred over a long period, you might conclude that the park is safer than initially assumed. This example shows the importance of verifying assumptions and basing inferences on solid evidence to avoid unnecessary fear and misinformation.

By understanding and questioning our inferences and assumptions, we can enhance our critical thinking skills and make more informed decisions in our daily lives.

Practical Application in Reading and Writing

To practice finding assumptions in reading, consider a story like "Desiree’s Baby" by Kate Chopin:

• Identify Major Assumptions : What assumptions shape the plot?
• Support with Evidence : Which characters share these assumptions?
• Make Inferences : What can you infer about characters’ behaviors and realizations?

Connecting Argumentative Reading and Writing to Inferences and Assumptions

Inferences and assumptions are integral to the process of argumentative reading and writing. When engaging in argumentative reading , identifying inferences and assumptions within a text allows students to critically evaluate the strength and validity of the arguments presented. Inferences are conclusions drawn based on evidence and reasoning, while assumptions are underlying beliefs or premises that are taken for granted without explicit evidence. Recognizing these elements helps in assessing whether an argument is logically sound and well-supported.

In argumentative writing , understanding and articulating your own inferences and assumptions enhances the clarity and persuasiveness of your arguments. Making clear inferences based on solid evidence strengthens the logical flow of your writing, while identifying and addressing assumptions ensures that your argument stands up to critical scrutiny. This practice not only improves the quality of your arguments but also demonstrates thoroughness and intellectual rigor, essential traits in academic discourse.

Understanding and identifying inferences and assumptions are crucial skills in critical thinking, reading, and writing. By questioning the hidden assumptions in arguments, you can better analyze the logic and validity of claims, leading to stronger arguments and a deeper understanding of the texts you engage with.

Attributions:

The content above was assisted by ChatGPT in outlining and organizing information. The final material was curated, edited, authored, remixed and arranged through human creativity, originality, and subject expertise of the Coalinga College English Department and the Coalinga College Library Learning Resource Center and is therefore under the CC BY NC SA license when applicable. To see resources on AI and copyright please see the United States Copyright Office 2023 Statement and the following case study on using AI assistance but curating and creating with human originality and creativity.

Images without specific attribution were generated with the assistance of ChatGPT 2024 and are not subject to any copyright restrictions, in accordance with the United States Copyright Office 2023 Statement .

The following content was used in this remixing:

5.2: Assumptions and Inferences is shared under a CC BY-NC 4.0 license and was authored, remixed, and/or curated by Jim Marteney ( ASCCC Open Educational Resources Initiative (OERI) ) .

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5.2: Assumptions and Inferences

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• Jim Marteney
• Los Angeles Valley College via ASCCC Open Educational Resources Initiative (OERI)

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As we start analyzing a claim we need to realize that we all begin this process with certain preconceived ideas and beliefs that can guide or misguide our thinking. Duncan Hines assumed that Japanese families had ovens, like those families in this country. Stated another way, we all have certain biases and assumptions that influence our thinking. When analyzing a claim, we need to understand the difference between an assumption and an inference we naturally make about the claim being argued.

Inference refers to something we believe to be accurate based on something else we believe to be true. If you email someone and they do not email you back, you may infer that they are mad or upset with you. Inferences can be correct interpretations of our environment or incorrect interpretations of our environment.

Assumption refers to something we already assume or presuppose. As described by Richard Paul and Linda Edler.

“Usually it is something we previously learned and do not question. It is part of our system of beliefs. We assume our beliefs to be true and use them to interpret the world about us. If we believe that it is dangerous to walk late at night in big cities and we are staying in Chicago, we will infer that it is dangerous to go for a walk late at night. We take for granted our belief that it is dangerous to walk late at night in big cities.” (Paul)

Based on our assumptions, we make inferences that guide our decisions and actions. To make sure these assumptions and inferences are accurate, we need to question them.

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TIP Sheet INFERENCES

We all make inferences; that is, we draw conclusions by using information to create new information. When you make an inference, you connect the dots from the known to the unknown, from the stated to the unstated. An inference is a logical conclusion based on an analysis of objects, sensations, events, facts, and ideas that seems likely in light of what is known. We can reach factual, that is, verifiable, inferences from factual information. For example, given the following facts, the conclusions are logical:

Fact: A lion can run 50 miles per hour. Fact: A cheetah can run faster than a lion. Conclusion: A cheetah can run faster than 50 miles per hour.

We reach non-factual inferences based on non-factual, even non-verbal, information, such as facial express and body language.

Active reading, listening, and note taking require us to make inferences, which are partly based on information the author or speaker has not supplied. To improve our ability to make valid inferences, it helps to understand the following:

our background knowledge affects our inferences our assumptions affect our inferences we draw inferences even from implied facts, implications connotation creates implications

Background knowledge College textbook authors expect you to have a certain amount of background knowledge–knowledge about people, history, arts, sciences, mathematics, and current events, for example–to draw meaningful inferences as you read. Students whose prior reading and breadth of experience have been limited find it more difficult to use textbooks and classroom instruction to reach valid conclusions. We acquire our background knowledge by reading, talking to people, traveling, watching the news, learning job skills–in fact, everything we have seen and done contributes to our background knowledge.

Inferences are everyday events. Suppose early one Friday morning you see your neighbor load a suitcase into his car. You infer he is going on a trip, and not a long one, either, with just that one suitcase. Later, at 11:30 a.m., you notice it has started to rain. You infer that the noon school picnic will be canceled. In each case, you do not know for sure, but your conclusion is based on what you observe and on your background knowledge. Depending on what facts you know, you could draw other inferences. For example, if you know the picnic area is covered, you may infer that the picnic will take place as planned despite the rain. Likewise, there may be another explanation for the suitcase-perhaps your neighbor is taking it out to be repaired. Maybe he has decided to use it to store his jumper cables and flashlight. Regardless, your inference at least is logical in light of what you do know.

Assumptions It is an important part of developing critical thinking skills to distinguish our inferences, or conclusions, both from the raw facts and from our assumptions. Assumptions are the unstated and frequently unexamined beliefs we take for granted–that we ourselves, and most other people we know, will not gladly picnic on wet grass, for example. But it is possible for someone, somewhere, to hold a different view–that picnicking in the rain is quirky and fun. A frequent reason for disagreements between people who hold different opinions is that the people began with different assumptions.

For example, suppose Phong assumes that a capitalistic market society strengthens a democracy and leads to innovative solutions to social problems. He brings that underlying belief to bear on everyday matters, such as the price of textbooks in the student bookstore. Phong does not complain about the high price of his textbooks because he feels (a little vaguely, perhaps) it would be un-American; instead, he cheerfully cancels his cable subscription and puts the money he saves toward purchasing books. On the other hand, Karla assumes that capitalism weakens America, quashing innovation and impoverishing the greater part of society for the benefit of a rich and powerful few. Karla buys her textbooks because she must, but she is bitter and feels that the textbook producers are not acting like real Americans–in fact, she suspects they are not Americans at all, but some kind of supra-national cabal systematically preying on students and the intelligentsia. (See the TIP Sheet " Conspiracy Theories .")

Their different assumptions about the value of capitalism and what it means to be a "real" American lead Phong and Karla to different conclusions. Phong and Karla may have examined their assumptions and consciously affirmed them, but it's far likelier they have not. Therefore, neither Phong nor Karla can understand the other's attitude about buying textbooks: Why is he so passive, fumes Karla. Why is she so angry, wonders Phong. Their misunderstanding will probably continue until they realize they have different assumptions and discuss that.

Implications Not all inferences are based on facts. We often make inferences based on a best guess or on implications. When a statement is only suggested or hinted at, it is an implication . We draw inferences and reach conclusions from implications just as we do from direct statements. The problem with drawing conclusions from implications is that the language of implications is slippery, sometimes intentionally so.

This can lead to shaky conclusions. Political mud-slinging is often based on implications constructed using misleading language that, in a pinch, can be disavowed ("I never said that!"). It is especially important to examine any inference based on implication; it may well be faulty, since the authors of implications tend to be selective about which facts to include and often use language chosen for "loaded" connotations.

(See the TIP Sheet " Deductive, Inductive, & Abductive Reasoning " for more information on "best guess" reasoning.)

Connotations One of the reasons we can make implications is that words have connotation . Denotation is the dictionary meaning of a word. Connotation is its "color" or emotional feel. Some words have negative connotations, some positive. Would you rather be called sensitive or touchy ? Liberal or progressive? Religious or spiritual ? We interpret connotation unconsciously, making inferences about both the author and material based partly on the "color" of the words.

Connotation is largely cultural. Students new to English, or students who lack background knowledge, often find it difficult to accurately sense connotations. Students whose range of vocabulary is limited also have a more difficult time "reading" connotation. Connotation can also vary among groups within a society. For example, to Karla's group, above, the word profit carried negative connotations, and to Phong's group, positive. (This is why, in polarized political issues for example, the statements of one group can sound so nonsensical–or even sinister-to the other group: the connotations of political messages are "colored" for particular audiences.)

Your awareness of these factors that enable–or constrain–your ability to draw valid inferences can help you begin to read beyond the words. The result will be greater empathy for the ideas of others and greater comprehension of complex topics.

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Critical Reasoning: Inference vs Conclusion

Let us understand with the help of an example:

• He put his skateboard down and got ready.
• His palms were sweaty.
• He looked down the ramp.
• He could do it.
• Basics of Critical Reasoning
• Argument Questions
• Inference Questions
• Inference Vs. Conclusion
• Para Completion
• Paradox Questions
• Summary Based Questions
• CR Practice Exercise
• Facts, Inferences & Judgements
• Strong & Weak Arguments
• Conclusion Questions
• Conclusions Practice Exercise
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• He is probably not going down.
• He is probably going to get on his skateboard and go down the ramp.
• He is probably going to look at his friends and ask them what to do.
• He is probably going to fix his skateboard.
• Grammar: Concepts and Rules
• Sentence Correction: Concepts and Rules
• Verbal Reasoning: Concepts and Practice
• Reading Comprehension: Concepts and Strategies
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• Critical Reasoning: Concepts and Practice

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Everything about Nouns

Grammar Basics: Interjections

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Reading Comprehension: Basic Concepts

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• Choosing Effective Vocabulary
• How to Fill a Page (When You Have Nothing to Say)
• Resources – Books
• Critical Thinking and Reading Skills
• Key Terms and the Inference Continuum
• Bad Inferences – Fallacies and Biases
• Application: Inferences and History
• An Aside: Strong Inferences vs. Ghosts
• Eight Types of Evidence – Strengths and Weaknesses
• Bad Evidence – Fallacies and Poor Appeals
• Value Conflicts and Key Terms
• Tragic Application of Values
• Common Value Systems
• Fallacies and a Few Fun Techniques
• Donna Hicks’s Essential Elements of Dignity
• Fundamental Needs
• Mapping Classroom Culture – Support and Humiliation
• The Dignity Pledge
• Separation and Segregation
• Stripping Away Resources and Protections
• Violence and Intimidation
• Murder and Elimination
• Toxic Mythologies and Deep Narratives
• Scapegoating and Conspiracy Theories
• Caricature and Stereotypes
• Denial and Willful Ignorance
• Conclusion and FAQs

The pages below offer an introduction and exploration of inferences, a.k.a. educated guesses. Using this vocabulary in the classroom allows students to explore a larger world of causation and prediction. They can then apply this power to literary, historical, and scientific claims and questions.

The program offered here is an attempt to teach students how to generate and analyze inferences and how to avoid relying on weak inferences when strong inferences are available.

Benefits of teaching inferences and related skills explicitly: 

1. It requires students to “zoom out,” to move beyond their initial intuitions or past impressions, and to search for a wide variety of causal explanations .

2. It reinforces the uncertainties of historical, literary, and scientific inquiry and opens the door to understanding biases and fallacies, quality and quantity of evidence, and other practical limitations.

3. It allows students to question openly without fear of getting “the right answer,” or trying to guess what’s in the teacher’s head.

4. It underscores the importance of understanding the underlying mechanisms and engines of history, e.g. Economics, Government, Social Groups, Religion, etc. and various analytic lenses of literature.

1. Key Skills and the Inference Continuum

2. Bad Inferences: Fallacies and Biases

3. Application: Inferences and History

Summary Points:

1. The ability to generate and evaluate inferences, both weak and strong, is a crucial skill and measure of intelligence. A vocabulary of inferences helps students increase both the quality and quantity of the inferences they generate, and allows them to measure the relative strengths and weaknesses of a given inference.

2. Like any skill, these abilities are plastic and current ability is simply a reflection of a student’s experience, prior knowledge, and practice.

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